The tout also recommended the full-game under. Matthew Boyd has surrendered two or fewer runs in five of seven outings and Chicago pitching has held opponents to four runs or less in six of eight. Griffin Canning sports a 1.80 ERA at Citi Field and New York has allowed four runs or fewer in six straight home dates. With the Cubs offense sputtering—two runs in Friday’s opener—and three of the Mets’ last four games already staying under, Cash Out Sports Picks forecast another pitcher-friendly finish.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Mets on the money line, noting multiple edges. Griffin Canning has delivered three earned runs across 15 home innings and New York has won six straight behind him. The Mets bullpen owns a 3.16 ERA while Chicago’s relief corps is reeling at 4.57 after losing four arms. Offensively, New York’s bats have caught fire—61 hits and 34 runs in the last seven games—compared to just 40 hits and 23 runs for the Cubs, who rank 28th in batting average over the past week. Chicago is 0-3 in Matthew Boyd’s road starts and the Mets are 14-4 at Citi Field, all of which led the tout to play New York straight up.

Guy Boston took a value stab on the Cubs at +140 with a lean to the under 8 because of blustery conditions at Wrigley. Forecast shows 14-mph winds straight in from center, historically shaving run expectancy by roughly 18%. While Tyler Megill owns the raw pitching edge (2.87 ERA, 28% K-rate), Boston noted the weather minimizes that gap and gives the Cubs’ opener Brad Keller plus top prospect Cade Horton a better chance to hang around. Chicago’s offense has slumped (losses in four of five), but the club still ranks 10th in hard-hit rate and draws the friendlier hitting environment whenever the wind lets up. Conversely, New York’s bullpen is down Sean Reid-Foley and worked 9.1 innings the last two nights, which could force Megill to push deeper than usual. Boston therefore preferred the dog price on Chicago alongside an under, banking on the marine-layer-like wind to suppress the long ball.

Bryan Power recommended the under 9 in Cubs–Mets. New York ranks second in MLB at just 2.53 runs allowed per home game and hands the ball to Tylor Megill, who has yielded four or fewer hits in five of seven starts. Chicago counters with a bullpen game opened by Brad Keller, with highly-touted prospect Cade Horton potentially following. Despite the Cubs leading the majors at 5.77 runs per game, Power trusts Citi Field’s run-suppressing environment and the Mets’ pitching to keep scoring muted. Last night’s 7-2 final produced only nine runs, reinforcing his view that the current total is too high.

Guy Boston played Francisco Lindor over 0.5 hits at ‑235. Lindor has logged a hit in 8 of his last 10 and 29 of 38 overall (76 %). He is red-hot at Citi Field, reaching in 17 of his last 19 home games (1.7 hits per). Against the Cubs he has cashed this prop in five of eight recent meetings and is coming off a three-hit night. Brad Keller, likely opponent, is getting torched by left-handed batters this season (.407 average, .550 BABIP, 10.13 ERA in a 30-batter sample). Lindor will bat left-handed, giving him a sizeable platoon edge and making a single hit the most probable outcome.

Kenny G recommended laying the –155 price on the Mets against the Cubs. Chicago is turning the ball over to long-reliever Brad Keller for his first start of the season, telegraphing a full bullpen game from a relief corps that owns a 4.51 ERA. That same pen has blown leads repeatedly and now faces a New York lineup that ranks top-10 in runs and average and has scored 7, 7, 1, 5 and 4 runs in its last five. He expects Tylor Megill, despite two shaky outings, to bounce back at Citi Field where the Mets are 13-3. New York’s bullpen is top-six in MLB, giving him confidence they can protect any lead. With the Cubs offense in a funk (2, 1, 5, 9 and 0 runs over the past five) and Chicago only +130 as the dog, Kenny was happy to pay the tax on the hotter, deeper home side.

Data Skrive projected a 5-4 final and recommended the Under 9 despite Wrigley’s reputation for offense. Key factors: Megill has yet to allow more than three earned in any start, and the Mets’ bullpen backs him with the second-best ERA in MLB. On the other side, Chicago’s relief corps owns a respectable 4.01 ERA and Counsell confirmed Keller will be treated as a multi-inning opener before turning to the stronger arms. Weather models call for 10-12 mph wind blowing in from right, further suppressing power in a park where New York already averages just 1.2 HR per game. The Mets are 15-24 to the under and the Cubs counter with a 15-run median total, so a tightly managed pitching plan plus neutralizing wind gives value to the Under at standard juice.

