Kenny G said bettors should back St. Louis at -125 in the series finale in Cleveland. He pointed to Matthew Liberatore’s recent surge—seven innings of two-run ball against the Cubs last time out and a 3.96 ERA on the season—and a Cardinals bullpen that has trimmed its ERA to 3.79. Offensively, the Redbirds sit 8th in MLB in runs and have plated 14 in the first two games of this series. Cleveland, meanwhile, has dropped three straight, will rely on Logan Allen and his 4.25 ERA (eight hits, four runs to Toronto in his last start) and owns a bottom-five lineup that could be without a banged-up Jose Ramirez. The Guardians bullpen (3.94 ERA) is actually worse than St. Louis’. Given those edges, Kenny believes the Cards are still cheap at -125 even with the sweep angle working against them.

Drew Martin said the only side he can back in Cleveland is St. Louis. He trusts Matthew Liberatore’s current form – the 25-year-old lefty owns a 71-to-12 K/BB ratio and is coming off back-to-back 6- and 7-inning outings with just two total earned runs. Martin added that the Redbirds hold clear bullpen and lineup edges. The real target is fading Logan Allen, whose 4.20 ERA and shaky 54-to-32 K/BB mark (under 2-to-1) suggest regression. Martin expects Allen to “get hit around,” making the Cardinals at any reasonable favorite price an actionable bet.

Scott Reichel played the full-game under 8.5 in Cardinals-Guardians. He noted that Miles Mikolas has quietly posted a 3.83 road ERA and has surrendered just two earned runs in each of his last two outings. Guardians starter Chikoni (3.38 ERA overall, 5.79 at home) looks rough on the season ledger but has held opponents to fewer than three earned in four straight starts. With the wind blowing in at roughly nine mph and Jose Ramirez questionable after taking a pitch off the hand, Reichel doubts either offense explodes. St. Louis has been punchless away from Busch and Cleveland sits only three games over .500 at home. He projected a final score in the 4-3 range and grabbed the under before it potentially slips to 8.

Kenny G leaned to St. Louis at +100, trusting the Cardinals’ seventh-ranked offense to break through either against rookie Slade Cecconi or a middling Guardians bullpen (3.81 ERA). He acknowledged Mikolas’ limited strikeout upside but pointed out his knack for run support—4.8 runs per start this year—and that Cleveland’s bats have been ice-cold with back-to-back shutouts and Jose Ramirez nursing a bruised hand. The Cardinals line-up owns a .324 OBP (8th) and has plated five-plus runs in four of its last six, whereas the Guardians have dropped 3 of 4 and sit bottom-five in ISO. Kenny expects St. Louis to exploit the weak Cleveland lineup and win a tight, low-scoring game.

Mark preferred "St. Louis or pass" at even money in Cleveland. The Cardinals have ripped off seven wins in their last ten while posting a +27 run differential in that span. Cleveland, meanwhile, has scored only nine total runs across two of its previous ten contests and is dealing with a pitching staff that’s hemorrhaging late-inning leads (bottom-five bullpen ERA over the past two weeks). With Guardians bats ice-cold and starting pitching depth stretched thin, Mark feels the market is undervaluing a red-hot St. Louis team that travels well (12-6 on the road versus sub-.500 opponents).

Lindquist laid –122 on the Cardinals moneyline, calling this his favorite play of the slate. Cleveland may be without Jose Ramirez after a hamstring scare, leaving a lineup he already labels “punch-less” outside Steven Kwan. St. Louis counters with Sonny Gray (3.72 ERA, 26% K-rate, 5% walk rate) against left-handed specialist Luis L. Ortiz, who sports a 1.44 WHIP and has surrendered eight homers to lefties in only 29 innings. That profile sets up perfectly for Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, and Nolan Gorman—all boasting .210+ ISOs versus righties. Lindquist expects St. Louis to grab an early lead and let its seventh-ranked bullpen (3.31 ERA) close the door.

B Wade Picks likes Josh Naylor to exceed 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI in the same Diamondbacks-Marlins game stack. Naylor has cashed this prop in nine of his last ten, averaging an eye-popping 3.0 HRR over that stretch, and 14 of his last 20 overall. He is slashing .335 against right-handed pitching this season and will face the inexperienced Eury Perez, whom Wade believes will issue plenty of baserunners. The tout called Naylor “absolute money lately” and views him as a high-floor, high-ceiling piece of the correlated play on Arizona’s offense.

Just A Bet Outside cautioned against blindly smashing Sonny Gray’s K-prop even though Cleveland carries the 4th-highest strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching over the last three weeks (25.5%). Gray has only 4-5 strikeouts in four of his past five outings and his season-long K-rate has fallen to 25.9%. While he strikes out lefties at a strong 28.9% clip, the Guardians’ projected lineup is likely to feature five right-handed bats that drop his whiff upside. With recent form dipping, the tout would lean under anything posted above 6.0 Ks and prefers looking at outs recorded props instead.