Cash Out Sports Picks endorsed the Red Sox money line against Washington. Garrett Crochet just finished an undefeated June (4-0, 2.90 ERA), whereas the Nationals will debut rookie Shinosuke Ogasawara, placing immediate strain on MLB’s worst bullpen (6.71 ERA over the past two weeks). Boston’s lineup has been red-hot, averaging 7.2 runs over its last five, and the Sox have taken the last three meetings between the clubs. The tout called it tough to trust Washington’s untested starter and shaky relief corps, giving Boston a clear edge.

Bill Harrelson said Trevor Story is a strong play for more than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs tonight against Washington. Story has cleared this number in seven straight outings and in eight of his last ten overall, including an 11-H/R/RBI explosion in Game 1 of the series and two more in Game 2. Harrelson highlighted that Story is seeing roughly four plate appearances per game and now faces a left-handed starter, a split where Story is batting .272 in 85 PA compared to his .252 season average. Even though Story’s full-season hit rate on this prop is only 49 %, Harrelson wants to keep riding the ‘generational heater’ (14-for-20, 70 % recent hit rate) while the matchup and platoon advantage remain intact.

It’s The Final Round said Trevor Story is a must-target for at least one hit (and he personally plans to ladder into the Hits+Runs+RBIs market) in Sunday’s 1:35 p.m. game against Washington. The case hinges on three data points: (1) Story’s current heater—14 hits in his last seven games for a .500 average with two homers, 10 RBI and eight runs; (2) his superior performance in day games, batting .289 in early starts; and (3) a cake matchup with left-hander Shintaro Fujinami-like prospect Sinosaki Ogan Sawara, who is making his MLB debut after being rushed through the minors where he allowed a .271 average overall and the same .271 clip specifically to right-handed hitters. Jordan framed the rookie as overmatched and expects Boston’s surging lineup to pounce, making a simple ‘to record a hit’ prop—or an HRR combo—an actionable play.

Lonte Smith suggested taking a shot on a CJ Abrams home-run prop against Walker Buehler. Abrams rides a seven-game hitting streak and has already matched last year’s homer total despite playing half his games in pitcher-friendly Nationals Park. Buehler, meanwhile, has given up 10 long balls in his last three starts and sports a bloated 6.15 xERA. With Saturday’s total sitting at 9.5 and Smith predicting another offensive outburst, he likes Abrams at 5/1 or better to take advantage of Buehler’s 2.3 HR/9 road figure and the short porches in Washington.

Scott Reichel made Over 9.5 his lock, projecting a slugfest in Boston-Washington because Walker Buehler looks broken and Mitchell Parker is trending the wrong way. Buehler has failed to complete five innings in three straight outings and has been tagged for 24 earned runs, 10 homers and 14 walks in that span, good for a 2.3 HR/9 road split. Parker has allowed 12 earned over his last two starts and owns a 5.08 ERA since June 1. Reichel noted Boston has scored five-plus runs in three of its last four games (11 or more twice) while Washington’s offense ranks top-10 in hard-hit rate this month. With both bullpens sitting bottom-third in ERA since the All-Star break, he will play any total 10 or lower and expects something like 7-5.

Lonte Smith views Washington as a live underdog and loves the full-game Over because Walker Buehler’s numbers have cratered. Buehler hasn’t cleared four innings in his last three starts and has surrendered 4+ earned runs in five of six. On the road his last three turns: 24 ER, 10 homers allowed, and 14 walks. Smith believes any Nationals lineup that features CJ Abrams and Lane Thomas can punish that level of wildness, and starter Mitchell Parker has been serviceable enough (3.69 home ERA) to keep them in front. He is waiting for a plus-money tag on Washington but will fire as long as the Nats are no worse than -105 and will pair it with the Over 9.5.

The tout grabbed Nationals moneyline. Boston is just 18-25 away from Fenway and Walker Buehler’s first year in Beantown has imploded: 6.45 ERA and 1.58 WHIP overall, 11.07 ERA in June, plus 10 homers surrendered over his last seven starts. Washington counters with lefty Mitchell Parker, steady at Nationals Park when he limits free passes, and takes aim at a Red Sox lineup weakened since trading Rafael Devers. With Boston’s inconsistency and MLB’s worst bullpen lurking, he sees value on the home dog.

Bill Harrelson said he is backing Trevor Story to go over 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs on Saturday against the Nationals. Story is scorching, clearing this line in six straight and 8 of his last 10 games, highlighted by yesterday’s 4-hit, 3-run, 4-RBI explosion. Over that six-game heater he is averaging five H+R+RBI and has cashed 13 of his last 20 (65%). Books are leaning the same direction—DraftKings lists the over at –135, Hard Rock at –130, while Fliff and Sleeper are shaded to the over. Harrelson also noted a favorable platoon split: Story is batting .263 in 84 plate appearances versus left-handed pitching compared to .244 in 344 PA overall. Riding the hot hand, the advantageous split, and supportive market odds, Harrelson expects Story to eclipse 1.5 H+R+RBI again.

B Wade played CJ Abrams over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs, calling him a "national icon" who is "feeding families." Abrams has repeatedly cleared this combo prop, even in low-scoring games; Wade noted that in a two-run outing he still delivered a hit and scored a run. Abrams has been collecting at least two combined HRR most nights, and with Walker Buehler giving up an average of five runs in his last five starts, Wade expects plenty of scoring opportunities. The pick is correlated with Buehler’s earned-runs over, banking on Abrams to be a primary beneficiary of another Buehler blowup.

B Wade expects Walker Buehler to allow at least three earned runs, recommending the over 2.5 earned-runs prop. Buehler has been "absolutely cooked" in six consecutive outings, giving up 3+ earned each time and averaging five earned runs across his last five starts. Wade highlighted the young, aggressive Washington lineup featuring CJ Abrams and James Wood as another tough matchup. Given Buehler’s ongoing struggles and the Nationals’ up-and-coming bats, Wade projects another rough start and a minimum of three earned runs.