Pat Kerrane noted that Tyler Warren’s ADP has finally corrected to a point where he is comfortable adding him—so long as the Penn State rookie falls behind Isaiah Likely and Dallas Goddard. Warren often drifts five or more spots past his Underdog average, and Kerrane likes scooping those slips, especially on DraftKings where stacks with Anthony Richardson come at an even steeper discount. He cautioned that Warren is still a luxury pick rather than a tight-end anchor, but in builds that already locked up an elite option he views Warren’s athleticism and potential route share as ideal late-round juice.

Kerrane cannot understand why drafters keep pricing George Kittle in the early fifth round. He reminded listeners that the same discount existed last year when skeptics doubted 49ers pass volume—then San Francisco threw more and Kittle delivered multiple 25-point weeks. Now the offense may have to pass even more with reports ranking the 49ers defense near the bottom of the league and injuries thinning the receiving corps (Deebo departure rumors, Brandon Aiyuk ACL, Ricky Pearsall camp injury). Kerrane expects Brock Purdy to lean heavily on his All-Pro tight end again, making Kittle’s combination of big-play ability and red-zone usage an easy smash at pick 50-55 on both Underdog and DraftKings.

Pat Kerrane argued that Trey McBride’s failure to score many touchdowns through two NFL seasons is the single soft spot in an otherwise efficient best-ball market. McBride already commands targets and racks up yards at an elite rate, yet variance has kept him off the scoreboard. Kerrane believes simply normalizing to league-average TD conversion would catapult McBride into the same weekly ceiling tier as Bowers, Kelce and Andrews while still being drafted a round later. Because tight ends are heavily touchdown-driven in half-PPR, Kerrane views betting on that regression as one of the cleanest paths to tournament-winning upside in 2025 drafts.

Pat Kerrane called Trevor Lawrence the single most mis-priced quarterback in best-ball drafts, noting that his current 134 overall ADP should be at least 15–20 picks earlier—and he would still take Lawrence in the 90s if that became market price. Lawrence finished 2024 eighth in drop-backs, added Brian Thomas Jr. and Keon Coleman to an already fast-paced Jaguars attack, and now gets an improved tackle tandem after Jacksonville invested two early picks in the offensive line. Kerrane emphasized that Lawrence’s 20.4 expected fantasy points per game last season already sit in the low-end QB1 range; the real unlock comes if the Jaguars’ red-zone efficiency regresses upward from last year’s 27th-ranked mark. Because Lawrence also offers a sneaky rushing baseline (averaging 22 yards and 0.2 rushing TDs per game), Kerrane believes he carries top-six season-long upside while being routinely drafted as the QB16–QB17.

Pat Kerrane said Evan Engram is one of the loosest ADP tags on the board, calling him a full-blown every-down candidate who is somehow drifting in the 110-to-120 range on Underdog drafts. Kerrane noted that Sean Payton has historically funneled routes to his primary tight end (Jimmy Graham and Jared Cook both logged 65-plus route-participation seasons under Payton), and Engram faces minimal target competition behind an unproven receiver room headlined by Courtland Sutton and a cluster of rookies. Bo Nix’s short-area accuracy (70-percent completion rate at Oregon, fourth-lowest collegiate aDOT among ’24 draft QBs) fits Engram’s chain-moving skill set perfectly. Kerrane argued that if Engram runs even 70 percent of routes he can out-produce Sam LaPorta, yet he costs 30 picks less and lets drafters lock in Bowers or McBride early while still grabbing a discounted TE2 later.

Pat Kerrane called Brian Robinson one of the biggest fades at his new Underdog ADP of 89. Robinson cost pick-110 last summer, yet nothing in his profile has improved to justify a 20-spot bump. He handled only 47 % of snaps in 2024, failed to reach 18 touches after Week 6, and lost nearly all two-minute work to Chris Rodriguez. Kerrane doubts a Jacoby Brissett offense raises Robinson’s touchdown ceiling, and the running back’s meager passing role (0.60 yards per route run) makes true RB1 weeks virtually impossible. With higher-ceiling options such as Isaiah Pacheco or rookies Quinshon Judkins and Caleb Johnson available in the same range, Kerrane said he is striking Robinson from his player pool unless the price falls two full rounds.

Pat Kerrane said fantasy managers should stop fading Joe Mixon now that his 2025 Underdog ADP sits firmly in Round 5. Mixon finished 2024 as RB10 in half-PPR points-per-game and logged a 67 % snap share despite turning 28. Kerrane emphasized that Woody Marks profiles strictly as a third-down satellite back— 188 lbs and ranked outside the top-60 in yards after contact per attempt in college— so Marks is unlikely to threaten Mixon’s early-down or goal-line work. No other Bengals back saw more than eight carries in any game last year. If Mixon simply repeats last season’s 18.4 touches and 3.1 red-zone opportunities per game, he can “bury” WR-heavy builds that pass on him for fringe wideouts with similar projection. Kerrane’s takeaway: swallow your pride, click Mixon in the fifth, and let your early-round receivers plus a bankable RB1 ceiling do the talking in best-ball tournaments.

