Connor Allen endorsed taking the Titans’ over 5.5 wins (+105) and even a speculative 9-to-1 AFC South ticket because he believes first-round rookie Cam Ward materially raises their floor. Allen compared Ward’s collegiate tape to early-career Deshaun Watson—mobile enough to extend plays but looking to win from the pocket with a stronger-than-advertised arm. Tennessee’s offensive line sits 22nd in his preseason trench rankings, a "middle-of-the-pack" unit he views as good enough once James Hudson slides to right tackle. Ward inherits a sneaky skill group headlined by Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, Tajay Spears and veteran chain-movers Van Jefferson and Tyler Lockett. Allen thinks Ward’s off-script ability will steal two or three games the market does not account for, making it “no shock at all” if Tennessee finishes ahead of the Colts and stays live in a division where only Houston projects as a prohibitive favorite.

Connor Allen called Trevor Lawrence a worthwhile 50-to-1 MVP dart if you are already bullish on Jacksonville. He sketched out the path: the Jaguars would need 11–12 wins because MVP voters rarely reward quarterbacks below that threshold, and the defense or run game will not carry them there. That means Lawrence must replicate the Baker-Mayfield-in-Tampa stat line Cohn coaxed out the past two seasons—around 4,700 yards and 42 touchdowns. Given Lawrence’s first healthy offseason in two years, upgraded weapon set, and a late-season schedule where Jacksonville is favored in all but one contest, Allen believes the top-range outcome is firmly in play and the 50-to-1 number compensates for the longshot nature.

Connor Allen said a +300 ticket on Jacksonville to win the AFC South is worth a bite because their offensive ceiling is every bit as high as Houston’s yet the market prices them a full tier lower. Allen noted Liam Cohn scrapped last season’s stale scheme in favor of more zone-based looks that fit the personnel, and the Jaguars finally have the dogs around Trevor Lawrence—Brian Thomas Jr. after a monster rookie year, Travis Hunter playing more offense, and no longer relying on depth pieces like Parker Washington. The schedule opens brutally (Panthers, at Bengals, Texans, at 49ers, Chiefs) so he expects volatility, which is why he refuses to lay any minus juice on Jacksonville futures, but the plus-money divisional price captures their top-end range without exposing bettors to their wider floor.

Connor Allen advised passing on the Texans at +110 to win the AFC South and even floated taking the +125 “miss-the-playoffs” number instead. His hesitation centers on an offensive line that Justin Edwards ranks 31st league-wide. Per Allen, only Titus Howard graded even a tick above average at 39th/81 starters on PFF’s 2024 charting, while the other four projected starters were average or worse. Houston also swapped coordinators to Nick Caley and overhauled the skill group – Christian Kirk, rookies Jaden Higgins and Jalen Noel – creating chemistry risk. With so much turnover up front, Allen expects a rocky start, notes the club is favored in just nine games, and sees realistic scenarios where they finish second despite an otherwise soft divisional slate. He concluded the Texans remain the best roster in the AFC South on paper, but the trench issues make laying a plus price on the division—or any over 9.5 win ticket—unwise.

Connor Allen recommended fading the Raiders’ updated 6.5-win total (-145 to the over). He grabbed over 5.5 earlier but argues the new number overshoots their realistic ceiling. Las Vegas is favored in only four games, with seven more contests listed inside a 3-point spread, signaling a narrow needle to thread. Allen’s concerns center on a bottom-three secondary headlined by injury-prone Eric Stokes and rookie Dante Porter, a questionable linebacking corps, and Christian Wilkins still in a walking boot after last year’s Lisfranc injury. Offensively, the wide-receiver room ranks near the league’s worst, forcing heavy reliance on rookie RB Ashton Genti and Geno Smith behind an average line. Allen pegged the most likely win range at 6-8, making plus money on the under 6.5 attractive.

Connor Allen pitched RJ Harvey as a late-round fantasy dart who could graduate into Denver’s lead back by mid-season. Allen reminded listeners that the Broncos were dreadful on the ground last year—cycling through Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and even Tyler Badie before injuries struck—yet still ran at a high rate because of Sean Payton’s philosophy. Denver responded by spending a second-round pick on the ultra-explosive Harvey, then signing J.K. Dobbins as short-yardage insurance. Allen envisions Dobbins soaking up early down and goal-line snaps initially, but emphasized Harvey’s three-down skillset and pass-catching chops as the path to a full takeover once the rookie proves reliable in protection. With a beefed-up offensive line and a defense likely to keep game scripts neutral, Allen expects plenty of rushing volume and called Harvey “pass-catching plus — and maybe the entire role down the stretch.” He recommended scooping Harvey in Best Ball and Season-Long formats before August ADP catches up to the outsized ceiling.

