NBC Sports

NBC Sports Bet Staff leaned toward the Diamondbacks covering the run line at +1.5 against the Yankees. Highlighting recent performance, although the Diamondbacks struggled offensively picking up just three hits in their last win, their pitching has been sharp, including Zach Gallen's 13-strikeout masterpiece. Merrill Kelly, Thursday's starter, allowed just one earned run over 5.1 innings in his last outing, positioning Arizona to keep the game tight.

NBC Sports Bet Staff recommended backing the Yankees moneyline against the Diamondbacks, making use of their betting model predictions. Despite the Yankees struggling offensively with 30 strikeouts over the last two games, the tout looks to capitalize on a bounce-back performance and regression to their offensive mean at home behind Carlos Carrasco, whose opening start was rough but limited sample size. The Diamondbacks managed just three hits on Wednesday and could face similar offensive troubles against Carrasco.

NBC Sports Bet Staff supports playing the Orioles on the spread at +1.5 given their recent streaky run-line behavior. Through early season games this year, the Orioles have consistently alternated wins and losses. Notably, every victory of theirs has seen them cover the run line, while every loss they've failed to do so. Coming off a shutout loss yesterday, this pattern suggests an improved performance today and strong likelihood of a bounce-back, making the +1.5 spread an attractive bet.

NBC Sports Bet Staff recommends betting on the Baltimore Orioles on the moneyline based on several key factors. Orioles pitcher Charlie Morton has struggled, giving up 4 earned runs in 3.1 innings in his last outing. However, Red Sox starting pitcher Tanner Houck similarly struggled, allowing 4 earned runs and posting a 6.35 ERA in his debut this season. Additionally, the Orioles have demonstrated a clear early-season trend; they alternate wins and losses and, critically, have covered the spread in each win but failed to cover in each loss. Given that yesterday resulted in an Orioles loss (a 3-0 shutout by the Red Sox), NBC Sports Bet Staff sees Baltimore bouncing back today at home. Despite Morton's shaky start, the recommendation implies the betting model projects a positive regression or strong team performance to overcome the pitching issues today.

NBC Sports Bet Staff sees value on the Yankees comfortably covering the -1.5 spread line at Yankee Stadium on Saturday against the Brewers. The Yankees are fresh off an impressive Opening Day win, featuring a solid pitching performance from Carlos Rodon (1 earned run over 5.1 innings) and power hitting with home runs from Austin Wells and Anthony Volpe. Meanwhile, the Brewers struggled offensively, striking out 13 times and scoring only once. New York starter Max Fried, who compiled an 11-10 record with a 3.25 ERA last season, faces Nestor Cortes (9-10, 3.77 ERA), creating a perceived mismatch benefiting the Yankees' lineup. The staff's model indicates higher confidence in the Yankees keeping sustained offensive pressure on Milwaukee, widening the margin beyond 1.5 runs.

NBC Sports Bet Staff recommends betting the New York Yankees moneyline (-155) on Saturday afternoon's matchup against the Brewers. Their betting model, which incorporates player statistics, historical performance, player matchups, ballpark factors, and weather forecasts, sees strong value on New York winning outright. This confidence is supported by the Yankees' Game 1 victory this past Thursday, in which they secured a win behind solid pitching by Carlos Rodon (5.1 innings, 1 run allowed, 10 strikeouts as a team) and home runs from Austin Wells and Anthony Volpe. The Brewers, who struggled with 13 strikeouts in Game 1, face former-Yankee Nestor Cortes (3.77 ERA last year), while the Yankees hand the ball to Max Fried, who recorded a solid 3.25 ERA in 2024.

NBC Sports Bet Staff are bearish on the Milwaukee Brewers in their matchup against the Yankees on Saturday. They highlight the Brewers' offensive difficulties on Opening Day, when they managed just 7 hits and struck out 13 times against New York pitching. They face another tough starter in Max Fried, who brings a solid 3.25 ERA from 2024 into his Yankees debut. The NBC betting model supports playing the Yankees on the moneyline and spread, further indicating low expectations for Milwaukee's chances to bounce back offensively in Yankee Stadium against superior pitching.

