Pat Kerrane warned drafters to steer clear of Rome Odunze unless the sophomore slips well past the early-fifth round in best-ball leagues. Kerrane highlighted Odunze’s uninspiring rookie efficiency—he equated the former first-rounder to “functionally Michael Wilson” after posting a low yards-per-route-run on non-screen targets despite playing from Week 1. He then cited Ryan Heath’s study showing that, since 2014, only 42 % of eventual WR1s break out in Years 2–3 while 26 % erupt immediately as rookies, making expensive second-year bets historically fragile. With Caleb Williams and new play-caller Ben Johnson still an unproven pairing and DJ Moore plus Keenan Allen likely to siphon targets, Kerrane compared Odunze’s realistic outcome to a Rashod Bateman-type WR4 season that sinks early draft capital. He prefers cheaper pivots such as Jayden Reed and will only click Odunze after a multi-round fall in best ball formats.

Pat Kerrane said Terry McLaurin is now a value at the 3-4 turn after sliding from the late-third because of his mini-holdout. Kerrane is pairing McLaurin with rookie QB Jaden Daniels in best-ball drafts, reasoning that Washington has no other true alpha—Debo Samuel would be "half a running back" if he even arrives—so McLaurin’s role is secure once the contract standoff ends. He pointed to McLaurin’s 26 % first-read target share, 13.5-yard average depth of target and 1.97 yards per route run in 2023 as evidence the veteran’s underlying efficiency held up even if last year’s 13 regular-season touchdowns (16 including playoffs) probably regress. Because the Commanders are built to win now and cannot install a down-field passing game without him, Kerrane expects a deal before Week 1 and is happy scooping McLaurin whenever he falls into the mid-fourth round.

Pat Kerrane argued Courtland Sutton is the lone Denver wide receiver worth targeting in best-ball drafts because Sean Payton’s latest pet signing—Trent Sherfield—will siphon snaps from every other pass catcher. Citing Payton’s quote that Sherfield is “tough, can run, and can block,” Kerrane expects the veteran to log roughly 27 % of offensive snaps as a pseudo run-game enabler, creating a four-man rotation (Bryant, Franklin, Mims, Veile) behind Sutton. Historical Payton tendencies—think Lil’Jordan Humphrey in New Orleans—suggest the X receiver stays on the field while ancillary roles churn. Camp usage backs that up: Sutton has worked with the ones on virtually every rep, and Kerrane projects a 95 % route rate once the season opens. With the rest of the room cannibalizing each other’s playing time, Sutton offers the only stable target floor plus red-zone equity, making him a priority at his current late-7th/early-8th ADP.

Pat Kerrane pushed back on the Addison hype, claiming the former first-rounder projects more like “our generation’s Hollywood Brown” than a future star. Kerrane concedes Addison’s college résumé is strong but believes his size and skill set limit him to a complementary role. He compared Addison unfavorably to Tee Higgins and even George Pickens, arguing those players can operate as true No. 1 options if given volume while Addison tops out as a sturdy secondary target. Calling the sophomore a ‘good professional receiver’ rather than a needle-moving talent, Kerrane cautioned against paying sixth-round prices and prefers betting on higher-ceiling archetypes in the same range. In his view, Addison’s realistic outcome is a mid-WR3 season that fails to justify the aggressive climb in best-ball ADP.

Pat Kerrane said drafters should pump the brakes on taking Justin Jefferson at the absolute top of best-ball drafts. Kerrane pointed out that Jefferson’s first-read target rate cratered from an elite 24 % in 2022—trailing only CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams—to just 17 % last season, a level occupied by names like Garrett Wilson and Brandon Aiyuk. He blames the drop on Sam Darnold’s reluctance to lock onto Jefferson and worries the issue could persist if the Vikings lean on their improving defense and a lower expected pass rate. With rookie J.J. McCarthy under center, Kerrane sees a wide range of outcomes: McCarthy could pepper Jefferson and revive the 24 % share, or he could ‘suck’ and leave Jefferson in another volume squeeze. Because of that volatility, Kerrane is comfortable letting Jefferson slide behind Lamb, Hill or other wideouts if the room is willing to pay a premium, calling him “still incredible but no longer bullet-proof.”

Pat Kerrane slammed the brakes on Nick Chubb’s rising ADP after reading D’Amico Ryans’ brutally honest assessment: "Guys age… It’s not always going to be the same as his early years." Kerrane noted that Ryans highlighted Chubb’s mileage, ongoing recovery, and need to "eek out yards"—language eerily similar to what New England coaches said about a washed Ezekiel Elliott. With Chubb turning 29 and still "working his way back," Kerrane sees little chance the veteran ever reclaims his pre-injury explosiveness. He is now off Chubb entirely, calling any price chase on a "Hall-of-Fame talent" wishful thinking and likening it to last summer’s ill-fated optimism on late-career running backs such as Zeke and Dalvin Cook.