Data Skrive advised laying the -152 moneyline with the Mets on Saturday at Wrigley. Their model leans on several edges: 1) Tylor Megill owns a 2.50 ERA and 11.0 K/9 through 36 2/3 IP, while Chicago is opting for a bullpen game head-lined by former reliever Brad Keller making his first start of the year. 2) New York’s pitching staff boasts the second-best team ERA in baseball (2.88) and the fifth-best strikeout rate (9.3 K/9), a bad matchup for a Cubs lineup that strikes out 8.2 times per game. 3) The Mets have cashed 20 of 29 games (69%) when listed as a favorite and are 8-6 (57.1%) in the exact ‑152 or shorter price band. 4) Chicago enters on a three-game skid and is just 47.1% as a dog this season. With New York ranking seventh in runs per game (4.8) and ninth in homers, Data Skrive expects their offensive floor plus the clear mound advantage to justify swallowing the juice.

Cash Out Sports Picks also played the full-game total over, arguing that an inexperienced starter or a patched-together Cubs bullpen sets the stage for a run-fest. He noted the Mets have cleared the number in three of their last five and are pushing nearly five runs per game during that stretch. Chicago’s lineup is no slouch either: a .258 team average, 55 homers already, and an .849 OPS with runners in scoring position—second best in MLB. Even New York’s middle-of-the-pack RISP mark (.729, 15th) suggests additional scoring upside given the favorable matchup. With the Cubs averaging just under four runs in their last six and Megill rarely pitching deep, the tout projected plenty of plate appearances against both bullpens. Add in warm spring conditions and two lineups that have excelled in clutch spots lately, and he concluded the over is the logical totals play.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Mets on the money line for Saturday’s game, laying out a clear pitching and bullpen edge. He explained that Chicago is either promoting top prospect Kate Horton for his MLB debut or piecing together a bullpen start headed by Chris Flexen, a combo that offers little reliability. New York counters with Tylor Megill, who has been quietly efficient—just 27 hits and 2 homers allowed over 36 innings while punching out 45. Once Megill exits, the tout trusts a Mets relief corps that ranks 6th in the majors with a 3.13 ERA, compared to the Cubs’ 21st-ranked pen (4.51 ERA). He also hammered home Citi Field splits: New York is 14-3 at home and has taken four of the last five meetings with Chicago. With the Mets in their preferred park, a superior starter, and the much sturdier late-inning group, he felt laying the modest juice on the money line was the smartest path.

Mike Maher said Colin Rea is the ideal add-and-start in weekly leagues because he draws two bottom-five offenses: Monday at home against Miami and Sunday versus the White Sox. Maher likes that both outings are in Wrigley, notes Miami’s MLB-worst .613 OPS and Chicago’s South Side rivals ranking 29th in runs. Rea’s walk rate (6.3%) and ground-ball tilt make him relatively safe in those parks, and he is rostered in fewer than 15 % of Yahoo leagues, giving streamers an easy path to volume without many replacement-level alternatives on the slate.

Kenny G leaned toward the Cubs at +130, noting that Jameson Taillon has strung together three sharp starts (2.12 ERA over 17.0 IP versus Arizona, Philadelphia and Milwaukee) while the Mets’ Clay Holmes has cruised against softer competition. New York is 5-0 in Holmes’ last five outings, but those wins came against bottom-tier offenses, and Holmes just surrendered eight hits to the Cardinals. Kenny likes Chicago’s 12-7 road record and top-five offense (1st in runs, 5th in average) despite a recent lull. He acknowledged the bullpen gap (Mets 3.13 ERA vs Cubs 4.58) but believes Taillon can work deep enough to shorten that mismatch. At +130, he sees "intriguing" value on the north-siders to spring the upset.

Lonte Smith echoed the Over 7.5, calling the price "short, short, short." He wanted to back the Mets but balked at −160 because their once-elite bullpen owns a 4.00 ERA across the last ten outings. Chicago’s relief corps is just as leaky, and even though Taillon has allowed two or fewer in four straight, Lonte expects plenty of traffic because the Mets are slugging .280/.350/.450 versus righties in that same stretch. He highlighted a path to eight runs: four apiece in regulation or three each with an extra-innings bump where the automatic runner often detonates totals. With both offenses ranked top-10 in wRC+, Smith labeled the over his best play in the series opener.

Scott Reichel grabbed Over 7.5 in Cubs–Mets, arguing the market is pricing the game like a pair of aces are on the hill instead of Jameson Taillon vs. Jordan Holmes. He acknowledged Holmes’ tidy 2.95 ERA but stressed that Wrigley winds are irrelevant in Citi Field, where the Mets mash (13-3 at home, .290 average vs right-handers over the last ten). Taillon has limited damage lately, yet a low hit-rate is flirting with regression against a New York lineup finally sparking thanks to Juan Soto. Reichel also flagged both bullpens trending the wrong way—Mets 4.00 ERA last ten, Cubs similarly shaky—so even a 3-3 game heads could pop the over late or in extras.