Pat Kerrane doubled down on DJ Giddens as his favorite swing among the murky Day-3 backs. He read a quote from Colts coach Shane Steichen praising Giddens’ "contact balance, vision, 4.43 speed, and off-the-charts toughness," reinforcing Kerrane’s view that the rookie’s upside dwarfs fellow late-round flyers like Woody Marks or Jarquez Hunter. Although Giddens was only a fifth-round pick and could conceivably miss the No. 2 job out of camp, Kerrane thinks his 212-pound frame, 9.5 RAS, and collegiate receiving chops give him a true every-down ceiling if Jonathan Taylor gets dinged or the staff decides to mix workloads. Because that payoff looks more like last year’s Jahmyr Gibbs November run than a standard handcuff spike, Kerrane is happy to eat the depth-chart risk now and will hammer him even harder if beat reporters confirm he is the primary backup.

Pat Kerrane said drafters should be scooping Woody Marks in the 18th round right now because he checks every box you want from a late-season handcuff. Houston traded up to select him at pick 116, which all but guarantees he makes the roster and slots directly behind Joe Mixon. DeMeco Ryans has already gushed that Marks has "really great hands, makes guys miss at the line of scrimmage, and plays physical behind his pads." At 207 pounds with heavy college route volume, Marks profiles as a pass-game specialist who could fall into three-down work if Mixon misses time. Kerrane conceded the rookie is a straight-line runner who broke very few tackles at Mississippi State, but he thinks the combination of draft capital, a defined skill set, and a barren depth chart means Marks’ ADP will climb once projection models hit the market. Grabbing him now banks free closing-line value and avoids the true landmines that populate the RB pool after pick 200.

Pat Kerrane urged drafters to stash rookie DJ Giddens at his 151 overall ADP, calling him a premium handcuff whose profile mirrors Tyler Allgeier’s pre-breakout season. Giddens is 212 lbs with a 9.5-plus RAS, logged the third-best "RAT" score in the class, and posted 1.24 career yards per route run— better than Bashaud Tutin and nearly identical to Quinshon Judkins. Kerrane acknowledged minor drop issues but said the tape shows legitimate play-making in space, giving Giddens multiple paths to snaps: early-down relief, hurry-up packages, or full bell-cow duty if Jonathan Taylor misses time. With no credible veteran competition behind Taylor, the rookie owns a clean shot at the RB2 job out of camp and could even carve out late-season standalone value if Indianapolis leans on his receiving chops. Kerrane views him as a priority eighth-round swing that lets best-ball drafters fade the pricey backup tier and still capture big contingent upside.

Pat Kerrane tagged rookie Woody Marks as a sneaky late-round running-back target after Houston traded up to secure him in Round 4. Kerrane emphasized that Marks is "a straight-up third-down back"—a designation that locks him into the passing-down role immediately while leaving Joe Mixon to handle early downs and goal-line work. With the Texans fielding C.J. Stroud and a deep receiver corps, Kerrane anticipates high play volume and plenty of check-down opportunities, especially behind an offensive line he called "bad" and likely to force Stroud into quick outlets. He projected a 40–50 catch ceiling for Marks, enough to deliver spike PPR weeks at his current undrafted status in Best Ball contests.

Pat Kerrane argued that a 30-pick slide on Bryce Young turned him into an auto-click as a QB3, even on rosters originally designed to stop at two passers. The team had already selected Chuba Hubbard and both top receivers (Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker), so Young completed a cheap double stack that unlocks an entirely new playoff ceiling without meaningfully sacrificing draft capital. Kerrane pushed back on rigid roster-construction rules, noting that Best Ball Mania’s three-week final rewards diversification: three correlated quarterbacks give you multiple outs for a spike-week path. With Young’s ADP hovering around 170 but occasionally free-falling into the 200s, Kerrane thinks scooping the discount captures massive closing-line value if Carolina’s overhauled offense shows any preseason competence.

Pat Kerrane called Chuba Hubbard "very, very solid—basically a low-end RB1" if the Carolina offense takes even a modest step forward under new coordinator Dave Canales. Hubbard already handled 61 % of the Panthers’ carries over the final six weeks last year and sat top-10 among running backs in success rate on inside-zone runs, the staple of Canales’ scheme in Tampa. Kerrane’s build started four straight wide receivers, so he wanted a back whose weekly floor wouldn’t crater; Hubbard’s guaranteed early-down role plus 40-target receiving resume checked that box. Pat added that the backfield competition is minimal—only fifth-round rookie Ray Davis and journeyman Miles Sanders behind him—so a "full-blown bell-cow" outcome is squarely in play. At an ADP in the late 90s, Kerrane thinks drafters are sleeping on a three-down workload that could return top-15 seasonal value.