Pat Kerrane said Joe Mixon has reached "might-be-dust" territory and should not be touched until he falls into the triple-digit ADP range. Kerrane expects Mixon to miss most of training camp with a recurring foot issue that already landed him on the NFI list, reminding listeners the back injured the same foot multiple times last season. Turning 29 this year, Mixon now carries the classic running-back cliff profile where efficiency can vanish overnight (he compared the situation to late-career David Johnson and Todd Gurley). Kerrane added that any deviation from the status quo—health setbacks, a Devin Singletary trade, or rookie Woody Marks flashing—would wipe out Mixon’s thin path to ceiling production. He prefers Tony Pollard straight up and will only "click Mixon" if the room lets him drift beyond pick 100, calling anything earlier "a horrible pick" in best-ball drafts.

Pat Kerrane has flipped Christian McCaffrey ahead of Puka Nacua in his 1-2 pocket after Matthew Stafford’s chronic back flared up again. Kerrane already had 16 percent Puka exposure but said he is now "basically following ADP" because a Stafford setback would cut the Rams’ pass-rate-over-expected and crater Nacua’s reception volume. He conceded Nacua could still survive with Jimmy Garoppolo—thanks to Jimmy G’s tendency to pepper first reads—but the downside of a backup QB or extended Stafford absence makes Nacua a less optimal first-round anchor than the workload-proof McCaffrey. Kerrane will keep nibbling on Puka shares only when he slides past the middle of the first round in Best Ball drafts.

Pat Kerrane urged drafters to pump the brakes on Rome Odunze at his current fifth-round Best Ball cost. Kerrane reminded listeners the rookie logged only 1.27 yards per route run and never topped 75 yards in any 2023 game, then cited Ryan Heath’s study showing that since 2014 just 42 % of top-12 wideouts have broken out in Years 2-3 while 26 % did so as rookies—meaning expensive second-year bets miss more often than people think. He added that Odunze’s ADP bakes in every optimistic assumption (Caleb Williams hits immediately, Ben Johnson’s scheme sails, Odunze is the unquestioned WR1) yet ignores the far more common outcome where a Year-2 wideout simply posts WR40-ish numbers that crater a Best Ball roster. Kerrane still likes Odunze as a high-ceiling swing in high-stakes redraft leagues—where you can replace misses on the waiver wire—but will not click him in Best Ball unless the price falls a full round.

Pat Kerrane cooled on D’Andre Swift after the Bears began giving sixth-round rookie Kyle Monungai early-down reps. Kerrane’s model ranks Monungai as the worst drafted RB prospect this year—"a ham-and-egger plotter"—but even that level of competition is enough to threaten Swift’s interior workload because Swift habitually bounces runs outside and ranked bottom-10 in success rate on between-the-tackles carries last season. With Roschon Johnson also losing ground and DJ Moore even moonlighting in the backfield, Kerrane now wants Swift to fall past the 6-7 turn before considering him, preferring to de-risk portfolios by trimming exposure rather than chasing Monungai himself.

Pat Kerrane urged drafters to stop clicking Travis Etienne at his Round-5/6 cost, saying Etienne “should have the third-highest ADP in this backfield.” Kerrane sees the Jaguars trending toward a true committee in which Bigsby handles early downs and rookie Ja’Quinden "Tutan" Jackson (his preferred late dart) mixes in, leaving Etienne to an inefficient satellite role. Kerrane noted Etienne’s yards after contact plunged from 3.9 to 2.9 last season and Jacksonville ranked dead-last in EPA per rush when he was on the field. With the coaching staff already demonstrating they won’t defer to veterans, Kerrane believes Etienne is being drafted in inverse order and will be a massive closing-line value trap unless his ADP sinks into the eighth round.

Pat Kerrane advised passing on Deebo Samuel at his current Round-4 cost now that the gadget star has been shipped from Kyle Shanahan’s scheme to Kliff Kingsbury’s more scatter-shot offense. Kerrane pointed out Samuel’s efficiency cratered last season—just 1.60 yards per route run outside of a few cherry-picked hot streaks—and his first-read share was only 21.8 percent, far lower than true alpha receivers. With Washington expecting Terry McLaurin to keep the vertical role, Kerrane views Samuel as "half a running back" who will soak up manufactured touches but rarely command high-value down-field targets. If Samuel’s 2023 production felt disappointing while attached to Shanahan, Kerrane argues it is dangerous to assume any bounce-back when the play-caller downgrade and target competition remain obvious. He is letting others click Deebo in the 40s and will only consider him if the ADP drifts into the sixth round.

Pat Kerrane said Terry McLaurin finally costs what he should have all summer and is now a clean click in the mid-fourth round, especially when you want to stack him with rookie quarterback Jaden Daniels who usually goes a few picks later. Kerrane noted McLaurin’s 26 percent first-read target share and 13.5-yard aDOT from 2023 show he already commands both volume and down-field work. The current slide is strictly contract-related, but Kerrane doubts it drags into the regular season because Washington simply has no true field-stretching No. 1 without him. Even if the 13 regular-season touchdowns regress, McLaurin’s 1.97 yards per route run and the likelihood of a pass-heavy West-Coast scheme under Kliff Kingsbury keep a WR2 outcome firmly in play at a WR20-ish price. He is scooping shares whenever the Commanders’ wideout slips past pick 40 to juice his Daniels exposure in Best Ball tournaments.

