Kenny G laid the –135 with Houston to avoid a four-game sweep, citing a massive bullpen edge and Oakland’s inevitable regression. While rookie lefty JT Ginn has been solid (1 ER over 5 IP in his lone recent start), Kenny reminded listeners the A’s relief corps owns the league’s worst ERA and will be exposed once Ginn exits. Houston counters with southpaw Colton Gordon, who has delivered two strong outings in his last five and already held Oakland to three runs back on June 28. Despite the Astros offense going cold this series, they still sit second in MLB batting average and eighth in OBP on the season. Oakland’s recent surge is powered by Nick Kurtz’s debut, but Kenny doubts a lineup that is only 15th in runs can keep punishing an Astros bullpen that has been top-10 most of 2025.

Kenny G recommended laying –210 with Houston, even if it will not be his pinned "lock." Hunter Brown is 9-4 with a 2.57 ERA and, despite three shaky starts coming out of the break, now faces an Oakland lineup that is just 17th in runs and drags a 5.45 bullpen ERA. Jacob Lopez (3-6, 4.60 ERA) has been torched in three straight outings and rarely reaches the sixth inning. While the Astros’ bats have cooled (14th in runs) Kenny pointed out they still rank 2nd in batting average and 9th in OBP and own a 33-19 record at Minute Maid Park. Oakland is just 22-31 away from home. With Brown’s prior success against the A’s back in May and Houston’s elite bullpen backing him up, Kenny believes the high price is warranted and advises Astros moneyline.

The Bettor Mark said he is officially playing Oakland’s team-total Over 3.5 at +130. His angle is a straight fade of Hunter Brown, noting the Houston right-hander has surrendered 3, 4 and 6 runs in his last three outings despite facing merely average offenses (Texas, Seattle, Cleveland, Colorado). Brown’s June dominance (four total runs over five starts) has evaporated, and Mark sees the metrics “falling off a cliff.” If Brown’s recent 4–5 inning ceiling holds, the mediocre Astros bullpen will also be exposed, creating multiple paths for four Athletic runs. At plus money, he called it one of his favorite value plays on the card and a way to profit if the game turns into the shoot-out he envisions.

With no official lines posted yet, Lonte Smith said he is waiting to see the number but fully intends to play Houston –1.5 once the market opens. Oakland has scored fewer than three runs in four straight and managed only five total runs in a three-game sweep at the hands of Texas. The Astros, meanwhile, just swept Arizona on the road and return to Minute Maid having won four straight despite yet another injury to closer Bryan Abreu. Smith acknowledges starter Joey Estes (projected opener Springs) has been serviceable away from Oakland but pointed to seven homers allowed in his last six outings and a bullpen that ranks 29th in ERA. He will use the Astros as a parlay piece if the moneyline is too steep but prefers the run line to maximize return against an A’s club he simply labeled "a fade until further notice."

Kenny G urged listeners to grab Houston at –130, calling it a potential “lock of the day.” His case: Oakland has dropped four straight and is 42-62 overall, while Luis Severino sits at 3-11 with a 5.10 ERA and just gave up nine hits in five innings the last time he saw these Astros. The A’s carry the second-worst bullpen in MLB, so even a rare solid Severino outing likely unravels late. Houston, meanwhile, has rattled off four wins in a row, ranks second in batting average and eighth in OBP, and has plated 4-3-6-11 runs during the streak. Spot starter Jason Alexander has already handled Oakland once (6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER in a 13-3 romp) and if he stumbles, a 3.30 ERA bullpen can slam the door. Kenny thinks all of those edges justify laying the short price on a five-game card.

Cash Out Sports Picks took the Houston Astros moneyline. The Astros have won three of their last four and crush right-handed pitching, while Oakland starter Severino has hemorrhaged 12 runs over his previous three starts and 16 in his last three road turns. Behind him sits one of MLB’s weakest bullpens. Houston’s staff, conversely, is among the league’s best at preventing runs. Oakland has scored only 20 runs in six games against Houston this season and has dropped three of four overall. Given the stark pitching mismatch and the A’s shaky offense, he sees the Astros as the clear side.

