Steve Makinen advised grabbing Tennessee +4.5 at home. His power ratings make the game Colts –2.8, far from the posted number. Since 2008, 2-0 teams that have outscored opponents by 25+ points are just 18-31-2 ATS in Week 3. DraftKings reports 71 % of handle on Indianapolis and majority-handle favorites in divisional games have gone 117-148 ATS (44.2 %) the last three seasons. Tennessee is 21-12 SU/21-11 ATS off a home loss since 2015, and first-year starter Cam Ward has protected the ball well. Makinen expects a close divisional slugfest and wants the points with the Titans.

Everett laid 3.5 with Indianapolis after the Colts shredded Denver for 316 passing yards and 167 rushing. He now takes Shane Steichen’s offense seriously and doubts Tennessee—quarterbacked by the inconsistent Cam Ward—can keep pace. Everett envisions Indy jumping ahead early, forcing the Titans to abandon their ground game and play into Gus Bradley’s soft zone, setting up a comfortable Colts cover.

Leaver’s 10,000-run simulation makes the Colts a 63% straight-up favorite in Nashville. He framed Tennessee’s 37% upset chance as too thin to chase plus money and recommended leaning on Indy in survivor pools.

Bender recommended Indianapolis –3 on the road, noting three early-season pillars: Jonathan Taylor’s league-best 236 rushing yards, Daniel Jones’ 71.4% completion rate, and a +4 turnover margin. On the other sideline rookie Cam Ward has already been sacked 11 times, a bad recipe against a Colts front that has won seven of its last eight trips to Tennessee. Bender’s final score call of 21-16 gives Indy a full TD of cushion on the spread.

Richard Janvrin recommended taking Calvin Ridley Over 49.5 (50+) receiving yards at -128 against Indianapolis. Ridley leads Tennessee with a 25% target share, runs routes on 92% of dropbacks, and sees a league-top 33.3% of Titans targets versus zone. The Colts sit in zone on 70% of snaps and play Cover 3 on 39.7%, a look against which Ridley has run 24 routes, catching 3-of-5 for 57 yards already this season. Indianapolis’ Lou Anarumo–designed Cover 3 has allowed opposing QBs to complete 74.1% of passes (20-of-27) for 204 yards while forcing three picks, suggesting volume is available. The Colts’ pass rush ranks second-worst with only 12 pressures, giving rookie QB Cam Ward more time; Ward already looks to Ridley most when under duress (five targets). Ridley also owns a 28.6% share of the team’s 20-plus-yard receptions and is averaging 12.0 yards per catch overall, 13.4 versus zone, and 19.0 in Week 2. After opening against two top-eight pass-rush units, this softer matchup plus Ridley’s route mix (12 go routes, 10 hitch/out/post) aligns with the Colts’ defensive weaknesses—they have surrendered six catches on 11 targets for 65 yards and a TD on out routes alone. Janvrin expects Ridley, still effective after the catch despite being in his thirties, to surpass the 50-yard mark comfortably.

Sobleski laid the field goal with Indianapolis, arguing Lou Anarumo’s scheme will have Tennessee rookie Cam Ward ‘spinning.’ He expects Indy to flood the quarterback’s sight-lines with disguised coverage, forcing mistakes much the way Anarumo has rattled young passers in Cincinnati and now Indy. On the other side, Daniel Jones leads an offense that’s already produced back-to-back wins and has ‘more than enough firepower’ to cash in Ward’s turnovers. Sobleski views this as a terrible matchup for an already 0-2 Titans club, projecting a comfortable Colts cover and 3-0 start.

Referencing ESPN’s betting preview, Giannotto pointed out that Daniel Jones owns the NFL’s sixth-best QBR (80.9) while completing 71.4% of his passes through two weeks. Pair that efficiency with Jonathan Taylor’s 5.6 yards per rush and a Colts offense ranking third in early-down success rate, and he is comfortable laying -3.5 against a Titans team whose pass rush has generated pressure on just 22% of dropbacks. Giannotto predicts Indianapolis reaches 3-0 and keeps Jones firmly in play for over 1.5 passing TD props.

Michael Fiddle argued that Shane Steichen "should be atop the board for Coach of the Year" now that Indianapolis is averaging 31 points per game and leading the league in expected points added per play. He called the Colts "the real deal" after their fast offensive start and suggested bettors consider Steichen’s award odds before sportsbooks fully adjust to Indianapolis’ efficiency spike.

Rathburn flagged the Titans-Colts spread as the biggest flip of Week 3: Tennessee opened ‑1.5 but now sits +3.0. He called it a potential “trap/over-reaction” spot, noting no major injury justifies a four-and-a-half-point swing through the key number of 3. The Titans’ front four still owns a top-five pressure rate, which could wreak havoc on an Indy line that surrendered 11 QB hits in Week 2. With a projected run-heavy script keeping possessions down, Rathburn likes grabbing the field goal (and hook if it appears) with a Titans team he believes remains fundamentally equal to the Colts.

Ross Kelly relayed that the SportsLine model is bullish on Indianapolis -3.5 and the Over 43.5 in Nashville, with the Colts covering well over 50% of simulations and the total clearing nearly 70% of the time. Daniel Jones has sparked a historic start for Indy: no punts through two games and top-four ranks in points, yards, rushing and passing offense. Tennessee, meanwhile, has looked like a bottom-tier team. Top pick Cam Ward has already been sacked a league-high 11 times, the Titans have scored just one touchdown, and they sit 31st in points per game. The model projects at least three more sacks and a turnover from Ward, paving the way for an Indy cover and a high-scoring script.

Mason Cameron recommended grabbing Indianapolis -3 before the number climbs, pointing to a bundle of data that screams early-season outlier. The Colts are the first team in league history to score on each of their first 10 drives and have yet to punt through two weeks under Shane Steichen’s turbo-charged, fourth-down-friendly script. Quarterback Daniel Jones is playing point guard to perfection, ranking 19th in average depth of target (8.5 yards) while keeping 53% of his throws short of the sticks, a ball-control profile that has produced points without turnovers. Tennessee’s defense looks like the perfect foil: bottom-10 in the share of snaps allowing positive EPA and fresh off a Week 2 performance that ranked 25th in EPA per play allowed to the Rams. With the Titans showing no pass-rush pulse and Indianapolis converting drives at a historic clip, Cameron believes the market will push this to at least -4 by kickoff and wants bettors in early at the key -3.