Wilfinger played Under 7.5 (–115) in Mariners–Padres, citing an ideal pitching matchup and recent series trends. Seattle sends Bryan Woo (2.84 ERA, .225 xBA, microscopic 4.1% walk rate) while San Diego counters with Michael King, who has a 2.32 ERA and 56 strikeouts over 50.1 innings through nine starts. The first two games between these clubs both cashed unders, and Wilfinger highlighted Seattle’s offense slumping throughout the set and lacking familiarity with King’s arsenal. Given the Mariners’ identity as a staff-driven club and the Padres receiving ace-level production from King, he expects another low-scoring contest and would play the under down to 7.

Kenny G endorsed the Mariners at +120, arguing the market is underrating both Bryan Woo and Seattle’s revamped lineup. Woo owns a 2.84 ERA and is coming off 6.1 shutout innings against the Yankees, showing no road jitters (1.15 WHIP away from home). Seattle’s bats, once a liability, now rank 12th in runs and sit top-10 in both OBP and SLG, giving Woo credible support. By contrast San Diego’s offense has scored just two runs in the first two games of the series and has lost four of six overall. Michael King has been solid (2.32 ERA, ≤2 ER in five straight), but Kenny pointed to a Padres bullpen trending the wrong way (3.11 ERA after opening month below 2.80). Seattle’s pen is serviceable at 3.61. With the M’s 11-8 on the road and 12-7 to the over in those games—evidence their sticks travel—Kenny labeled the plus-money side the only playable angle on a volatile Sunday slate.

It's The Final Round highlighted Cal Raleigh’s 3-for-6 (.500) resume against Michael King and a 7-for-9 game hit streak, recommending the switch-hitting catcher for single-hit props or cheap DFS salary relief.

Drew Martin labeled Padres –135 his best bet behind Michael King’s consistency. King has delivered six straight starts of two earned runs or fewer, allowing just 34 hits in 50 innings with a 56:16 K:BB. He also held Seattle to one earned run in each of two 2024 outings. Brian Wu sports a shiny 2.80 ERA overall but shows stark home/road splits: only two earned runs allowed at T-Mobile Park versus 14 on the road, along with more than double the hits surrendered away from Seattle. Offensively, San Diego ranks sixth in wRC+ over the past week, while the Mariners sit 26th. The Friars also possess the stronger bullpen. With pitching, lineup, and relief advantages all aligning at a modest price, Martin advised laying –135 on the Padres.

Peterson went Over 7, projecting 7.9 runs. Padres right-hander Michael King owns a 2.32 ERA but a higher 3.24 FIP and allows 0.9 HR/9, suggesting some give-back. Mariners youngster Bryan Woo has been solid (2.84 ERA, 2.69 FIP), yet Seattle’s offense travels well, averaging 5.5 runs per road game (4th-best). With both lineups capable of power and King’s expected regression, Peterson sees value in a number he believes is a full run too low for Petco Park.

The Bettor Mark is riding San Diego to “not bat in the ninth” (essentially Padres ML) at ‑125 after last night’s 5-1 dud versus Seattle. He called the Friars one of 2025’s best ROI clubs and expects an immediate zig-zag correction against rookie right-hander Emerson Hancock. Nick Pivetta—traded west in April—gets the start for San Diego and should stretch deep enough to protect a late lead against a strikeout-prone Mariners lineup. Mark suggested adventurous bettors could pair the play with a run line or Padres team total, but his official wager is the no-bottom-of-the-ninth prop, a market DraftKings posts for all home teams.

JD Bets grabbed San Diego at -150. The Mariners are an ice-cold 3-7 over their last ten and rank bottom-five in runs in that span. Meanwhile the Padres’ bats have been "great" by JD’s sheet. On the bump, San Diego sends Stephen Kolek, who has yet to allow an earned run through two big-league appearances and even logged a 20-out complete-game shutout in Triple-A earlier this year. Seattle counters with rookie Logan Evans, who has coughed up 12 hits and seven runs (six earned) in just ten innings against Texas and Miami. With the starting pitching edge, better offense, and home field, JD sees no reason to complicate things and simply plays the Padres money line.

For the same matchup, Cash Out Sports Picks leaned OVER the total. Seattle has plated five-plus runs in three straight road games—including a 13-run eruption in Texas—and has hit the over in four of its last six away contests. Both clubs sit top-10 in slugging percentage, and the Mariners’ pitching staff owns a middling 3.87 ERA. Three of the last five meetings have gone over, including an 11-run game at Petco. Evans’ road struggles (6 ER, 11 hits in five innings) plus San Diego’s potent bats give this matchup blow-up potential, making the over the recommended play.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Padres on the money line. San Diego has won four of six and owns one of the NL’s best home records, whereas Seattle has dropped five of six overall and struggles versus right-handed pitching. Mariners starter Evans has been tagged for 11 runs in his last three outings and allowed six earned in his lone road start (five innings). Padres opener Kolak has not allowed a run in two appearances, and San Diego’s bullpen ranks 7th in MLB while Seattle’s relief corps remains shaky. Despite Seattle winning last year’s series, current form, matchup splits and bullpen depth all point to the Padres taking care of business at Petco.

Scott Reichel fired on San Diego –1.5, noting the Padres’ 16-5 record at Petco and a +1.9 run differential per game in that span. He expects the suddenly ice-cold Mariners offense—held under four runs in five of six—to keep sliding against rookie sensation Mason Kolach, whose complete-game shutout at Coors Field pushed his season ERA to 1.42. Reichel called Seattle starter Bryson Evans “flat-out horrific,” citing a 6.6 ERA and the league’s third-highest barrel rate allowed. With San Diego averaging 5.6 runs at home and owning a rested back-end bullpen (2.91 ERA in May), he projects a comfortable 6-3 type victory and is willing to ladder to –2.5 at plus money.

Lonte Smith said he will grab Seattle if bookmakers hang anything in the +140 to +160 range when numbers finally open. He admitted the M’s have been in a funk, plating fewer than four runs in five of their last six, but pointed to their 10-8 road record and .265 team average away from T-Mobile as proof the bats travel. Smith’s angle is mostly a fade of Padres rookie Bryson Evans, who drags a 6.60 ERA and 1.62 WHIP into the start and has been tagged for 4+ earned in three straight. Even with Seattle’s rotation ERA ballooning to 6.90 over the last 10 games, he expects enough positive regression to keep the game close and will sprinkle the full-game Over once the total appears, anticipating at least one crooked inning from each shaky bullpen.

Bennett called Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,100) a core spend because Mariners rookie Logan Evans has been destroyed away from Seattle, yielding a .504 wOBA to lefties and .420 to righties. With no dual-position flexibility among San Diego’s studs, Bennett recommends fitting whichever of Tatis, Jackson Merrill or Manny Machado best complements roster construction, labeling Tatis the top ceiling play.