Pat Kerrane highlighted Romeo Doubs as the lone stable piece in Green Bay’s young receiver room. Doubs has run at least 80 percent of Jordan Love’s routes in every healthy game dating back to Week 1 of 2023, something no other Packer has matched. Kerrane thinks rookie Matthew Golden stretching the field may actually free Doubs for more middle-of-field targets instead of threatening his role. With an ADP outside the top-150, managers are effectively paying for Doubs’ floor while getting a chance at 6-to-8 target weeks if the offense remains top-10 in neutral-situation pass rate. Kerrane considers him a perfect WR6/7 who keeps best-ball builds from bottoming out when the early-round alphas hit bye weeks.

Pat Kerrane said the market is over-reacting to Travis Kelce’s age and treating him like a brittle asset when a 10th-round ADP already bakes in that risk. Kelce still averaged 12.3 PPR points last season and ripped off four separate 20-plus outings, including 22 in Week 17. Kerrane compared him to late-career Rob Gronkowski and Tony Gonzalez— both of whom produced TE1 numbers well into their mid-30s— and noted that very few tight ends can realistically post those spike weeks. If Kelce merely delivers 80 percent of last year’s production he pays off the tag, and any bump in red-zone looks from a more efficient Chiefs passing attack (thanks to rookie burner Xavier Worthy) puts another 4–5 touchdown ceiling back on the table. In Best Ball Mania rooms where positional scarcity is amplified, Kerrane is happily scooping Kelce as a cheap path to elite tight-end scoring.

Pat Kerrane recommended pairing rookie TreVeyon Henderson with veteran Rhamondre Stevenson on rosters already built around Drake Maye. Henderson’s 4.38 speed and 14 % college target share profile as the explosive space back, while Stevenson can still command early-down and goal-line work. Kerrane compared the potential one-two punch to last year’s Gibbs-Montgomery dynamic—both backs scoring usable weeks even when healthy—adding that Maye’s mobility should create lighter boxes and extra red-zone trips. Locking up the entire backfield in the late-100s price range, he said, flattens weekly variance and lets drafters stick with a lean five-RB construction without forfeiting ceiling.

Pat Kerrane said he is happily taking Luther Burden ahead of Matthew Golden in both rookie drafts and early Best Ball rooms because the payoff is worth the volatility. Kerrane highlighted Burden’s five-star pedigree, 3.06 yards per route against SEC competition and immediate connection with No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams. He conceded Burden’s floor is lower—"he could be a straight-up bust"—but argued Golden’s likely down-field, complementary role caps his weekly ceiling. Two years from now, Kerrane expects managers will be kicking themselves for passing on Burden’s league-winning upside in the late-second/early-third draft pocket where many are still clicking aging veterans.

Pat Kerrane argued drafters should welcome TreVeyon Henderson at his late-sixth/early-seventh price even though the rookie may open the season in a frustrating Patriots committee. Henderson grades out as a far better prospect than RJ Harvey— 4.38 forty, 31% college dominator and elite receiving efficiency— and was nearly taken by Denver in Round 1 before New England grabbed him early on Day 2. Kerrane thinks Bill Belichick’s staff will lean on veteran plodders through September, but Henderson’s explosiveness makes it "only a matter of time" before the coaching staff has no choice but to give him 18-plus touches. That back-weighted profile pairs perfectly with builds that start WR-heavy or anchor QB, because Henderson can act as the late-season battery once those early receivers push teams into the playoffs. Kerrane views him as a cheaper version of last year’s Jahmyr Gibbs—slower ramp, but similar November/December league-tilting potential.

Pat Kerrane said he is totally comfortable ending up massively overweight on Tetairoa McMillan because the market is still under-pricing McMillan’s true ceiling. Kerrane reminded listeners that the Panthers spent the No. 8 overall pick on McMillan and that the depth chart behind Adam Thielen is desperate for a real target earner. McMillan posted elite collegiate target shares and separation metrics, traits Kerrane looks for when projecting rookie wide-outs to immediately command volume. In the draft pocket where managers are choosing between 32-year-old Mike Evans and volatile Rashee Rice, Kerrane prefers swinging for McMillan’s back-loaded upside: the Panthers will likely bring him along slowly, allowing drafters to bank early production from veterans before McMillan’s routes and red-zone usage spike in November and December. He compared the discount to what we saw last summer with Malik Nabers— a pick that felt expensive at the two/three turn yet ended up a playoff hammer— and said McMillan offers a similar, if not higher, weekly ceiling once the rookie acclimates.

Pat Kerrane explained that Justin Fields joining the Jets actually boosts Garrett Wilson’s outlook at his current early-third-round ADP. Before the move, Kerrane’s ranks assumed Wilson might be saddled with a replacement-level passer and he planned to drop him. After reviewing the new depth chart he raised Wilson instead, arguing that Fields guarantees a stable target floor and can still deliver the 30-point spike weeks we saw DJ Moore post last season. While a Fields offense will lean run-heavy, Kerrane believes Wilson’s alpha target share and Fields’ deep-ball aggression create both a safe weekly floor and league-winning upside. He is comfortable clicking Wilson in the third round and expects the market to warm up once camp highlights show a functional New York passing game.

