Despite backing the Padres straight up, Vaughn Dalzell noted his model prefers Miami on the run line at +1.5. The Marlins have covered in four of their last five contests, banking 1.73 units, and Max Meyer has gone at least six innings in three straight starts, limiting opponents to two earned runs or fewer in two of them. Dalzell expects a low-scoring script — the last five Padre home games have stayed under the total — which increases the likelihood Tuesday’s game finishes within a single run. With San Diego’s offense ranking just 21st in wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks, he projected a 54% chance Miami keeps it within one, making the +1.5 spread a profitable lean.

Vaughn Dalzell said his Rotoworld model shows the Padres worth a play at -183 on Tuesday night. The algorithm leans San Diego because Stephen Kolek brings a 2.84 ERA into a pitcher-friendly Petco Park, while Max Meyer has been uneven (4.15 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) and allows a 43% hard-hit rate. Dalzell added that San Diego has won four of its last five against NL East clubs and has righted the ship with three wins in the past four after a six-game skid. Manny Machado’s late homer Monday underscored the momentum. With the bullpen rested after Michael King’s seven-inning outing Sunday and the Marlins traveling cross-country, Dalzell projected the Friars to win this matchup 62% of the time, creating positive expected value on the current moneyline.

Although Dalzell is backing Arizona to win outright, his projection spits out value on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs at roughly -110. The model expects Burnes to dominate but sees limited blow-up risk because the Diamondbacks bullpen has the seventh-worst WHIP (1.42) over the past two weeks, creating a path for a 4-3 or 5-4 final. Pittsburgh’s offense has at least six hits in five straight games and could get a mid-game boost from top prospect Termarr Johnson, who was called up Tuesday. With Chase Field suppressing extra-base power and the total sitting at 9.0, Dalzell believes runs will come at a premium and grabbing the extra run and a half with the Pirates is a smart way to fade the inflated -1.5 favorite price on Arizona.

Vaughn Dalzell said his model makes the Diamondbacks clear value on Tuesday’s moneyline despite the short price sitting around -256. He pointed to the sizeable mound edge: Corbin Burnes owns a 2.73 ERA, is holding hitters to a .196 average, and is coming off a seven-inning, eight-strikeout gem, whereas rookie Mike Burrows sits at 7.20 with more walks (2) than strikeouts (3) in his lone start. Arizona has also taken four of its last five home games against sub-.500 clubs and just blanked Pittsburgh 5-0 on Monday while piling up 10 hits and two homers. Dalzell noted Pittsburgh has failed to cover the run line in four straight road contests and is 19-36 overall. All of that, combined with Chase Field’s run-suppressing roof-closed conditions tonight, led him to label the Diamondbacks moneyline as the safest play on the board.

Jay Croucher recommended playing Zack Wheeler’s strikeout prop to the over (projected 6.5 Ks). Wheeler has fanned at least six hitters in six consecutive outings and is coming off a six-strikeout, six-shutout-inning performance against Pittsburgh. Facing an Athletics lineup stuck in a nine-game skid and now missing everyday third baseman Gio Urshela, Croucher expects Wheeler’s swing-and-miss stuff to play for 7-9 punch-outs while the Phillies look to push their win streak to eight.

Jay Croucher backed the Phillies on both the moneyline (-181) and the -1.5 run line for Friday’s tilt in Sacramento. He pointed to Philadelphia’s seven-game overall winning streak and the fact they have covered the run line in six straight. Zack Wheeler brings a 5-1 record, 2.67 ERA and a six-start streak of 6+ strikeouts, while Oakland counters with Jeffrey Springs (3.91 ERA) and a bullpen that just blew back-to-back late leads during a nine-game losing skid. Croucher added that the Phillies have already won three straight in this ballpark and Oakland will be without Gio Urshela (hamstring). Even though the total has gone under in 14 of Philadelphia’s 24 road games, he expects the superior starter and the red-hot lineup to extend the streak and cover the run line at plus odds.

Croucher recommended betting the game total over 8.0, hinging on the expectation that an unsharp Clayton Kershaw pushes this toward a slugfest. The left-hander’s velo was down 1.6 mph and he generated only three swinging strikes in his first start back from multiple shoulder and elbow procedures. Meanwhile Freddie Freeman is on a torrid 31-for-75 (.413) run in May and faces a right-handed fly-ball pitcher in Canning who owns a 42% hard-hit rate. Even with Juan Soto scuffling, Croucher pointed out that New York ranks top-10 in MLB in walk rate, a problem for a dodgy Kershaw who issued three free passes last outing. Weather models show a 9 mph breeze out to right, adding roughly 4% to home-run probability. Despite the Dodgers being 4-1 to the under in their last five versus NL opponents, the projection model spits out 8.7 runs, giving a full three-quarters of a run worth of value on the over.

