Jakob Sanderson said Darnell Mooney is being treated like a throw-away pick even though he projects to run "99 percent of the routes" in a hyper-consolidated Atlanta offense. Sanderson expects Michael Penix Jr. to finish top-five in drop-back-to-throw conversion rate because the rookie "is terrified of contact, never takes sacks, never scrambles." That, plus a depth chart he called "Ray-Ray McCloud, Cadero Hodge and vibes," makes Mooney the unquestioned No. 2 behind Drake London. Sanderson does not buy Kyle Pitts’ target volume rebounding and believes the Falcons will finish as a top-10 passing attack, giving Mooney weekly spike-week potential at a dirt-cheap Round-16 cost. He is happily loading 15-plus-percent exposure in best-ball drafts before the market catches up.

Jakob Sanderson urged drafters to stay the course on Darnell Mooney despite the wideout landing on the fallers list after a Week-1 shoulder scare. Sanderson said team doctors have Mooney labeled merely "a few weeks" away, noting the receiver is already walking around camp without a sling. At Mooney’s current Round-16 ADP he owns 16 % exposure, calling him this year’s "last train leaving the station" for deep-threat upside in Atlanta’s retooled offense. If the former Bear is healthy by mid-August—as Sanderson expects—his down-field route tree meshes perfectly with Kirk Cousins’ play-action heavy scheme, giving Mooney spike-week potential that far outstrips the price tag. Sanderson will continue clicking him unless a veteran addition or an unexpected setback surfaces.

Jakob Sanderson knocked Josh Downs down his board after concluding the slot receiver "has a lot to lose if Anthony Richardson starts." Sanderson worries the Colts’ passing volume will crater with Richardson under center—camp reports note the rookie completed just 10 of 12 throws in full pads with zero attempts traveling more than 10 yards and is intentionally forcing short routes to prove he can hit slants. Sanderson added that Richardson’s shoulder remains a question mark and fears a scenario where the staff anoints him only because veteran Daniel Jones (brought in for competition) is playing even worse. All of that volatility pushes Downs below Swift, Meyers and Deebo in Sanderson’s updated rankings, making him merely a late-round dart until the quarterback situation stabilizes.

Jakob Sanderson said he just upgraded Jerry Jeudy from 79th overall to 74th, sliding the Browns wideout ahead of D’Andre Swift, Jakobi Meyers, Deebo Samuel and Josh Downs inside what he called a “big fat tier” that begins around pick 67. Sanderson believes Jeudy is still mis-priced relative to the names in that tier and is willing to reach a half-round to secure modest exposure before ADP inevitably corrects. He did not cite individual metrics, but the ranking jump itself signals growing confidence that Jeudy’s target share and role in Cleveland’s revamped offense give him a clearer WR2 ceiling than the market is currently baking in.

Jakob Sanderson urged drafters to attack Jordan Addison in the late-6th/early-7th round, well ahead of current ADP. Sanderson argued Addison can “go band-for-band” with Tee Higgins if they shared an offense, noting the sophomore already logged roughly 70 targets to Jefferson’s 80 after Week 9 last year despite Jefferson returning from injury. Addison’s profile checks every breakout box: Biletnikoff winner, 19 touchdowns across two NFL seasons, immediate production while playing alongside a megastar, and strong per-route efficiency. Sanderson acknowledged a likely two-to-three-game suspension stemming from Addison’s reckless driving citation but views it as a buying opportunity. He has the second-year wideout ranked 67th overall—just ahead of Stefon Diggs, Deebo Samuel and Isiah Pacheco—and expects a full-season target share in the low-20 % range that can deliver a high-end WR2 outcome if McCarthy proves competent.

Jakob Sanderson moved Justin Jefferson down to the 1.06, placing CeeDee Lamb, Saquon Barkley and—most provocatively—Jameer Gibbs ahead of him. Sanderson’s fade is rooted in four angles: (1) Jefferson’s mild hamstring strain introduces an extra layer of early-camp uncertainty; (2) rookie QB J.J. McCarthy and an upgraded interior offensive line could nudge Kevin O’Connell’s Pass Rate Over Expected down "a couple points," limiting monster target volume; (3) Lamb has out-scored Jefferson on per-game basis over the last two seasons while offering a cleaner bill of health; (4) elite running backs like Gibbs project for higher raw fantasy totals in half-PPR best-ball formats. Sanderson emphasized that Jefferson is still "absolutely fantastic," but sees more situational risk than the other top-six options and refuses to pay a premium when workable substitutes exist.

Jakob Sanderson cautioned drafters not to get carried away with Woody Marks even after nudging the rookie up to pick 190. Sanderson said Marks profiles strictly as a third-down back—his college elusive rating, breakaway percentage and per-game yards after contact were "awful," echoing film-study reports that tagged him as a pass-catcher only. Because Marks is so limited as a runner, Sanderson believes Houston is almost forced to keep him in that sub-package role, so the floor is Justice-Hill-type usage that rarely returns an 18th-round best-ball pick. The bigger concern is timeline: with six weeks until Week 1, the Texans could easily trade a Day-3 pick for Devin Singletary or another capable veteran. If that happens, Marks "returns to the shadow realm" and offers almost no ceiling without a simultaneous long-term injury to Joe Mixon or Nick Chubb. Sanderson is comfortable staying 15 picks ahead of ADP but will not chase heavy exposure, calling Marks an asymmetrical bet whose best- and worst-case outcomes overlap uncomfortably.

