For leg three, Guy Boston played Andrew Benintendi over 0.5 hits at ‑200. Benintendi has a hit in seven of ten games this season (70 %) and is averaging 0.9 hits over that span. He went 3‑for‑3 hitting this mark at Fenway last year, posting 1.67 hits per game against his former club, and Boston believes the return to his old stomping grounds adds motivation. In 2025 Benintendi owns a .310 average, .318 BABIP, and 152.8 WRC+ versus right‑handed pitching, exactly the handedness he’ll see from rookie righty ‘Dobbins,’ whose limited MLB data provides no sign of dominance. With favorable splits and narrative juice, Boston expects Benny Biceps to notch at least one base hit.

Brad Thomas leaned toward Chicago +1.5 runs, citing Martin Perez’s early‑season form (1.59 ERA through two starts) and his ability to neutralize left‑handed power at Fenway. Perez worked 4.2 innings of two‑run ball against these same Red Sox six days ago and owns a 54% ground‑ball rate that plays well in Boston’s small yard. Thomas added that Boston ranks just 22nd in wRC+ against southpaws and that Chicago’s bullpen has quietly posted a 3.45 ERA over the last week. With totals sitting at just nine runs and both offenses scuffling, he expects a one‑run game to cash the run‑line cushion.

Brad Thomas leaned toward Chicago +1.5 runs, citing Martin Perez’s early‑season form (1.59 ERA through two starts) and his ability to neutralize left‑handed power at Fenway. Perez worked 4.2 innings of two‑run ball against these same Red Sox six days ago and owns a 54% ground‑ball rate that plays well in Boston’s small yard. Thomas added that Boston ranks just 22nd in wRC+ against southpaws and that Chicago’s bullpen has quietly posted a 3.45 ERA over the last week. With totals sitting at just nine runs and both offenses scuffling, he expects a one‑run game to cash the run‑line cushion.

Jay Croucher said the model shows clear value on the Red Sox moneyline at Fenway. His reasoning: Chicago has dropped four straight and produced only four total runs during that span, while Boston enters at .500 after taking two of three from Tampa and enjoyed a full rest day Thursday. Croucher highlighted Richard Fitts’ most recent start in Chicago (5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 5 K, 1 BB) and noted that Fenway’s park factor favors Boston’s left‑heavy lineup against the soft‑tossing Martin Perez. With the White Sox failing to cover the run line in four consecutive games, Croucher trusts the Red Sox bats to scrape out enough support for Fitts and the Boston bullpen that owns a 3.21 ERA at home this year.

Reichel targeted Boston –1.5 at +110, noting Chicago’s offense has scored fewer than four runs in 10 of its last 11 and remains winless on the road (0‑6). While rookie Jonathan Perez sports a sparkling 1.59 ERA, the White Sox are still just 4‑13 overall, and Reichel doubts their silent bats can give him support. Boston, meanwhile, is rested after a day off and “should be motivated” after dropping last week’s series on the South Side. Early FanDuel numbers showed the Red Sox –178 on the moneyline with a nine‑run total, so Reichel prefers the plus‑money run line or even a White Sox first‑five team total Under if bettors want to isolate Perez. Bottom line: the White Sox “can’t hit,” and Boston’s offense eventually cashes the minus‑1.5 revenge ticket.

Cash Out Sports Picks also leaned to the full‑game UNDER in the same White Sox–Red Sox opener. Chicago’s anemic offense and decent pitching has produced unders in eight of its last ten overall and four of six on the road. The trend persists on no‑rest situations, where eight of the last eleven have stayed below the number. Boston mirrors that profile, staying under in seven of its last ten and cashing unders in eight of 13 games when listed as the favorite. With Chicago scoring only four runs across its previous three contests and Boston’s bullpen fresh after a day off, the analyst projects another quiet scoreboard and advises playing the under the posted total.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended taking the Red Sox money line against the visiting White Sox, calling it “automatic” until Chicago shows signs of life. The White Sox are 0‑6 on the road, have scored only four runs in their last three games, and have won just two of their past 13 overall after a 121‑loss 2024 season. Boston, meanwhile, is 4‑3 at Fenway, enters with back‑to‑back wins and a rested bullpen after Thursday’s day off, and has covered the run line in three of its last four victories. With Fenway’s home‑field edge, a slightly favorable (if uninspiring) pitching matchup, and Chicago’s inability to hit or protect leads, the tout believes Boston is the far more dependable side at current odds.