Jay Croucher said the best way to attack Friday’s NLCS-rematch is to take the Mets on the +1.5 run line. His reasoning started with the pitching mismatch: Griffin Canning is 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA and just held the Yankees to 2 ER over 5.1 innings, while Clayton Kershaw looked nowhere near vintage form in his season debut (11.25 ERA after surrendering 5 ER in 4 IP to the Angels). Croucher noted that the Dodgers have won 19 of 30 following a win, but the +1.5 cushion neutralizes that trend, especially with New York’s pen rested after a Thursday off-day. The model the NBC Sports Bet staff runs made the Mets a slight favorite on a neutral field, giving the +1.5 a 5% edge over fair price. Citi Field’s neutral run-scoring environment and the Mets’ above-average defensive efficiency also factor into the play.

Jay Croucher said the model’s strongest edge for Friday’s game at PNC Park is on the Under 9.0 runs. He pointed to a perfect storm of recent trends and matchup data: the Braves have cashed the Under in eight of their last ten contests while averaging just 3.4 runs in that span; Pittsburgh’s offense is ice-cold, riding a seven-game losing streak during which they have scored only 2.1 runs per game and collected just four hits in their most recent outing. Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds is mired in a 4-for-28 (.143) funk, further dragging the Pirates’ run production. Croucher added that both starters showed signs of competence their last time out—Bryce Elder limited the Dodgers to two earned over five frames and Bailey Falter surrendered just one earned over seven versus San Diego—suggesting neither club is likely to jump out to a crooked number early. With PNC Park’s pitcher-friendly dimensions and winds projected to blow in, Croucher graded the Under a full run better than the market and labeled it the staff’s preferred wager.

Jay Croucher explained why the NBC Sports projection shows value on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs at home despite the Pirates’ ugly seven-game skid. The Braves have played in tight, low-scoring affairs all month—only two of their last ten games have been decided by more than one run—making it difficult to cover a run-line premium. Atlanta starter Bryce Elder owns a 5.06 ERA and has allowed a 43% hard-hit rate, giving the Pirates a path to scrape across enough offense to stay within striking distance. On the other side, left-hander Bailey Falter also carries a 5.06 ERA but is coming off his best outing of the season (7 IP, 1 ER, 2 H vs. Padres) and now faces a Braves lineup that ranks bottom-10 against southpaws in wRC+. Croucher noted that if the game script follows his model’s median projection of 4.3–4.1 in Atlanta’s favor, grabbing the extra run and a half with the home dog is worth the juice, assigning it a medium-confidence grade.

Jay Croucher recommended taking the over 10.0 runs when the Yankees visit the Athletics. Both starters are vulnerable — Will Warren owns a 5.65 ERA and failed to complete five innings his last time out, while Osvaldo Bido sports a 4.71 ERA and lasted only five frames in Miami. Because neither goes deep, Croucher expects early exposure to average bullpens that will be traveling or coming off consecutive losses (in Oakland’s case). Yankees totals have leaned under overall (16-19-2 O/U), but Croucher believes the move to hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park plus a rested New York lineup ready to bounce back after an off day creates prime conditions for regression. With Jacob Wilson going 4-for-5 on Wednesday and Oakland scoring five or more in four of its last six, Croucher’s projection spits out 11+ combined runs, making the current 10.0 number a playable over.

Jay Croucher advised laying the -1.5 run line with the Yankees in Friday’s opener at Sacramento. He highlighted the pitching mismatch, pointing out that rookie Will Warren’s 8-strikeout outing against Tampa shows trending swing-and-miss stuff even though his season ERA sits at 5.65, while Osvaldo Bido brings a 4.71 ERA and has surrendered 4 earned runs in back-to-back starts. Croucher also trusts New York’s rested offense: Aaron Judge had reached base in 31 straight games before Wednesday and Ben Rice already owns four doubles in six May contests. Oakland is just 20-18 on the run line despite its solid record and has dropped two straight to Seattle. With the NBC model projecting a 2-plus-run victory, Croucher prefers the -1.5 price to the -142 moneyline.

