Ryan Noonan leaned under on New York’s 5.5-win total, stressing they face the NFL’s most difficult schedule "by a margin." He ticked off problems on both sides of the ball: a bottom-10 offensive line that craters when Andrew Thomas misses time, a receiving corps still thin beyond Malik Nabers, and a run game that provides no ballast for closing out tight contests. While he likes the upgraded pass rush with Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux, Noonan doubts the secondary and run defense can survive weekly short fields produced by offensive stalls. He projects only two or three wins before the Week 7 bye and sees little cushion the rest of the way, making any over ticket dependent on multiple sizeable upsets.

Connor Allen recommended taking a stab at Dak Prescott 40-to-1 to win NFL MVP. He reasoned that if Dallas reaches 12-13 victories – something Allen believes is in play given a softer NFC and possible Eagles regression or injury – voters will credit Prescott rather than a non-quarterback like Christian McCaffrey. Allen noted the Cowboys’ pass-heavy identity and projected Prescott to flirt with 5,000 passing yards, pointing out that no other player on the roster profiles as a plausible MVP candidate. With sportsbooks still hanging 30-to-40:1, Allen views the price as a mis-aligned ceiling outcome bet on team success translating directly to quarterback accolades.

Ryan Noonan circled Jack Sanborn’s tackle over for Week 1 at Philadelphia, declaring he will bet any posted number around 7.5–8.5. Sanborn has secured the green dot as Dallas’s every-snap middle linebacker in Matt Eberflus’s scheme, guaranteeing he will be on the field for run-heavy Eagles drives. Philadelphia ranked top-three in rush rate inside neutral game script last season and returns the same overpowering offensive line, meaning Dallas linebackers should be cleaning up tackle opportunities. Noonan noted Sanborn averaged 11.0 tackles per start during his stint with Chicago and called him an "absolute dog" who could flirt with 15-plus stops if game flow tilts toward the run as expected.

Connor Allen endorsed Discord member Jake Lodenberg’s wager on Javonte Williams under 550.5 rushing yards for the season. Allen pointed out that Williams finished 48th out of 52 qualifiers in success rate last year and graded poorly in every advanced rushing metric—yards after contact, missed tackles forced, EPA per rush—"just so bad across the board." With Miles Sanders already sidelined, rookie Jaden Blue dinged, and the Cowboys offensive line no longer elite, Allen expects Dallas to lean on Prescott’s arm rather than a committee headlined by an inefficient Williams. A middle-of-the-pack line plus a likely top-five pass rate leaves Williams staring at sub-9 carries per game, making 551 rushing yards a tall order even if he stays healthy.

Connor Allen disclosed two wagers already in his portfolio: Dak Prescott to lead the league in passing yards at 12-to-1 and Dak over 4,500 yards at +350. Allen noted Prescott was on a 4,500-yard pace before his Week-9 injury last season and actually hit 4,900 yards the year before. The 2025 roster gives him his best receiving corps yet—CeeDee Lamb commanding a 30% target share plus George Pickens stretching the boundary. Dallas ranked 28th in defensive EPA last season and lost additional pieces in free agency, making shootouts likely. Their run game is crippled (Miles Sanders hurt, Javonte Williams 48th of 52 RBs in success rate, rookie Jaden Blue already limited), pushing pass rate well above league average. Allen believes those ingredients combine for a realistic 5,000-yard ceiling, giving the alt line and yardage crown strong value.

Ryan Noonan argued that CeeDee Lamb’s 1,200-yard season prop at plus money is mispriced because Dallas cannot get Dak Prescott to 4,000–4,500 passing yards without Lamb eclipsing that number. Prescott has cleared 4,500 in two of his past three healthy seasons and was on pace for it again before last year’s injury. The new Pickens-Lamb duo forces defenses to play honest, increasing Lamb’s catchable targets. With Brian Schottenheimer calling run-pass-option heavy concepts and a backfield Noonan labeled "one of the worst in football," Dallas projects top-five in pass attempts. Lamb already owns a 30% target share; at that volume a modest 8.7 yards per target lands him around 1,350 yards. Noonan called the plus-money over a "really good look" and a correlated wager alongside any Dak alternate-yardage bets.

