Bettor Mark made the Cubs his first official wager, grabbing the +100 money-line at Wrigley. He acknowledged Logan Gilbert’s solid surface numbers (3.84 ERA, 4-2 record) but argued the right-hander’s 43% hard-hit rate and 90.4 mph average exit velocity leave him vulnerable in day-game conditions with a slight breeze out to left. Chicago’s lineup has a .351 OBP versus four-seamers – Gilbert’s most-used pitch – and the Cubs’ bullpen (3.35 ERA last 30 days) has dramatically out-performed Seattle’s late-inning group. Mark believes the Cubs "should be favored" and pegs the contest as a seventh-inning squeaker, making the even-money price a value buy.

Ron grabbed Seattle on the moneyline, backing Logan Gilbert’s elite swing-and-miss profile—54 strikeouts in just 35.1 innings this year and 10 Ks over five frames in his first outing off the IL. Hitter-friendly weather at Wrigley could magnify his occasional homer problems, but Ron trusts the overall stuff, especially compared with Colin Rea’s low strikeout rate and looming regression. With the Mariners sporting the stronger bullpen and lineup upside, Romanelli expects Seattle to push Rea early and let Gilbert’s punch-outs carry the day.

Eric Lindquist circled Pete Crow-Armstrong at +650 to go deep Friday. He noted that first-pitch weather in Seattle projects as one of the slate’s better hitting environments and that George Kirby’s 27.3 % K-rate is a bit misleading because it was inflated by one dominant start against the right-hand–heavy Angels. Lindquist expects more balls in play versus the left-handed Cubs prospect and pointed to Kirby’s spike in barrels allowed (15 % over his last three outings) as proof the contact is becoming dangerous. Given PCA’s plus raw power and the juicy number, Lindquist feels the home-run prop is worth a stab for bettors hunting long-shot bombs.

Scott Reichel is laying the moneyline with Chicago. His main angle is George Kirby’s workload – outside of one 14-strikeout outlier, Kirby has been capped at five innings, which forces Seattle to string together bullpen frames against a Cubs lineup that is markedly better at Wrigley. Reichel likes that Matthew Boyd has quietly put up a 2.79 ERA overall and 2.25 at home, giving Chicago the better pitching combo. With Seattle five-plus games back of the division and reeling, he’ll take the Cubs as long as the price doesn’t balloon past a modest favorite.

Malcolm Bamford said he would play the full-game under in Friday’s Wrigley matinee. He trusts both starters, noting George Kirby has finally rounded into form with a 3.18 ERA in three June outings – all three finished below the total – while Matthew Boyd owns a 2.79 season ERA and an even better 2.25 mark in Chicago. Bamford added that Seattle’s offense has looked lifeless of late and that typical getaway-day bullpen shuffling plus potential Midwest wind should help keep runs down. He expects the number to open around 7.5 and wants the under anywhere seven or higher.

Drew Martin said George Kirby’s underlying metrics scream buy low and make Seattle a live first-five dog at +105. Although Kirby’s season ERA still sits north of 5.00, Martin highlighted the 27-year-old’s turn over the last three outings: 19 strikeouts against only 7 hits allowed and noticeably sharper command. Seattle also had Thursday off, giving its everyday bats a rest before the early Wrigley matinee. On the other side, 34-year-old lefty Matthew Boyd owns the prettier surface ERA (sub-3.00) but has seen both velocity and strikeout rate dip in his last two appearances. Because Chicago’s bullpen grades better, Martin limited exposure to the first five innings, confident Kirby can win the initial matchup while the Cubs’ late-inning edge never comes into play.

Kenny G backed the Cubs at roughly –130 to beat Seattle. He noted the Mariners’ lineup has cooled off badly – 19th in batting average, 16th in slugging and only 1-8-0-6 runs over their last four – while their bullpen ERA is inching toward disaster territory. George Kirby is just two starts removed from the IL and owns a 1-3 record with a 5.96 ERA, making a double-digit strikeout repeat unlikely. Chicago counters with Matthew Boyd, who is 6-3 with a 2.79 ERA and has surrendered only four total earned runs in his last four outings. The Cubs’ bullpen ranks fourth in MLB with a 3.19 ERA, their offense sits second in runs scored and sixth in average, and they are 24-11 at Wrigley. With Seattle struggling and Chicago 45-29 overall, Kenny expects the Cubs to bounce back and cash the moneyline, leaning slightly to the under 9.5 as well.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended taking the Mariners money-line in the series opener at Wrigley. The tout pointed to three concrete angles. First, Seattle is coming in off a day of rest while Chicago emptied the tank in a wild 8-7 loss to Milwaukee, so the entire Mariners bullpen is live. Second, George Kirby is rounding into form; after a delayed start he has cut his ERA to 3.48 and, once he reins in an uncharacteristic 8.1% walk rate, his elite command profile should dominate. Third, Matthew Boyd’s shiny 2.79 ERA is viewed as smoke-and-mirrors: he is allowing 1.46 HR/9, the wind is forecast to blow out to right, and six Seattle hitters project to have the platoon edge from the left side. With the Cubs’ lineup ice-cold at 3.6 runs per game over their last five, the tout felt the plus-money Mariners offered clear value.