Drew Dinsick also recommended the under 9.0 runs, projecting the game for 7.6 runs after accounting for park factors and both starters’ underlying metrics. He noted Roki Sasaki’s 97-99 mph fastball still owns a 30% called-plus-swinging strike rate despite some command hiccups, while Eduardo Rodriguez’s new sweeper has hitters whiffing at a 41% clip. Neither club is likely to push pitch counts after each starter threw 95+ pitches last time out, shortening exposure to the softer underbelly of both lineups (bottom four hitters for each side combine for a .212 average). Chase Field’s retractable roof is expected to be closed with a 72-degree indoor environment, muting the usual desert ball-carry. Dinsick added that the Dodgers travel spot—third city in four days—historically shaves half a run off their implied team total. With both bullpens ranking top-10 in strand rate and the model showing a 58% probability the game lands 8 or fewer, he labeled under 9 his favorite wager on Friday’s slate.

Drew Dinsick said his NBC Sports Bet model makes Arizona a slight favorite on a neutral field and therefore grabbed the Diamondbacks +1.5 (-130) at home. He highlighted three data points powering the edge: 1) rookie phenom Roki Sasaki owns a 3.86 ERA but just a 19% strike-out rate through four MLB starts, a step down from his NPB dominance, and has yet to work past the sixth inning, putting Los Angeles’ overworked middle relief (4.35 bullpen ERA in May) in play. 2) Eduardo Rodriguez’s surface numbers look rough (5.92 ERA), but his 29% strike-out rate and 15% swinging-strike rate are both career highs, fresh off a 10-K performance in Philadelphia. 3) Arizona’s lineup is heating up—Gabriel Moreno and Corbin Carroll both carry xwOBA above .360 over the last two weeks—while the Dodgers’ order is top-heavy behind red-hot Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. With Chase Field boosting offense and the D-backs owning last-at-bat leverage, Dinsick estimated a 63% chance Arizona keeps the game within a run, making the +1.5 run line a solid value play.

Drew Dinsick leaned to the Over 8.0 runs, citing shaky recent form from both starters and surging power from the Yankee bats. Rodon’s 4.94 ERA over his last five appearances lines up poorly against a Padres roster that sits top-10 in barrel rate, while Nick Pivetta’s 1.78 season ERA is backed by a .235 BABIP and 86% strand rate that Dinsick called 'wildly unsustainable.' He added that Monday’s forecast calls for 9-mph out-to-left winds and 70-degree temperatures — classic Yankee Stadium hitting weather. The NBC model projects 9.2 runs and grades the Over as a 12-percent edge, recommending a wager at anything 8.5 or lower.

Jay Croucher said his NBC Sports Bet model shows value on the Yankees at the current -147 price. He pointed out that New York has won each of Carlos Rodon's last three starts and that Aaron Judge comes in swinging a hot bat after a 5-for-13 weekend versus Tampa. While Rodon’s 4.94 ERA over his past five outings looks shaky, Croucher noted that two of those starts came in Camden Yards and Fenway— parks that inflate runs— whereas Yankee Stadium is playing neutral so far this season. The Padres enter on a five-game winning streak, but Croucher expects some travel-day regression from a club that scored only four total runs in its last two games in pitcher-friendly PNC Park. With Nick Pivetta coming off a 5.1-inning, 3-run effort and regression likely against a lineup that leads the AL in hard-hit rate, the model makes New York -165, creating a playable edge on the listed moneyline.

Croucher’s projection spits out 7.6 runs for Thursday’s matinee at PNC Park, giving a full 0.6-run cushion against the listed total of 7.0. While both starters are in good form (Skenes 0 ER over 6.1 IP in Los Angeles; Rea 0.96 season ERA), the model flags three reasons to lean Over: (1) temperatures in the low-70s with a 9-mph breeze out to left increase run expectancy by roughly 6%, (2) the Cubs bullpen has the fourth-worst FIP (4.74) in baseball over the last two weeks, and (3) Pittsburgh’s lineup has quietly posted a .334 OBP at home. The Over is 4-0-1 in Chicago’s last five vs. NL Central opponents, and Croucher believes late-inning volatility plus favorable weather makes 7.0 too low.

Jay Croucher said his Rotoworld/ NBC Sports model makes the Cubs only a slight underdog in Pittsburgh, so taking Chicago at +1.5 runs (-130 range) carries the highest edge on the board. The model bakes in four recent trends: (1) the Cubs have won four of their last five road games against sub-.500 teams, (2) Paul Skenes is striking out a batter an inning but the Pirates bullpen owns a 4.78 ERA, (3) Colin Rea has allowed just one earned run over his last 9.2 innings and logged 7 K in his most recent start, and (4) Pittsburgh is just 3-6 in one-run games. Croucher likes the insurance of the extra run with a Chicago offense that ranks 6th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching and faces a Pirates club sitting five games under .500.

