Kenny G leaned to Detroit at -110 in Sunday’s finale despite Seattle hanging 27 runs in the first two games. He expects the 59-37 Tigers to avoid a three-game sweep behind Jack Flaherty, who struck out eight and allowed just two runs over 6.1 innings in his last start. Flaherty hasn’t faced the Mariners yet, giving him an element of surprise, and the Tigers are 32-17 at Comerica. Logan Gilbert is still shaking off rust after an IL stint; he was tagged for five runs by the Yankees and sports a 3.88 ERA that Kenny fears could inflate versus a right-heavy Detroit lineup. Seattle’s bullpen (3.74 ERA) is solid, but the Tigers’ pen issues (4.06 ERA, several arms banged up) are already baked into the price, according to Kenny. He noted the Mariners are 30-18-1 to the over on the road, suggesting some regression from their suddenly red-hot bats, while Detroit’s offense has been a steady 4-5 runs most nights. In a true coin-flip, Kenny prefers the home side and a potential bounce-back from Flaherty.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Tigers on the moneyline, laying out a clear pitching and situational edge. He noted Detroit has ridden a strong first-half surge to the top of the AL Central and expects a bounce-back after a lopsided loss in the opener. Jack Flaherty shook off a brutal June and, over his last two outings, has conceded only 5 earned runs across 11.1 innings while piling up 17 strikeouts. Logan Gilbert, meanwhile, is reeling: 14 runs allowed in his last four starts, a 6.20 ERA and five homers over 20.1 innings, plus a poor road résumé and shaky history versus Detroit’s hitters. Seattle’s bats can erupt, but the capper trusts Flaherty to limit damage while Detroit’s lineup capitalizes on Gilbert’s slide, making the Tigers ML the preferred play.

B Wade backed Riley Greene to eclipse 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs again against Seattle. Greene has cleared that mark in every meeting with the Mariners this season, logging at least three combined H/R/R each time. He owns a .444 average (4-for-9) off Sunday starter Logan Gilbert and bats over .300 versus right-handed pitching overall. Gilbert has not looked the same since returning from the IL, surrendering 2, 4, 4, 1 and 5 earned runs in five starts while allowing more hits per inning than pre-injury. After going over the prop in four of his last six games and with these matchup edges, Wade called Greene’s 1.5 line too low.

Matt Perrault recommended jumping on the Tigers -1.5 at a juicy +175 with Casey Mize hosting George Kirby and the Mariners. Detroit has won four straight with Mize starting, covering the run line in three, while the right-hander boasts a pristine 5-0 record and 2.00 ERA at Comerica Park. In those four outings he’s allowed just two, one, and two earned runs. Seattle counters with Kirby, who carries a 4.98 road ERA, and the Mariners have dropped every Kirby loss by multiple runs. Even after Seattle’s 12-3 series-opening win, Perrault trusts Mize’s form and Detroit’s trend of winning big to justify the +175 price.

The host grabbed Detroit on the moneyline, citing the Tigers’ status as the league’s best record and all-around balance. Casey Mize owns a 2.00 ERA at home and Detroit has won four straight Mize starts. Seattle’s bats have sputtered (.229 AVG vs AL Central, fifth-fewest doubles, 13th in overall average). Meanwhile Detroit ranks sixth in runs scored and hits .256 in Comerica. With Mize in ‘prime form’ and the lineup clicking, he expects the Tigers to ‘shut down Seattle’s hopes completely.’

Brad Francis said to grab the Tigers money line because the spot lines up perfectly. Seattle has dropped five straight games when listed as an underdog immediately after a win, a trend Francis trusts. Meanwhile Detroit has been "a juggernaut at home" and one of his most profitable sides all season in this 7-pick format. With those home/road splits and the Mariners’ post-win let-down streak both pointing the same way, Francis is willing to run it back with Detroit despite Friday’s blow-out loss.

Joey Pisapia liked Seattle’s team-total over 4.5 runs at –122, calling Yankee Stadium “the itty-bitty ballpark” and predicting Marcus Stroman will struggle to keep the ball in the yard. Pisapia expects at least five, and possibly six or seven, Mariners runs because the short porches amplify every hard contact against the pitch-to-contact right-hander.