Pat Kerrane said he is flat-out avoiding every New York Giants quarterback in BBM6 drafts. He told Pete that he will only throw a single last-round dart if a roster desperately needs a third QB, otherwise he refuses to click Daniel Jones—or whoever ends up starting—because the franchise left the position completely unsettled this offseason. Kerrane expects bottom-tier passing volume and efficiency and would rather use those roster spots on backs, tight ends or a second passer tied to a competent offense. With a 50-pick stretch in the middle rounds where wide-receiver options disappear, he believes Giants signal-callers are dead money that drag down roster advance rates until the depth chart and offensive outlook materially improve.

Pat Kerrane explained that Ricky Pearsall is the 49er he is "coldest on" because the sophomore’s ADP around pick 73 assumes a Year-2 breakout that may never come. Pearsall produced only two usable games as a rookie, finishing with a sub-1.4 yards-per-route figure, and now competes with Deebo Samuel, an eventually healthy Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and trusted chain-mover Jauan Jennings. Kerrane likened the bet to last summer’s Jahan Dotson whiff: drafters are paying a premium for potential while ignoring a realistic scenario where Pearsall slides to fourth or fifth in line and ends up outside the weekly top-50 wide receivers. He would rather draft rookies in the same range who will be force-fed snaps late in the season, labeling Pearsall a "binary bet that could be totally dead" if he fails to consolidate targets early. Unless Pearsall’s price falls multiple rounds, Kerrane is steering clear in Best Ball rooms.

Pat Kerrane said Brandon Aiyuk is a tough click at current ADP because the wideout is coming off a multi-ligament knee tear that will likely cost him games and could sap late-season explosiveness. Kerrane added that Aiyuk spent the summer in a contract standoff, which he suspects contributed to the injury by keeping the receiver out of football shape. He reminded listeners that Kyle Shanahan has already put Aiyuk in the doghouse once, so there is no guarantee of an every-down role the moment he returns. While Kerrane will keep some exposure in case the 49ers’ efficient offense delivers back-weighted spike weeks, he is mostly pivoting to healthier rookies or waiting for an ADP dip before re-buying, calling Aiyuk "a little overpriced for the uncertainty you’re signing up for" in Best Ball drafts.

Pat Kerrane highlighted Jauan Jennings as his favorite way to attack the reshuffled 49ers receiving corps now that Deebo Samuel is gone and Brandon Aiyuk is rehabbing a knee injury. Jennings quietly logged 2.26 yards per route run last year—right in Nico Collins territory—while Brock Purdy finished top-five in most efficiency metrics. With rookie Ricky Pearsall still a work-in-progress (1.31 YPRR) and George Kittle drawing defensive attention, Kerrane expects Jennings to open the season as the clear No. 1 wideout. He loves the structural fit: a sixth-round price that likely front-loads production, letting drafters pair Jennings with back-loaded bets later in drafts. Kerrane framed it as a talent-plus-offense wager that could deliver 7-9 targets per game in September before the market fully adjusts, noting that “every time it was Jennings versus Pearsall last year, Jennings won.”

Pat Kerrane called Xavier Worthy one of the most polarizing players on the board, warning his 3/4-turn ADP could age like 2020 Rashid Shaheed if the weekly ceiling does not materialize. Kerrane cited Worthy’s rookie efficiency—just 1.5 yards per route run, virtually identical to Keon Coleman’s—while noting that Worthy needed a Super Bowl highlight to keep enthusiasm afloat. The Chiefs were bottom-10 in pass attempts last year, Travis Kelce still commands middle-of-field targets, and Rashee Rice’s target-dominant profile (3.16 YPRR before injury) looms once he is declared healthy. Kerrane conceded the 4.21 forty gives Worthy a nuclear outcome, but he pegged that smash season as a low-frequency event and argued drafters are paying for it up front. Without a material bump in targets, Worthy could finish as “over-priced Shaheed” on a team that simply does not throw enough deep balls to feed three fantasy starters.

Pat Kerrane framed Matthew Golden as a classic ceiling bet whose current mid-70s ADP is not pricing in the realistic outcome that he simply becomes Green Bay’s best wide receiver by October. Golden cost the Packers a first-round pick, and Kerrane reminded listeners that draft capital almost always trumps incumbent mediocrity—Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and a chronically dinged-up Christian Watson profile as replaceable role players, not obstacles. Golden brings 4.39 speed, a 19-year-old breakout age, and a 2.40 career yards per route run despite scatter-shot quarterback play at Texas. With Jordan Love showing top-10 efficiency flashes and Matt LaFleur ranking sixth in pass-rate over expectation during neutral game scripts last season, Kerrane believes there is a clear path to 110–120 targets and multiple spike weeks. He is comfortable drafting Golden ahead of Jaden Reed and sees the rookie as a cheaper way to access elite Packers correlation when he starts WR-heavy in Best Ball rooms.

