Ron Romanelli rode with Pittsburgh on the moneyline, highlighting Bailey Falter’s sub-3.00 ERA at PNC Park and a Rangers lineup that owns dreadful numbers versus southpaws over the past 30 days. Jack Leiter’s recent control woes (multiple four-walk outings) add to the edge, and while the Pirates are minus suspended reliever Dennis Santana, Ron still trusts the remaining bullpen pieces to protect a late lead. He also noted Pittsburgh’s markedly better home record compared with Texas’ uneven road mark.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Texas on the moneyline, highlighting edges in the bullpen and lineup. Ranger relievers sit fourth in MLB with a 3.30 ERA, while Pittsburgh’s pen ranks 17th at 4.10. Over the last 13 games Texas is plating 5.0 runs per outing compared to the Pirates’ meager 3.07 over their previous 14. Texas has taken five of the last six head-to-head matchups. With postseason urgency and Pittsburgh buried in the NL Central, the tout viewed the Rangers as the clear side.

Malcolm Bamford echoed Reichel’s angle, calling the first-five under his top pick. He praised deGrom’s continued brilliance (2.90 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) and pointed out that Burrows’ strikeout stuff keeps him competitive despite shorter outings. Offensively the clubs combine for just 6.8 runs per game and neither hits much above .230. With two struggling lineups and two in-form starters, he expects a low-scoring first half, projecting four runs or fewer before the bullpens enter.

Reichel likes the first-five innings under when Jacob deGrom squares off with Mike Burrows. DeGrom sports a 2.90 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and even on the road has been dominant, while Burrows has surrendered just three total runs across his last three starts. Pittsburgh’s offense is bottom-five in most scoring metrics and Texas averages only 3.6 runs away from Arlington. With both pitchers unlikely to work deep, Reichel wants to isolate the starters, playing the F5 under before bullpens muddy the waters.

Reichel likes the first-five innings under when Jacob deGrom squares off with Mike Burrows. DeGrom sports a 2.90 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and even on the road has been dominant, while Burrows has surrendered just three total runs across his last three starts. Pittsburgh’s offense is bottom-five in most scoring metrics and Texas averages only 3.6 runs away from Arlington. With both pitchers unlikely to work deep, Reichel wants to isolate the starters, playing the F5 under before bullpens muddy the waters.

Matt Perrault said Jacob deGrom’s underlying numbers point to another shutdown outing and bet the Pirates’ team-total under 2.5 runs at +122. DeGrom owns a 2.86 ERA on the road and is holding opponents to a .186 average, surrendering only nine earned runs in 28.1 road innings. Pittsburgh is dead-last in MLB scoring and has fallen under 2.5 runs in seven of its last eight games, posting run totals of 2-1-2-3-2-(8) during that stretch. Perrault thinks DeGrom’s swing-and-miss stuff plus the Pirates’ anemic bats create a strong correlation play even though Rangers ML is –190, making the plus-money team-total under the better value.

Eric Patti said the Pittsburgh Pirates are a worthwhile bet at +160 as home underdogs against the Texas Rangers. His rationale: home-dog spots are historically profitable and Pittsburgh has quietly made money at PNC Park despite a terrible overall record. Bettors who backed every Pirates home game in 2025 would be up $31, whereas they would be down $1,152 on the road and $1,121 overall (29-45 record, –11 units). Patti framed this split as proof the team plays far better in front of its crowd and advised an "auto-bet" on the Pirates when oddsmakers hang a big plus number like Friday’s +160. He noted the Rangers are laying –194 on the road, creating a favorable price gap. With no additional injuries or pitching surprises to sway him, Patti labeled the Pirates the complimentary selection for Friday’s slate.

Just A Bet Outside hammered the Pirates team-total under 5.5, hanging his hat on Jacob deGrom’s dominance and Pittsburgh’s limited ceiling. The Bucs have stayed below six runs in 66 of 76 games (87%), and now they draw deGrom’s 2.19 ERA and 12-of-14 streak of allowing two or fewer earned. The overall game total is just 7.5, Texas’ bullpen has quietly rounded into mid-pack form, and the park offers no weather boost. The host called six runs ‘borderline impossible’ here and locked the under in as the safety valve leg of his three-team parlay.

Just A Bet Outside said Jacob deGrom’s strikeout prop is worth attacking because everything lines up for a ceiling game. Pittsburgh owns the 5th-highest K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last three weeks (23.9%), and deGrom’s own swing-and-miss profile spikes on the road – a massive 33.9% strikeout rate away from Arlington compared to just 20.9% at home. The ace has piled up 80 punch-outs in 82.1 innings despite a few starts where Texas let him cruise, and he has fanned left-handed bats at a 29.5% clip, an important note with the Pirates running out multiple lefties. With deGrom limiting opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 11 straight starts, volume should follow if his pitch count is normal. The host framed it as both a DFS anchor play and a spot to bet the over on his K prop.

Cash Out Sports Picks made Texas his best side of the day. Pittsburgh must fly home after a Thursday double-header and immediately face Jacob deGrom, who owns a 2.19 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 80 strikeouts across 82 1/3 innings. Road splits are equally nasty: 2.86 ERA, .186 BAA in 28.1 IP. The Pirates’ offense has cratered—last in the NL Central and generating little power—while scheduled starter Josh Furrows brings a hittable 4.24 ERA and .267 opponent average. With the Rangers desperate to stop a mini-skid and still sporting the more explosive lineup, the tout advised laying the juice on Texas money-line.