Pat Kerrane said he has officially moved Christian McCaffrey ahead of Puka Nacua in Round-1 best-ball drafts and will only click Nacua after the 1-2 turn. Kerrane’s pivot is driven by mounting concern over Matthew Stafford’s chronically bad back—“it has been injured since 2011,” he reminded listeners. If the veteran quarterback skips next week’s joint practices with Arizona, Kerrane will get even more bearish, fearing the Rams may have to turn to a stop-gap like Jimmy Garoppolo. A Garoppolo-led offense would slash Los Angeles’ explosive-pass rate and pin Nacua to lower yards-per-route efficiency. Kerrane already had 16 % exposure to Nacua early in draft season but is now following market sentiment, advising drafters to prioritize the higher floor/ceiling combo of McCaffrey at pick 6-8 while letting Nacua drift. He called paying full freight on the wideout before Stafford’s health stabilizes “an extinction-level risk.”

Pat Kerrane pushed Josh Downs down his board after dissecting the Colts’ quarterback quagmire. Kerrane fears Anthony Richardson’s shoulder remains "murky" and laid out a nightmare script: Richardson re-aggravates the injury, Indianapolis turns to Daniel Jones, Jones flounders, and the passing game never finds rhythm. Even if Richardson starts, Kerrane reminded listeners that mobile quarterbacks historically siphon middle-of-field looks from slot receivers. Downs therefore "has a lot to lose" in both volume and efficiency and no longer belongs ahead of players like Deebo Samuel or Jerry Jeudy in the Round-7/8 pocket of Best Ball drafts.

Pat Kerrane spotlighted Rome Odunze as the biggest riser in Bears camp. Multiple beats report Odunze running with the starters while Luther Burden sits in the doghouse, and the rookie is already showing timing-route chemistry with Caleb Williams. Kerrane loves Odunze’s 26 percent college target share and 4.45 wheels at 215 pounds, arguing the former Husky can thrive outside or in the slot. With Ben Johnson preaching a pass-heavy identity and DJ Moore commanding defensive attention, Kerrane projects 85–90 rookie targets and is comfortably drafting Odunze in Rounds 9–10 before the market reacts.

Pat Kerrane warned drafters that Justin Jefferson is no longer a slam-dunk top-three pick in Best Ball. He noted Jefferson’s first-read target rate slid from 24% in 2022 to 17% last season, evidence that Sam Darnold rarely locked onto the superstar. With Minnesota’s defense expected to be good enough to keep games close, Kerrane anticipates only a one-to-two-percent pass rate over expected, meaning raw attempts could be limited even if the team stays nominally pass-first. Rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy brings volatility: Kerrane concedes the rookie might pepper Jefferson, but he could just as easily struggle and force Kevin O’Connell to lean on the run. Given that uncertainty and the presence of another high-end option in Jordan Addison, Kerrane is sliding Jefferson behind CeeDee Lamb and the elite running backs in his personal ranks, advising drafters to fade Jefferson at ADP unless he slips to the middle of the first round.

Pat Kerrane told listeners to pump the brakes on Woody Marks and treat him as a very thin Round-17/18 dart. Kerrane dug into Marks’s college data and found red flags everywhere: a "horrible" career elusive rating, bottom-tier breakaway percentage, and minimal yards created—metrics that scream limited rushing talent. Yes, Houston surrendered a future third-rounder, but Kerrane believes that simply signals an intent to use Marks as a passing-down specialist, a role that rarely moves the Best Ball needle. He reminded drafters it’s still July; the Texans could trade for a veteran such as Devin Singletary or even Travis Etienne, a move that would "return Marks to the shadow realm." Even without an addition, Marks needs a significant Joe Mixon setback to matter, and Kerrane thinks a severe Mixon injury would prompt the front office to import help rather than hand the keys to an inefficient rookie. Bottom line: grab a few correlated Marks shares, but cap exposure and do not chase him up the board.

Pat Kerrane bailed on the Nick Chubb experiment after reading the brutally honest D’Amico Ryans quote: “Guys age… he’s been through a lot… it’s not always going to be the same as his early years.” Kerrane called it the most bearish coach-speak he has ever seen, equating it to the way New England talked about Ezekiel Elliott. The acknowledgment that Chubb is "still working his way back" two years post-injury led Kerrane to conclude the 29-year-old is a trap pick whose ceiling is gone. He will not chase the rising ADP and advises drafters to pivot to younger options like Woody Marks or even wait for a possible Singletary trade.

Pat Kerrane painted a bleak picture for Joe Mixon’s 2024 outlook. Mixon is on the NFI list with the same foot that cost him time last year, will be 29 this season, and Kerrane expects him to miss all of training camp and possibly regular-season games. He compared the situation to the sudden drop-offs of David Johnson and Todd Gurley, warning this could be the “dust year” where talent evaporation overwhelms depth-chart opportunity. Kerrane added that Houston’s backfield could get even messier if the front office trades for Devin Singletary. Given the cascading risk, he will only click Mixon if the ADP tumbles into the triple digits—well after backs like Tony Pollard—and views any pick before that as a -EV bet in Best Ball drafts.