Although the model prefers Boston straight up, Jay Croucher noted that Chicago at +1.5 runs still grades out as a small edge because of Martin Perez’s ability to keep games tight. The veteran lefty owns a 1.59 ERA through two starts and limited Boston to 2 earned over 4.2 innings last Saturday despite four free passes. Boston’s lineup has been merely league‑average against southpaws (101 wRC+) and Fenway’s spacious left‑center gap suppresses power from right‑handed bats, helping Perez’s pitch‑to‑contact style. With a projected 4.6‑4.3 final score, Croucher took the White Sox on the run line at +1.5 laying roughly ‑110, expecting Perez to grind five innings and hand it to a bullpen that kept Boston scoreless over the final four frames in last week’s meeting.

Jay Croucher said his NBC Sports model shows value on the Red Sox moneyline Friday at Fenway. Boston is rested after an off‑day and has won four of its last six, including a series win over Tampa. Rookie right‑hander Richard Fitts held this very White Sox lineup scoreless over 5 innings in Chicago six days ago and carries a solid 3.18 ERA. Chicago, meanwhile, has dropped four straight, scoring just four combined runs during that span and getting shut out 8‑0 by Oakland yesterday. The Sox have failed to cover the run line in those four losses and their offense owns a .593 OPS versus right‑handed pitching, second‑worst in baseball. With the model making Boston a ‑175 favorite against a market number hovering around ‑150, Croucher is betting the Red Sox moneyline.

Using THE BAT X model, Derek Carty projects only a 32% strikeout rate for Hunter Dobbins and recommends UNDER 4.5 Ks at -115. A 12.7‑mph breeze out to left boosts run expectancy, and the rookie has generated just a 20% whiff rate in Triple‑A. The projection assigns a 68% success probability, translating to a $31.37 expected value per $100 stake.

Zola anticipates Boston recalling Hunter Dobbins for Friday and recommends deploying him in AL‑only and 15‑team mixed formats. Dobbins struck out five over five scoreless innings in an earlier spot start and now faces a White Sox lineup producing the second‑fewest runs in baseball while striking out 24% of the time. Even with Dobbins scuffling at Triple‑A Worcester (6.11 ERA), Zola believes the matchup and Fenway’s cool April weather make him a sneaky streaming play with modest strikeout upside.

Data Skrive assigned the Red Sox only a 55% win probability, yet bookmakers are pricing Boston at –205 (implied 67.2%). That gap suggests the +170 White Sox moneyline is undervalued. The article notes Boston is just 2‑5 the last seven times it closed as a favorite and 3‑7 against the spread in its last ten games, while Chicago has covered 5 of its last 10 despite the ugly overall record. If the model’s 55/45 projection is accurate, backing the Pale Hose at +170 generates a healthy expected return even with their 4‑14 start.

Data Skrive’s projection spit out a 6‑5 final score at Fenway, so their model shows 11 combined runs and leans to the Over 9 at the current –118 juice. Despite each club averaging fewer than 2.6 runs over the past ten games, the write‑up highlights several factors that could boost offense: Boston’s middle of the order is heating up (Wilyer Abreu .306 with 3 HR; Kristian Campbell .302 with 3 HR) and Chicago’s Andrew Benintendi leads the Sox with two homers while carrying a team‑best .281 average. Both bullpens have been mediocre this month (Boston 4.00 ERA, Chicago 4.49), and the simulation produced double‑digit runs often enough that the Over is considered plus‑EV.