NBC Sports Bet Staff strongly recommend betting on the New York Yankees moneyline and -1.5 run line on Saturday against the Brewers. Their model identifies value with the Yankees behind new starter Max Fried, who posted an 11-10 record with a 3.25 ERA over 174.1 innings in 2024. Fried faces Milwaukee starter Nestor Cortes, who was more pedestrian last season at 9-10 with a 3.77 ERA. Additionally, the article notes Milwaukee struggled offensively in the opener with just 7 hits and 13 strikeouts, suggesting their lineup could again struggle. The Yankees also won the opener 2-1 behind Carlos Rodon's strong start, indicating their staff is already performing well to begin the season. They also advised the over on the total of 8 runs, suggesting additional confidence in New York's ability to score on Milwaukee pitching.

Vaughn Dalzell backed Bobby Witt Jr. strongly for AL MVP at +450 odds, based on Witt finishing runner-up last season with stellar numbers including 32 homers, a .332 average, 109 RBIs, 31 stolen bases, and a 9.4 WAR, second only to Aaron Judge. Dalzell emphasized Witt's plate discipline, noting consistent improvement in strikeout rate from 21% to 15% over three seasons and continuous growth in multiple offensive categories. With Juan Soto leaving the Yankees, Dalzell believes Aaron Judge's numbers might dip, enhancing Witt's chance to win MVP. He projects Witt as a potential leader in hits and among the top five for RBIs, stolen bases, and runs scored. A 30+ home run, 50+ stolen base season, along with a batting average above .330, could push Witt definitively into MVP territory.

Vaughn Dalzell advised backing Garrett Crochet at +450 odds for AL Cy Young, highlighting his strong performance in 2024. Crochet posted 209 strikeouts against only 33 walks in 146 innings, resulting in a solid 3.58 ERA. His 4.9 WAR last year notably surpassed top pitchers like Logan Webb and Aaron Nola. Dalzell emphasized Crochet's remarkable 6.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio and argued that leaving the White Sox for Boston will allow Crochet increased innings and better run support, critical factors for his Cy Young candidacy. Dalzell also recommended a smaller wager on Crochet to lead MLB in wins at +2200 odds, projecting Boston's stronger offense will turn short outings from 2024 into deeper starts and substantially improved records.

Vaughn Dalzell identified Reds star Elly De La Cruz as a top breakout MVP candidate at +2000 odds. Dalzell focused on De La Cruz leading MLB in stolen bases with 67 last season, combined with impressive metrics of 25 homers, 76 RBIs, and 105 runs. He praised De La Cruz's elite athleticism, speed, and raw upside, and noted the player's own stated goal to improve his problematic 31% strikeout rate. If De La Cruz moderately improves his plate discipline, Dalzell argues his elite power-speed combination makes him a prime MVP candidate. Dalzell also recommended him to lead the league in stolen bases despite lower odds than last year.

Vaughn Dalzell is bullish on Paul Skenes as NL Cy Young winner at +300 after a phenomenal rookie season. Skenes produced an outstanding 1.96 ERA, 170 strikeouts to only 32 walks, and a 5.9 WAR over 23 starts. Dalzell underscored the Pirates' improved bullpen and weak NL Central as major reasons for increased opportunities to convert strong performances into wins, crucial for Cy Young candidacy. He cited Skenes' dominance against divisional opponents, especially a 0.00 ERA against Milwaukee in 21 innings and similarly extraordinary numbers against Cincinnati and St. Louis, proving Skenes' tailored dominance. Dalzell also advised a smaller play at +1400 odds on Skenes to lead MLB in wins this season.

Vaughn Dalzell believes the Dodgers will surpass MLB's all-time record by winning 117 or more games in 2025, recommending a wager at +650 odds. He justified this prediction by highlighting significant roster improvements since last season, notably Shohei Ohtani joining as both pitcher and hitter, addition of rookie Roki Sasaki, free agent Blake Snell, along with a healthy rotation featuring Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin, and rebounding performances from key stars Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Dalzell detailed that last season's underperformance came from multiple highly unusual circumstances like gambling-related distractions and injuries, which are unlikely to repeat. With reinforced pitching depth and a fully healthy and focused core, Dalzell sees Dodgers poised for record-breaking performance.

Vaughn Dalzell identified Juan Soto as a prime value bet at +2800 odds to lead MLB in home runs. He cited Soto posting career-high power metrics, including a barrel rate peaking at 19.7% and a career-high 41 home runs last season. Dalzell stressed that Soto's high-profile move from the Yankees to the Mets, coupled with him entering his prime, sets the stage perfectly for another power breakthrough. Dalzell believes the motivational factor of switching New York teams and Soto's continuously improving metrics provide exceptional betting value here versus MVP odds.