Martin is willing to lay up to –150 on Arizona with Eduardo Rodriguez toeing the rubber. A recent FanGraphs piece detailed mechanical tweaks that helped E-Rod post six shutout innings and 10 strikeouts last time out. On the other side, Cal Quantrill has failed to escape the fourth in each of his last two starts, taxing Miami’s pen. Although the Marlins just swept San Francisco, Martin trusts the improved version of Rodriguez and the D-backs’ home field to carry the day if bettors can keep the price in the mid-minus-100s.

Scott Reichel grabbed the Marlins moneyline at +130, arguing that Sandy Alcantara’s turnaround has gone under the radar while Brandon Pfaadt has fallen apart. Alcantara opened 2025 with three ugly outings but has surrendered only seven earned runs across his last four starts (1.88 ERA) and is back to averaging 97 mph with the sinker. By contrast, Pfaadt has been torched for 22 earned in 18 frames over his past five turns, allowing opponents to slash .347/.402/.583. Reichel added that Arizona’s lineup is still missing Corbin Carroll and ranks 24th in wRC+ this month, whereas Miami quietly owns a top-10 OBP since June 1. With the starting-pitching edge, a fresher bullpen after Thursday’s off-day, and plus money attached, Reichel called the Fish “live to steal the opener in the desert.”

Kenny G said the Diamondbacks are worth the –145 moneyline because the matchup tilts overwhelmingly toward Arizona’s bats. Sandy Alcantara may have steadied the ship over his last few turns, but he still totes a 6.69 ERA and a 4.36-ERA bullpen behind him. Kenny pointed to Arizona’s elite offense—3rd in runs, 3rd in OBP, 6th in batting average (.255)—as the unit most likely to decide the game, especially against a Miami staff that ranks 23rd in bullpen ERA. Brandon Pfaadt is no ace (5.49 ERA), yet Kenny reminded listeners he dominated the Marlins back in April and owns two solid outings in his last three. The D-backs are 20-18 at Chase Field, while Miami is just 17-21 on the road. Even with Arizona’s own 5.13 bullpen ERA, Kenny expects their lineup to build a cushion and cruise to a comfortable win, making the moderate juice palatable.

Drew Martin recommended grabbing Miami at +130 because the Fish hold edges across the board. Sandy Alcantara has quietly rattled off four straight quality outings and looked dominant the last time he faced Arizona, posting a 9-to-0 K/BB line. Miami’s bullpen has steadied after a rough April, while Brandon Pfaadt is moving in the opposite direction with an 11-plus ERA over his last five turns (31 hits in 18 innings). Martin also noted Arizona’s cupcake schedule (Rockies, White Sox, Marlins) has not translated into wins, underscoring that current form, starting pitching, and late-inning relief all favor Miami at a plus price.

Eric Lindquist said bettors should ride Merrill Kelly props on Friday, singling out the UNDER 2.5 earned-runs line as the cleanest angle. Kelly owns a 25% strikeout rate, mixes six pitches, and carries a 45.1% hard-hit rate that Lindquist believes will play down with Chase Field’s roof closed. Miami just popped for 12 runs in San Francisco, but Lindquist called that a clear outlier; the current Marlins order, minus recently demoted Matt Mervis, features limited punch outside of Jazz Chisholm and September call-up Dane Myers, and still strikes out enough for Kelly to work deep. He projects six to seven innings, five to seven Ks, and no more than two runs, arguing the 5.5-K over will be too juiced and the 17.5-outs prop will approach –200. At roughly –140, the earned-runs under gives the best risk-reward profile for backing Kelly’s strong matchup.

B Wade Picks hammered Merrill Kelly over 5.5 strikeouts, warning the line “will bump” before first pitch. Kelly has eclipsed the number in nine straight outings and earlier this season fanned nine Marlins when his K rate was much lower. With the veteran right-hander now in peak form and facing a Miami lineup that owns the league’s third-highest strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching, Wade expects another 6+ punchouts and sees value in grabbing the prop before it moves.