Guy Boston advises taking Arizona on the moneyline (around -160), highlighting the pitching matchup favoring the Diamondbacks. Although Merrill Kelly hasn't started the year strong, he's facing a Marlins lineup that Guy downplays after a high-scoring series against weaker Nationals pitching. He mentions Miami starter Connor Goli has been decent, but faces his toughest opponent to date. Arizona has demonstrated better recent offensive form, winning four of five and scoring consistently. A lean towards Arizona team total over is also mentioned.

Data Skrive's computer model projects a high-scoring victory (7-6) for the Diamondbacks on Tuesday vs. the Marlins, driving the recommendation to bet the Diamondbacks moneyline at -160 and the Over 9 total runs. Arizona starter Merrill Kelly carries a high ERA (7.20), and Miami's Connor Gillispie sports a modest 3.86 ERA, suggesting both offenses should produce ample scoring opportunities. Given these pitcher profiles and predicted outcome, Data Skrive supports bets on the Diamondbacks to win and a total over 9 runs.

Kingpin advised taking the over on strikeouts (5.5) for Merrill Kelly against the Marlins, noting Miami's high whiff tendencies. The Marlins have shown a high strikeout rate, and Kelly possesses strong command and consistent performance that should allow him to navigate through the Miami lineup efficiently. Given Miami's susceptibility to strikeouts, Kingpin projected at least 6 strikeouts for Kelly in this favorable matchup.

Mike Noblin recommended betting the Over 4.5 strikeouts for Merrill Kelly despite his early-season struggles. Noblin pointed out Kelly's rough start was largely due to tough matchups against the Yankees, Cubs, and Orioles—teams that don't strike out often. Noblin highlighted the Marlins as an ideal opponent, noting Miami's second-highest K-rate in baseball against right-handed pitchers and the Marlins' lack of experience facing Kelly. Additionally, he emphasized that Miami's lineup includes five hitters with strikeout rates exceeding 25%. Noblin set Kelly's adjusted strikeout median at 5.5 based on Miami's weaknesses and believes this is the perfect 'buy low' scenario for Kelly.

Greg Peterson recommended betting against Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks, noting Kelly's struggles through three starts this season. Kelly has allowed 13 runs (12 earned) in just 15 innings pitched, and he's shown significant control issues with 5.6 walks per nine innings. His early indicators like a 6.67 fielding independent pitching (FIP) suggest the struggles are legitimate and potentially worsening. Meanwhile, Miami's lineup is averaging a strong 5.1 runs per game at home, further adding to Peterson's optimism for the Marlins, who he handicapped at +127 but are currently priced at +145.

Kenny G is backing the Arizona Diamondbacks against the Marlins, highlighting pitcher Merrill Kelly. Despite Kelly's inflated 7.20 ERA (mostly due to one rough outing against the Yankees), he’s looked strong outside that game with impressive outings against the Cubs and Orioles. Kenny emphasized the Diamondbacks bullpen has excelled early in the season, providing a significant pitching edge over Miami. Arizona's offense is also trending positively, already ranking top five in MLB for slugging and on-base percentage. Conversely, the Marlins bullpen has struggled (posting a 4.50 ERA), and starter Connor Gillespie hasn’t secured team wins yet this season. Given these advantages, Kenny confidently recommends the Diamondbacks at -166.

Dana Lane sees professional money coming early on Miami, pushing the price down slightly after Arizona originally opened as high as -$1.74. Lane suggested that public money will likely come later, bringing the number back closer to -$1.70 by first pitch. Noting current betting patterns, 84% of the money is already on the Diamondbacks even at a lower price. Lane expects late public action to move the line back up, recommending bettors who want Arizona should act soon before the line climbs.

Just A Bet Outside gave a strong endorsement to the Miami Marlins team total over 3.5 runs at -104 odds vs the Arizona Diamondbacks. He pointed out that despite appearances, the Marlins' offense has quietly been productive, going over 3.5 runs in 11 of their first 15 games, averaging 4.33 runs per game. Moreover, they've exceeded this total in eight of their first 10 home games, averaging 5.1 runs per game at home. He specifically praised the top of the lineup performers like Xavier Edwards and Griffin Conine, who have set the tone offensively. Just A Bet Outside believes the Marlins will once again clear the 3.5 run total comfortably.