Jakob Sanderson is open to taking Joe Mixon once he slides into the late-7th or 8th round, aiming for roughly 4 percent exposure at the cheapest prices of draft season. Sanderson cited beat-writer Aaron Wilson’s report that Houston still expects Mixon to be ready for Week 1, which, combined with the veteran’s locked-in contract and lack of proven competition, keeps a viable workload ceiling in play. He views Mixon as a situational value pick behind backs like Isiah Pacheco and D’Andre Swift but before the Jaylen Warren/Jordan Mason tier, arguing that the market is baking in a "pretty good chance" of a lost season. If Mixon does answer the bell in September, Sanderson believes drafters will have secured a volume-based RB2 at a steep discount.

Jakob Sanderson pushed back on the idea that Marvin Mims can grow into an every-down fantasy starter. Sanderson said Sean Payton is actually deploying Mims correctly—as a specialized field-stretching weapon—because the second-year Bronco is "deplorably bad" at beating man coverage according to Reception Perception data. While Sanderson acknowledged Mims is an electric deep threat and dangerous in space, he emphasized that the wideout’s route tree is capped, making a full-time role unlikely. Payton’s insistence on rotating four similar gadget receivers (Brandon Johnson, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Troy Franklin, etc.) further limits Mims’ snap ceiling. Sanderson concluded that drafters should treat Mims strictly as a late-round spike-week dart in Best Ball formats rather than banking on a breakout fueled by expanded volume.

Jakob Sanderson said Darnell Mooney is a screaming late-round buy now that the ex-Bear is healthy and locked into every-down work opposite Drake London. Sanderson expects Michael Penix Jr. to finish top-five in drop-back-to-throw rate because Penix hates contact, never scrambles, and rarely takes sacks. That, plus Zac Robinson’s spread concepts, should push Atlanta into the top-10 in pass attempts. Mooney already ran 99% of Chicago’s routes when healthy last year and brings the same full-field role to a depth chart that Sanderson dismisses as “Kyle Pitts and dust” behind London. With Ray-Ray McCloud and KhaDarel Hodge offering no serious target threat and Mooney’s 13.9-yard 2023 aDOT proving his down-field chops are intact, Sanderson is comfortably gobbling up shares in the 14th-15th round of Best Ball drafts, calling Mooney his personal “Rashid Shaheed” for 2024 spike weeks.

Jakob Sanderson said he bumped Jerry Jeudy up from 79 to 74 overall, vaulting him ahead of DeAndre Swift, Jacoby Myers, Deebo Samuel and Josh Downs. Sanderson views everything from pick 67 through the low-70s as one massive tier and thinks Jeudy is being mis-priced inside it. He cited Cleveland’s plan to feature Jeudy as the primary slot/flanker next to Amari Cooper, a projected increase in pass rate with Deshaun Watson finally healthy, and the front-office’s three-year, $52.5 million commitment as evidence the veteran will command steady volume. With lingering narratives about last season’s foot sprain still anchoring Jeudy’s ADP, Sanderson is happy to collect shares whenever the former first-rounder reaches the mid-70s of Best Ball drafts.

Jakob Sanderson called Jordan Addison a screaming value at his current late-7th-round ADP and said he is willing to take him as early as pick 67. Sanderson argued Addison could "go band for band" with Tee Higgins if the two wideouts shared a depth chart, citing Addison’s Boletnikoff-winning college resume and 19 touchdowns through two NFL seasons despite operating "on expert mode" next to Justin Jefferson from Day 1. He highlighted Addison’s ability to separate, his immediate rookie-year production, and Vikings play-caller Kevin O’Connell’s willingness to scheme two-receiver looks that concentrate targets. Sanderson believes the market is unfairly dinging Addison for Jefferson’s presence and a possible two-game suspension, overlooking the sophomore’s weekly spike-week profile that plays perfectly in Best Ball tournaments. He recommended scooping a 10-15 percent portfolio share before the market wakes up.

Jakob Sanderson knocked Justin Jefferson down to 1.06 in his personal ranks after the receiver’s minor hamstring strain. Sanderson argued CeeDee Lamb has actually outscored Jefferson on a per-game basis over the past two seasons, while elite backs like Jameer Gibbs and Saquon Barkley project better in half-PPR Best Ball scoring. He also worries that rookie QB J.J. McCarthy will lower Kevin O’Connell’s pass rate over expected by "a couple points" and that an improved defense will further cut into passing volume. With those macro concerns plus an injury tag and no real ADP discount, Sanderson is comfortable letting others chase Jefferson inside the top five.