Donaldson laid two units on the Cubs +1 run, arguing Jameson Taillon’s underlying metrics support his hot start while Mets opener-turned-starter Clay Holmes is overdue for negative regression from a sub-3.00 ERA that outstrips his peripherals. The Cubs offense owns one of MLB’s better wRC+ marks versus right-handers, so Donaldson trusts them to score even in Citi Field. Because Chicago’s rotation lacks brand-name recognition, he believes the market is still discounting them, making the flat +1 an attractive safety net if the game is tight late.

Martin laid –133 with the Mets behind Clay Holmes, stressing New York’s clear bullpen and form advantages. The Mets sit at 24-14 (10 games over .500) and have won four of Holmes’ last five outings while the right-hander sports a sub-3.00 ERA, 2.10 FIP, and has issued zero walks in his last two starts. Opposing starter Jameson Taillon owns roughly a 4.00 ERA/FIP combo, but the bigger gap is in relief: Martin’s numbers grade the Mets’ pen top-10 and the Cubs’ bottom-10. With Chicago dropping three of its last four, he expects the hotter lineup and stronger late-inning arms to cash the home favorite.

Chris Ruffolo advised taking the Chicago Cubs as plus-money underdogs on May 9, 2025. He pointed to Jameson Taillon’s current form—three runs or fewer allowed in six straight starts with four quality starts—and his career dominance of the Mets (4-0 in his last five outings, 1.53 ERA, including 14⅓ IP of two-run ball across two meetings last season). Ruffolo noted the Cubs’ lineup remains one of MLB’s most productive, not just versus lefties but solid against right-handed pitching as well, and he expects them to scratch out a few runs against Clay Holmes. Holmes is coming off a quality start but has managed only five strikeouts over his last two road appearances and showed volatility at home earlier in the year (four runs allowed to Miami despite 10 Ks). With Tyion routinely giving Chicago a chance to win and Holmes’ whiff rate dipping, Ruffolo sees value on the Cubs moneyline in what he projects as another low-scoring pitchers’ duel where the price is simply wrong.

He also played the full-game Under, citing a chilly, rainy forecast, two rested bullpens after Thursday off, and a pair of reliable starters in Taillon and Holmes who both boast favorable histories against Friday’s opponent. The Under has already cashed in 14 of the Mets’ last 23 games following a win, and with both division leaders still trying to find offensive rhythm, he expects a low-scoring grinder.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised taking the Cubs on the moneyline at Citi Field. He pointed out that Jameson Taillon owns strong career numbers versus the Mets, including two quality starts against them last season, and Chicago quietly has the second-best road record in baseball. New York starter Clay Holmes has been hot, but the tout expects some regression and thinks oddsmakers are over-valuing the Mets’ home-field edge. With both clubs coming off a rest day, he sees Chicago’s price as the value side to open the series.

Mike Noblin recommended grabbing the Mets at -133 as soon as books opened, arguing the number should drift closer to -150 by first pitch. His conviction stems from Clay Holmes’ seamless transition from Yankee closer to Met starter (4-1, 2.95 ERA) and a sinker that still sits 94 mph and generates weak contact. Noblin expects Holmes to neutralize Chicago’s deep lineup for five-plus innings and then hand things to a bullpen he rates far superior to the Cubs’ relief corps. On the other side, Jameson Taillon’s middling velocity and tendency to hang breaking balls give the Mets’ bats a ceiling edge. With both the starting-pitching and bullpen matchups leaning New York, Noblin labeled the Mets an undervalued home favorite worth locking in early.

Just A Bet Outside grabbed Chicago at +136, arguing the pitching matchup is closer than the odds suggest. Jameson Taillon owns a 3.86 ERA, 4.18 xERA and an elite 1.05 WHIP; he has allowed only 4–7 total base-runners in each of his last seven starts and two or fewer earned runs in four straight while facing Arizona, Philadelphia, San Diego and Milwaukee. Mets starter Clay Holmes has converted well from reliever to starter but has faced a soft slate: St. Louis twice, Washington, Miami twice, Minnesota during their slump, and a scuffling Houston lineup. The Cubs rank No. 2 in road WRC+, No. 1 in OPS and ISO versus right-handers, while Lindor, Soto and Taylor are just 4-for-35 with 13 strikeouts against Taillon lifetime. Bullpen edge leans New York, yet both pens are fully rested, and the host believes Chicago’s offense tags Holmes before that matters. Value play: Cubs moneyline at plus money.

Peterson played Over 7.5 (projected 8.3) with the Cubs riding MLB’s top offense at 5.9 runs a night. Chicago’s Jameson Taillon owns a 3.86 ERA but is giving up 1.4 HR/9, while the Cubs’ bullpen sits 23rd with a 4.53 ERA. Mets starter Clay Holmes has yet to allow a homer and sports a 2.95 ERA, but his strikeout dip (only five K’s in his last 11 innings) and 3.2 BB/9 suggest regression. New York’s pen is better (3.18 ERA, 8th), yet Peterson expects both lineups to cash in against middling command and fly-ball tendencies, making the posted total too short.