Jay Croucher recommended playing the game total over 7.0 at Citi Field. His rationale combined Zac Gallen’s 5.57 ERA and recent five-inning ceiling with New York’s inability to keep games low-scoring when Senga exits. Arizona just tagged the Mets’ relief corps for four late runs on Wednesday, while New York has plated at least four in each of Senga’s home starts. Croucher’s projection model spit out 7.6 expected runs, giving bettors a half-run cushion on the posted total.

Jay Croucher backed the Mets on the -152 moneyline, citing Kodai Senga’s ace-level start to 2025. Senga owns a 1.26 ERA and 0.98 WHIP through four outings and New York has won each of his last three Citi Field starts, returning a 1.0-unit profit on the run line in those games. Croucher contrasted that with Zac Gallen’s rough opening month (1-4, 5.57 ERA) and noted Gallen has averaged only five innings per appearance, exposing an Arizona bullpen that was forced to cover three frames on Wednesday. With the Mets’ model projecting a steeper -165 true price, Croucher judged the current -152 number as actionable value.

Croucher also endorsed the game total Over 9. He cited the Dodgers’ offensive surge (OVER 4-0 in their last four, capped by Tuesday’s 15-spot) and Cal Quantrill’s bloated 7.83 ERA as primary drivers. On the other side, Tony Gonsolin makes his first MLB appearance since August 2023 following arm surgery, introducing rust concerns that could lead to early traffic before the bullpen takes over. Day-game weather at hitter-friendly Dodger Stadium (temperatures projected mid-70s with a light breeze out to left) further boosts run expectancy. With both bullpens already heavily used in the series and L.A. posting a 59% OVER rate in home games versus right-handed starters since last season, Croucher’s model projects 10.3 combined runs and flags the Over as the best total angle.

Croucher advised bettors to play the Dodgers -1.5 after the club covered that margin in each of the last four games. The handicap leans on the same mismatch that favors the moneyline: Miami’s slumping offense against a Dodgers lineup averaging 8.3 runs during the win streak. With Quantrill’s 1.79 WHIP and shaky command (zero walks last start but 10 free passes in his previous 15 innings) and a Marlins bullpen that was forced to soak up 5.2 innings Tuesday, Croucher expects Los Angeles to build a multi-run cushion. He added that the Dodgers have cashed the run line at a 67% clip (14-7) when favored by -180 or more since Opening Day 2024, making the -1.5 an attractive alternative to the steep moneyline.

Jay Croucher recommended laying the juice with the Dodgers at ‑295, noting multiple edges that still make the favorite playable despite the hefty price. Los Angeles is riding a four-game winning streak and has already taken the first two games of this set, including Tuesday’s 15-2 demolition in which Shohei Ohtani homered on the first pitch he saw and Teoscar Hernandez went 4-for-5 with four RBI. Miami counters with Cal Quantrill, who owns a 7.83 ERA and just allowed 4 ER over 5.2 IP in Seattle, while the Dodgers get a jolt from Tony Gonsolin’s return. Croucher pointed out that the Marlins have dropped four straight and the model gives L.A. a clear win probability edge even at the inflated number.

Drew Dinsick also recommended grabbing Under 9.0 runs despite Great American Ball Park’s hitter-friendly reputation. He pointed to several converging factors: totals have cashed Under in four of the Cardinals’ last five thanks to a slumping offense that sits 26th in wRC+ over the past two weeks; early start times in Cincinnati historically mute run production by roughly 0.4 runs because of heavier, more humid morning air; and both clubs will be managing arms carefully ahead of Game 2, likely limiting high-leverage bats to fewer total plate appearances. Abbott has allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of four non-Coors starts, and Matz, even in short bursts, owns a 1.80 ERA with a 26 % strikeout rate. Add in the fact that Reds games have stayed Under in six of Abbott’s last nine home outings, and Dinsick’s simulations show only 7.6 median runs, giving nearly a full-run cushion versus the posted total.