Ryan Noonan said bettors should keep hammering George Pickens longest-reception overs, a market he profited from last year and expects to be even better in Dallas. Noonan’s logic: the Cowboys will be forced to throw 40-plus times because their backfield (Miles Sanders already hurt, Javonte Williams graded bottom-5 in success rate, rookie Jaden Blue banged up) offers no reliable rushing efficiency behind an offensive line that now grades middle of the pack. That volume combines with Pickens skill set—elite ball-tracking and willingness to win outside the numbers—to create weekly one-play spike potential. Safety help can no longer bracket CeeDee Lamb because defensive coordinators must respect Pickens on the same side, leaving him isolated against CB2s. Noonan expects defensive breakdowns against a thin secondary schedule and believes Pickens will cash 23-plus-yard reception tickets repeatedly.

Ryan Noonan leaned toward betting the Commanders to miss the playoffs at +122 on Caesars. He called 2024 a "dream season" driven by the league’s easiest schedule, an unsustainable 87 % fourth-down conversion rate, and several wins that hinged on strange variance—Hurts’ first-quarter concussion, the Giants playing without a kicker, and a late two-point stop versus New Orleans. Up front, Javon Kinlaw, Daron Payne and Dietrich Wise all rank outside PFF’s top-78 interior defenders, and the line faces what Adam Chernoff grades as one of the five toughest opposing-RB slates. Noonan likes the offensive upgrades but doubts a defense that lost pass-rush talent can repeat 10 wins in a wide-open NFC.

Connor Allen revealed he already bet Deebo Samuel Under 725.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel) but urged listeners to wait until Terry McLaurin’s contract standoff is resolved before following. Allen expects Washington to use Samuel almost exclusively on low-aDOT touches while McLaurin stretches the field; if McLaurin signs, Deebo’s role caps his yardage ceiling even if the catch count is healthy. Conditioning is another concern—reports say Samuel showed up to camp out of shape for the second straight year, echoing last season’s career-low 11.3 YPC. With Jayden Daniels likely living in the short passing game, Allen considers anything in the mid-700s a clear under once McLaurin is back in uniform.

Ryan Noonan said alt-market overs on Jalen Hurts’ passing attempts and yards are the only futures he wants exposure to on Philadelphia. Median projections price Hurts around 25 throws because the Eagles usually lean run-heavy, but Noonan reminded listeners that any game in which Philly falls behind or decides to lean on A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith can spike Hurts to 35–40 attempts. Books struggle to account for that tail outcome, leaving +300-type ladder bets mis-priced whenever the Eagles are underdogs or face another high-end offense. Rather than laying juice on division odds, Noonan plans to hunt those weekly alt overs whenever the game script hints at a track meet.

Connor Allen said he is eager to keep betting Jalen Hurts anytime-touchdown props this year because the Eagles’ Tush Push quarterback-sneak package remains legal and every bit as dangerous. Allen reminded listeners that Philadelphia was "absolutely dominant" with the play last season, turning virtually every 4th-and-short or goal-to-go snap into either a first down or six points. With the same top-rated offensive line intact and the coaching staff willing to treat 4th-and-1 anywhere past midfield as four-down territory, Allen expects Hurts to continue seeing multiple high-leverage rushing attempts per game. He views that volume, plus likely early-season plus-money odds, as a clear betting edge in touchdown-scorer markets.

Connor Allen flagged Woody Marks at 150-to-1 for Offensive Rookie of the Year as a mis-priced longshot. Allen noted that veteran Joe Mixon is "likely to miss significant time" because of multiple foot injuries and accumulated wear, opening immediate snaps and targets for Marks, whom coaches already trust in hurry-up with the first team. Marks’ pass-catching profile fits the staff’s stated desire to throw more to backs, and Allen prefers attacking that wide outcome range with OROY futures rather than fragile season-long over props. He urged bettors to sprinkle the 150-1 before Marks’ camp buzz or a Mixon shutdown forces books to reprice.