Jakob Sanderson said he is now open to grabbing Joe Mixon when the price slides into Rounds 7–8. Beat writer Aaron Wilson, who Sanderson trusts, reported the Texans still expect Mixon to be ready for Week 1, and Sanderson wants to secure a small (≈4%) exposure at the absolute floor ADP. He acknowledges that Mixon could be “absolute nothing” at age 29 but argues the combination of full bell-cow contract, lackluster competition, and discounted draft slot creates an asymmetric upside swing for Best Ball tournaments if the veteran’s foot issue proves minor.

Jakob Sanderson said Colston Loveland is the single best click on the Bears roster at his dirt-cheap ADP. Sanderson projected Loveland to start Week 1 after returning from shoulder surgery in July and expects the rookie to push into the back half of the TE1 range by fantasy playoffs. He argued Chicago will lean on 12-personnel because DeAndre Swift needs extra blockers and Ben Johnson wants the offense to resemble San Francisco’s—DJ Moore in a Debo-style role, Rome Odunze stretching the field, and Loveland operating as their George Kittle. Sanderson called Loveland the most complete tight-end prospect in the class outside Brock Bowers, noting he still reached four catches a week in Michigan’s quarterback carousel and consistently beat corners on slant routes when split wide. He dismissed narratives about poor blocking, pointing out Loveland played through the injured shoulder and still held up in-line. With overrated wideouts, a rookie-friendly scheme, and no “unsurpassable” target earners ahead of him, Sanderson believes Loveland can eclipse veterans like Cole Kmet and leapfrog the five-to-six tight ends going immediately ahead of him in both best-ball and managed formats.

Jakob Sanderson highlighted James Conner as the superior Round-6 pivot to Kamara. Despite turning 30, Conner has posted the two most efficient seasons of his career, ranking near the top of the league in success rate and yards after contact. With Kyler Murray healthy and Marvin Harrison Jr. stretching defenses, Sanderson expects the Cardinals to fight for a Wild Card spot, keeping Conner’s late-season touchdown equity sky-high. He concedes Conner will never match Kamara’s reception totals, but in half-PPR that gap matters less than the veteran’s red-zone dominance—"he earns his points like a real man by running the ball into the end zone repeatedly." The cleaner team context, goal-line role and recent efficiency create a higher probability of Week 15-17 spike games, making Conner a priority selection whenever he slips past ADP.

Jakob Sanderson urged drafters to tread carefully with Alvin Kamara at his RB18 price tag. Kamara was a regular-season hero last year but scored almost nothing in Weeks 15-17, and Sanderson thinks that script is likely to repeat. The 29-year-old’s rushing efficiency has been mediocre for several seasons—last year’s small rebound included—and the Saints’ offense now revolves around rookie quarterback Tyler Shough on what Sanderson expects to be a bottom-three roster competing for the No. 1 pick. A new coaching staff has every incentive to evaluate younger backs Kendre Miller and rookie Devin Neal once the season is lost. That sets up Kamara to smash early-season projections only to see his workload evaporate in Underdog’s single-week playoff rounds. Because BBM is decided in Weeks 15-17, Sanderson is fading Kamara in favor of backs with clearer December upside.

Jakob Sanderson said Jaylen Waddle is a screaming value at his 53rd-overall Underdog ADP (WR29). Waddle averaged over 2.0 yards per route run and a 25% targets-per-route rate in both 2022 and 2023, numbers usually attached to Round-2 fantasy picks. Sanderson blamed 2024’s face-plant on a non-functional offensive line, in-game injuries to Waddle, Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa, and Mike McDaniel spamming hand-offs and Jonnu Smith screens just to stay afloat. With Jonnu gone, the underneath tree re-opens for Waddle, and Hill—now 31 with declining usage (21% TPRR, sub-2.0 YPRR)—could finally be slowing down or even traded thanks to his movable contract and lingering off-field questions. Sanderson sees two clean paths to a smash: (1) the Dolphins return to their 2022 pass-rate and Waddle reprises a hyper-efficient No. 2 role, or (2) Hill declines/misses time and Waddle becomes the clear alpha. Either outcome pushes him at least a round and a half above current cost, easily ahead of DeVonta Smith, Zay Flowers and the other “wishy-washy” Round-4 receivers. In Best Ball Mania he wants heavy exposure, predicting Waddle will beat WR29 “with his eyes closed.”

Jakob Sanderson is "all-in" on George Pickens at WR26/47 overall, calling him one of his highest-owned players. Pickens has topped two yards per route in back-to-back seasons despite Arthur Smith’s minus-10% PROE and subpar quarterback play. Sanderson projects roughly 120 additional routes in Dallas, where new OC Brian Schottenheimer has already shown a willingness to let Dak Prescott push tempo and throw at a +5% PROE. With defenses forced to devote safety help to CeeDee Lamb and no true target-earning threats behind Jake Ferguson, Pickens will see consistent single coverage. Sanderson likened the 2025 Cowboys distribution to Bengals-era Higgins vs. Chase, noting Pickens has actually outproduced Tee Higgins on a per-route basis. The Cowboys’ weak RB room (Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, Jaden Blue) further tilts them toward a pass-first identity. Contract-year motivation, expanding route tree (more crossers and slants), and better ball placement should yield career-best YAC and spike weeks, making Pickens a smash in both best-ball and managed formats.

