With Minnesota yet to announce a starter, Kenny G leaned toward Washington at +145. He acknowledged Jake Irvin’s blow-up versus Cincinnati but pointed out the right-hander has mixed in quality efforts and faces a Twins offense that has cratered since mid-July. Minnesota’s once-elite bullpen has collapsed, while Washington’s relief unit is already baked into the big number. The Nationals are 27-22-3 to the over on the road, yet Kenny prefers the side because a mystery opener or long-man scenario for the Twins rarely justifies a –170 price tag. He stopped short of a best bet but labeled the Nats “the side you want” given current form and market overreaction.

Kenny G leaned hard toward Minnesota at –225, hinting it could become his daily "lock." Joe Ryan (10-4, 2.63 ERA) just carved up Colorado for 11 strikeouts over seven one-run innings and now draws a Washington lineup that has scored 0,0,6,10 and 1 runs in its last five games and ranks 18th in runs with the coldest bats in the league by Kenny’s eye. The real target, though, is baseball’s worst bullpen: the Nationals’ relievers are dead last in ERA. Starter Mitchell Parker (6-10, 5.00 ERA) ended a pre-break skid with a decent outing versus San Diego but remains volatile. The Twins are only 19th in runs themselves and their bullpen is shaky, yet they own a 28-20 home record and should have a decisive edge through the first six frames. Kenny expects Ryan to “mow down” Washington and sees little path for the Nationals to keep up, making Twins moneyline his preferred wager.

Mark advised using the Twins moneyline as a parlay leg with any trustworthy favorite. He trusts Joe Ryan against rookie Mitchell Parker and views Minnesota’s offense as dangerous enough to justify the steep standalone price. Because he refuses to lay prohibitive juice, the Twins are a “dance-partner” piece only, but he considers them a near-lock to win outright with Ryan’s 30% strikeout rate and 1.03 WHIP giving the clear pitching edge.

As a bonus play, Bill Harrelson suggested Max Kepler under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Kepler has stayed below this mark in eight of his last ten games, 16 of his last 20 (80 %), and seven of his last eight while averaging just 0.8 HRR in that stretch. He faces Marcus Stroman, against whom he is a miserable 1-for-12 lifetime (.083). Even with 3.8–4 plate appearances per game, Kepler’s season-long under rate is 64 %, and the market is priced equally on both sides, indicating no hidden over value. Harrelson believes the poor career numbers versus Stroman and recent cold spell warrant another under.

Bill Harrelson recommended taking James Wood for less than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs versus Minnesota. The rookie has been ice-cold, staying under this line in nine of his last ten outings and 13 of his last 20. He has just four hits across that ten-game span and was blanked yesterday. Wood averages roughly four plate appearances but is batting only .263 against right-handers compared to .272 overall, and he faces another righty Saturday. Other books are in agreement on the under, so Harrelson views this as a strong fade while the slump lasts.

Scott Reichel grabbed Washington at +110, calling the current –130 tag on Minnesota with Zebby Matthews ‘insane.’ Reichel argued the pitching gap actually favors the Nationals: MacKenzie Gore owns a 4.02 ERA and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four road outings, while Matthews limps in with a 6.26 season ERA and was torched for 5 runs on 8 hits in his lone start since returning from the IL (at Coors Field). Gore’s lone post–All-Star dud came against his former club in San Diego, but Reichel dismissed it as the southpaw’s typical volatility. He also noted that Washington overs have hit in seven of the last ten because the lineup has quietly produced 4.9 runs per game in July; that gives the Nats a path even if Gore’s command wobbles for an inning. With Matthews posting a 1.60 WHIP and the Twins bullpen having thrown 13 innings the previous three days, Reichel made Washington the clear value side and priced them closer to –110 himself.

Kenny G is leaning Washington at +115, contingent on Minnesota actually starting Zebby Matthews (1-2, 6.26 ERA) fresh off the IL. Matthews hasn’t pitched since July 19 and has been rocked in recent outings. Even with the league’s worst bullpen (5.74 ERA), Kenny thinks MacKenzie Gore (3.59 ERA) plus the price outweigh the risk because the Twins’ relievers are almost as shaky (4.25 ERA) and their offense sits 19th in runs and 22nd in average. Washington’s bats are inconsistent but have flashed double-digit output twice in the last five, while Minnesota just slogged through a series loss to the Dodgers. If Matthews is confirmed, Kenny plans to fire on the Nats as a value road underdog.

It's The Final Round said Josh Bell is a plus EV player-prop and DFS target against Twins rookie Zebby Matthews. Matthews has been shelled by left-handed bats all season ( .286 AVG to LHB in 2024 after .315 last year ) and was rocked for 5 ER over 4 IP in his first start back from the IL on July 19. Bell, a switch-hitter, will bat lefty—his power side that accounts for 12 of his 13 homers. Over the last 30 days Bell owns a .365 AVG and three bombs versus right-handed pitching; coming out of the break he is 7-for-21 (.333) with two homers, including one in each of the last two games. Outlier’s model grades Nationals Park as neutral with a 5 % HR boost for lefties and assigns Bell a 70 % chance to record a hit, 40 % to score, and an 8-10 fantasy-point range. All signals point to riding Bell overs or inserting him into DFS lineups on Friday.