Josh Norris admitted he was lower on Bhayshul Tuten prior to the draft because the former Virginia Tech back is almost exclusively an outside-zone runner (139 zone runs to just 51 gap runs in 2023) while Liam Cohen’s NFL offenses have historically leaned gap concepts for Bucky Irving-type backs. Even so, Norris still wants Tuten in the double-digit rounds. The rookie ranked near the top of his class in forced-missed-tackle rate and yards after contact, giving him true takeover potential in a backfield where Tank Bigsby fumbles and Travis Etienne’s heavy workload remain issues. Norris’ only road-block is ball security—if preseason fumbles pop up the staff could bury him—but at pick 128 you can simply cut bait by Week 8. The possible November/December bell-cow payoff outweighs the drop risk, making Tootin an ideal upside bench stash in redraft and best-ball leagues.

Josh Norris argued that De'Von Achane can finish as fantasy’s RB1 if the Dolphins’ revamped guard play turns last year’s stagnant run game back into the 2023 juggernaut that produced two top-4 backs. Norris pointed out Achane lined up in the slot or out wide for 34 receptions—15 more than Alvin Kamara—and called him the closest thing we have to a running-back/receiver hybrid. Pairing that usage floor with the rookie season’s 7.8 yards per carry and league-leading explosive-run rate gives Achane a path to both chunk plays and steady targets. Norris added that Raheem Mostert’s red-zone dominance two seasons ago shows the system can sustain elite touchdown production if the interior line gels. Thread the needle between 2023’s efficiency and 2024’s receiving spike, Norris said, and Achane’s weekly combination of long runs plus 5-7 catches makes a 20-plus PPG season squarely in play even without 100-catch gimmick volume.

Josh Norris pushed back on the unbridled Hall enthusiasm, pointing to rookie Braylon Allen’s short-yardage dominance as a real threat to Hall’s high-value touches. In Allen’s tiny 2023 college sample the 240-pound back converted 78 % of carries needing three yards or fewer into first downs or touchdowns, compared to Hall’s 46 % success rate in the same down-and-distance last season. Norris noted OC Tanner Engstrand comes from the Lions tree that initially funneled goal-line work to David Montgomery over Jameer Gibbs, suggesting the Jets could follow a similar early-season script. If Allen inherits even half of the inside-the-five work, Hall’s path to 10-plus TDs—crucial for an RB1 outcome—gets murkier. Norris still likes Hall’s talent but warned that drafters paying a late-third-round price are assuming the touchdown equity stays intact; any meaningful Allen role could lock Hall into a lower-end RB1 or high-RB2 ceiling rather than the top-six finish Stewart projected.

Josh Norris said George Kittle can realistically finish as the overall TE1 and provide a Travis-Kelce-style weekly edge at a Round-4 price. Kittle historically erupts whenever Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel are off the field, and the 49ers enter 2024 with both receivers carrying major question marks—Aiyuk is still rehabbing last season’s ACL tear, Jauan Jennings is stuck in a contract dispute, and first-round rookie Ricky Pearsall is an unknown. That leaves Kittle as the favorite to lead the team in targets. He already spiked eight touchdowns in 2023 despite a full skill group; Norris projected 12-plus scores if that target vacuum materializes. Christian McCaffrey’s presence forces defenses into single-high looks roughly 10 percentage points more often, opening the middle of the field that Kittle feasts on. San Francisco frequently layers routes with CMC shallow and Kittle deeper, forcing safeties to pick their poison and creating seam shots that Brock Purdy converts at a league-leading 9.6 YPA. Norris sees a plausible 1,100-yard, 12-TD campaign that would rival Bowers at a two-round discount, making Kittle a smash in both best-ball and season-long drafts.

Josh Norris pegged Jauan Jennings as a perfect Round-9 upside chip in home leagues despite his ongoing contract standoff. Jennings quietly finished 16th in yards per route run, 14th in first downs per route, 12th in targets per route and 16th in PFF receiving grade last year—elite efficiency for someone going outside the top-30 wideouts. He produced three weekly finishes of WR1, WR5 and WR8 while topping 90% of snaps from Weeks 10-17 when Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel were banged up. Norris acknowledged the hold-out could delay chemistry with Brock Purdy, yet argued the payoff is enormous if Aiyuk’s ACL rehab stalls, rookie Ricky Pearsall proves raw or George Kittle inevitably picks up a lower-body knock. In that scenario Jennings could post a WR6 stretch run from Weeks 10-16 and even drop a 40-point nuke in the fantasy playoffs. The 49ers’ hyper-efficient offense turns every three-touchdown outburst into a top-five weekly finish, making Jennings a best-ball priority and a bench stash with true league-winning upside in season-long formats.