Connor Allen recommended staying away from—or outright betting under—Najee Harris’ season-long rushing totals given a murky eye injury and his late arrival to the Chargers system. Harris opened camp on the NFI list, and Allen highlighted the lack of concrete medical updates, noting we still don’t know if surgery is required or how much vision has been compromised. Even if Harris suits up by Week 1, he will be jostling for reps with Amarian Hampton, who has already been running with the starters. Allen emphasized that Harris is not a returning veteran in this playbook and will need practice time to learn protections and route concepts. With the Chargers eager to establish the run behind their improved line, any early-season absence or slow ramp-up could leave Harris in a timeshare all year, making current over/unders in the 800-yard range far too optimistic.

Connor Allen said the 4-to-1 price on Isiah Pacheco to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards is a worthwhile upside bet. Allen reminded listeners that Pacheco nearly hit that mark (830 yards in just 14 games) two seasons ago when he was the unquestioned starter. Last year’s late-season drop-off was tied to a lingering injury and major offensive-line shuffling, not a talent decline. With Kansas City returning 20 of 22 starters and investing in two new tackles, Allen expects cleaner run blocking and believes the Chiefs will first give Pacheco every chance to reclaim full work-horse duties. If he remains healthy and avoids an early benching, Allen projected Pacheco to land “right around” the 1,000-yard mark, making the 4.00 odds a profitable dart throw in season-long rushing leader markets.

Connor Allen called the Packers to draft a wide receiver first at +700 on DraftKings, labeling it a rare mis‑price for a franchise that finally looks ready to break its no‑WR‑in‑Round‑1 streak. Allen said internal buzz around Green Bay suggests GM Brian Gutekunst has Tetairoa McMillan as the WR1 on his board and would sprint to the podium if the Arizona star slips past pick 12. If McMillan goes earlier, Allen sees Emeka Egbuka as the fallback, meaning Green Bay has two clear ‚outs‘ to the ticket. He argued the depth chart screams for an alpha—Jordan Love’s vertical mindset is wasted on a room topped by slot‑only Jaden Reed, inconsistent burner Christian Watson, and unreliable Romeo Doubs. Derek Brown chimed in that Jaire Alexander’s likely retention pushes corner down the priority list, further strengthening the WR case. With local beats echoing McMillan love and the roster holes aligning, Allen believes the true probability is closer to 25‑30 percent, making the 7‑to‑1 price a must‑bet.

Connor Allen said bettors should grab the Steelers to take a defensive lineman or edge rusher first at +225. Allen merged beat‑writer chatter with roster needs, noting multiple Pittsburgh reporters have downplayed quarterback interest while stressing Mike Tomlin’s desire to fortify the front four. The Steelers sit at pick 21 and have a realistic shot at blue‑chip interior or edge prospects such as Kenneth Grant, Walter Nolen or Derek Harmon. Allen argued that if the organization truly loved a quarterback—Jackson Dart, Jalen Milroe or even Shedeur Sanders—it would be maneuvering into the top 10 rather than standing pat. Because the betting board still lists QB as a co‑favorite, Allen believes the D‑line option is mispriced and should be closer to +120.

Connor Allen advised taking Matthew Golden at +160 to be the first wideout selected. Allen said multiple plugged‑in evaluators, including Daniel Jeremiah, view the Golden‑versus‑Tetairoa McMillan debate as a coin flip, yet the market still prices McMillan as the clear favorite. Allen’s sourcing around the Cowboys front office indicates Dallas prefers Golden’s field‑stretching speed to complement CeeDee Lamb’s underneath dominance, making pick 12 a realistic floor. If McMillan does not come off the board before Dallas, Golden becomes the de facto favorite. Given that Allen sees the true odds close to 50/50, the plus‑money ticket represents value in a draft market that can move violently once inside information leaks.