Jakob Sanderson gave Mahomes a "slight thumbs-down" at QB6/85 overall, arguing that selecting him forces you to pass on the final tier of running backs and wideouts with locked-in volume such as Michael Pittman or high-upside rookies like Emeka Egbuka. He pointed out Mahomes has finished QB8 and QB11 the last two years and that the 2025 quarterback pool is exceptionally deep. Instead of paying an eighth-round premium, Sanderson prefers either spending up for one of the true dual-threat elites in the top four rounds or waiting for discount pocket passers — Trevor Lawrence with Travis Hunter, Justin Herbert in Year 2 of Kellen Moore with Lad McConkey — who cost 40–50 picks later. In redraft he would rather grab two late "quarterback-window" options such as Anthony Richardson for free, while in best ball he only clicks Mahomes when the stack falls into his lap at a discount. The play is to leverage depth at the position and allocate draft capital to scarcer RB/WR assets.

Jakob Sanderson said Trey McBride should be treated like a second-round pick in full-PPR redraft and remains a comfortable third-rounder in half-PPR best-ball rooms. Sanderson expects the Cardinals to continue featuring McBride in the slot where he is already generating more yards after the catch than Marvin Harrison and flashing sideline “Moss” ability. He projected a realistic path to 100 receptions and 8-9 touchdowns, noting that if those scores materialize McBride vaults into the truly elite tight-end tier we have seen in past Travis Kelce seasons. Because tight-end touchdowns are harder to predict week-to-week, Sanderson wants to bet on McBride’s bankable volume—he led the position in targets last year—and let variance work in his favor. The bottom line: in start-one-TE PPR leagues you gain weekly edge by locking in McBride’s reception floor while still having legitimate ceiling, and his half-PPR best-ball ADP stays palatable enough that Sanderson is scooping him wherever possible.

Jakob Sanderson endorsed Trey McBride at the 2-3 turn, noting he saw "up near 150 targets" last season and functioned like the Cardinals’ Amon-Ra St. Brown. With George Kittle’s ADP rising, the opportunity cost of taking McBride has fallen, and Sanderson now prefers him to Marvin Harrison Jr. in the same range. He argued that mid-round tight ends such as Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and Evan Engram are "fragile projections" capped at 65-70% routes, whereas McBride already owns an alpha-level role and just needs normal touchdown variance to break into the truly elite tier. In full-PPR redraft formats Sanderson said you could "make a pretty decent case he should actually be a second-round pick," while he remains a strong third-round selection in half-PPR best-ball contests.

Jakob Sanderson declared he is "pro-Bucky" at RB9/22nd overall and still thinks the crowd is light. Irving led the league in yards-after-contact per carry last season and converted a mid-year timeshare into full workhorse status after Rashad White’s primetime fumble versus Dallas. From that point forward White logged just 10 total carries (one in the playoffs) while a playoff-bound Tampa offense funneled touches to Irving. Sanderson believes the new offensive coordinator is philosophically tied to last year’s staff and has publicly called Irving a centerpiece. Although Irving is only 195 lbs and the Tristan Wirfs foot injury “is the one thing that gives me pause,” Sanderson still slots him directly behind Jonathan Taylor and ahead of every third-round skill player because he sees no reason the team would "turn back the clock" after watching Irving elevate the run game. He views Irving’s ceiling as a top-five fantasy RB and wants continued exposure in Underdog drafts.

Jakob Sanderson advised moving off Quinshon Judkins at RB33/103 overall because the domestic-violence case puts every outcome on the table. As a lawyer, Sanderson noted Judkins has not signed his rookie contract, meaning the Browns cannot place him on the paid Commissioner’s Exempt List yet—but they likely will once he signs. If that happens, Judkins could remain on paid leave indefinitely until the legal process is resolved and then still face the standard six-game suspension spelled out in the NFL’s personal-conduct policy. Sanderson pegged the 80-90th-percentile outcome as a mid-season return around Week 7, but warned the timeline could stretch much longer, referencing Kareem Hunt’s and Michael Hall’s multi-step absences. Because Dylan Samson would get first crack at the backfield and could impress enough to keep the job, Sanderson now ranks Judkins one spot behind Samson and is “unselling” Judkins even at the discounted price.

Jakob Sanderson said Travis Hunter is a clear buy at his current Underdog ADP of WR31/55th overall and would happily take him in the 4th round of best-ball drafts. Sanderson believes the Jaguars would not go through the logistical headache of using Hunter on both sides of the ball unless they plan to give him "120-140% combined snaps," projecting 65-70% of offensive snaps and roughly an 80% route rate once you account for him sitting mostly on run plays. Because offensive coaches like Liam Cohen excel at schemed screens, Sanderson expects Hunter’s targets per route to be elite, giving him weekly boom potential. He views Hunter’s floor as a volatile WR3 while his ceiling is a top-15 to top-20 WR down the stretch, a level of upside he does not see from similarly-priced receivers such as Zay Flowers. In large-field best-ball tournaments Sanderson wants heavy exposure, stating he would "rather be on the right side of history" than fade a potentially generational talent.