Josh Norris argued drafters are sleeping on Joe Mixon, who finished last year as a top-10 back yet is still going 40th overall on Yahoo. New OC Nick Caley’s background with the Rams and Patriots favors man/gap concepts—exactly where Mixon averaged 5.1 yards per carry in 2023, compared to 3.7 on zone runs. Caley has historically leaned on a single feature back (Kyren Williams in L.A., Rhamondre Stevenson stretches in New England) and Norris expects the same in Houston despite Nick Chubb’s arrival as a change-of-pace spell. The Texans can cobble together a functional line from ten NFL-quality bodies, and with Bobby Slowik gone Norris anticipates more condensed formations and red-zone snaps, boosting Mixon’s touchdown ceiling. Keep the 300-touch volume, marry it to a scheme that matches his strengths, and Norris sees a very real chance Mixon beats last season’s RB8 finish at a pronounced discount.

Josh Norris said Kenneth Walker III is still the highest-upside running back you can grab in Round 5 and has a believable top-6 finish in his range of outcomes. New OC Clint Kubiak called outside-zone on 46% of his snaps with New Orleans, the same concept where Walker averaged 4.4 yards per carry while Zach Charbonnet managed only 3.7. That fit alone should funnel early-down work Walker’s way, but Norris believes the real ceiling comes from the receiving leap: before a Week-13 calf strain Walker averaged 27.2 receiving yards per game and was one of just four backs with 7-plus expected PPR points through the air. That’s wild for a player who caught only 19 passes in his entire college career and entered the league with a Nick Chubb/Derrick Henry label. Mike Macdonald dumped pass-happy Ryan Grubb precisely to run more, Seattle’s offensive line is healthier and deeper, and Walker’s elite tackle-breaking flashes—“that Monday-night pro-wrestling throw against Detroit”—are intact. Add more volume, better blocking and a bankable target floor and Norris sees a clear RB1-overall avenue at pick 45.

Josh Norris argued Kenneth Walker III has a clear RB1-overall path after Seattle upgraded both scheme and blocking. New OC Clint Kubiak ran outside zone on 46% of snaps with the Saints, a perfect match for Walker’s profile— he averaged 4.4 yards per outside-zone attempt versus just 3.8 on other concepts last year. Norris noted right tackle Abe Lucas returns healthy, first-rounder Gray Zabel fortifies the interior, and Charles Cross continues to ascend, giving the Seahawks a realistic shot at jumping from bottom-five to league-average in run-blocking. Walker quietly solved his one knock— pass-game involvement— boosting receptions from 27 to 46 and posting 27.2 receiving yards per game before a Week-13 calf injury. That same pre-injury stretch had him as RB7 in points per game. At a mid-fifth-round ADP (pick 45), drafters are paying for mid-range RB2 while getting 20-touch upside, explosive long-run ability, and a receiving workload that separates him from pure early-down runners like Isiah Pacheco.

Josh Norris said Luther Burden could be the next Jamison Williams in Ben Johnson’s offense, not the Amon-Ra or Rashee Rice clone most people are forcing. Norris expects Johnson to use heavy play-action crossers from under center— the same "against-the-grain" concept that sprung Williams for chunk gains last year— to get Burden the ball five yards downfield with 20 yards of grass in front of him. Burden led this draft class in missed tackles forced per catch, so free space plus his 4.4 speed is “dangerous.” The second-round rookie is still nursing a soft-tissue tweak and has the usual contract-politics hurdle, yet Underdog drafters only have to spend pick 116 (10.08) and Yahoo home-leaguers pick 131. Norris framed that as a cheap stash who can bloom after the Week-11 bye and deliver 16-plus PPR points per game down the stretch— exactly the kind of post-bye rookie bump that wins tournaments and home-league playoffs.