Pat Kerrane said he is warming up to taking Jermaine Burton in the final round because Burton has, in Kerrane’s words, “the cleanest ‘just take the job’ scenario of any second-year receiver.” Kerrane compared Burton’s situation to two other late darts he likes—A.D. Mitchell and Troy Franklin—and argued Burton’s competition is far softer. Mitchell must unseat Alec Pierce, whom the Colts value for his down-field gravity, while Franklin is stuck in a messy relay with Courtland Sutton, Pat Bryant, Marvin Mims and 30-year-old Devon Vele. Burton, by contrast, only has to leapfrog Andrei Iosivas, a boundary-only deep threat who “ran a million routes and did nothing” last year. If Burton simply shows up on time and practices well, Kerrane expects him to be a full-time three-wide starter opposite Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Cincinnati’s defense looks dreadful—Trey Hendrickson remains a hold-out—so Joe Burrow should lead one of the league’s highest pass rates. That sets up Burton for immediate spike-week potential on a top-five passing offense and the kind of contingent upside that can swing Best Ball advance rates if either star outside receiver misses time. Kerrane is not fully past Burton’s rookie-year red flags but now sees the risk/reward calculus tilting positive and is mixing him in whenever late-round options dry up.

Pat Kerrane advised passing on Jermaine Burton until beat writers say he will "actually play significant snaps" for the Bengals. Kerrane detailed how Burton’s rookie year was an unprecedented train wreck—showing up late to meetings for a game plan built around him, attending walkthroughs in pajamas, and even hitting a casino the night before kickoff. Although the coaching staff now frames his camp behavior as "positive," Kerrane believes that praise is relative: it simply means Burton is no longer on the verge of being cut. Given how badly he torched trust last December, Kerrane thinks Burton has "a really long way to go" before Zac Taylor will hand him the WR3 role. Until local media report that Burton is locked into the rotation, Kerrane is putting his late-round chips on cleaner prospects like Troy Franklin and A.D. Mitchell who only have to outplay competent but limited veterans such as Alec Pierce, rather than dig out of a self-inflicted hole. His bottom line: leave Burton on waivers for now.

Pat Kerrane said George Pickens is a screaming value at his late-fourth/early-fifth ADP and is his favorite wide-receiver breakout bet of 2025 drafts. After back-to-back seasons over 2.0 yards per route run (2.05 in 2023, 2.11 in 2024) despite catching passes from Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, Justin Fields, and a washed Russell Wilson, Pickens now steps into a Cowboys offense that almost has to lean on the pass because the backfield is barren. OC Brian Schottenheimer has already singled Pickens out as the receiver they will "move all over the formation," not just park at X, which Kerrane believes locks in a full-field, high-volume role opposite CeeDee Lamb. Pickens’ ESPN open score has leapt from 48 as a rookie to 70 last season, proof he can separate and is no longer just a contested-catch merchant. Dallas coaches and beat writers are raving about the early chemistry with Dak Prescott, and the contract-year incentive removes any worry he dogs it. Kerrane expects the Cowboys to rank top-five in pass rate over expectation, projecting 135–145 targets and a realistic 1,350-yard, double-digit-TD line that would shove Pickens into next year’s 1-2 turn. He is jamming Pickens whenever he lasts past pick 45 in both Best Ball and high-stakes Season-Long leagues.

Pat Kerrane tabbed George Pickens as the clear non-rookie breakout of 2025, predicting the wideout will be drafted in next year’s second round alongside names like Jaylen Waddle. Pickens has never dipped below 800 yards and already boasts a 1,140-yard campaign; now he gets a quarterback upgrade in Dallas and an offense that should funnel targets outside. Kerrane envisions a 1,300–1,400 yard, double-digit-TD season that turns today’s fourth-round pick into tomorrow’s WR1. He is building Best Ball portfolios around that ceiling, calling current ADP "massive closing-line value."

Pat Kerrane explained why he is holding only 3–8 % Christian McCaffrey across platforms. The 29-year-old is coming off an Achilles tear that erased nearly all of 2024 yet now costs a mid-first-round pick after opening the offseason at the 1-2 turn. Paying that premium means passing on Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, or Nico Collins—young receivers Kerrane believes match McCaffrey’s weekly ceiling without the age or re-injury risk. While he will still click CMC when the room lets him fall, Kerrane views the veteran back as the easiest first-round leverage fade in Best Ball tournaments that reward unique WR-heavy builds.

Pat Kerrane is hammering Puka Nacua whenever he slips outside the top five picks, insisting the market treats him like a tier below CeeDee Lamb when his resume says otherwise. Nacua posted an outrageous 3.23 yards per route run last year—Tyreek-level efficiency—and racked up 40 targets in his first two NFL games. Even battling shoulder and groin issues, he still lapped the league; the runner-up, Nico Collins, managed only 2.86 YPRR. Kerrane shrugged off worries about newcomer Davante Adams, stating flatly that Nacua is "just better" and remains Sean McVay's unquestioned first read. McVay backed that up this week, praising Nacua’s off-field routine to stay healthy. In spike-week–driven Best Ball tournaments, Kerrane prefers Nacua over veteran runners like Christian McCaffrey and already holds 16 % exposure.