Pat Kerrane said Dak Prescott is one of the biggest ADP bargains on the board, calling the Cowboys signal-caller a full round and a half too cheap at his current 131 overall tag (roughly QB16). Kerrane groups Prescott with the post-Mahomes "sweet spot" of quarterbacks that he projects only a hair behind the flashy names going in the 90s, yet the market lets him slip into the 120s. Because Dallas added zero pass catchers, Prescott returns to the same pass-heavy environment that fueled CeeDee Lamb’s league-leading volume in 2024. Kerrane likes that drafters can snag Prescott as a QB1, then still grab inexpensive correlation pieces—Jake Ferguson in the 130s, Jalen Tolbert or KaVontae Turpin in the final rounds—without sacrificing premium picks. If he misses on the earlier QB window, Kerrane is happy to take Prescott, stack him cheaply, and leave room to tack on late rookies like Michael Penix Jr. or Bryce Young for three-quarterback upside in Best Ball tournaments.

Pat Kerrane said he is actively adding Chase Brown exposure despite the back’s rising third-round ADP. Brown posted +67 rush yards over expected as a part-time player last year and now steps into Joe Burrow’s offense with minimal competition—Zach Moss and Samaje Perine are projected to siphon only specialty snaps. Kerrane likes the profile: third-year back, elite scoring environment, and almost no target competition outside Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. He conceded Brown can hurt roster flexibility because selecting him early limits WR depth in the top five rounds, yet believes the ceiling—bell-cow usage tied to a top-five offense—outweighs that structural tax. Brown is currently ranked ahead of the veteran RB cluster (Henry, Kamara, Jacobs) in Kerrane’s personal board.

Pat Kerrane explained why he is passing on Derrick Henry when the big back comes off the board in the late-first/early-second round. Henry is 31, earns almost zero receiving volume, and needs another historically efficient rushing season to pay off a pick that shares the pocket with elite wide receivers and the consensus TE1. Kerrane acknowledged Henry set a career-best rushing-efficiency mark last year but argued that betting on back-to-back outlier seasons from an aging, two-down runner is a losing proposition. If Henry smashes again, Kerrane is comfortable being underweight because opportunity cost is simply too high relative to the floor offered by premium WRs available in the same range.

Pat Kerrane argued that Josh Jacobs is mildly mispriced, saying drafters should treat him as a late-second/early-third pick instead of letting him slide to the middle of Round 3. Kerrane noted the probability of Jacobs simply "chugging along" as Green Bay’s unquestioned RB1 is far higher than the market implies; Marshawn Lloyd or A.J. Dillon would have to become stars to dent Jacobs’ workload. The Packers ranked ninth in combined RB expected fantasy points last season, and Matt LaFleur has historically leaned on a single back once trust is earned. Kerrane framed Jacobs as the same 260-touch, goal-line-favored profile that used to be drafted on the 2/3 turn but now comes at a lower opportunity cost next to wide receivers like DK Metcalf and Garrett Wilson. While acknowledging minor durability concerns, he believes the median outcome still returns a top-15 season and provides early-season stability for Best Ball builds that start WR-heavy.

Pat Kerrane called Chuba Hubbard his highest-rostered back so far and laid out why he thinks the market is asleep at a mid-fifth-round price. Hubbard finished 2024 with +282 rush yards over expected—third-best ever recorded behind only Derrick Henry (562) and Saquon Barkley (549)—placing him ahead of splashier names like Bijan Robinson and Jonathan Taylor. Despite the "two-down" label, Hubbard quietly drew 52 targets last season and 96 across the past two years, giving him just enough receiving juice in half-PPR formats. Carolina’s depth chart offers little resistance: free-agent Rico Dowdle profiles as a pure backup, and fourth-round rookie Trevor Etienne cost nowhere near the future third Houston surrendered for Woody Marks. Kerrane expects a baseline 60-plus percent snap share with weekly outs to the 90s—Hubbard hit 97% and 31 touches in Week 13. With the Panthers upgrading their offensive line and adding Tetairoa McMillan to boost scoring chances, Kerrane believes Hubbard can be ranked as a top-12 back by Week 3 and sees a realistic path to 260 touches. He’s smashing the pick-80 ADP in Best Ball drafts, viewing it as the same workload archetype that once cost a late-second but now falls two rounds later alongside fringe WR3s.

Pat Kerrane argued Alvin Kamara is mis-priced at his 63 ADP, calling him the perfect “running-back chaperone” for Best Ball rooms. Devin Neal was only a fifth-round pick and is “probably not touching Kamara’s role to begin the season,” while new coordinator Kellen Moore historically funnels targets to backs—giving Kamara a cushy check-down runway whether Tyler Shough or Derek Carr is under center. Kerrane expects projection models to slot Kamara as RB9 in Weeks 1–2 and sees little risk the Saints alter that usage early. He loves pairing Kamara at the 5/6 turn with explosive rookies such as R.J. Harvey or TreVeyon Henderson, letting the veteran bank 15-point floors until the kids pop. Even though he refuses to rank Kamara ahead of consensus to avoid “screenshot shaming,” Kerrane admitted he is matching ADP precisely because the role screams value—especially when the alternative picks are fringe WR3s. His bottom line: draft Kamara as an early-season anchor and ride the rookie upside wave behind him.

