Bettor Mark leaned toward UNDER 8 in Blue Jays-Mariners. He cited an uninspiring matchup for both offenses with Seattle's home park suppressing power, plus right-hander Evans facing Bowden Francis who profiles as a strike-thrower capable of limiting damage. Mark said he would only "dabble in props" otherwise, but if taking a side, his numbers point to a low-scoring game and the posted total of 8 gives just enough cushion.

He also played the OVER, noting both clubs are 8-2 to the over in their last 10. Pitching inconsistencies force each side to lean on offense. While Francis should limit damage relative to Seattle’s usual production, the Mariners still possess pop at home and will press to avoid a series loss. Toronto understands it must keep swinging after plating runs in the opener. Given shaky bullpens and current run-scoring form, Cash Out Sports Picks forecasts a back-and-forth game that eclipses the posted total.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the Blue Jays moneyline. Toronto is 4-1 in its last five games at T-Mobile Park, and Bowden Francis dominated Seattle earlier this season, allowing one run over six frames in a 3-1 victory. The Jays desperately need their first series win in a month, and the Mariners have scuffled at home versus this opponent. If Francis repeats anything close to that previous outing, Toronto’s lineup—which woke up in Game 1—should cash as a modest favorite.

Kenny G was willing to grab the Blue Jays at +105 despite their flaws. The angle is Bowden Francis’ track record versus Seattle: six innings of one-run ball in their April meeting. Francis has been roughed up in three straight since, but Kenny thinks a familiar opponent he’s already solved gives him a bounce-back path. On the other side, 23-year-old Logan Evans carries a 7.20 ERA after being torched by the light-hitting Rangers for 11 knocks and six earned; Kenny called that outing a ‘red flag’ that Seattle may have rushed him. Toronto’s bullpen (4.24 ERA) and offense (24th in runs) are mediocre, yet he feels those warts are baked into the price. Seattle’s pen is elite and the lineup is 7th in runs, but Kenny trusts the plus money and the pitching matchup history more than the raw team strength. He labeled it a “light play, not a hammer,” but still sees value on the Jays.

Data Skrive advised betting the game over the listed 8-run total. Both clubs have been consistent over teams lately: the Mariners and their opponents have cleared the total in eight of the past 10, and the Blue Jays have hit the over in eight of their last 10 as well. Seattle is plating 5.7 runs per game over that span, fueled by 11 homers, while Toronto is scoring 4.6 runs with 12 long balls. The pitching sets up favorably for runs—Seattle’s staff has a 4.10 ERA in its last 10, and Toronto’s sits at 5.15—while both bullpens have been worked heavily. With warm May weather at T-Mobile Park and neither starter possessing swing-and-miss stuff (Seattle’s Logan Evans 7.2 K/9 in his last three outings), Data Skrive expects the offenses to push the combined score past eight.

Data Skrive projected a 6-5 Seattle win and assigned the Mariners a 57% victory probability, which translates to implied odds of roughly ‑133. Because the actual line sits at ‑124, bettors are getting a small edge on the moneyline. Seattle has cashed 62.5% of the time when favored this season (15-9) and an even better 66.7% mark (12-6) specifically when priced at ‑124 or shorter. The club is hot, winning six of its last eight games as a favorite while averaging 5.7 runs during that stretch. Toronto, meanwhile, is just 10-13 as an underdog and has dropped 60% of contests when priced at +104 or longer. With the Blue Jays’ pitching staff carrying a 5.15 ERA across the past 10 games, Data Skrive recommends laying the modest juice on Seattle.

Lonte Smith made Mariners team total Over 4.5 his favorite play on the Saturday slate. Toronto lefty Bowden Francis has imploded for 14 earned runs on 21 hits across his last 12 innings and has yet to complete the fifth frame in any start. Seattle’s offense, averaging 5.1 runs in May and top-five in hard-hit rate since J.P. Crawford returned, draws a perfect matchup in hitter-friendly T-Mobile with temperatures in the mid-70s. Smith pointed out that Francis’ heater averages just 91 mph and gets tagged for a .429 xBA, while the Mariners slug .511 against sub-92 fastballs. Whether Seattle starts Logan Gilbert or emergency arm Levi Evans, Smith expects the lineup to carry the game and played the team total up to 5.

