Kenny G recommended the under 9.5 in Sunday’s Mets–Pirates matchup. He trusts Frankie Montas, who fired five scoreless frames with seven punch-outs in his season debut against Atlanta, to keep Pittsburgh in check. Opposing rookie Mike Burrows has flashed upside and is backed by a Pirates bullpen that has quietly improved to a 3.80 ERA, though several key arms may be unavailable after heavy usage Saturday. New York’s lineup has scored just three total runs in the first two games of the set and is 24-16-1 to the under on the road. Pittsburgh, despite consecutive nine-run outbursts, still ranks near the bottom of the league and plays in pitcher-friendly PNC Park. With both clubs trending to the under and a lofty 9.5 posted, Kenny expects runs to be at a premium.

Bill Harrelson recommended taking Mark Vientos for less than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Vientos has stayed under in nine of his last ten, 15 of his last 17, and four straight versus Pittsburgh. On the year he is under in 35 of 55 games (64%). He has failed to top the line in six consecutive road games, managing only 0.5 H+R+RBI per outing during that span. Despite a neutral pitching matchup, Harrelson trusts the trend and market signal — DraftKings, Hard Rock, Fliff and Sleeper all list the Under around –125 — as evidence that the books expect another quiet day from the struggling Met.

Eric Pathi advised an automatic bet on the Pittsburgh Pirates at +130 ("plus 30 cents") as home underdogs against the division-leading New York Mets. Pittsburgh just delivered as a home dog the previous day, and Pathi’s system says to ride them again whenever the market still gives plus money. The matchup fits multiple angles: Pirates sit at the bottom of their division, Mets at the top—yet the line remains generous to the dog. By pairing the play with his long-standing 46% home-dog win rate, Pathi believes the Pirates offer positive expected value for Friday’s game and should be fired on without additional handicapping.

Reichel wants to fade Mets starter Paul Blackburn by playing the Pirates’ first-five team total over. Blackburn sports a 6.62 ERA and has allowed at least three earned runs in four consecutive starts. Luis Burrows is expected to open for Pittsburgh after throwing 2⅓ innings on Wednesday, so New York’s suspect middle relief could appear early. Even though the Pirates’ offense is unreliable, Reichel sees enough cracks in Blackburn’s profile to expect a couple of early runs at plus money.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the Mets money line. Paul Blackburn’s modest numbers are balanced by a Pirates squad starting Bailey Falter, who owns a 5.12 ERA in June and has given up six runs across his last 10.2 frames with shaky control (five walks). New York’s bullpen ranks 7th with a 3.40 ERA versus Pittsburgh’s 17th-place 3.92 mark, and the Mets hold a .744 team OPS compared to the Pirates’ .639 (29th in MLB). New York has taken seven of the last ten head-to-head, giving the tout confidence to back the road favorite.

Kenny G said the Pirates are worth a stab at +130 because the matchup tilts their way in several key areas. Paul Blackburn drags a 0-2 record and 6.62 ERA into PNC Park after allowing three earned over 4.2 frames in his last start and has been bounced between the rotation and bullpen all season. Conversely, Bailey Falter sits at 6-3 with a 3.59 ERA, and while his recent outings (3 ER in each of the past two) were just OK, Kenny noted Falter’s ability to limit hard contact and the Pirates’ quietly improving 3.92 bullpen ERA as reasons Pittsburgh can hold a lead. He added that New York’s issues lie in an inconsistent lineup (13th in runs, 18th in average) and a rotation that too often leaves the pen over-taxed. Pittsburgh is 20-21 at home compared to the Mets’ 19-22 road mark, so the park factor is essentially neutral, and Kenny feels the plus-price justifies backing the Buccos.

Eric Pathi advised hammering the Pittsburgh Pirates at +130 in game two against the Mets. His underdog system says whenever a last-place team wins big as a home dog (Pirates just crushed New York 9-1) and is installed as a home dog again the very next day, you blindly back them. Pathi emphasized that traditional handicapping—pitching matchups, ERAs, trends—does not matter for this angle; it is a pure situational play the professional betting groups he follows profit from. With Pittsburgh still in the NL Central cellar and the Mets atop the NL East, the Pirates fit the profile perfectly, making them today’s value side.

B Wade recommended Juan Soto OVER 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs. After an early slump with the Mets, Soto has erupted for six homers in his last seven contests, including two multi-homer games, and has cleared 2.5 H+R+RBI in four of his past five. He owns a .375 batting average (3-for-8) in a limited sample against lefty Bailey Falter and remains the centerpiece of a New York lineup looking to bounce back from Friday’s dud. Given the power surge and a soft Pittsburgh pitching matchup, Wade expects at least one long ball or multiple run-producing plate appearances to push Soto over the number.

Eric Lindquist urged bettors to grab the Pirates moneyline against New York because David Peterson is primed for negative regression. Peterson is carrying a .270 expected batting average against while giving up barrels across the board. Lindquist believes Pittsburgh’s left-handed core—Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Nick Gonzales, and an apparently healthy Oneil Cruz—can punish that contact profile. He added that the Mets bullpen is more taxed than usual after Griffin Canning’s freak injury the previous day, giving Pittsburgh the late-inning advantage. With plus money available, Lindquist sees this as an ideal spot to fade Peterson and ride the Bucs.

Matt Perrault advised betting the Mets moneyline on Friday primarily because Mitch Keller has been a disaster at PNC Park. Keller is 0-7 at home with a 4.58 ERA, .278 opponents’ average and 29 earned runs in 57 innings. Pittsburgh has dropped five straight and nine of the last ten games he has started. Perrault added that the Pirates sit just 20-21 at home overall, while New York comes in with renewed momentum after back-to-back 7-3 and 4-0 victories that snapped their slump. The Mets already own a 2-1 edge in the season series, winning 4-0 and 4-3 in Queens. Although David Peterson’s road ERA is a middling 3.86 and he is only 1-3 away from Citi Field, Perrault trusts him more than Keller in this matchup. The combination of Keller’s prolonged home struggles and the Mets’ recent offensive uptick led Perrault to lay the juice on New York.

Just A Bet Outside advised taking the Mets’ team total under (or Pittsburgh money-line) because the matchup with Mitch Keller has been brutal for New York’s hitters. Jeff McNeil (1-for-12), Francisco Lindor (3-for-17), and Pete Alonso (0-for-12 with three Ks) have combined for a .081 average off Keller. The right-hander has allowed three or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts and surrendered just two earned over seven frames when he faced the Mets on May 13. With David Peterson scuffling (eight earned in his last 11 IP) and Keller locked in, the tout expects another low-scoring night for the Flushing offense and recommends under 3.5 runs or lower.