Josh Norris called Rome Odunze the sneakiest 2025 breakout in fantasy, arguing the former top-10 pick will overtake DJ Moore as Chicago’s target leader next season. Odunze’s success rate versus man coverage sits in the 70-plus percentile, and Ben Johnson’s receiver-friendly play-calling plus an upgraded offensive line should goose efficiency after Caleb Williams posted the league’s worst deep-ball numbers in 2024. Odunze was pigeonholed into a vertical role last year (13.8 air-yards per target, second only to Calvin Ridley among high-volume WRs), but Norris believes Johnson will diversify his route tree and feed him schemed looks. At a late-fifth/early-seventh-round price in redraft—and even cheaper in many dynasty ranks—drafters get a future Bears WR1 at a WR3 cost.

Josh Norris agreed with Ron Stewart that Jacksonville did not trade a future first-round pick just to use Travis Hunter as a novelty. Norris projected Hunter to clear 80 percent of offensive snaps and routes by mid-season, calling the two-way star an “alien” who will quickly prove too explosive to limit. He referenced the composite Mike Clay/Rich Rebar half-PPR projection of 10.3 points per game, noting that number assumes a conservative route share and therefore bakes in upside. With Brian Thomas Jr. the only established perimeter threat and the Jaguars tired of forcing Trevor Lawrence to find lesser options, Norris expects the staff to abandon any early-season pitch count and give Hunter every-down work, making him a weekly flex with game-breaking spike-week potential.

Josh Norris said Trevor Lawrence is the easiest late-round quarterback swing on the board because Liam Cohen’s arrival can do for Lawrence what it just did for Baker Mayfield. Mayfield was drafted as QB22 last season and finished QB5 in points per game under Cohen, largely thanks to wide-open red-zone concepts that juiced a career-best touchdown rate. Norris expects a similar efficiency jump for Lawrence, who already ranked second in intended air yards last year despite operating in a broken scheme and playing through a visible collarbone injury. The supporting cast has been upgraded with rookie burner Brian Thomas Jr. and two-way threat Travis Hunter, while Jacksonville’s run game remains thin, further tilting volume toward the passing attack. Norris reminded listeners that Lawrence quietly averaged 20.2 rushing yards per game in 2023 and scored five rushing TDs in 2022; Baker doubled his own rushing average under Cohen (10.3 to 22.2 YPG), so designed runs could push Lawrence to six-plus scores. Add the safer floor of Cohen’s on-script reads to Lawrence’s existing deep-ball aggression and Norris projects a finish “closer to QB7 than QB19,” making him a slam-dunk 12th-round target in best-ball and season-long drafts.

Josh Norris argued that Trey McBride has an identical path to overall TE1 as Bowers if Kyler Murray finally connects in the red zone. McBride actually averaged more targets per game than Bowers last season (9.2 vs. 9.0) and remains the primary read in Drew Petsing’s unchanged Cardinals attack, so the volume floor is secure. The ceiling comes from inevitable touchdown regression: McBride has converted just 3 of 15 end-zone targets over two NFL seasons and scored only six times in 49 pro games after managing 10 TDs in 40 contests at Colorado State. Norris expects that to normalize, citing Murray’s two-year streak of overthrowing open receivers and the quarterback’s improved health entering 2024. Give McBride even a modest bump to 8-10 scores on last year’s usage and he laps the field in tight-end premium formats (1.5 PPR on FFPC) and challenges everyone else in standard leagues. At a cheaper ADP than Bowers, Norris views him as the quintessential upside swing for drafters who miss the top two rounds of tight ends.

Josh Norris warned that Garrett Wilson’s late-Round-2 ADP ignores how run-heavy the Jets are projected to be. Using Mike Clay’s volume model, New York is forecast for just 28.8 pass attempts per game—roughly ten fewer than pass-rate leaders like Cincinnati. Wilson could very well lead the league in target share, but Norris pointed out he already ranked fourth in total targets last year and still failed to crack the season-long top-20 wide receivers. With coach Aaron Glenn publicly embracing a Lions-style ground attack (Clay has them at 31 runs per game, top-five league-wide), Norris doubts Wilson can accumulate the 160-plus targets usually required for a WR1 finish. He is fading Wilson at cost in both best ball and redraft, preferring similarly talented alphas tied to offenses that actually throw, such as Calvin Ridley on a Titans unit with an almost identical team total but far more projected drop-backs.