Martin laid -122 with Seattle, emphasizing team form: the M’s are 22-14 and 8-2 over their last 10, while Toronto is 6-12 on US soil and has dropped four of five. Blue Jays starter Bowden Francis is in freefall, surrendering 11 earned across his last seven innings and winless in his last four road starts. Seattle debuts rookie Logan Evans, who showed well in his lone home outing. More importantly, the Mariners boast MLB’s best numbers versus right-handed pitching, giving their lineup a clear edge. Martin called the 22-cent tax “short” given the trajectory of both clubs.

Eric MacPherson recommended Luis Castillo as a popular SP2 at $8,400 DK/$9,200 FD. Castillo still misses bats (9.3 K/9 with Seattle) and draws a Blue Jays lineup that is third-worst in total bases and second-worst in home runs (26 on the season). Outside of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Santander, Toronto lacks scary bats, and the club owns the league’s third-lowest strikeout rate, limiting floor concerns but capping ceiling just enough to keep Castillo's salary down. With the Jays implied for only 3.9 runs and T-Mobile Park’s pitcher-friendly dimensions, MacPherson sees Castillo as the slate’s best value arm.

Kenny G gave a slight nod to Seattle –140 behind Luis Castillo. Castillo enters with a 3.29 ERA after back-to-back dominant showings versus Miami and Texas, and the Mariners bullpen remains a strength. Offensively Seattle has jumped to 2nd in OBP, 7th in runs and 12th in batting average with Cal Raleigh and J.P. Crawford leading the surge. Toronto’s bats are ice-cold, sitting 27th in both runs and slugging, and their bullpen is bottom-half. Kevin Gausman is coming off a gem, but Kenny warned of a "let-down spot" and pointed to Toronto’s 5-12 road record (best road under mark at 11-5-1) versus Seattle’s 12-6 home record. Given the pitching form, bullpen edge and offensive disparity, Kenny prefers the Mariners moneyline albeit without enough conviction for a pinned best bet.

Lonte Smith made Seattle his LOCK, grabbing the Mariners at –135 and sprinkling their team-total Over. Seattle has ripped off eight wins in ten games, is 12-6 at T-Mobile Park, and is averaging five-plus runs in eight of those ten victories while batting .304 against right-handed pitching during the span. Luis Castillo has been ‘underwhelming overall,’ but Smith pointed out he has allowed only one earned run across his last two starts and limited this same Blue Jays club to three runs over seven innings on April 20. The bigger issue is Toronto’s lifeless offense: four straight losses, a 3-7 slide overall, a .227 road average, and just 2.7 runs per nine away from Rogers Centre. Kevin Gausman’s road splits are historically solid, yet Smith sees an offense trending in opposite directions as the primary edge and projected Seattle to ‘bury’ Toronto 5-2 or 6-3.

Eric Lindquist leaned toward the Mariners at –125 because he trusts their spacious home park to mask Luis Castillo’s 10.2 % barrel-rate issues while Kevin Gausman’s trademark splitter hasn’t fooled hitters (13.6 % barrel rate) the way it did in 2023. Gausman is throwing the pitch even more this season but seeing a .467 xSLG on it, and Toronto will be coming in on no rest after a West-Coast night game in Anaheim. Lindquist added that Seattle’s bullpen is fully stocked whereas the Jays used multiple leverage arms on Thursday, making the modest home price a value spot for straight money-line bettors.

Backing Seattle at -141, Chris Vasile cited two converging angles: a Jays bullpen he "already doesn’t trust" and Luis Castillo’s ability to put the Mariners in front early. Toronto’s relievers own a league-worst 5.47 ERA and have coughed up leads in four of their last six appearances. Meanwhile, Castillo has a 2.59 ERA at T-Mobile Park since the start of 2024 and is limiting opponents to a .202 batting average this season. Vasile anticipates a classic Castillo "gem"—six or more innings with double-digit swing-and-misses—allowing Seattle’s top-10 leverage bullpen to shorten the game. Given the expected pitching disparity both at the start and the end, he views the Mariners moneyline as the smart side.

Even with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. riding a 10-game hitting streak, Data Skrive’s model still makes Seattle a worthy lay at -139 and likes the Over 7.5. The projections respect the Mariners’ 22-14 start, 14-6 home record at T-Mobile Park, and J.P. Crawford’s own 15-game streak that has pushed the club to 5.0 runs per game over the last week. Simulations spit out 5.1–3.9 in favor of Seattle (59% win probability) with 9.0 combined runs, suggesting room on both the moneyline and total.