Connor Allen recommended grabbing Tyler Warren at +800 to be the exact No. 9 pick. Allen believes the market is pricing the slot incorrectly because bookmakers have made Shedeur Sanders the favorite for New Orleans, yet every report he has seen says the Saints front office is not enamored with Sanders. If they pass on a quarterback, Warren—who Allen views as a near‑lock to go somewhere in the top‑10 thanks to his elite size/speed profile and unique "Kittle‑meets‑Taysom Hill" versatility—immediately becomes the cleanest fit on the board. Allen added that defensive line is the only other realistic alternative, so the number of viable outcomes is small, making the 8‑1 price a worthwhile long‑shot investment.

Connor Allen reminded the audience that he grabbed Ashton Jeanty at 20‑to‑1 in the 4for4 Discord two weeks ago and still likes the RB at 12‑to‑1 to land with New Orleans. He laid out a scenario where Chicago, holding pick 10 and two early second‑rounders, could use that ammo to jump Carolina at 8 and snipe Jeanty—proof that multiple teams value the Boise State back as a fringe top‑10 talent. Allen added that Saints GM Mickey Loomis has shown a willingness to ignore positional value when he loves a prospect (citing the 2022 Chris Olave trade‑up) and that Jeanty’s three‑down skill set would immediately relieve Alvin Kamara’s heavy workload. He called any double‑digit price on Jeanty “mis‑aligned with the league’s view” and worth a speculative wager.

Connor Allen encouraged listeners to sprinkle the 8‑to‑1 price on the Rams’ first selection being a quarterback. He pointed out that Los Angeles sits in no‑man’s‑land late in Round 1, giving them the flexibility to take a swing on a long‑term Matthew Stafford successor rather than chase a specific position of need. Allen argued that Sean McVay has historically prioritized upside at the position and noted that Stafford’s contract becomes easy to move on from after the 2025 season. Shedeur Sanders is the obvious target if he slides—Allen compared Sanders’ arm talent to Jared Goff’s and said the dome environment would mitigate any concerns about pure velocity—but he believes the ticket pays even if the Rams prefer Michael Pratt or Quinn Ewers. With Los Angeles linked to multiple positions in public mocks, the quarterback prop remains depressed at +800; Allen thinks fair value is closer to +500 given Stafford’s age, the franchise’s willingness to move future picks, and McVay’s stated desire to groom the next guy now rather than later.

Connor Allen admitted he was initially skeptical when Kelvin Banks’ draft‑slot prop steamed from 24.5 to 18.5 and now sits at 13.5 (‑110 both sides at multiple shops). After re‑running team‑by‑team scenarios, Allen decided the Under is finally worth a wager. He pointed out that Banks has been linked to every club from the Giants at 6 through the Colts at 14, giving bettors up to nine outs for the ticket to cash. Allen emphasized that mock‑draft aggregator VR shows Banks going as high as 7 in 10‑percent of simulations, and no credible mock in the past week has him falling past pick 15. With tackle‑needy teams like the Titans, Niners, and Dolphins clustered in that range, Allen now views the 13.5 line as a late market catch‑up rather than an over‑reaction and is comfortable firing on the Under before it potentially drops to 12.5.

Connor Allen advised fading the –150 consensus price on Ashton Gentie to the Raiders at No. 6 and instead sprinkling Amarius Mims at 10‑to‑1. While Gentie is the popular mock‑draft choice, Allen noted that new personnel chief John Spytek has historically broken ties toward premium positions—something Spytek reiterated in a quote tweeted by Albert Breer during the show. Las Vegas already has Maxx Crosby, Tyree Wilson, Malcolm Koonce and a solid front seven but a glaring hole on the right side of its offensive line. Mims can start immediately at right tackle or slide to guard, matching Pete Carroll’s trenches‑first M.O. Allen also argued the running‑back class is deep enough for the Raiders to address the position on Day 2, making a Round‑1 back a poor allocation of resources. Given the organizational philosophy and roster construction, he believes Mims at double‑digit odds is the clear value pivot if Gentie is merely market chalk.

Connor Allen said he “has a tough time putting anyone other than Mason Graham” in Jacksonville’s No. 5 slot. He cited new GM James Gladstone’s repeated public comments—six separate press appearances—about rebuilding the interior trenches and noted Gladstone’s Rams background, where L.A. aggressively traded up for defensive tackles such as Braden Fisk. Graham’s profile as an elite interior disrupter fits that blueprint. While Allen conceded another offensive lineman could be in play, he stressed that media mock‑draft consensus and Gladstone’s history point squarely to Graham, making the Michigan star a strong bet in ‘First Non‑QB Defender Selected’ and exact pick markets.