Josh Norris said Sam Darnold is the cheapest way to bet on a Seahawks offense Vegas already pegs 13th in scoring. Norris views new OC Clint Kubiak as a clear upgrade over last year’s play-caller, noting Kubiak’s history of marrying wide-zone runs with heavy play-action. Seattle added first-rounder Gray Zusable (his pronunciation) on the interior and finally has both bookend tackles healthy, giving Darnold a better pocket than the league expects. On tape, Darnold posted career-best numbers under pressure, which Norris compared to Baker Mayfield’s Tampa resurgence—quiet summer buzz that turns into a QB16 finish instead of the consensus QB28 ranking. Factor in six shoot-out friendly divisional games (49ers, Rams, Cardinals all top-9 in implied points) and Norris believes Darnold’s raw drop-backs will exceed projections, making him a live late-round/second-QB stack with DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett in best ball drafts.

Josh Norris highlighted Seattle as the only top-14 projected offense without a single skill-player being drafted inside the positional green zone. He thinks Vegas’ faith—22.5 implied points per game—signals hidden upside. The case: Clint Kubiak is a play-calling upgrade, both bookend tackles are finally healthy, first-rounder Troy Fautanu shores up the interior, and Sam Darnold looked far better under pressure last year than his reputation suggests. Norris compared the situation to 2023 Baker Mayfield, urging drafters to scoop discounted Seahawks pieces in best-ball tournaments before the market recognizes Seattle’s ceiling.

Josh Norris reiterated that Brock Bowers is worth his 19th-overall ADP even though Las Vegas sits in Vegas’ projected bottom-six offenses. Norris trusts Bowers’ weekly reception floor, noting that Chip Kelly’s scheme historically funnels volume to the tight end and that Geno Smith is an underneath-friendly passer. With Jakobi Meyers the only other reliable target, Norris expects Bowers to soak up high-percentage throws and rack up catches that score full points in PPR redraft leagues. He views Bowers as a bankable top-five tight end whose volume can outpace the scoring concerns attached to the Raiders’ team total.

Josh Norris said DeVonta Smith is still a bargain because the Eagles were dead-last in pass attempts at only 25 per game, yet both Smith and A.J. Brown still cracked the fantasy top-20. Norris expects Philadelphia to throw more in 2025 now that Saquon Barkley’s between-the-tackles style should lead to longer drives instead of one-play explosives. Even a modest bump of two or three attempts per contest would hand Smith an extra 30-plus targets over the season, which, paired with his established 25-plus percent target-per-route rate, would vault him into weekly WR1 territory. With drafters pushing him into the late third round, Norris called Smith a clear buy in both season-long and best-ball formats before the market prices in any pass-rate regression.

Josh Norris said Ashton Jeanty’s late-Round-1 ADP still makes sense if you understand the two ways he can smash. First, the “Chip Kelly bump” – Norris thinks the betting market could be three-plus points light on the Raiders because handicappers struggle with brand-new play-callers, quarterbacks, and schemes. If Vegas has mis-projected and the offense jumps merely to league-average, Jeanty’s red-zone outlook improves overnight. Second, Jeanty may simply catch 75-80 passes regardless of team scoring thanks to his proven receiving chops and Geno Smith’s propensity to work underneath. Those receptions would offset a modest touchdown total and put him on the Jonathan Taylor trajectory. Norris acknowledged the downside – Jeanty’s goal-line share could lag behind workhorse backs like Derrick Henry, who is going two picks later on a Ravens offense projected for the NFL’s second-most points – but maintained the dual upside paths make Jeanty worth the risk in both best-ball tournaments and traditional drafts.

Josh Norris said he is comfortable selecting Ashton Jeanty at the Round-1/2 turn even though Vegas projects the Raiders as a bottom-six scoring team. He cited Chip Kelly’s historic top-10 rush-rate regardless of point output and believes Jeanty could approach 300 touches with only Raheem Mostert and Zamir White behind him. Jeanty’s 49-catch season at Boise State suggests three-down capability, giving him a sturdy floor if touchdowns lag. Norris acknowledged ceiling concerns but argued that a modest three-point bump in team scoring would make Jeanty a justifiable early-round pick.

Josh Norris warned that Bijan Robinson’s overall RB3 ADP bakes in a ceiling that may be unattainable with Atlanta sitting 22nd in implied scoring. Running backs on bottom-third offenses rarely reach league-winning status unless they post elite receiving numbers, and Norris is unconvinced that the new coaching staff and unchanged offensive line can generate enough touchdowns. Without a proven quarterback upgrade, Robinson likely needs 80-plus catches to justify his price—a bet Norris is avoiding in early drafts.

