JD Bets backed Bryan Reynolds to clear 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -130 against Colin Rea. He pointed out that Reynolds owns a .583 average (7-for-12) with a 1.50 OPS and one homer lifetime off Rea, calling 12 plate appearances "plenty of data" to trust. The Pirates return home where Reynolds’ wOBA is 39 points higher, and Rea has allowed a .349 OBP to left-handed bats this season. Wind isn’t a factor inside PNC tonight, and with neither team striking out much, JD expects Pittsburgh’s three-hole hitter to see at least four trips, making two total bases or a run+RBI very attainable.

Drew Martin backed the Cubs as +115 underdogs at PNC Park, stressing how quietly dominant Colin Rea has been. Rea owns a 0.95 ERA through three starts versus the Phillies, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks and has allowed only two earned runs in 19 innings with a sparkling 19-to-3 K/BB ratio. Chicago brings a +50 run-differential and the more complete lineup against Paul Skenes, whose prospect buzz is inflating the price. Martin argued the market move from Pirates –150 to –120 is justified and that the Cubs’ superior bats and Rea’s current form make them the side to bet.

Scott Reichel recommended attacking the same matchup by betting the Pirates team-total under (full game or even F5). He noted the market is inflating Pittsburgh’s number simply because Paul Skenes is on the mound, yet that does nothing for an offense that rarely supplies him with support. As the home team the Bucs may lose a plate appearance, and Reichel doubts they clear 3.5—or even a juiced 4.5—runs against a locked-in Colin Rea. He is willing to "dare them to actually hit the ball for once," pointing out that Pittsburgh ranks bottom-five in runs per game and continues to struggle against right-handed pitching.

Dylan Rockford said the best way to attack Paul Skenes vs Colin Rea is the first-five innings under. Rea owns a 0.96 ERA and has surrendered only two runs, zero homers, and three walks all April while facing strong offenses such as the Phillies, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Rangers. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is batting just .225 against right-handers and averages only 3.4 runs per game at PNC Park. Rockford expects Skenes—coming off a bounce-back effort versus the Dodgers—to quiet the red-hot Cubs bats the first two trips through the order. With both starters in form and the Pirates offense a liability, he projects a low-scoring start and prefers the F5 under to a side.

Eric Lindquist leaned toward taking the Cubs money-line in Thursday’s early game at PNC Park. He pointed out that Colin Rea has quietly posted a 35.2 % hard-hit rate and a .287 xwOBA, while Paul Skenes still owns only a handful of big-league starts. With wind blowing out to left but the park itself suppressing run-scoring, Lindquist feels the superior lineup and what he calls the "better pitcher" can be had at plus money. If he fires on any of the morning windows, this is the one he would bet.

Bettor Mark said to keep riding the Paul Skenes fade by grabbing Chicago at +125 (or +1.5 on the run line). Skenes still owns a 2.39 ERA, sub-1.00 WHIP and is holding hitters under .200 while averaging 6+ innings, but Mark thinks Pittsburgh’s conservative pitch-count management will expose a shaky bullpen late. He trusts the 18-13 Cubs lineup more than the Pirates’ inconsistent bats, especially in a wet forecast that could shorten Skenes’ outing. In a likely 1–0 or 2–1 game through five, Mark expects Chicago to break through late and cash the plus money.

B Wade advised playing Ke'Bryan Hayes to record a single rather than just a hit because Hayes has singled in 10 straight games—every hit during that streak has been a one-bagger. Books are hanging a hit line around –180 yet listing the single at roughly –125, giving bettors much better juice on what Hayes actually does. He draws Colin Rea, and although the Pirate third-baseman is only 1-for-3 off Rea, he owns a .269 average versus right-handers compared with his overall .245 mark, reinforcing the edge.