Jakob Sanderson called DJ Moore "the worst click by several tiers in all of Best Ball Mania" and revealed he has drafted the Bears receiver 0% of the time. Sanderson questioned Moore’s ceiling in an offense that just added Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze, saying Moore rarely beats coverage more than five yards downfield and offers little spike-week potential in a half-PPR best-ball format. He would rather take Rome Odunze—who goes two rounds later—or pivot to running-back detours like TreVeyon Henderson and Breece Hall in the same neighborhood. Until Moore’s price drops at least a full round, Sanderson advised drafters to avoid him entirely.

Jakob Sanderson signed off on taking Daniel Jones as the room’s third quarterback even though Jones and Trevor Lawrence square off in Week 17. Sanderson said overlapping signal-callers would bother him in a two-QB build, but once you’re rostering three passers the correlation risk flips into a feature. Their roster is already heavily levered to the Colts–Jaguars game—Lawrence, Tank Bigsby, Michael Pittman, Brenton Strange and Jarkez Hunter are all on board—so the entire entry lives or dies with that matchup anyway. Adding Jones simply doubles down on a bet that the game environment shoots out; if it fails, the lineup was dead regardless. He framed the move as classic Best Ball tournament game theory: embrace variance and condense your win condition around one must-hit shootout rather than spreading thin, especially when you can grab Jones at the very end of drafts.

Jakob Sanderson brushed off the Jauan Jennings contract chatter as meaningless for fantasy gamers. He said he has “no concerns” that the veteran wide-out will be traded or stage a hold-out, noting the 49ers are chasing a Super Bowl and have zero incentive to move him. Jennings, for his part, lacks the leverage big-name receivers have, so Sanderson expects him back with the starters in Week 1 even if negotiations drag on. Because of that, Sanderson is leaving Jennings’ projection and 63.0 ADP untouched and advised Best Ball drafters not to downgrade him—if the market lets Jennings slip another round, Sanderson sees it as a straightforward buy-the-dip opportunity.

Jakob Sanderson dubbed Justin Fields "the best standalone option in any draft," noting that you do not need a Jets pass-catcher stack for Fields to pay off. Because Fields regularly slips past the early quarterback runs yet still owns week-winning upside, Sanderson is comfortable selecting him on rosters where earlier stack targets fall through. He views Fields as the perfect centerpiece of a three-quarterback room alongside later values like Trevor Lawrence or Justin Herbert but is also willing to let Fields ride as the main dual-threat scorer when correlations fail to line up.

Jakob Sanderson is not shying away from Jalen Hurts even after the quarterback’s ADP bumped from the fifth into the fourth round. When Hurts was a fifth-rounder Sanderson said he was a "massive stand"; now, although the market has adjusted, Hurts is still the only elite signal-caller you can "get away with" drafting after a heavy wide-receiver start. Sanderson contrasted Hurts’ new tag with the third-round sticker prices on Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels and is forcing himself to take some Hurts exposure whenever the Eagle slips into Round 4.

Jakob Sanderson said James Conner is the lone gray-beard runner he is actively targeting in the sixth round. Sanderson cannot understand why Conner’s ADP lags behind Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara, insisting that "all of his advanced metrics profile the last couple of years are absolutely excellent" while Mixon and Kamara look "pretty washed and just living on volume." Outside of age there is, in Sanderson’s words, "nothing about him to not like and appreciate." Conner’s early-season floor also fits Sanderson’s rookie-heavy builds—he called the veteran a "fast starter" who can keep lineups afloat while younger backs such as Hampton get their feet under them. Sanderson is drafting Conner ahead of Mixon in Best Ball Mania and treating him as a stabilizing RB2/3 with real ceiling.

Jakob Sanderson advised scooping Ricky Pearsall while he is still affordable, predicting the rookie’s ADP will keep rising as drafters digest the Jauan Jennings contract saga and the 49ers’ offensive environment. Sanderson admitted he had been underweight because he preferred Jaden Reed and was snagging running backs like Quinshon Judkins and Caleb Johnson in that range, but Jennings’ uncertain status and Pearsall’s first-round draft capital have changed the calculus. He believes Jennings ultimately stays in San Francisco, yet merely having the veteran’s future in question is enough to drive Pearsall’s price from the late-90s into the mid-80s by August. Given Brock Purdy’s hyper-efficient passing attack (top-3 in EPA per dropback last year) and Kyle Shanahan’s willingness to run 3-WR sets when game scripts demand it, Sanderson wants to secure exposure now rather than face a flat-out fade when Pearsall costs a seventh-round pick. He framed the move as classic anti-fragility—buy before the news is fully priced in, then let the market do the work.