Drew Dinsick said the best way to attack Wednesday’s opener of the double-header is to ride the Cincinnati Reds at the current ‑125 moneyline price. His model makes the Reds a ‑145 favorite after accounting for three key edges: (1) recent form – Cincinnati is 7-3 over its last ten while St. Louis has stumbled to 3-7, (2) home dominance – the Reds have won 4 of their last 5 at Great American Ball Park against NL opponents and have covered the run line in three straight there, and (3) a red-hot top of the order – Gavin Lux is on a 12-game hitting streak, slashing .512 (22-for-43) and lengthening the lineup behind Elly De La Cruz. While Andrew Abbott’s 3.60 ERA looks middling, Dinsick noted that his lone blow-up came at Coors Field; in every other start he has kept the ball on the ground at a 52 % clip. Conversely, Steven Matz has worked only 20 total innings all year and lasted just two outs in his last appearance, forcing Oliver Marmol to lean on a shaky Cardinals bullpen that owns the 6th-worst FIP (4.72) over the past two weeks. With Cincinnati’s bats cooking and the Cards’ pen overexposed, Dinsick trusts the Reds to take Game 1 straight up.

NBC Sports’ projection system flagged the over 9.0 runs as a playable edge. The model blends weather forecasts calling for mild temps and a light breeze to left, Camden Yards’ 1.28 home-run park factor, and the current form of both offenses: New York has already tied an MLB record with 15 homers through its first three games of a series this month, while Baltimore tagged Yankees pitching for four early runs last night behind Ryan O’Hearn’s three-run blast. Although Carlos Rodon has been lights-out across his last two outings, the Orioles’ bullpen owns the league’s worst ERA, and Kyle Gibson is making his season debut, giving the model confidence that late scoring can push the game past the posted 9-run total.

While the model likes New York straight up, it simultaneously shows value grabbing Baltimore at +1.5 runs. The Orioles have covered the runline in seven of their last nine matchups with New York, including last night’s 4-3 victory. Camden Yards’ generous dimensions help keep them within striking distance, and they enter Tuesday with the league’s fifth-best bullpen strikeout rate, a key metric the model weighs heavily for runline wagers. With Kyle Gibson historically limiting hard contact (career 48% GB rate) and the Yankees frequently leaning on a late-inning committee behind Rodon, the projection spits out a 60% probability that Baltimore loses by one or wins outright—enough to clear the +1.5 at standard juice.

The NBC Sports Bet Model recommended laying the -154 moneyline on New York. The algorithm factors in the Yankees’ 17-12 record, Carlos Rodon’s dominant recent form (13 straight scoreless innings, 4 straight games with 8+ strikeouts, 3.50 ERA overall) and Baltimore’s 11-17 mark with Kyle Gibson making his first appearance of 2025. Last night’s narrow 4-3 loss still extended Aaron Judge’s hitting streak to nine games, and the model projects the Bronx lineup to rebound in a favorable lefty-versus-righty matchup at hitter-friendly Camden Yards. With weather and park factors also tilting toward New York, the model shows the Yankees winning this matchup enough to justify the current vig.

NBC Sports Bet Staff advised playing Over 9.0 runs. Their simulation outputs 9.7 combined runs thanks to two factors: the Yankees’ lineup is averaging 5.4 runs per game during Judge’s current nine-game hit streak, and Baltimore’s bullpen owns a 5.12 ERA over the last two weeks, making late scoring likely even if Carlos Rodon deals early. Weather projections call for 12 mph out-to-center winds in 70-degree temps at hitter-friendly Camden Yards. With Kyle Gibson shaking off rust in his season debut and New York’s middle relief scuffling (4.78 ERA), the model expects crooked numbers in the middle innings to push the game Over.

While the model prefers the Yankees outright, NBC Sports Bet Staff simultaneously leaned to Baltimore +1.5 on the run line. The projection shows value because six of New York’s last eight victories have come by a single run and Oriole Park at Camden Yards suppresses homers since the left-field wall was moved back. Baltimore jumped out 4-0 and held on 4-3 last night, illustrating their knack for keeping games tight. Grabbing the extra run at + odds fits the model’s game script that expects a low-margin Yankees win.

NBC Sports Bet Staff recommended taking the Yankees at -154 on the moneyline. Their model favors New York behind Carlos Rodon’s current heater – 13 straight scoreless innings and at least eight strikeouts in four consecutive outings – against an Orioles club that sits 11-17 and hands the ball to Kyle Gibson making his first appearance of 2025. The write-up noted Aaron Judge’s nine-game hitting streak and New York’s 17-12 record as additional edges. With Rodon in peak form and Baltimore’s offense ranking bottom-10 in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching, the staff’s projections make the juice playable.