Pat Kerrane said he is happily scooping Joe Mixon at the four-five turn because the market is repeating last year’s mistake of fading productive veteran bell-cows. Kerrane rattled off Mixon’s 2024 spike weeks—26.8, 27.2, 26.4, 23.4, a 35.3 bomb, and 21.9—plus 17.9 and 18.0 in the fantasy playoffs, noting those totals regularly contended for the overall RB1 slot while wide receivers drafted in the same pocket were merely giving managers “usable” WR3 lines. Houston’s only backfield addition was Woody Marks, whom Kerrane labeled a pure third-down specialist who leaves early-down and goal-line work untouched. With C.J. Stroud piloting a top-10 offense, Kerrane expects Mixon to clear 240 touches and remain a weekly TD favorite despite the Texans’ shaky offensive line. Structurally, Mixon fits his preferred “sandwich” build: open WR-heavy, lock in Trey McBride or Brock Bowers, then let Mixon serve as RB1 before adding cheaper upside plays like TreVeyon Henderson later. He believes the opportunity cost at wide receiver after Round 3 is so thin that Mixon is a clear value well into the 40s.

Pat Kerrane declared Cole Kmet "done" for fantasy purposes after Chicago spent premium draft capital on Colston Loveland, whom Kerrane views as Ben Johnson’s Laporta-style move tight end. Kmet has plummeted to TE28 (overall 228) in Kerrane’s ranks and is only draftable if managers are completely boxed out at the position. With DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and Luther Burden already demanding targets, Kerrane expects Kmet’s route share and red-zone looks to crater. He advised fading Kmet in Best Ball and season-long unless ADP free-falls into the final round, noting that anyone who once clicked Dawson Knox before Dalton Kincaid has lived this nightmare.

Pat Kerrane said DJ Moore’s current 3/4-turn ADP of 36 is “absurd” because Chicago simply can’t feed four pass-catchers being drafted inside the top-120. Moore, Rome Odunze (ADP 56), Luther Burden (ADP 87) and rookie tight end Colston Loveland (ADP 120) are fighting for the same targets in an offense that finished 25th in pass rate over expectation and still hinges on unproven second-year quarterback Caleb Williams. Kerrane expects at least one of the quartet to be a fantasy disaster and views Moore as the most vulnerable because age-28 veterans with no special-teams or schematic versatility are the easiest for coordinators to phase out if younger options pop. He’s fading Moore outright, labeling Odunze only a lukewarm hold at cost, and calling Burden plus Loveland modest buys while their prices remain in the 80s and 120s. His bottom line: Moore’s tag must slide at least a full round—preferably into the 50s—before he’ll consider clicking him in Best Ball rooms.

Pat Kerrane projected Luther Burden to overtake DJ Moore and Rome Odunze as Chicago’s primary target by the fantasy playoffs. New coordinator Ben Johnson accepted the job because of Caleb Williams and is determined to remove every excuse around his quarterback. No Bear topped 1.50 yards per route last season—Moore led at 1.44, Odunze managed just 1.18—so Johnson spent a second-round pick on Burden and added Colston Loveland to juice the passing game. Kerrane argued that if Johnson is not committed to incumbents, Burden’s second-round draft capital and five-star pedigree give him the inside track to a 25 percent target share once he acclimates. With the offensive line rebuilt and Johnson expected to skew pass-heavy, Kerrane called Burden a league-winning Best Ball swing at his current Round-10 cost, saying it “really isn’t crazy” for him to be the Bears’ WR1 down the stretch.

Pat Kerrane said drafters obsessing over pre-draft clips of Tetairoa McMillan joking about film study are missing the forest for the trees. Carolina spent the No. 8 overall pick on him—the same slot that produced Drake London—and Kerrane noted multiple reports the Cowboys would have taken McMillan at 12, confirming league-wide confidence. The rookie exits Arizona with back-to-back seasons over 3.0 yards per team pass attempt and a 44 percent dominator rating, thresholds that historically place receivers in the A.J. Brown/DeVonta Smith prospect bucket. He also logged 2.87 yards per route run last year and never dipped below 25 percent dominator as a true freshman, proving three-year alpha chops. With only 34-year-old Adam Thielen and a below-average defense standing between him and forced volume, Kerrane expects 130-plus targets even if Bryce Young is merely serviceable. He is happily clicking McMillan in the early third round of Best Ball drafts and thinks ADP steam should reach the Drake-London-rookie range before he backs off.

Pat Kerrane said he will only click Travis Hunter in the early-to-mid third round when he already has Brian Thomas Jr. on that roster; otherwise he prefers to let Hunter slide into the fourth. Kerrane noted Hunter’s recent 35 ADP is being propped up by drafters chasing the shiny Jaguars rookie double-stack, a price that ignores how many risk variables are stacked against Hunter. The rookie is just six-foot and 185 pounds—essentially Garrett Wilson’s frame—yet could be logging 100-plus snaps weekly on offense and defense, absorbing a heavier injury toll and juggling two NFL playbooks, meetings and game plans. Kerrane argued any of those factors (two-way workload, mental load, size-related durability, or a mid-season move to full-time corner if Jacksonville’s secondary thins) could torpedo Hunter’s 2025 fantasy utility. If you do not have the correlation benefit with Brian Thomas, Kerrane believes safer wideouts in the 30–40 range—like actual Garrett Wilson—offer a better risk-reward profile in Best Ball rooms.