Jakob Sanderson said he is slashing Quinshon Judkins’ rank from the mid-70s all the way into the Zach Charbonnet territory (outside the top-100) and refusing to click him in Best Ball Mania unless the market craters. Sanderson walked through the league’s disciplinary timeline: historically the NFL waits for criminal cases to be resolved before handing out suspensions, and he assigns under a 20 % probability that Judkins’ case gets adjudicated this year. That sounds good, but the real landmine is Roger Goodell’s totally discretionary commissioner’s exempt list, which would sideline Judkins for the entire season and function exactly like a suspension. He contrasted the NFL’s inconsistency—Alvin Kamara and Von Miller never went on exempt despite ugly allegations—to show nothing is predictable. Because Judkins hasn’t even signed his rookie contract, Sanderson expects the Browns to be in no rush to guarantee money, further muddying the outlook. With outcomes ranging from 17 games played to 0, Sanderson argues the correct play is to treat Judkins as a highly volatile, mostly negative-EV lottery ticket and push him down to the Charbonnet/Kendre Miller pocket of drafts.

Jakob Sanderson warned that Quinshon Judkins’ recent criminal accusations introduce a wide range of outcomes for 2025 drafters. He thinks an actual suspension this season is "very unlikely" because the NFL historically waits for criminal cases to be resolved—an outcome he puts under a 20 % probability before year-end. The bigger concern is the Commissioner’s Exempt List, which could park Judkins for the entire season and effectively mirror a suspension for fantasy purposes. Sanderson compared the uncertainty to past cases like Alvin Kamara’s, emphasizing that the league has been inconsistent on when it chooses to invoke the exempt list. Until the legal process plays out, he’s treating Judkins as a highly volatile lottery ticket whose ADP should continue to fall, advising gamers to discount him heavily in both Best Ball and season-long drafts.

Jakob Sanderson said Hampton’s ADP should now climb into the late-third round after news that Najee Harris will miss the start of Chargers camp because of a fireworks accident. Sanderson leaned on the anti-fragility concept, arguing that every practice rep Harris misses lets the “younger, more talented, more invested-in” Hampton work with the first team and accelerate a full takeover. Because both backs are new to Jim Harbaugh’s offense, Harris no longer enjoys any incumbency edge, so Hampton could emerge from camp as the Week 1 starter. Sanderson has already bumped Hampton up half a round in his ranks and is drafting him over Kyren Williams and James Cook—occasionally even over Breece Hall when managing exposure. He suggested drafters open WR-heavy, then snag Hampton as an RB2/3 at the 3-4 turn in Best Ball or season-long formats.

Jakob Sanderson said he is essentially done drafting Christian McCaffrey in Best Ball Mania now that the 49er back has flipped Puka Nacua in ADP. While McCaffrey would project for the most Week-17 points if he is active, Sanderson stressed that the format only requires beating him ONCE— in the final— and his injury volatility makes that entirely feasible. McCaffrey has appeared in just one Week-17 game over the past five seasons and carries the highest single-hit IR risk of any first-rounder. Wide receivers in the same range, by contrast, offer similar weekly ceilings with far less fragility and are almost impossible to replace later in drafts once the position "dries up." Sanderson still likes CMC in standard redraft and high-stakes main-event leagues, but sees him as a poor risk-reward bet in top-heavy, week-weighted Best Ball tournaments where a single late-season absence torpedoes expected value.

Jakob Sanderson urged Best-Ball drafters to stop burning late-round picks on Hunter Henry. Sanderson conceded that Henry’s median projection looks fine— roughly 60 catches, 650 yards and half-a-dozen touchdowns— but stressed that the range of outcomes is almost comically narrow. Unlike the young, athletic wide-outs and contingent-value running backs available in Rounds 10-18, Henry cannot post the 25- to 30-point spike weeks required to win the weekly-weighted BBM playoff structure. With no path to sudden volume (he rarely tops 5 targets even when healthy) and virtually no yards-after-catch juice, Sanderson called Henry a “482-dad-running tight end” who wastes roster spots that should be allocated to players capable of season-altering ceilings. In his portfolio he is fading Henry entirely and using those picks on upside bets such as Keon Coleman or backup running backs one injury away from 20 touches.

Jakob Sanderson called Luther Burden one of the most mispriced players in the entire player pool, noting that the rookie wideout routinely slips into the 10th–11th round (around pick 125) even though his ceiling is “pretty close” to what Garrett Wilson flashed as a rookie. Sanderson cited Burden’s five-star pedigree, explosive traits, and pre-college dominance, then pointed to the situation: Burden lands in a Ben Johnson offense with Caleb Williams, giving him a far better quarterback and play-caller than Wilson ever had with Zach Wilson. Historically, rookies supply a disproportionate share of ADP-smashing hits, and Sanderson enters drafts specifically to grab Burden whenever he falls—on DraftKings he now goes after Darius Slayton, which Sanderson called “absolutely free expected value.” He believes Burden can deliver top-15 positional weeks down the stretch while costing only a double-digit-round pick, a risk-reward profile perfectly built for large-field Best Ball tournaments.