Jay Croucher’s third edge from the NBC Sports Bet model is on the game total, recommending over 9.0 runs. He cited divisional trend data that shows the OVER is 6-2-1 in Nationals NL East matchups this season, and pointed to the shaky middle-relief units both clubs showed in Sunday’s 8-7 slugfest. While Griffin Canning (3.12 ERA) vs Trevor Williams (5.11 ERA) appears lopsided, Croucher reminded bettors that Canning has allowed seven hits in back-to-back outings and rarely works past the sixth inning, exposing a Mets bullpen that just surrendered seven late runs. On the Nationals side, Williams has given up a .276 opponents’ average and owns just an 18% strikeout rate, leaving plenty of ball-in-play risk against a Mets lineup ranked top-10 in OPS. The model projects 9.6 runs—enough to clear the posted number with room to spare.

Jay Croucher recommended backing the Mets on the moneyline at -158 after the NBC Sports Bet model showed a small but playable edge. Croucher pointed to several matchup factors that favor New York: Griffin Canning enters with a 3–1 record and 3.12 ERA, while Washington counters with Trevor Williams’ 5.11 ERA. New York is 19-9 overall and has won 6 of its last 7 road games that followed a defeat, suggesting yesterday’s blown seven-run lead is unlikely to spark a skid. The Nationals have still taken two of three in the series, but Croucher noted their 13-15 record and the Mets’ 15-13 mark on the run line as additional indicators of New York’s overall edge. Implied win probability at -158 (≈61%) was below the model’s 64% projection, giving bettors roughly a 3-point cushion.

Although the model makes the Mets a moneyline play, Jay Croucher explained why it simultaneously leans toward the Nationals +1.5 runs at home. Washington has covered the run line in two of the first three games of the series and just erased a seven-run deficit, showcasing a bullpen that can keep games tight late. New York is only 15-13 on the run line despite its strong overall record, indicating a tendency to win close rather than blow teams out. Trevor Williams’ last start (5 IP, 1 ER vs Baltimore) was solid enough to give Croucher confidence he can limit early damage, while Nationals games have gone 6-1-1 to the UNDER over their last eight—another sign they frequently stay inside low-scoring margins. With the +1.5 priced at modest juice, the model sees enough cushion to justify a split ticket: Mets to win, but Nats to keep it within a run.

Jay Croucher explained why his projection simultaneously shows value on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs at -115. Paul Skenes has worked at least six innings in all four MLB starts and has held opponents to three earned runs or fewer in three of them while fanning 23 batters in 26 innings. With the game total sitting at 7.0 and the Under 4-1 in the Pirates’ last five against National League foes, Croucher expects runs to be at a premium. Los Angeles dropped two straight one-run games to the Cubs this week, reinforcing the likelihood of another close finish. His model spits out a 59% probability that Pittsburgh keeps the margin to one run or wins outright, giving bettors roughly a 6-point edge over the implied probability on the +1.5 run line.

Although both starters own sub-3.00 ERAs, Jay Croucher’s projection makes Over 7.0 the highest-EV total play. He noted that the Dodgers’ offense is heating up—Teoscar Hernandez is slashing .385 with a homer and 5 RBI over his last three games—and that Oneil Cruz just went 6-for-16 (.375) in Anaheim as Pittsburgh’s lineup finally shows signs of life. Croucher also pointed out that Skenes averaged 97.8 mph on his heater in his last start but has surrendered seven barrels in 26 innings, signaling possible HR regression. Yamamoto will be on regular four-day rest after a 101-pitch outing, so L.A. could need 9-12 outs from a bullpen that was used in back-to-back nail-biters at Wrigley. Factoring park-adjusted run environments and neutral weather, his model projects 7.6 runs—enough cushion to clear the listed total.

Jay Croucher said the Dodgers’ moneyline is still playable at -215 because every market factor favors Los Angeles. Rookie import Yoshinobu Yamamoto owns a microscopic 0.93 ERA and just blanked Texas for 7 innings with 10 strikeouts and zero walks. The club has won five straight home games against Pittsburgh and sits 4-1 on the run line this season when they have a rest advantage at Dodger Stadium. Even though Paul Skenes has flashed a 2.87 ERA, the Pittsburgh offense has scored three runs or fewer in three of his four starts and now flies cross-country after a 4-3 loss to the Angels. Croucher pointed to Teoscar Hernandez’s hot bat (5-for-13, HR, 5 RBI in Chicago) and the deeper L.A. bullpen as additional edges that keep the true price closer to -250 in his model, making the current moneyline worth a wager.

Vaughn Dalzell said Mike Trout is a strong bet to go Over 0.5 total bases on Thursday night and even sprinkled in a homer play at +360. Dalzell argued that Trout’s current 0-for-8 in the series and 1-for-23 skid is masking an ideal matchup. Carmen Mlodzinski has been shelled for 26 hits and 14 earned runs in just 17.0 innings across four starts (7.41 ERA, 1.73 WHIP), issuing 8 walks to 14 Ks. All eight of Trout’s homers and 12 of his 14 total hits this season have come off right-handed pitching, exactly what he’ll see from Mlodzinski. Dalzell expects at least one solid batted ball to fall, projecting Trout to snap the slump and reach safely tonight against a vulnerable Pirates starter.