Pat Kerrane said he is intentionally near-zero on Derrick Henry at his current first-round cost in Best Ball drafts. Henry is now 31, showed clear efficiency slippage in 2024, and Baltimore appears set on working a fully healthy Keaton Mitchell in for 6–8 touches a game to keep the veteran fresh. Kerrane argued that drafting Henry inside the top-12 forces managers to pass on elite wideouts like Puka Nacua, AJ Brown, or Brock Bowers—players he views as possessing equal ceiling with far less age-related downside. Yes, a 20-plus-TD season is in the range of outcomes, but at this price that upside is already baked in while the cliff scenario is not. Kerrane would have taken 6–8 % exposure last summer when Henry was a late-third pick, but at today’s sticker price he is comfortable fading almost entirely and reallocating capital to premium receivers.

Pat Kerrane said Brock Bowers should be treated like an early-first-round pick who is still sitting there in the 1.02-1.05 range of 2025 drafts. He reminded listeners that Bowers just logged the most productive rookie tight-end season ever and arrived as one of the cleanest TE prospects on record—dominant receiving résumé, sufficient blocker, and zero meaningful competition for middle-of-the-field targets. Kerrane loves the environment: Jacoby Meyers provides a steady floor but no target-sucking ceiling, while Trey Tucker and 6-foot-4 burner Deonte Thornton stretch defenses vertically and keep safeties honest. Rookie RB Genti will soak up check-downs and move the chains without cannibalizing seam routes. The new Pete Carroll regime and quarterback Geno Smith add stability, quick decision-making, and a historically high success rate; an upgraded interior line should eliminate the pocket-pressure issues Smith faced in Seattle. Add those touches together and Kerrane projects a massive play-volume offense that funnels short-area targets straight to Bowers. He believes the market will correct in 2026—"Bowers will be the 1.06 easily next year"—so 2025 is the last time managers can pair him with other first-round studs like CeeDee Lamb or Bijan Robinson. His call: be overweight in Best Ball and Season-Long main events, even considering him at the 1.01 in tight-end–premium formats.

Pat Kerrane said Drake Maye is the rookie quarterback worth taking big stands on in Best Ball drafts. He revealed May is already his fifth-highest-rostered player on DraftKings (32 % exposure) and sixth on Underdog (24 %). The confidence comes from a convergence of factors: Vegas sets New England’s win total at 8.5 and has them favored in 11 of 17 games, giving May the second-easiest overall schedule—only San Francisco’s projects softer. Those spreads create the perfect mix of game scripts: competitive toss-ups against middling teams and high-tempo chase spots versus upper-tier defenses like Buffalo and Baltimore. Kerrane believes May’s decisive scrambling (Allen-style power with Jaden Daniels-type willingness), improved coaching staff, and modest but real upgrades to the supporting cast will translate into immediate fantasy production. He expects rushing to provide a weekly floor while the deep ball unlocks spike weeks, projecting a Stroud-like year-one arc that could push May into the massive second tier of fantasy QBs by season’s end.

Pat Kerrane said he has basically stopped drafting Will Shipley at his current 168 ADP because the rookie offers nothing but contingent value. Kerrane noted he was at 24 % exposure in Underdog’s Big Board when Shipley cost far less, but he is now down to 4 % because the market is "paying up for knowledge that Shipley’s the number-two." In a game where late-season upside decides everything, Kerrane wants backs who can carve out touches without an injury—"I’m trying to find the next Kyren, not just hold a lottery ticket." Shipley’s profile is entirely binary: if Saquon Barkley stays healthy he is a weekly zero, making the new sticker price a poor risk-reward bet.

Pat Kerrane said Bhayshul Tuten is his highest-owned player because the market has over-reacted to a single May fumble, leaving an every-down skill set available in the double-digit rounds. Tuten is already repping with Jacksonville’s first-team offense, a bullish sign given Travis Etienne’s 2024 decline and Tank Bigsby’s two-down, non-receiving profile. At 206 lbs with a 9.39 RAS, Tuten handled 81 % of Virginia Tech’s backfield touches (peaking at 94 % last year), averaged 1.27 yards per route run and consistently broke tackles. Kerrane noted that if you simply swapped his Round-4 draft capital (pick 104) with RJ Harvey’s Round-1 slot, Tuten grades out identically in his model. He expects an early-season three-way committee but believes the rookie’s pass-game chops give him a clear path to owning the backfield by fantasy playoff time. The cheap price tag also makes back-door Jaguars stacks with Trevor Lawrence and Brenton Strange easy to assemble.

Pat Kerrane called RJ Harvey a "such a smash" any time he slides into the sixth round. Whether Harvey ends up your RB1, RB2, or RB3, Kerrane is auto-clicking because the rookie’s three-down skill set and explosive metrics (96th-percentile breakaway rate at UCF) dwarf the backs going around him. He noted that Harvey routinely handled 20-plus touches in college, caught passes naturally, and enters a depth chart without an entrenched starter. At a point in the draft where veteran handcuffs with capped ceilings usually go, Harvey brings legitimate every-week upside if he simply wins the job outright. Kerrane said he would only pass if he somehow already had three running backs by that point—otherwise Harvey is the priority pick of the tier.