Josh Norris hammered that James Conner remains a screaming value at pick 62 even after Arizona spent a Day-2 selection on Trey Benson. Conner ranked RB13 in points per game last year and returns to a Cardinals offense Vegas pegs ninth in projected scoring—higher than Cincinnati. He owned 77% of the team’s red-zone attempts with Kyler Murray healthy and averages three catches per game. Norris doubts Benson will steal high-leverage snaps, projecting another 17-touch weekly workload and double-digit TDs for Conner, who he says should be drafted a full round earlier in both best ball and season-long formats.

Josh Norris called Brock Purdy his favorite pick of the ninth-round quarterback pool, noting that an insanely soft 2024 schedule plus better injury luck could launch him into the top tier. Purdy still finished QB9 at 18.6 points per game last year despite logging only 57 snaps with all of Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle healthy and missing LT Trent Williams for seven contests. Norris expects Kyle Shanahan’s move toward true drop-back concepts and more three-wide sets to keep pass volume intact even if the defense improves. San Francisco ranked just 14th in points per game last season; he projects a top-8 finish with everyone healthy, giving Purdy plenty of touchdown equity. Getting him after riskier dual-threats lets drafters stack the 49ers cheaply while locking in a weekly starter for both Best Ball tournaments and traditional leagues.

Josh Norris is warming to Jordan Mason as a late-round smash after CrackRock’s report that Minnesota acquired him to lead carries inside the 5- and 10-yard lines. Norris compared Mason to a "75 percent Nick Chubb"—a pure runner who breaks tackles and hits the right lane but offers little receiving value—which is exactly what the Vikings need alongside Aaron Jones. Minnesota revamped the interior with Donovan Jackson, long-time center Ryan Kelly and Will Fries, upgrades aimed at fixing last year’s dreadful short-yardage blocking. Given Mason’s squatty build and the coaching staff’s desire to lessen Jones’s workload, Norris thinks Mason could claim the Jamal-Williams-style touchdown role and pay off handsomely in half-PPR Best Ball and Season-Long formats.

Josh Norris backed Deebo Samuel as the superior Round-6 pick, calling Washington a perfect landing spot for this version of Deebo. Cliff Kingsbury’s offense asked Jayden Daniels to throw at or behind the line of scrimmage on 26% of attempts (7th-highest in the league) and previously propped up YAC-dependent players like 33-year-old Zach Ertz (TE12 in points per game) and waiver guys Olamide Zaccheaus, Noah Brown and Dyami Brown for multiple top-25 WR weeks. Samuel forced 25 missed tackles on just 93 touches last season and remains an elite tackle-breaker even if the down-field juice has waned. The Commanders are projected to score a full touchdown more per game than the Browns, giving Samuel significantly better touchdown equity than fellow Round-6 target Jerry Jeudy. With minimal target competition beyond Terry McLaurin and a play-caller who will manufacture touches, Norris sees a high-variance WR2 profile that can still deliver smash weeks in both Season-Long and Best Ball leagues.

Josh Norris doubled down on DeVonta Smith as his Round-4 preference, highlighting several new reasons to expect a step forward. Smith logged a career-high 41 % slot rate last season, and every Kellen Moore offense has funneled targets to the slot—yet Moore left for New Orleans, meaning a fresh play-caller could decide to pepper Smith there even more. Norris also thinks Saquon Barkley’s 11 runs of 40-plus yards are bound to regress, which would keep the Eagles in tighter games and force more drop-backs. Historically that’s mattered: in the two contests A.J. Brown missed last year, Smith saw 10 targets in each and nearly doubled his normal usage. Combine a likely uptick in pass rate with Smith’s already elite efficiency (WR13 in both yards per target and touchdown rate) and Norris projects a strong WR2 floor with spike-week WR1 upside that rivals any option in the fourth round.