Pat Kerrane knocked Travis Hunter down to 50th overall in his personal ranks because the rookie’s frame—officially six-foot and 185 pounds—is Garrett Wilson-sized, not the rangy 6'3, 200-plus athlete many assume. Kerrane argued that logging significant snaps at both wide receiver and cornerback would put a harsher cumulative workload on a body that small, increasing injury and fatigue risk. Even in the best-case where Hunter excels on both sides, Kerrane worries the Jaguars could pull him into a full defensive role mid-season if injuries hit the CB room, gutting his offensive routes at the worst possible time for fantasy playoffs. That combination of durability questions and week-to-week role volatility makes Hunter a pass at his current late-4th ADP unless the market cools off.

Pat Kerrane said he will re-enter the Travis Hunter market at a mid-third-round price only if beat writers or coach quotes he trusts make it clear the rookie will concentrate on wide receiver duties. Kerrane is looking for concrete signals of a 70%+ route rate and a targets-per-route profile in the 25–30% range, essentially a Kadarius Toney-for-the-Giants usage pattern but with real downfield concepts baked in. Until that level of confirmation arrives, he prefers to stay underweight because current ADP steam is largely ‘self-reinforcing hype’ that fails to price in the very real chance Jacksonville still asks Hunter to moonlight at cornerback, sapping both volume and weekly start-sit clarity. When evidence removes that ambiguity, Kerrane believes the ceiling—attached to a No.2 overall pick tied to Trevor Lawrence—warrants the 3rd-round click in Best Ball rooms.

Pat Kerrane explained that he aggressively scooped Hunter in Rounds 6–7 of pre-draft contests – a slot he now views as a clear hit given Jacksonville’s QB-quality environment and the organization’s quarterback-level trade package to secure him. Holding roughly 250 pre-draft teams, Kerrane is already overweight. That portfolio cushion lets him sit out the new price tier: if Hunter’s ADP jumps into the 3rd round on buzz that he’ll focus exclusively on offense, Kerrane is comfortable being underweight going forward. He noted that Best Ball finals equity can still be captured via his cheaper shares, while new drafters would be shouldering substantially more risk for the same uncertain two-way workload.

Pat Kerrane said dynasty managers are burying Tyler Shough far too deep at 198th overall and argued the rookie deserves consideration inside the top-100. Kerrane’s age-contract formula shows any quarterback who is a viable late-round best-ball pick because he projects to start immediately should sit roughly 100th in dynasty; Shough is currently 34 spots below that benchmark. He conceded the Saints’ porous offensive line and Shough’s immobility raise sack-and-turnover risk, but pointed to 40th-overall draft capital, Kellen Moore’s quarterback-friendly scheme, and a supporting cast of Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Alvin Kamara as more than enough to generate QB2 fantasy lines. The real edge, Kerrane said, is insulation against the inevitable in-season desperation tax—rostering Shough now prevents paying a future second when injuries wipe out your QB2. At 25 years old with an almost guaranteed season of "free starts," Kerrane is happily scooping Shough anywhere after pick 110 and treating him as a roster-construction safety net with upside for profit if he simply posts Kenny-Pickett-level spike weeks.

Pat Kerrane compared selecting Jaxson Dart at the 1.10–2.02 range of Superflex rookie drafts to buying a U.S. Treasury bond. Kerrane said first-round quarterbacks almost always appreciate in dynasty value during their first season, and managers can "pick up a nickel off the street" by scooping Dart at current prices. Even if Russell Wilson opens 2025 as the starter, Kerrane expects Dart to make multiple appearances and show enough mobility (career 7.3% collegiate designed-run rate) to flash fantasy upside. Kerrane noted that every first-round QB taken after pick 10 over the last three classes gained at least a half-round of startup value by Year 2 and thinks Dart will follow that trend simply by stepping on the field. With Brian Daboll’s pass-heavy tendencies and a thin Giants depth chart behind Malik Nabers, Kerrane believes the floor is an easy flip for future rookie capital and the ceiling is a long-term starter acquired at a discount.

Pat Kerrane labeled Harold Fannin the most mis-priced player in 2025 rookie drafts. Fannin routinely lasts to the 3.08 despite elite production at Northern Iowa and 91st-percentile athletic testing. Kerrane said every concern—small-school competition, late breakout, and depth-chart uncertainty—is already baked into the price. Because managers can scoop him well after the high-floor prospects are gone, Kerrane views Fannin as a free swing at a potential weekly starter. He is targeting him in every draft, noting that the risk-reward profile is identical to last year’s Jalen Pitre-type hits that turned a late third into a top-100 startup asset within months.