Jay Yang singled out Cal Raleigh as a strong DFS and prop option Friday because of his track record against left-hander Tarik Skubal. Raleigh went 1-for-3 with a solo homer and two RBIs off Skubal on August 7, 2024, and logged another hit against him on April 2, 2025. Yang believes Raleigh sees Skubal’s fastball-slider mix well and gives Seattle a key edge in a game featuring two All-Star caliber players. Expecting Raleigh to register multiple quality at-bats and at least one extra-base hit, Yang recommends considering Raleigh in DFS lineups or betting over on his total bases/hit props.

Jay Yang advised taking the Seattle Mariners +1.5 runs at -124 against the Tigers. He noted Luis Castillo has been 'locked in,' effectively mixing pitches to keep hitters guessing, while Detroit's lineup has struggled all season versus top-tier right-handed pitching. Yang added that Seattle’s bullpen has been one of the more reliable units in MLB, boosting the chance they keep things close late. Cal Raleigh’s past success versus Tarik Skubal (including a homer on 8/7/24 and a hit on 4/2/25) provides additional upside, but the core of the play is Castillo’s current form and Detroit’s inconsistent offense. Yang expects a tight, low-scoring matchup that the Mariners should at least keep within a run, if not win outright.

Just A Bet Outside paired Colt Keith’s 1-plus hit with Chourio in the same parlay and broke down why the rookie leadoff man should oblige. Keith has moved to the top of the Detroit order, giving him four or even five plate appearances nightly, and he is tearing the cover off the ball in July with a .464 average. The left-handed hitter owns a .290 average, .495 slugging percentage and 143 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching and now draws Luis Castillo on the road. Castillo’s splits are night-and-day: opponents hit .302 with a 4.67 ERA against him away from T-Mobile Park compared to a .184 mark at home. Castillo also sports a 5.29 xFIP versus lefties. Given Keith’s red-hot form and the friendlier hitting environment, the tout expects at least one knock from the rookie.

Eric Lindquist urged bettors to grab Detroit -1.5 because he trusts Tarik Skubal and wants to attack Luis Castillo. Lindquist noted Castillo’s four–seam looks noticeably flatter this season, pointing to an 11.7 % barrel rate and 46.9 % hard-hit rate that scream impending regression when he leaves spacious T-Mobile Park. Skubal, meanwhile, has already cashed multiple Tigers run-line tickets for Lindy this year and owns the AL’s third-best K-BB% since May 1. Detroit’s lineup is calibrated for left-handed run support — Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene both carry .370-plus wOBA marks versus righties — giving Skubal room to work with. Lindquist cannot fathom why the market has Detroit laying only a short price on the run line and labeled it his “second-favorite play of the slate.”

Matt Perrault recommended betting the first-five innings total OVER 3.5 runs in Mariners-Tigers. His logic hinges on Seattle’s proficiency versus southpaws (top-10 in RBIs, 11th in batting average against left-handed pitching) and Luis Castillo’s road vulnerability (4.67 ERA, .302 opponents’ AVG, five homers allowed in 44.1 IP). Perrault concedes Skubal owns a sparkling 2.06 home ERA and 8-0 record, but pointed to recent hiccups—four earned runs vs Oakland and two vs Pittsburgh—as proof one mistake swing (he mentioned a possible Cal Raleigh homer) can get Seattle on the board. If Skubal surrenders even a single run and Castillo allows his usual two-plus, Perrault projects a 3-1 or 3-2 score by the end of five, clearing the number.

Bill Harrelson backed Colt Keith to go OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs against Seattle. He pointed out that Keith has cleared this number in 8 of his past 10 and 13 of his past 20 games, including monster 6-HRR performances in two recent meetings with Tampa Bay. Keith is finally heating up after a frigid April, hitting the prop in 9 of his last 11 while averaging 2.8 HRR. Harrelson expects roughly four plate appearances (3.8 per game on the season, five last game) and likes the matchup with right-hander Luis Castillo: Keith owns a .290 average vs righties this year (up from .271 overall) and is 6-for-24 (.250) lifetime off Castillo. Books agree—DraftKings lists the OVER at –140—so Harrelson is willing to ride the hot rookie in a plus split.

Brad Francis recommended Tigers –1.5, stressing that Seattle has failed to cover the run line in six straight games against American League opponents. He added that the Mariners looked lifeless versus the Yankees, now travel to Detroit—"a tough place to play"—and must face Tarik Skubal, whom Francis called "the best pitcher on planet Earth."