Despite the Under cashing in each of Houston’s last three games, Croucher recommended taking Over 8.0 runs. His projection spits out 8.4 expected runs thanks to a shaky Astros starter (Ronel Blanco, 6.48 ERA, five hits and three walks in his last outing) and a Blue Jays lineup that is beginning to click—Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 6‑for‑17 (.353) over his last five games and the club still ranks top‑10 in hard‑hit rate. Croucher believes Bassitt’s ultra‑low ERA is unsustainable (league‑average FIP components) and Minute Maid Park’s short porch in left offers extra homer upside against two fly‑ball prone staffs. With both bullpens having thrown meaningful innings the previous night and warm indoor hitting conditions, he sees enough combined paths for these offenses to push the total past the posted eight.

Croucher said the model shows slight value grabbing Toronto at +1.5 runs, citing Chris Bassitt’s form (2‑0, 0.77 ERA; 10 strikeouts over five shutout innings vs. Atlanta on 4/16) and the club’s recent success in close road games. The Blue Jays have covered the run line in four of their last five away contests, netting backers 1.12 units. He expects Bassitt to work deep enough to neutralize Houston’s surging bats and take pressure off a bullpen that allowed zero runs in its last two appearances before Monday’s loss. On the Houston side, Ronel Blanco has issued three walks in two of his last three starts and managed only one strikeout in St. Louis, giving Toronto a path to keep things tight even if the Astros ultimately prevail.

Jay Croucher said his NBC Sports Bet model makes Houston a -130 favorite yet the market is dealing -114, so he is backing the Astros on the moneyline. He acknowledged Chris Bassitt’s sparkling 0.77 ERA, but noted the underlying matchup tilts toward Houston: the Astros’ offense finally showed signs of life in Monday’s opener when the bottom three hitters combined to go 5‑for‑10 with three RBIs in a 7‑0 win that leveled their record at 11‑11. Toronto’s bullpen was forced to cover four innings in that shutout, potentially leaving them thin behind Bassitt. Meanwhile Ronel Blanco’s 6.48 ERA makes bettors nervous, but Croucher pointed out Houston is 7‑3 in its last ten home games versus right‑handed starters and Minute Maid Park’s friendly dimensions boost their run expectancy. With the Blue Jays just 4‑5 on the road despite recent ATS success, Croucher trusts the Astros’ improving lineup and home‑field advantage to overcome Bassitt’s early‑season form.

Drew Dinsick said the Over 9.0 is the best way to attack Tuesday’s Beltway battle. He pointed to Baltimore’s league‑leading 14‑5‑2 record to the Over, noting the Orioles have hit the Over in seven of their last eight contests (7‑0‑1) thanks to a deep lineup that sits top‑5 in hard‑hit rate and barrels per plate appearance. Dean Kremer’s 6.41 ERA, 2.3 HR/9 and career‑worst 43% fly‑ball rate make him a blow‑up candidate in a hitter‑friendly Nationals Park. On the other side, rookie left‑hander Mitchell Parker has sparkled (1.85 ERA), but Dinsick highlighted a modest 19.3% strikeout rate and .216 BABIP that suggest looming regression against an Orioles lineup that punishes southpaws (124 wRC+ vs LHP). Washington can chip in as well: the Nats have cashed the Over in four straight home games and face an Orioles bullpen that owns the sixth‑worst xFIP (4.55). With mild spring temperatures in DC and a 7‑mph breeze blowing out to right‑center, Dinsick projected a combined 10.4 runs and made the Over playable to 9.5.

Drew Dinsick recommended taking Washington on the run line at +1.5, citing several trend and matchup edges. The Nationals have covered the run line in six of their last seven games at Nationals Park and are 10‑12 ATS overall despite a sub‑.500 record, a profile Dinsick likes against an Orioles club that is just 4‑8 straight up in its last 12. Rookie Mitchell Parker’s 1.85 ERA, supported by a 55% ground‑ball rate and sub‑1.00 WHIP, gives Washington a legitimate chance to keep things tight, especially with Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson slumping at .228 in April and star catcher Adley Rutschman nursing a bruised thumb (expected to start but potentially limited at the plate). Baltimore’s suspect bullpen (21st in K‑BB%) and Kremer’s homer issues (13 allowed in his last seven starts dating back to 2024) add late‑game volatility that favors the extra run. Dinsick would play the Nats RL down to –120 and noted an implied win probability edge of 4% versus his model.