Jakob Sanderson acknowledged that a stream of minicamp quotes labeling Travis Hunter "a cornerback first" has cooled the hype, yet Hunter’s ADP has not fallen enough for him to resume heavy drafting. Sanderson still loves the ceiling— top-two draft capital, Justin Jefferson comps, and genuine two-way explosiveness create what he called "probably the widest standard deviation of literally any player in the pool"— but he sees better value in fourth-round alternatives like George Pickens, George Kittle, Jalen Hurts, and even Jaylen Waddle. Because Best Ball Mania rewards spike weeks, Sanderson will pounce if Hunter slides to the 5/6 turn, where he currently only selects TreVeyon Henderson and Chris Olave. Until the slappies push Hunter another round lower, Sanderson is content to wait, stressing that median projection lines are the wrong lens for such a volatile, tournament-winning profile.

Jakob Sanderson said Jaylen Waddle is still worth clicking whenever he settles in the mid-fifth round of Best Ball Mania drafts. Sanderson zoomed out from 2023 and reminded listeners that Waddle averaged 2.50 yards per route run in both 2021 and 2022 under two different play-callers—a profile that usually signals future WR1 seasons, not collapse. Last year’s dip, in his view, was triage football: Tua Tagovailoa’s injured ribs forced even quicker throws, Tyreek Hill was battling his own decline, and Waddle himself was on the injury report nearly every week. Those overlapping issues pushed Miami into "do the easiest thing" mode and masked Waddle’s talent. Sanderson now expects healthier versions of Tua and Waddle plus natural regression away from the ultra-conservative concepts that capped explosive plays. If Hill’s age-31 cliff accelerates, Waddle could vacuum up a larger target share while still being drafted after receivers like Keenan Allen and DeVonta Smith. Sanderson is maintaining roughly 9-10% exposure so long as the price sits in Round 5 and will only back off if he spikes into the late fourth.

Jakob Sanderson told listeners the room is chasing a mirage as Tyreek Hill climbs into the late-second round. Hill’s efficiency already cratered to roughly 2.1 yards per route (down nearly a full yard and barely above rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba) and he turns 31 during the fantasy playoffs— historically the tipping point for an irreversible wide-receiver cliff. Sanderson piled on Miami’s protection woes: Pro Football Focus ranks the Dolphins 25th after Terron Armstead’s retirement pushed likely bust Patrick Paul into the blind-side role and forced two brand-new interior starters, James Daniels and rookie Jonah Savaginia, into action. A bottom-ten line paired with Tua Tagovailoa’s well-documented concussion history (and Zach Wilson as the fallback) raises the odds Miami leans on ultra-quick throws to backs and tight ends rather than down-field digs to Hill. With the ecosystem this fragile, Sanderson is smashing Rashee Rice, Trey McBride, Tee Higgins and even Josh Jacobs over Hill at similar ADPs and expects the market to correct once drafters stop “catching a falling knife.”

Jakob Sanderson cautioned drafters chasing late-round Roman Wilson shares. He pointed to Pittsburgh’s trade for Jonnu Smith and public praise of Darnell Washington as evidence the Steelers "are probably going to play more 13 personnel than any NFL team since the wing-T era." With Pat Freiermuth also on the roster, Sanderson projects Wilson as, at best, the fifth receiving option behind Diontae Johnson, DK Metcalf, and three tight ends in an offense he expects to be bottom-three in pass volume. Even if Aaron Rodgers locks onto one touchdown-spike candidate, Sanderson thinks Washington or a tight end is likelier than the rookie slot man. He is passing on Wilson entirely at current ADP.

Jakob Sanderson said drafters should keep scooping Jonathan Taylor at the 2/3 turn because the supposed goal-line threat from gimmicky tight end Tyler Warren is overblown. Sanderson noted that any offense is still far likelier to score by handing it to its All-Pro back than to a converted H-back, and while the Colts may toy with tush-push packages, Taylor’s elite breakaway speed lets him finish drives from anywhere on the field, reducing reliance on one-yard plunges in the first place. He reminded listeners Taylor erupted for 30-plus points in Week 17 last season—proof of the nuclear single-game upside needed to win Underdog’s playoff weeks. In half-PPR scoring, a modest 20-catch projection is less damaging, so Sanderson is not downgrading him for declining pass-game work. The only real concern is the ankle that has shortened three straight seasons, but Sanderson still views Taylor as “one of the best rushers in the league” and wants meaningful portfolio exposure rather than drafting scared.

Jakob Sanderson doubled down on his Daniel Jones stance, arguing the single most likely outcome is that Jones never relinquishes the Colts’ starting job if he stays healthy. He noted Shane Steichen has coaxed .500 football out of wildly different quarterbacks—Gardner Minshew, Joe Flacco, and Anthony Richardson—so a competent offense with Jones is realistic. Steichen’s personal incentive is simple: make the playoffs, keep the new ownership happy, and retain his job. As long as Indianapolis hovers around .500, Sanderson doubts the coach will bench Jones for a quarterback he "clearly has trust issues with" in Richardson. He projects a 2023 Minshew-type season—low-end QB2 production with weekly rushing upside—but at a 17th-round price tag that’s ideal for three-QB builds or Pittman/Downs stacks. Sanderson is hammering Jones at cost, believing drafters are underestimating the probability of a full 17-game runway.