Connor Allen warned drafters about D'Andre Swift’s floor in Chicago backfields for both season-long and best-ball formats. He pointed out that the Bears unsuccessfully tried to select a running back three different times on Day 2 of the draft—an admission they are not married to Swift. Allen also reminded listeners that when Ben Johnson was calling plays in Detroit, Jamal Williams out-carried Swift by roughly 150 attempts, suggesting Johnson prefers a bruising early-down option. Swift will likely open as the 1A, but Allen sees a 'non-zero' chance Chicago pivots mid-season—via a trade for someone like Travis Etienne or by elevating Roschon Johnson or rookie Kyle Monangai—leaving Swift as a 1B or even a straight backup. With Swift’s ADP rising, Allen believes the risk/reward profile is skewed toward downside and is fading him at current prices.

Ryan Noonan said he already bet Caleb Williams to clear 4,000 passing yards in the season-long market. Noonan compared Jared Goff’s first season in Detroit under Anthony Lynn (3,200 yards, 6.6 Y/A, 19 TD, 8 INT) with the very next year when Ben Johnson took over (4,400 yards, 7.6 Y/A, 29 TD, 7 INT) to show the impact Johnson’s play-calling can have on both volume and efficiency. He argued the Bears are following the same blueprint—upgrading the offensive line, surrounding the quarterback with better weapons, and hiring Johnson—so a similar statistical jump is realistic. Noonan dismissed the “no Bears QB has ever hit 4K” narrative as irrelevant to a modern, aggressive Johnson offense and called the current 4,000-yard prop a mis-priced number he wants to attack.

Connor Allen forecasted a sluggish first month for Caleb Williams and the Bears’ offense but expects noticeable improvement as the season progresses. Early camp reports described the unit as ‘a mess’ while Williams adjusts to playing under center and learning Ben Johnson’s scheme, yet the last several practices showed clear progress in two-minute drills. Allen highlighted Chicago’s upgraded offensive line, first-round tight end Colston Loveland already running with the starters, and a deep receiving corps led by Rome Odunze and DJ Moore as reasons the offense should ‘hum’ once Williams settles in. Fantasy managers should be patient early and target Williams for mid-season DFS or trade windows when public sentiment is still lukewarm.

Ryan Noonan urged bettors who are optimistic about Minnesota to bypass the 8.5-win total and instead attack upside markets: +320 to win the NFC North and 13-1 to win the conference. He argued that Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy defense creates high-variance games, while the re-built offensive line and interior pass rush upgrades (Jonathan Allen, Javon Hargrave) give the roster genuine top-end potential. Because the range of outcomes skews boom-or-bust, Noonan prefers long-shot futures that pay off if the Vikings hit their upper percentile rather than a binary win-total grind.

Connor Allen recommended betting the season-long UNDER on Aaron Jones’ 750-yard rushing prop. Allen expects newly–acquired Jordan Mason to handle most of the goal-line and early-down work, forcing a true split that caps Jones’ volume. He noted insider reports (via Crack Rock) that Minnesota plans to keep Jones fresh, plus Jones’ own durability history that has limited him to 12.2 carries per game over the past three seasons. With a top-10 interior offensive line now in place, the Vikings can stay efficient on the ground without leaning on one back, making 750 yards ‘a lot’ for a part-time runner who still carries injury downside.