Drew Dinsick also played the over 8.0 runs despite the Under cashing in each of the Dodgers’ last three games. He expects regression toward offense because both clubs rank top‑7 in MLB in hard‑hit rate and will benefit from a full‑strength lineup (Shohei Ohtani back after paternity leave, Cody Bellinger recovered from illness). His projections hand the matchup a median of 8.7 runs with each bullpen showing signs of fatigue—L.A. relievers threw 12 innings over the weekend and the Cubs’ pen owns a collective 5.06 ERA for the season. That half‑run cushion over the posted total created enough edge to side with the over.

While still projecting the Dodgers to win outright, Drew Dinsick’s simulations show a high likelihood of a one‑run game, prompting a lean to Chicago +1.5 on the run line. He highlighted Shota Imanaga’s 2.22 ERA and 29% strikeout rate that have kept the Cubs in every one of his starts, plus the familiarity factor after already facing L.A. twice this year. The Cubs have covered the +1.5 spread in three of the five meetings, and Wrigley Field’s run‑suppressing conditions in early spring increase the probability of a tight, low‑scoring contest. His model gives the Cubs a 62% chance to stay within a run, well above the implied 55%.

Drew Dinsick recommended playing Los Angeles at -120, arguing the number is too cheap given current form and matchup edges. He pointed out that Dustin May owns a 1.06 ERA with a 0.78 WHIP through three starts and is coming off 6 IP, 7‑K, 0‑BB dominance of Colorado. The Dodgers have won five of their last six and already hold a 3‑2 season series lead on Chicago after sweeping the two games in Tokyo. Dinsick noted Shota Imanaga has issued seven walks over his past two outings (3 BB in his most recent start at San Diego) and the Cubs bullpen posted a 1.60 WHIP over the past week, numbers that tilt the late‑inning edge toward Los Angeles. His model makes L.A. -137, creating enough value to fire on the moneyline.

Drew Dinsick said the model makes Boston a stronger favorite than the current -280 moneyline implies and tagged the Red Sox as the best way to attack Monday’s Patriots’ Day matinee. Key reasons: Boston has taken four of its last five at Fenway against sub‑.500 opponents, while Chicago just snapped an 0‑8 road start that was the worst in franchise history. Walker Buehler has been shaky (5.23 ERA) but still holds opponents to a .214 batting average and faces a White Sox lineup with only one regular, Andrew Vaughn, slugging above .350. On the other side, rookie Jonathan Cannon owns a 4.42 ERA and has yet to pitch past the fifth inning, creating a heavy bullpen tax for a unit that ranks 27th in ERA. Fenway’s early‑start atmosphere typically favors the home bats, and Boston’s team OPS is 93 points higher at home so far. Dinsick concluded that the combination of recent form, starting‑pitcher edge once penalties for short outings are applied, and Chicago’s exhausted pen justifies paying the juice on Boston’s moneyline even at -280.

Jay Croucher leaned toward Chicago +1.5 runs at -110 despite backing Boston on the moneyline, arguing the matchup sets up for a one‑run game far more often than the market suggests. Cannon’s last start was his best yet (4.1 scoreless vs Oakland), and the right‑hander’s 54% ground‑ball rate plays well at Fenway, muting big innings. Walker Buehler is still on a 90‑pitch cap after 2024 Tommy John rehab and has completed six frames only once, forcing Alex Cora to trust a middle‑relief group with a collective 4.71 ERA. Boston’s offense is without Trevor Story and ranks just 19th in wRC+ against righties, while Chicago’s lineup finally showed signs of life yesterday with eight runs and a homer from Vaughn. Croucher added that nine of Boston’s 12 wins have come by exactly one run, so grabbing the extra cushion on the Sox of the South is a profitable angle if Boston wins a tight contest or Cannon keeps them in front.

Despite backing New York on the moneyline, Jay Croucher noted the model still shows value grabbing Cleveland at +1.5 runs because the projected score differential is almost exactly one run. Cleveland’s offense just swept Pittsburgh and walked off the Pirates on a Kyle Manzardo sacrifice fly, giving the Guardians enough offensive floor to stay inside the spread even if they lose. Schmidt has yet to pitch into the 6th in either of his last two outings, giving Cleveland a chance to chip away against the middle of the Yankee bullpen. That combination produced a lean to Guardians +1.5 at -150 or better.