Josh Norris believes Round-5 Joe Mixon is mis-priced because the fantasy market is terrified of his age-29 season. Norris argued modern training and medicine are pushing the true running-back cliff past 30 and pointed to Mixon’s 105 total yards per healthy game in 2023 (eighth-best fantasy asset per his model) as evidence he has plenty left. The move to new OC Nick Caley—fresh off two years with Sean McVay—should be a perfect fit: Caley prefers man/gap concepts, where Mixon averaged 5.1 yards per carry last year compared to just 3.7 in outside-zone looks. Houston also added multiple competent linemen, giving them “10 usable pieces” to find five quality run blockers and fix Mixon’s ugly 1.2 yards before contact. Norris noted Mixon’s post-contact efficiency was his best since 2021 despite playing through a high-ankle sprain, so healthier legs plus better blocking could unlock a Kyren-Williams-level workload. With round-one-type volume still on the table but every ‘red flag’ already baked into ADP, Norris is happily loading up on Mixon in both Best Ball tournaments and traditional drafts.

Josh Norris slightly prefers DeVonta Smith to Xavier Worthy in Round 4, arguing that Smith’s NFL resume offsets target-share concerns. With A.J. Brown active last year, Smith averaged only 5.7 targets but still finished WR22 because he ranked WR13 in both touchdown rate and yards per target, scoring three more TDs than expected. Norris acknowledged the boom-bust nature—Smith’s expected points placed him around WR40-45—yet trusts the Eagles’ consistently explosive offense to keep the downfield opportunities flowing. Meanwhile, Worthy must coexist with Rashee Rice in the exact underneath zone where the rookie thrived in 2023, and Kansas City historically prefers horizontal spacing over deep shots. For managers forced to take a wideout in a shaky ADP pocket, Norris believes Smith’s proven chemistry with Jalen Hurts and Philadelphia’s high TD equity provide a sturdier weekly floor while still offering spike-week upside.

Josh Norris said this is still the perfect moment to draft Lamar Jackson at the 3-4 turn even though several eye-popping 2023 numbers are destined to cool off. Jackson’s career-high 41 passing TDs came with a wild 61.4 % end-zone-throw TD rate, the second-best mark of the entire 2000s; Norris expects natural regression there. On the ground, Derrick Henry’s arrival is a real siphon: Jackson logged zero carries inside the five last season while Henry handled 95 % of Baltimore’s goal-line rushes, so those "free" short scores that prop up Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen are unlikely. The bet is that Todd Monken’s pass-first DNA and Jackson’s age-28 prime keep overall volume rising even as the TD mix shifts. Norris views Jackson as a safe top-three fantasy QB with true QB1 overall upside, but warns gamers to build rushing-TD insurance elsewhere in their roster construction.

Josh Norris argued that grabbing Tee Higgins at the top of Round 3 is still a win even if you pass on him at 2.12. Higgins was a top-three wideout in per-game scoring last year and saw 68 % of his targets within 10 yards as Tyler Boyd’s departure funneled easier looks his way. Cincinnati posted a league-leading 63 % neutral-situation pass rate—six percentage points higher than the next team—and their contract-holdout-ridden defense looks worse, meaning volume should stay sky-high. If Ja’Marr Chase were to miss time, Norris said Higgins would immediately be ranked as a WR3-5 overall. With Higgins now paid and fully healthy, his combination of a sturdy weekly floor plus contingent, top-five upside makes him an appealing anchor in Best Ball builds.

Josh Norris slotted Derrick Henry 15th overall and argued the veteran remains a fantasy cheat code because Baltimore gives him an unprecedented strangle-hold on the money zone. Henry handled 94.7 % of Ravens carries inside the five (next closest back was 82.6 %), converting nine of his 13 rushing TDs from that area. He also ranked third league-wide in share of team carries inside the ten. Norris believes that double-digit-touchdown streak now stretches to eight consecutive seasons as long as Lamar Jackson stays upright and the offensive line holds. The only real downside is Henry’s near-zero receiving role; if Baltimore unexpectedly plays from behind he loses some weekly ceiling. Norris isn’t worried—he has the Ravens as his preseason Super Bowl pick—and views Henry’s combination of elite red-zone usage, top-five scoring environment and proven durability as a rock-solid RB1 at his current mid-second price in both best ball and season-long drafts.

