Chirimbes laid the 3.5 with Denver, projecting a 31-27 victory to extend the Broncos’ perfect 3-0 home record. He reviewed Denver’s knack for comeback wins—rallies from 19-0, 17-3 and a last-minute defensive stand in London—as evidence of resilience. While Dak Prescott’s 16-3 TD/INT ratio scares him, he pointed out Dallas ranks 30th in scoring defense (29.4 PPG) and is just 1-3 on the road, making Mile-High altitude and recent form decisive factors.

Mock noted that once his play-by-play model corrects for opponent strength and strips out garbage-time noise, Denver grades out three points better than Dallas in Week 8. That output produces a full 3-point spread in favor of the Broncos on their home field, making Denver the side his projections endorse for bettors.

Joyner broke down Dallas’s stark split: 3-0-1 when scoring 37+ points, 0-3 below that number. Denver has held foes to 23 or fewer five times and 17 or fewer four times, making a shootout unlikely. That leaves the Cowboys without a viable path, so Joyner locked in Broncos –3 with a confidence level 2.

Dabbundo argued Denver should not be laying 3.5 when the Broncos routinely play offense for only one quarter and have already needed late comebacks to beat the Eagles and Giants. He pointed out that Denver’s elite defensive numbers are inflated by a soft schedule (Titans with a rookie QB, Jets, Bengals with Jake Browning, the erratic Eagles). Against the only two consistent offenses they faced, L.A. and Indianapolis, the Broncos allowed 29 first downs/23 points and 29 points, respectively. Conversely, Dallas brings an "elite quarterback versus man and blitz" in Dak Prescott, who finally has every skill player healthy. Dabbundo believes the spread should be no more than a field goal and is happy to back the clearly superior quarterback and offense as a dog. Verdict: Bet Cowboys +3.5.

Hill is on Cowboys +3.5. He cited DVOA, which grades Dallas ninth and Denver 14th, and reminded readers that Bo Nix is just 2-8 when his defense allows 20-plus points. Hill expects the Cowboys’ explosive offense to force that script and cover in Denver.

Seth Walder grabbed Dak Prescott at 25-1 for MVP after Dallas’ offense shredded Washington to push Prescott to No. 1 in QBR. Walder reminded readers that Prescott finished second in QBR the last full season he played (2023) and now leads less-proven names Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold in the metric. He emphasized the award’s narrative component: Dallas traded away an elite defender, its defense is fragile, and Prescott’s heroics would be the storyline if the Cowboys (28% playoff odds per FPI) reach the postseason. A porous defense also promises plenty of shootouts, giving Prescott a runway for gaudy stats the rest of the way.

After Denver’s miraculous 33-32 comeback versus the Giants, Tuley sensed market inflation on the Broncos. He considered Dallas +3.5 outright but designated the Cowboys as an afternoon teaser anchor, moving them to +9/+9.5. Tuley pointed out that Denver was thoroughly outplayed for three quarters and that Dak Prescott’s offense can trade scores, making the teased spread far more comfortable.