Ryan Noonan thought the Vikings were a buy at OVER 8.5 wins when the market opened near -110, but he is passing now that most shops have moved to 9.5. His early-season optimism hinged on Kevin O’Connell’s track record developing quarterbacks—citing what he coaxed from Sam Darnold and an aging Kirk Cousins—and a red-shirt year of meetings for first-round pick J.J. McCarthy. Even with Jordan Addison’s expected two-to-three-game suspension and Justin Jefferson nursing a minor hamstring tweak, Noonan likes the core of McCarthy, Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and a sturdy offensive line. He also praised Brian Flores’ defense, which ranked second in EPA last season, for keeping Minnesota competitive. The schedule becomes brutal after the bye, so he no longer sees value at a 9.5 number, but would still grab 8.5 if it reappears.

Connor Allen is watching the Calvin Ridley injury closely and plans to hammer Cam Ward’s Week 1 passing-yards UNDER (posted at 195) if Ridley is ruled out against Denver. Allen thinks Ward would struggle to reach even 150 yards without his No. 1 receiver, leaving Tyler Lockett, Alec Pierce, and Chigoziem Okonkwo as uninspiring options against a Broncos secondary that projects as top-five in EPA allowed to quarterbacks. The thin pass-catching group plus Mike Vrabel’s historical lean toward run-heavy game scripts makes Allen confident Ward’s line is at least 30–40 yards too high in a Ridley-less scenario.

Ryan Noonan advised skipping the Packers’ 9.5-win total and instead taking their +300ish price to win the NFC North or a small sprinkle on their conference futures. Noonan argued Green Bay’s range of outcomes is wide: the roster has legitimate ceiling if the young pass-rush trio (Devonte Wyatt, Lukas Van Ness, Kingsley Enagbare) finally produces and Jordan Love continues last year’s late-season trajectory. The defense finished top-five in turnover rate despite limited pressure, suggesting another gear if the front develops. With what he calls a ‘wide-open’ NFC and memories of the Packers being one game from the Super Bowl two seasons ago, Noonan prefers the higher-payout paths over a binary win-total sweat.

Connor Allen said he already bet Matthew Golden’s season–long receiving-yards UNDER when it opened at 750 and would still play the current 700 number. Allen’s skepticism centers on a muddled target tree in Green Bay. Beat-writer buzz has Jaden Reed kicking outside more often, which could turn two-WR sets into a Reed/Doubs alignment and leave Golden fighting for snaps in the slot. Allen expects the Packers to lean on 12-personnel with Tucker Kraft heavily involved, further capping Golden’s volume. Combine that with Golden’s unproven NFL profile and Allen doesn’t think the rookie can command the 90-plus targets he’d need to clear 700 yards.

Connor Allen called the Packers a worthwhile NFC North futures play at +270. Look-ahead lines have Green Bay favored in 13 of 17 games, and while only one of those is by seven-plus points, Allen believes the cumulative edge of being a slight favorite nearly every week positions them well against a Lions roster facing coordinator and offensive-line uncertainty. Green Bay retained continuity on the league’s youngest roster, added more receiving talent, and fields a defensive front loaded with recent first-rounders (Rashan Gary, Devonte Wyatt, Lukas Van Ness, Quay Walker) that Allen expects to outperform last year’s turnover-dependent results. With multiple plausible paths to double-digit wins, he sees +270 (or anything longer than +250) as mispriced and bet-worthy.

Connor Allen predicted a meaningful jump in Green Bay’s aerial attack with Jordan Love finally healthy. Using data he saw from Fantasy Points, Allen highlighted that the Packers were –8.2 % pass-over-expectation while Love played hurt, but flipped to +3.6 % when he was healthy—top-10 territory league-wide. The front office doubled down on weapons by drafting Matthew Golden to join Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks, giving Love a four-deep receiver rotation. Although Allen expects Josh Jacobs to remain the primary runner, he doesn’t foresee the extreme run-heavy script of prior seasons. That combination of health, play-calling tendency and skill-player depth makes Love an upside QB target and raises the ceiling for all Packers pass-catchers in season-long and best-ball formats.