Josh Norris called his shot on Nico Collins, planting a flag that the Houston star could finish as THE wide receiver one in 2025. Collins is one of just four wideouts to top 2.5 yards per route run in both 2023 and 2024, joining Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua and A.J. Brown. In 11 fully-healthy games last season he averaged 94 yards and 9.1 targets, mixing bubble screens with elite downfield wins that kept defenses guessing. Norris loves the new ecosystem: rookie play-caller Nick Caley arrives with McVay and Belichick credentials, C.J. Stroud gets an offseason to absorb the entire playbook, and the front office added at least three linemen to eliminate the immediate pressures that derailed several 2024 possessions. Put that together with Collins’ red-zone physicality and Norris sees a Julio-Jones-in-his-prime statistical ceiling. If Collins and Stroud both log 17 games, Norris expects multiple 30-point eruptions and is happy to grab him in the early second as a league-winning upside swing.

Josh Norris said he is “drafting Emeka Egbuka relentlessly” because the rookie steps into a far cleaner depth-chart than other Round-1 wideouts. Unlike Jaxon Smith-Njigba (buried behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett) or Rome Odunze (joining DJ Moore and Keenan Allen), Egbuka lands in a three-wide offense where Chris Godwin’s status is uncertain after ankle and fibula surgery and Mike Evans is 32. Tampa Bay used league-high rates of 11-personnel last year, so if Godwin is limited Egbuka instantly becomes a top-two target. Norris emphasized that former Seahawks OC Shane Waldron is no longer calling plays, so prior rookie-slot usage under him is irrelevant. At an Underdog cost of 8.05 (fifth pick of Round 8), Norris views Egbuka as a cheap WR4 who can produce WR2 weeks from day one in both Best Ball and Season-Long formats.

Josh Norris labeled rookie DJ Giddens a rock-solid late-round running back because the Colts openly telegraphed a desire for a true No. 2 behind Jonathan Taylor before the draft and then spent meaningful capital on Giddens. Indianapolis’ staff told reporters they wanted someone to "take 8–10 carries off JT’s plate"—a role Zack Moss parlayed into six top-30 weekly finishes last year. Giddens offers 4.46 speed at 220 pounds and posted an 88% success rate on inside-zone runs at Kansas State, the very concept new OC Alex Van Pelt featured on 46% of his early-down calls in Cleveland. Norris expects Giddens to be the clear second back by Week 1 with contingent RB1 upside if Taylor were to miss time, making his final-round ADP a priority for Hero-RB builds.

Josh Norris argued that drafters continue to sleep on Adam Thielen even after back-to-back top-24 fantasy finishes. Despite his age, Thielen keeps winning by finding soft spots versus zone and remains an integral part of what Norris called “one of the most vertically-oriented passing attacks in the league.” Thielen logged multiple long-ball receptions against Tampa Bay and Las Vegas last year and now gets Dave Canales calling an offense that ranked top-10 in average depth of target at Washington. With rookie Tet McMillan and Jalen Coker drawing perimeter attention, Thielen should again live in the slot and intermediate seams where Bryce Young posted his highest EPA per throw. Norris believes an 85-catch, 1,000-yard encore is firmly in play while Thielen is still lingering in the double-digit rounds.

Josh Norris said Mike Gesicki is nothing more than a contingency flyer in Best Ball drafts. He reminded listeners that Zac Taylor has never featured the tight end when both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are healthy—Bengals TEs combined for just 13.9% target share in the 11 games the star duo played together last season. Gesicki is essentially a 6-foot-6 power slot who will only see real volume if either Higgins or Chase misses time. Until that happens Norris expects Gesicki to run wind-sprints outside of red-zone packages because Cincinnati’s three-wide sets funnel looks to Chase and the backs. Draft him strictly as an insurance policy for late-round construction, not as a usable weekly option.

Josh Norris projected a steadier, more explosive 2024 for Xavier Legette now that Carolina drafted true X receiver Tet McMillan to let Legette settle back into his natural flanker role. Norris said Legette’s head was "spinning" last year as he was asked to run the full route tree while playing through a nagging wrist injury that the team blamed for several drops; he never had the surgery but has finally healed. Dave Canales specifically drafted Legette for crossing routes, verticals, and deep posts—the same concepts that showcased his 4.39 speed at South Carolina. Carolina ranked dead last in yards after catch and missed tackles forced in 2023; Norris believes Legette and McMillan can flip that script, with Legette also shining in the low red zone where he already beat Patrick Surtain on a 12-yard TD fade as a rookie. He called Legette a "very, very good value" in the Round-10 range, capable of multiple 25-point spike weeks.