Pat Kerrane said Zay Flowers is the true "skeleton key" to Ravens stacks in 2025 drafts. Kerrane loves grabbing Lamar Jackson in the third, then pushing Flowers to the fifth where his 2.25 yards per route run and clear WR1 role make him a smash. The volume knock is baked into price, but Kerrane outlined several ways it could spike: a more pass-centric Todd Monken year-two offense, defensive injuries forcing shootouts, or Derrick Henry missing time and removing Baltimore’s planned run-heavy tilt. If any of those happen, Flowers’ first-read chemistry with an MVP quarterback could yield league-winning production, especially because stacking costs remain cheap—Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, and even DeAndre Hopkins are all affordable follow-ups. Kerrane concluded that the fifth round is too late for a first-round talent tied to this ceiling and is upping his exposure accordingly.

Pat Kerrane flagged KaVontae Turpin as the surprise wild card in Dallas after offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer spent multiple pressers gushing over the return ace. Kerrane quoted Schottenheimer’s July 23 comments—"No fear, speed…he’s a weapon we want to move all over the field"—and pointed out that Turpin received first-team hand-offs on Day 1 of camp. The staff is teaching him the same full-field route tree CeeDee Lamb mastered, suggesting legitimate snaps both in the slot and as a change-of-pace back. Kerrane projected a weekly line of 5-6 carries plus 3-4 targets if the experiment sticks, which would siphon exactly the passing-down work drafters hope goes to Jaden Blue or Miles Sanders while denting Javonte Williams’ touchdown equity. He compared the situation to 2021 Atlanta, where Cordarrelle Patterson’s late-camp emergence torpedoed Mike Davis ADP. Kerrane’s takeaway: draft Turpin in the final round of 20-round formats and slash exposure to the overpriced committee backs whose upside evaporates if Turpin becomes Schottenheimer’s new gadget toy.

Pat Kerrane bumped rookie Kyle Williams up his ranks after multiple reports of the third-rounder working with the Patriots’ first-team offense. Kerrane admitted Williams is still a long shot to start in Week 1, but the early reps all but eliminate the nightmare scenario New England faced last year when a Day-2 receiver was buried on the depth chart. Instead, Williams appears on track to rotate in three-wide sets from the jump, giving him a faster path to fantasy relevance. For Best Ball drafters hunting late spike potential, Kerrane likes Williams over similarly priced rookies such as Jalen Polk, whose camp buzz has been minimal. The usage suggests Williams could carve out 60-70% route participation by mid-season and provide low-cost exposure to an improving Patriots passing game.

Pat Kerrane advised nudging Tank Bigsby higher in draft ranks after a Jaguars beat reporter charted every Trevor Lawrence snap and found Bigsby rotating frequently with Travis Etienne on first-team hand-offs. Kerrane had previously faded Bigsby because of his two-down profile and the expectation of a three-way committee, but the data showed Bigsby getting more early-down and goal-line work than anticipated. That usage raises his weekly touchdown equity in Best Ball and gives him contingent upside if Etienne misses time. Kerrane now sees Bigsby as a viable late-round pick who can pay off even without an Etienne injury and become a smash if the backfield tilts toward a true 1A/1B split.

Pat Kerrane warned drafters that Adonai "A.D." Mitchell’s rookie-year upside is far murkier than the market assumes. To secure a starting outside job he must first dislodge Alec Pierce, a vertical threat the Colts coaching staff still values because defenses have to respect his down-field speed. Kerrane pointed out that Pierce’s presence limits Mitchell’s clean-cut “I’m the starter now” path that fellow late-round targets like Jermaine Burton enjoy. Even if Mitchell eventually carves out a role, Kerrane expects a slow on-ramp—rotational snaps and situational deep routes rather than full-time usage—making him a shakier contingent bet in Best Ball drafts where roster spots disappear quickly.

Pat Kerrane pushed back on the Burton enthusiasm, reminding listeners that the rookie season was a ‘George Costanza trying to get fired’ level of self-sabotage—late to meetings, casino trips the night before games, even showing up in pajamas to position-group installs. Kerrane said the current praise coming out of Bengals camp is merely that Burton has repaired relationships enough to avoid being cut, not that coaches are ready to trust him with real snaps. Until beat writers report Burton is in line for meaningful playing time—or that Cincinnati has scrapped the Yosivas/Charlie Jones rotation entirely—Kerrane refuses to burn an 18-round Best Ball slot on a player whose path to the field remains speculative and whose off-field volatility could resurface at any time.

Pat Kerrane said George Pickens is a screaming buy at his late-4th/early-5th Best Ball ADP after landing with Dallas. Kerrane expects the Cowboys to lean on Dak Prescott’s arm because the backfield is "non-existent" and the defense projects to regress, creating a pass-heavy game script. OC Brian Schottenheimer has already name-checked Pickens as the wideout they plan to move all over the formation—not just keep him at X—suggesting a full-field route tree. Pickens owns back-to-back seasons over 2.0 yards per route run (2.05, 2.11) despite catching passes from Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, Justin Fields, and a washed Russell Wilson. His Open Score jumped from 48 as a rookie to 70 and then settled at 68 last year, evidence he’s evolved from a contested-catch specialist into a true separator. Playing opposite CeeDee Lamb should force defenses to pick their poison, while Jake Ferguson occupies linebackers underneath. Kerrane believes a 140-plus target season with double-digit touchdown upside is firmly in play, making Pickens the quintessential "fifth-round breakout" a la Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs. He has moved Pickens well ahead of ADP in his rankings and is routinely overweight in Best Ball drafts.