Pat Kerrane said managers lucky enough to land Ashton Jeanty at the 1.01 should plan to keep him unless they receive a literal Godfather offer. Kerrane noted that Jeanty is already going in the first round of early best-ball drafts and cited Dewey McFarland’s ceiling projection of 22 fantasy points per game as evidence the rookie can produce RB1 numbers immediately. He framed Jeanty as the rare dynasty back who combines elite projected production with an age profile well below the RB apex, making him both a weekly difference-maker and a year-over-year store of value. Because upside bell-cow running backs are scarce, Kerrane argued the only rational reason to trade out of Jeantyi is if a rebuilding roster can secure three or more future firsts and additional assets. Otherwise, he is the easy 1.01 and a hold in every format.

Pat Kerrane acknowledged that Williams’ down-field speed can change games but leaned bearish on his dynasty outlook. Kerrane said the true breakout requires an offensive coordinator who intentionally designs more deep concepts for Williams—a big question mark now that Ben Johnson is gone. He does not trust Jared Goff to self-select those throws and highlighted persistent trade rumors as another red flag, suggesting Detroit itself might not be committed to expanding Williams’ role. Without a scheme built around his strengths, Kerrane sees Williams trapped in a low-target, boom-or-bust role and advises treating him as a volatile asset rather than a cornerstone.

Pat Kerrane shoved Jaylen Waddle down into his Courtland Sutton/Calvin Ridley tier, arguing the former first-rounder is about to shed even more dynasty value. Kerrane cited multiple structural issues: Miami’s offensive line remains a mess, forcing Mike McDaniel to lean on ultra-quick, underneath concepts that prioritize Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith and Devon Achane ahead of Waddle. Add Hill’s continued dominance, Tua Tagovailoa’s ongoing concussion risk, and the fact the Dolphins’ backup plan is Zach Wilson, and Kerrane sees a scenario where Waddle becomes the fourth read on a passing attack you barely want a second piece of. Another 2024-style season would crater his startup price, so Kerrane recommends cashing out now for younger assets or future rookie picks before the market fully bakes in the downside.

Pat Kerrane pushed back on the Olave fear, calling him a screaming buy in both best ball and dynasty. Kerrane pointed to Olave’s career-long underlying juice—top-15 in targets per route run and yards per route run since entering the league—plus the luxury of playing half his games in a dome. He believes a pocket passer like Shuck (or even Rattler if things go south) will still funnel volume to the star wide-out, and emphasized that elite peripherals plus a controlled environment usually translate to spike weeks regardless of who is under center. With market sentiment cooling, Kerrane is actively offering late-first-round rookie picks or WR3 types to secure Olave shares before the price rebounds.

Pat Kerrane thinks Justin Fields’ surprise $40 million deal with the Jets is a gift for dynasty managers who held through the dip. With zero competition behind him, Kerrane expects New York’s ex-Lions staff to install a quarterback-friendly, RPO-heavy scheme that maximizes Fields’ legs instead of suppressing them like Arthur Smith did in Atlanta. Kerrane pointed to Fields’ 8.0% career big-throw rate and three separate 35-point fantasy outings as signals that, in the right system, he can still finish as a weekly top-five scorer. He believes the Jets are committed to staying competitive rather than bottoming out for a rookie, giving Fields at least a season—and potentially a Ryan Tannehill-style multi-year run—to prove he belongs. Because rushing QBs who keep starting jobs rarely fall out of the top-75 dynasty range, Kerrane is comfortable paying a late-first or equivalent veteran to acquire Fields before summer camp buzz drives the price back into round-four startup territory.

Pat Kerrane argued Bucky Irving should already be ranked ahead of vets like Josh Jacobs in both dynasty and early-season best-ball drafts. Kerrane highlighted that Irving finished 2024 as one of the NFL’s most efficient rushers—out-gaining Rachaad White in yards after contact and explosive-run rate despite a smaller sample. The Buccaneers added zero meaningful backfield competition in free agency or the draft, and the coaching staff has "kept raving" about Irving’s work ethic. Kerrane acknowledged rookie-year pass-protection issues but said that is the one area backs routinely improve in Year 2, citing his research for the Legendary RB Upside series. If Irving earns a full passing-down role, his already strong 1.60 yards per route run could spike. With Tampa expected to run a top-12 pace offense and give Irving an entire off-season to add weight and refine protection, Kerrane is comfortable taking him at the 2/3 turn in redraft and views him as a locked-in RB1 building block for the next three dynasty seasons.

Pat Kerrane warned dynasty managers that Saquon Barkley is sitting at what may prove to be his absolute value apex. Barkley saw just 43 targets in 2024—his lowest mark outside of the two-game 2020 season—and turned them into a modest 33-278-2 receiving line. Kerrane contrasted that with Barkley’s 121-target rookie year that made him a 1.01 startup pick, arguing the current Eagles offense is simply not inclined to pepper its back with dump-offs. Last season’s 13 rushing TDs were driven by breakaway runs and the tush-push package; if that push gets outlawed or Barkley loses a half-step, Kerrane fears you are left holding a declining two-down back with minimal PPR insulation. He compared Barkley to Derrick Henry–style bets that can unravel quickly, while pointing out Christian McCaffrey will still command receptions even after any athletic downturn. Because Barkley “will never be valued higher than today,” Kerrane advised shopping him now for younger, insulated assets before the production cliff arrives.