Kenny G said to take the Cubs at +135 because he expects their league-best offense (181 runs, 2nd in AVG and OBP) to scrape a couple of early runs off Paul Skenes and then do real damage once the Pirates’ merely average bullpen (3.83 ERA) takes over. He trusts spot starter Colin Rea, who owns a 0.96 ERA through three outings against playoff-caliber lineups, to keep it close for 4–5 frames while Chicago’s bats go to work. The Cubs are 9-5 on the road and 18-10-2 to the over, signalling consistent run production, whereas Pittsburgh’s bats are cold (25th in runs, 26th in AVG, scored 0–4 runs in four of their last five). Even though Chicago’s bullpen is “pretty atrocious,” Kenny expects their offensive edge to outweigh that weakness and likes the full-game moneyline, noting bettors who fear the pen could hedge with a Pirates first-five play.

Just A Bet Outside advised taking the Cubs at +135, calling it his underdog play of the day. He acknowledged Paul Skenes is a future ace but stressed the rookie’s 3.79 ERA and .211 average-against at home versus a 0.96 ERA on the road, a split that mirrors last season. Colin Rea counters with a 0.96 ERA, 25 % strike-out rate, and only five hits max allowed in any start while holding opponents to minimal hard contact. Chicago’s offense has been night-and-day better: sixth in wRC+, OPS, and fourth in ISO versus right-handed pitching over the last three weeks; Pittsburgh ranks 25th or worse in those same metrics. The Pirates bullpen will be missing multiple top relievers after heavy use, while the Cubs pen is fresher. With Skenes slightly more hittable at PNC and Chicago’s clear lineup edge, JABO argued the game should be close to a pick ’em, making the +135 number a must-play.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised taking the full-game Over because both starters have workload concerns. While Paul Skenes has been excellent, Colin Rea has worked five innings or fewer in most outings, pushing Chicago’s 26th-ranked bullpen into action. The Cubs offense has been "putting up runs consistently," and the Pirates bats figure to see plenty of hittable relief arms. Given the combination of suspect bullpen work and two lineups that have recently produced, the tout projects enough late scoring to clear the posted total.

Cash Out Sports Picks said the Pirates are a buy on the money-line because Paul Skenes resets the rotation and has surrendered two or fewer earned runs in three straight starts. Chicago counters with Colin Rea, who has not completed six innings lately, forcing a shaky Cubs bullpen that ranks 26th in ERA (4.76), 25th in WHIP (1.46) and 22nd in opponent AVG (.250) to absorb extra work. Wednesday’s blown lead further highlighted those relief issues. With Skenes expected to work deep and the Cubs relief corps overexposed, the tout expects Pittsburgh to pull ahead late and cash the ticket.

Croucher’s projection spits out 7.6 runs for Thursday’s matinee at PNC Park, giving a full 0.6-run cushion against the listed total of 7.0. While both starters are in good form (Skenes 0 ER over 6.1 IP in Los Angeles; Rea 0.96 season ERA), the model flags three reasons to lean Over: (1) temperatures in the low-70s with a 9-mph breeze out to left increase run expectancy by roughly 6%, (2) the Cubs bullpen has the fourth-worst FIP (4.74) in baseball over the last two weeks, and (3) Pittsburgh’s lineup has quietly posted a .334 OBP at home. The Over is 4-0-1 in Chicago’s last five vs. NL Central opponents, and Croucher believes late-inning volatility plus favorable weather makes 7.0 too low.

Data Skrive posted Oneil Cruz at +330 to hit a homer versus the Cubs, and the numbers say that’s a bet worth circling. Cruz has launched 8 long balls in 28 contests (28.6%), while the +330 price bakes in only a 23% chance. With Wrigley’s wind expected to be neutral and Cruz sporting elite barrel and exit-velo metrics, that 5-6% edge on implied probability makes the lefty a strong plus-money dart for HR prop hunters.

Jay Croucher said his Rotoworld/ NBC Sports model makes the Cubs only a slight underdog in Pittsburgh, so taking Chicago at +1.5 runs (-130 range) carries the highest edge on the board. The model bakes in four recent trends: (1) the Cubs have won four of their last five road games against sub-.500 teams, (2) Paul Skenes is striking out a batter an inning but the Pirates bullpen owns a 4.78 ERA, (3) Colin Rea has allowed just one earned run over his last 9.2 innings and logged 7 K in his most recent start, and (4) Pittsburgh is just 3-6 in one-run games. Croucher likes the insurance of the extra run with a Chicago offense that ranks 6th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching and faces a Pirates club sitting five games under .500.