Pat Kerrane explained why he is sitting at 16 % exposure to Puka Nacua and still clicking whenever the Rams star falls outside the top five picks. Nacua posted a ridiculous 3.23 yards per route run last season—easily tops in the league and nearly half a yard better than second-place Nico Collins (2.86). He also racked up 40 targets in his first two NFL games and cleared 2.75 YPRR as a rookie, numbers Kerrane likened to early-career Tyreek Hill. Sean McVay just praised Nacua’s off-field routine and conditioning, easing health concerns that stem from his partial-season college history. Kerrane thinks the market incorrectly treats Nacua as a tier below CeeDee Lamb, even though Nacua is already the clear No. 1 over Davante Adams in Los Angeles. In formats that reward single-week spike weeks, he views Nacua’s combination of target share and after-catch ability as a genuine overall WR1 outcome and is comfortable sacrificing some Christian McCaffrey shares to stay overweight.

Pat Kerrane said he has almost black-listed Derrick Henry at his new first-round DraftKings ADP, calling it a textbook age-cliff trap. Henry was routinely available in the late-third or even fourth round last summer, so drafters are now paying two full rounds of inflation for a 31-year-old back coming off 353 touches and joining a Ravens offense that already plans to work in Keaton Mitchell and Justice Hill. Kerrane admitted Henry could pop a 25-TD season, but argued the opportunity cost is brutal: you pass on elite ceilings from AJ Brown, Puka Nacua or Brock Bowers for a running back who probably needs 20-plus scores to justify the price in half-PPR best-ball scoring. With earlier fades (Saquon last year) still fresh, he is reallocating that early-round capital to high-end wideouts and calling <2 % Henry exposure a feature, not a bug, in his 2025 tournament portfolio.

Pat Kerrane said Brock Bowers should be getting the same "second-year WR breakout" steam as Brian Thomas or Ladd McConkey, yet drafters are letting him slip to the early-mid first round. He laid out why the rookie is a screaming buy: dependable chain-mover Jacoby Myers guarantees a weekly floor; rookie RB Jamarion Genti will vacuum underneath targets without threatening down-field volume; and field-stretchers Trey Tucker and Deontay Thornton force safeties deep, clearing the slot for Bowers to rack up YAC. Kerrane loves the pairing with Geno Smith—top-10 in success rate—running a high-tempo, quick-hitting attack under Pete Carroll, who brings long-missing stability. A healthier interior O-line should protect Smith far better than Seattle did last year, further juicing play volume. Kerrane projects near-instant double-digit targets for Bowers and believes he will be drafted 1.06 or higher in 2025 redraft leagues. Because 2024 is "the last year you can pair Bowers with CeeDee, Puka or Bijan," he is hammering him whenever he lasts to picks 1.02-1.05 in FFPC Main Events and Best Ball streets.

Pat Kerrane called Brock Bowers one of the obvious skeleton keys to 2025 Best Ball tournaments. Drawing on spike-week data, he highlighted that Bowers logged three nuclear weeks and six spike weeks last year despite scoring very few touchdowns, implying massive positive TD regression is coming. Kerrane emphasized that scouts have labeled Bowers a generational tight-end prospect for years and that he’s checked every box—early-declare dominance, elite athleticism, and immediate NFL production. Because Bowers comes off the board a round or two ahead of Kittle, Kerrane likes building WR-heavy starts and then smashing the Raiders rookie in the third: his WR-like target share plus 30-point ceiling can flip the tight-end slot from a floor play into a weekly hammer. "If Bowers actually finds the end zone," Kerrane said, "he’s going to bury the field."

Pat Kerrane said Drake Maye is his single favorite late-round quarterback and called him a true “skeleton key” for Best Ball builds. Kerrane is sitting at 32% exposure on DraftKings and 24% on Underdog—an unusually aggressive stance for him at QB—because he believes the market is overlooking several ceiling signals. First, Vegas gives New England an 8.5-win total and the second-easiest schedule in the league; the Patriots are actually favored in 11 of 17 games, yet still project for plenty of competitive, pass-friendly scripts against elite teams like Buffalo and Baltimore. Second, Maye upgrades from last year’s “dumpster-fire” environment to a competent offensive staff and slightly better weapons, creating a pathway to a C.J. Stroud-style leap. Third, Maye’s willingness to scramble (Kerrane compared the play style to a hybrid of Josh Allen’s power and Jayden Daniels’ decisiveness) supplies critical rushing juice that can swing weekly Best Ball tournaments. Finally, touchdown volatility is on Maye’s side; Kerrane noted that Baker Mayfield jumped from 28 to 41 scores in a single season and argued a similar spike is well within range if New England’s offense merely functions. Given a QB22–QB24 ADP, Kerrane views Maye as a cheap bet on 3,800-plus passing yards, 400 rushing yards, and a puncher’s chance at 30 total touchdowns—outcomes that would bury the pocket of the draft where he’s currently available.