Jakob Sanderson explained that Daniel Jones is the "best of both worlds" for Jonathan Taylor. Jones is mobile enough to keep the RPO game and zone-read looks that fuel Taylor’s efficiency, yet he isn’t the sledgehammer goal-line threat Anthony Richardson was. That should translate to more red-zone carries for Taylor without sacrificing rushing lanes. Sanderson also thinks Jones’ underneath, ball-control style will lengthen drives and increase total play volume—something the Colts lacked with Joe Flacco’s statue pocket presence and Richardson’s boom-bust series. While Sanderson is roughly market-weight on Taylor, he views the RB as firmly in the same tier as Bucky Irving and expects a return to 20-touch workloads, double-digit touchdowns, and the home-run scores that only Taylor’s long-speed can provide.

Jakob Sanderson said Michael Pittman Jr. is one of the best values on the entire Best Ball Mania board. Pittman has routinely posted between 0.23 and 0.28 targets per route in far worse passing environments, and Sanderson believes a Daniel Jones–led offense will be “a lot more normal, maybe not good, but fine.” Jones’ higher completion rate and lower average depth of target should extend drives and create a steadier diet of high-percentage looks for Pittman. Sanderson thinks Pittman’s current eighth- to ninth-round ADP is two to three rounds too cheap for a proven target earner who could flirt with 140–150 targets in a league-average attack. He is loading up on Pittman shares and expects the market to correct once drafters realize Jones, not Anthony Richardson, is the likeliest full-season starter.

Jakob Sanderson argued that Daniel Jones should be treated as the heavy favorite to open the season under center for Indianapolis and is an auto-draft in the final rounds as a third quarterback. Citing GM Chris Ballard’s comment that “both guys will help us at some point,” Sanderson said the shoulder timeline on Anthony Richardson remains ambiguous — visiting the surgeon who performed last year’s procedure suggests surgery is still on the table. Even if Richardson returns, Shane Steichen has already shown a willingness to start veterans (Gardner Minshew, Joe Flacco) while the rookie heals or struggles. Sanderson praised Steichen’s schematic versatility, noting he coaxed top-18 fantasy weeks out of Minshew, Flacco, and Richardson in vastly different offensive setups and kept the Colts at .500 despite QB chaos. Behind an elite offensive line and paired with Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, Jones projects for rushing floor (career 32.8 rush yards per start) and adequate passing volume, which Sanderson says is all you need from a QB taken in the 17th–18th round to spike once or twice during Best Ball Mania’s playoff weeks.

Jakob Sanderson reiterated that Breece Hall remains a smash second-round pick in Best Ball Mania even after new HC Aaron Glenn keeps praising rookie Braylon Allen. Sanderson said the only anti-Hall arguments he hears are rooted in coach-speak, which he is happy to fade. He pointed to Hall’s unquestioned talent edge — Allen ranked second-to-last in rush yards over expected per attempt in 2023, while Hall was top-10 despite a torn ACL the year before. Sanderson added that OC Tanner Engstrand comes directly from Detroit, where Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for roughly 30 expected fantasy points per game. With Garrett Wilson the only Jets pass-catcher drafted inside the first 16 rounds and Justin Fields showing an increased check-down rate last season, Sanderson projects Hall to soak up targets and goal-line carries. He expects a workload similar to 2023 Detroit but condensed around one alpha, calling Hall “the clear bet to finish top-5 in RB spike weeks at his price.”

Jakob Sanderson said he is smashing the draft button on Caleb Johnson any time the rookie is on the board next to Quinshon Judkins. Sanderson expects Arthur Smith to make good on his promise of roughly 1,100 offensive snaps with "half of them runs," projecting a minimum 550 rushing attempts for Pittsburgh. He anticipates Johnson walking into a 50-percent snap share right out of the gate—despite the presence of Jalen Warren—because the third-rounder fits the early-down hammer role Pittsburgh covets. By contrast, Sanderson worries Cleveland will abandon the run early in games and could devolve into a three-man committee with Jerome Ford handling most pass-downs and fourth-round rookie Samson eating a series or two. Given Johnson graded higher than Judkins in his pre-draft talent evaluations, Sanderson says the Steeler offers both a safer weekly floor and more realistic 20-touch upside, making him the auto-pick in that sixth-round ADP pocket.

Jakob Sanderson endorsed Caleb Johnson as a priority RB pick after the eighth round, predicting the rookie settles into a two-thirds share of Seattle’s early-down snaps by Week 4 while Jaylen Warren handles most long-down-and-distance and two-minute work. Sanderson argued that the Aaron Rodgers signing is a quiet boon for Johnson because Rodgers has consistently peppered running backs on early downs—Green Bay ranked top-6 in early-down RB target rate in Rodgers’ final three seasons there. With DK Metcalf as the only established pass-catcher, Sanderson expects Johnson to siphon an extra catch or two per game, pushing him toward 17–19 touches weekly. Given Johnson’s cost relative to volume projections and Seattle’s upgraded offensive line (they invested two Day-2 picks in interior linemen), Sanderson believes he offers league-winning spike-week equity perfect for Best Ball tournaments.