Ryan Noonan said bettors should be cautious taking the Detroit Lions over 10.5 wins and leaned to the under. He pointed out that an offensive line which had been "arguably top-three" has fallen apart: All-Pro center Frank Ragnow retired, free-agent guard Kevin Zeitler chased a payday in Tennessee, and left-tackle Taylor Decker is on the PUP list after shoulder surgery with no timetable. Without that elite protection, Jared Goff’s efficiency ceiling shrinks. Noonan also stressed the uncertainty of new play-caller John Morton, whose only coordinating sample was the 2017 Jets, making it risky to assume Ben Johnson-level sequencing. Detroit is projected to be a touchdown-plus favorite only twice (Giants and Browns at home) and could face a late-season snow game in Chicago that historically hurts “baby-hand Goff.” Add the tougher overall slate and he sees many more paths to nine or ten wins than another 12-plus-win season, making the over a pass and the under the only actionable side.

Connor Allen warned fantasy managers to steer clear of Joe Mixon, predicting an extended absence. He cited multiple recent foot injuries, a troubling 3.3 yards-per-carry last season, and camp comments from Mixon’s coach emphasizing age and accumulated damage—"not exactly a compliment." Allen believes the wear-and-tear narrative plus back-to-back lower-body setbacks makes Mixon a poor season-long investment, advising drafters to pivot to cheaper backfield options (he specifically mentioned Woody Marks and even a speculative Nick Chubb share) rather than chase Mixon at his current ADP.

Connor Allen said he is betting under 10.5 wins on Detroit. He outlined several red-flag items: both coordinators are gone, with innovative play-caller Ben Johnson replaced by veteran journeyman John Morton, whose only prior OC stint (2017 Jets) produced middling results. Allen worries Jared Goff is a "sum-of-his-parts" quarterback who regresses whenever the environment is less than perfect. Key skill players have health questions (Amon-Ra St. Brown post-surgery, David Montgomery dinged up, and Jameson Williams still unproven). Defensively, Aaron Glenn lost additional staffers and was already compensating by blitzing at unsustainably high rates late last year. Finally, Detroit’s schedule is brutal: road trips to Baltimore, Kansas City, Washington, Philadelphia, and the Rams, plus the NFC East and AFC North cross-divisional slates. With natural regression after a 15-win season and coordinator upheaval, Allen expects the Lions to fall short of 11 victories.

Ryan Noonan recommended grabbing Aidan Hutchinson at 6-to-1 on Caesars to finish the season as the NFL sack leader. In his first projection run Hutchinson came out two sacks clear of the field. Noonan admitted Miles Garrett is the best per-snap pass-rusher but expects Cleveland to trail often, forcing Garrett into fewer obvious passing downs as opponents lean on the run. Detroit, on the other hand, should protect more leads, giving Hutchinson a steady stream of pass-rush snaps. Noonan called the play a bit chalky yet still mispriced and reminded listeners that Caesars is currently taking action at that number.

Connor Allen said the Vikings are being discounted at 13-to-1 on DraftKings to win the NFC. He argued the number should be much closer to Detroit’s 5-to-1 because Minnesota was a 13-win club two seasons ago and has since fixed its biggest weakness—the interior offensive line—while adding multiple defensive pieces and potentially upgrading at quarterback. Allen believes the market is docking the Vikings roughly five wins simply due to the uncertainty surrounding J.J. McCarthy, a risk he thinks is over-baked. He framed the bet as a swing for upside, noting last year’s playoff loss to a Rams roster built to exploit their old line issues should not be viewed as a referendum on the current team.

Connor Allen suggested taking a flier on the Minnesota Vikings at 13-to-1 to win the NFC, arguing the number should be much closer to Detroit’s 5-to-1 price. He views Kevin O’Connell’s coaching edge and an offense stacked with explosive playmakers as reasons the Vikings can reach double-digit wins and a top playoff seed. With four strong teams in the North likely to cannibalize each other, Allen thinks market perception is suppressing Minnesota’s odds and sees the 13-1 ticket as a worthwhile upside swing for bettors willing to embrace variance.