Josh Norris recommended scooping up Tutu Atwell in the 17th–18th rounds, noting that Sean McVay and new OC Mike LaFleur have both hyped Atwell’s camp performance and clarified his niche as the offense’s designated lid-lifter. Atwell carved out a defined deep-threat role last year, posting four separate games of 18-plus PPR points thanks to schemed verticals and play-action bombs. With the Rams maintaining one of the league’s highest play-action rates and Matthew Stafford still willing to launch, Norris believes Atwell supplies exactly the kind of boom-bust profile that pays off best-ball ADPs in the late rounds.

Josh Norris said Ricky Pearsall is the 49er wideout he keeps drafting because the rookie should inherit much of Shanahan’s pre-snap motion and jet-sweep usage after finally looking 100 % healthy late last season ("he wasn’t really himself until Week 9 or 10"). Pearsall goes in the same seventh-round pocket as Brandon Ayuk, yet Ayuk enters camp dinged up while Pearsall brings fresh legs and scheme-versatile movement skills the staff already highlighted in spring practices. With San Francisco’s offense projected top-five in scoring and their defense likely to regress, Norris believes Pearsall offers similar weekly ceilings to Ayuk at a fraction of the injury risk, making him a priority pick in that ADP zone.

Josh Norris explained that he is drafting Jauan Jennings well above market because the veteran wideout offers inexpensive exposure to Kyle Shanahan’s passing game while Brandon Ayuk battles an injury and carries the exact same draft cost tier. Norris emphasized Jennings’ unique skill set— elite run-blocking keeps him on the field, and he excels at settling into zone coverage and using “the dark arts” of subtle push-offs to create space. That combination produced multiple 20-plus–point spike weeks last season, and with the 49ers owning an easy schedule and every offensive starter still intact, Norris expects similar boom weeks in 2024. He views Jennings as the perfect late-round WR6/7 who can single-handedly win a Best Ball playoff week.

Josh Norris said Kenneth Walker III should be drafted ahead of Joe Mixon and Chuba Hubbard in Best Ball because the Seahawks have quietly built an ideal environment for a true spike-week workhorse season. Norris pointed to new offensive coordinator Clint Kubiak, noting that Kubiak’s Saints units lined up in 21 or 12 personnel on 50 % of snaps and leaned heavily on outside-zone runs—Walker’s bread-and-butter where he averaged 5.9 yards per carry the last two years. Pete Carroll fired pass-happy Ryan Grubb, and both Kubiak and head coach Mike Macdonald have publicly stated they “want to give Walker the ball as much as possible.” Combine that coach-speak with the fact Walker has clearly held off Zach Charbonnet, and Norris believes Walker owns a much higher best-case outcome than Mixon’s volume-based, efficiency-questionable profile in Houston. He labeled Walker a mid-round smash with legitimate league-winning upside.

Josh Norris argued that George Kittle should go at least two rounds earlier than his current 5.01 ADP. While Brock Bowers and Trey McBride are being drafted in Round 2, Kittle—who has already posted three separate seasons as a top-3 tight end—is sitting three full rounds later. Norris noted that whenever one of the 49ers’ core skill players misses time, the remaining trio tends to "go nuclear," giving Kittle weekly 25-point spike-week potential. With San Francisco’s defense possibly regressing on paper and Kyle Shanahan’s offense still projected to rank top-5 in scoring, Norris believes Kittle can realistically finish as the overall TE1 or TE2. That sort of ceiling, coupled with the large draft-capital gap versus Bowers/McBride, makes Kittle one of the best value picks in Best Ball drafts right now.

Josh Norris said Carolina’s front-office habits create an exploitable edge for NFL Draft betting. He noted that in 2024 the Panthers wound up selecting six of the eight prospects they brought in for top-30 visits, a pattern that matches what Dave Canales has publicly described as his "three-touchpoint" approach: meet a player at the Senior Bowl, interview him at the Combine, and finish with a Charlotte visit that starts by asking for the prospect’s football origin story. Because the staff wants every draft pick to clear all three checkpoints, Norris believes any prospect who appears on the Panthers’ published visit list should be treated as a live favorite to be drafted by them. He contrasted this with Jacksonville, who have now gone the opposite direction by limiting visits and hiding their intentions, making their list far less predictive. Norris advised bettors to monitor Carolina’s visit tracker and pounce early on position- or player-to-team props before the market adjusts.