Bill Harrelson recommended taking Tyler Soderstrom for less than 6.5 fantasy points on Underdog (also available on PrizePicks). The pick is strictly numbers-driven: Soderstrom has failed to clear 6.5 in 7 of his last 10 games and 14 of his last 20 (70 %). Versus Houston specifically he is 8-for-10 to the under, including all three games of this series and six straight overall. On the 2025 season he is under in 61 of 102 games (60 %), and when you expand to last season (60 contests) the rate is 68 %. Across the 170-game sample he sits near a 65 % under clip, well above the break-even threshold implied by Underdog’s payout table. Harrelson concluded the line should be closer to 5.5, making the current 6.5 a clear value play on the under.

Brad PickDawgz recommended Astros moneyline versus Oakland even though Houston is likely running a bullpen game. He acknowledged the listed starter’s ugly ERA but still preferred the significantly stronger lineup and a club that has been ‘super solid at home all season.’ Brad called the current price ‘pretty damn good’ for a team he views as clearly superior and expects Minute Maid Park to remain a major edge.

B Wade backed Jose Altuve over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs. The veteran has cashed this prop in 7 of his last 10 and 3 of 5 since the All-Star break. Altuve owns a .346 average (9-for-26) in a large sample versus Luis Severino, who now allows an average of 6.6 hits per start to Houston. Wade noted Altuve’s .291 clip against right-handers and pointed out that every time Altuve has missed this prop against Oakland since the start of last season he has hit it in the very next game. With Severino’s stuff in decline, Wade expects Altuve to reach base multiple times and drive in or score at least one run.

B Wade said to take Luis Severino under 4.5 strikeouts on Thursday. The handicap leans on three data points: (1) Severino has topped 4.5 Ks only three times in his last ten outings; (2) the Astros own the eighth-lowest team strikeout rate in MLB, fanning fewer than eight times per game; and (3) Severino’s home/road split is drastic—he has not cleared this number on the road since mid-May and has done so only twice away from home all season. Add in a career track record that shows he fares worse in Houston than in Oakland and B Wade believes the punch-out ceiling simply is not there.

Harrelson recommended taking Tyler Soderstrom under 6.5 fantasy points on Underdog. The pick is strictly numbers-driven: Soderstrom has stayed below this mark in 7 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20 games (70 %). Against Houston he is 8-for-10 to the under, including six straight in the current series. Over a 102-game 2025 sample he is hitting the under 60 % of the time, and when you add last season’s 68 % clip the combined 170-game sample settles around 65 %. With sportsbooks still hanging 6.5, Harrelson sees clear value and called it his third-favorite play of the day, but still strong enough to include in his three-pick sweep attempt.

Lindquist once again circled Brent Rooker as a home-run bet. Rooker sports a 0.386 xwOBA and elite bat speed, while Houston is expected to start right-hander Jason Alexander before turning to a bullpen that lacks left-handed options. That platoon setup gives Rooker multiple cracks at righties in a park that boosts right-handed pull power. Lindquist is less interested in teammate Nick Kurtz because the Crawford Boxes penalize opposite-field lefty power, making Rooker the clear target.

Martin will only look Astros against Oakland. Houston sits 59-42 with clear advantages in lineup depth and bullpen quality, while projected A’s starter Luis Severino is just 3-11 and surrendered nine hits in five innings the last time he faced the Astros. Even if Houston opts for a bullpen game, Martin sees enough edge to justify a money-line play up to roughly –150/–160; beyond that, he’d shift to a –1 run-line to keep juice manageable.

Rockford projected Houston as a –160 favorite assuming rookie right-hander Ryan Gusto gets the nod opposite Luis Severino, so any price below that is a green light on the Astros moneyline. He noted Houston has flipped the switch, winning three straight while leading MLB in opponent batting average over the past ten games. Minute Maid Park has been a cash machine—33-19 straight up—and the Astros still boast a top-five bullpen. Oakland, meanwhile, owns one of the league’s worst relief corps and has cratered since the All-Star break. Severino is 0-2 against Houston because the A’s pen routinely implodes after he exits. Given form, bullpen disparity, and home dominance, Rockford is laying anything shorter than –160 with Houston.