Pat Kerrane spotlighted Tank Bigsby’s massive efficiency jump, noting the second-year back ranked 11th in rush yards over expected in 2024—finishing ahead of J.K. Dobbins and James Conner—after a brutal rookie season. Kerrane thinks that profile makes Bigsby the favorite for early-down "move-the-chains" work in Jacksonville’s three-headed backfield with Travis Etienne and Bachel Tootin. Because Etienne’s price remains the highest and Tootin is viewed as the pass-catcher, Bigsby offers the cleanest path to 10–12 carries plus goal-line equity at a double-digit ADP. Kerrane framed him as a cheap hedge on any Lawrence stack: if the Jaguars offense hums, Bigsby’s efficiency plus touchdown upside will pop; if the pass game stalls, volume tilts his way anyway. He’s upping exposure before preseason games make the improved play too obvious to the market.

Pat Kerrane said he has backed off Will Shipley—down to 4 percent exposure—because the rookie’s ADP has climbed into the 160s despite offering virtually no stand-alone touches behind Saquon Barkley. Kerrane prefers late-round backs who can force their way onto the field like Kyren Williams did last year, arguing Shipley is a binary bet whose only path is a Barkley injury. In an 18-round Best Ball format geared toward late-season upside, Kerrane believes tying up a roster slot in a probable zero is sub-optimal when wide-open situations such as Carolina’s or Arizona’s still produce backs with both contingent and emergent value. He will mix Shipley if the price falls, but at current cost he is directing that capital to rookies with clearer breakout pipelines such as RJ Harvey and Bachel Tootin.

Pat Kerrane pushed back on the Mitchell enthusiasm, warning that even a Derrick Henry injury may not unlock a workhorse role. Kerrane expects the Ravens to default to a committee of Justice Hill, Mitchell and rookie Rasheen Ali if Henry were sidelined, noting that Mitchell’s frame (179 lbs) makes him best suited for 6-8 specialized touches rather than 15‐plus carries. He compared the profile to Donnel Pumphrey and flagged that Baltimore gave Hill most of the No. 2 work last year. Kerrane is comfortable bidding FAB on Mitchell in season-long after an injury clarifies the depth chart, but is reluctant to burn an 18-round Best Ball spot on a player whose ceiling usage remains speculative and whose recovery from ACL surgery has yet to be proven in live action.

Pat Kerrane said Bhayshul Tuten is his single highest-rostered player because the market has overreacted to a May rookie-camp fumble. The fourth-rounder (pick 104) is already repping with the Jaguars’ first team, hinting at an early-season three-way committee with Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby that could tilt toward Tootin by November. At Virginia Tech he posted an 81% backfield share, broke tackles at will, ran a route on 54% of drop-backs, and owns a 9.39 RAS at 206 lbs—numbers Kerrane’s model equates with RJ Harvey and TreVeyon Henderson once draft capital is normalized. Etienne has looked sluggish since mid-2023 and Bigsby offers no pass-game juice, so Kerrane sees a clear path to a late-season workhorse. Stacking Tootin with Trevor Lawrence, Brenton Strange or Dayami Brown costs almost nothing, making him a priority hammer on Underdog (32% exposure) and an even bigger steal on DraftKings.

Pat Kerrane said Zay Flowers is the "skeleton key" to a high-upside Ravens stack because his current fifth-round ADP lets drafters take Lamar Jackson in the third, grab Flowers two rounds later and still circle back for Mark Andrews or Isaiah Likely at palatable prices. Kerrane pointed out that Flowers posted 2.25 yards per route run in Year 2 and is already Baltimore’s clear No. 1 wideout. If the Ravens lean into the pass—whether because Derrick Henry finally shows age, defensive injuries force shoot-outs, or Todd Monken simply steps on the gas—Flowers has a path to a 140-target season. Kerrane argued that drafters must be "absolutely sure" the volume never spikes, because if it does, a fifth-round Flowers attached to an MVP-caliber quarterback will bury the field. He’s prioritizing Lamar/Flowers starts and then hammering rookies like RJ Harvey or TreVeyon Henderson in the sixth to round out the build.

Pat Kerrane upgraded Kyle Williams after multiple beat reports had the rookie repping with the starters and flashing after-catch burst. While he still expects Williams to open behind veteran boundary options, Kerrane believes the Patriots’ depleted receiver room will have a package for Williams early, avoiding the Jalen Polk treatment that buried last year’s Day-2 pick. With New England likely to chase points, the rookie’s inside-outside versatility gives him a path to mid-season breakout volume, making him worth a stash in the final rounds of deep Best Ball drafts.

Pat Kerrane said camp reports confirm Braelon Allen has locked down the Jets’ power-back job, prompting a four-spot rise in his rankings. Coaches are ‘excited about him as their big back,’ suggesting Allen will handle short-yardage and clock-killing work behind Breece Hall. Kerrane emphasized that Allen’s 240-pound frame and 4.4 speed give him immediate touchdown equity in a Nathaniel Hackett offense that ranked top-10 in red-zone rush rate last season. He now views Allen as a priority late-round spike-week pick in Best Ball.