Ryan Noonan outlined a divisional betting strategy built on fading the Lions in exacta or dual forecast markets. Detroit closes the year with six brutal games—back-to-back road trips to Baltimore and Cincinnati, visits to Philadelphia, Green Bay, and San Francisco, plus a Week-18 divisional matchup he believes will still matter. Noonan noted the Lions are projected favorites in only one of those six contests, making an 8–9 win season entirely plausible. He prefers pairing Green Bay with either Minnesota or Chicago in first-second exacta tickets, arguing that any of those teams could get to 10–11 wins if Detroit stumbles. The payoff is a plus-money way to leverage Detroit’s tough schedule and lock in upside if the Lions finish third or worse.

Noonan named Baltimore his preferred Super Bowl futures bet, noting that unlike Houston or Jacksonville, the Ravens are a fully formed roster that can survive injuries everywhere except quarterback. He highlighted Lamar Jackson’s MVP-level ceiling, the league’s deepest secondary, and a defensive front that remains elite in both pressure rate and run stopping. With only Kansas City and Buffalo profiling as true peers in the AFC, he sees a clear path to a 1- or 2-seed that secures home playoff games, arguing a current 12-to-1 Super Bowl price (widely available) underrates a team that projects as top five in both offensive and defensive EPA per play. In a wide-open NFC, Noonan expects whichever AFC power reaches the big game to be favored, giving a Ravens ticket extra leverage once the postseason starts.

Ryan Noonan endorsed the Jaguars at +300 to win the AFC South, arguing the price underrates their ceiling relative to the Texans. He trusts 25-year-old Trevor Lawrence far more than the Anthony Richardson/Daniel Jones platoon in Indianapolis and sees Houston’s porous offensive line as a real path for an upset. Noonan pointed out that two-way rookie Travis Hunter could immediately upgrade a secondary already anchored by Tyson Campbell, while Liam Cohn’s pass-heavy scheme puts the offense squarely on Lawrence’s shoulders. If Hunter contributes even 30% of defensive snaps and the coordinator squeezes more out of a front seven that already boasts a solid linebacking corps, Noonan believes Jacksonville’s roster balance gives them enough outs to overtake Houston, making the 3-to-1 payout worth a bet.

Ryan Noonan recommended betting against the Titans’ current 5.5-win number, explaining that even the optimistic Cam Ward scenario still caps them at roughly six victories. He flagged multiple red flags: Dan Moore is a pricey stop-gap on an already shaky line, and outside of Calvin Ridley the pass-catching group hinges on an aging Tyler Lockett. Defensively they lost talent, replaced it with cheaper bodies, and now need an already-ailing L’Jarius Sneed to rebound while a thin corner room offers little help. Noonan doubts any edge rusher sniffs 10 sacks, forcing Jeffrey Simmons to serve as the alpha pass-rush threat—never ideal when your best player wins on the interior. The preseason lines show Tennessee favored in only two games, including a brutal Week-1 trip to altitude in Denver, and Noonan believes the combination of a bottom-tier secondary and limited pass rush will keep them stuck in the 5-6 win range that cashes the under.

Connor Allen endorsed taking the Titans’ over 5.5 wins (+105) and even a speculative 9-to-1 AFC South ticket because he believes first-round rookie Cam Ward materially raises their floor. Allen compared Ward’s collegiate tape to early-career Deshaun Watson—mobile enough to extend plays but looking to win from the pocket with a stronger-than-advertised arm. Tennessee’s offensive line sits 22nd in his preseason trench rankings, a "middle-of-the-pack" unit he views as good enough once James Hudson slides to right tackle. Ward inherits a sneaky skill group headlined by Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, Tajay Spears and veteran chain-movers Van Jefferson and Tyler Lockett. Allen thinks Ward’s off-script ability will steal two or three games the market does not account for, making it “no shock at all” if Tennessee finishes ahead of the Colts and stays live in a division where only Houston projects as a prohibitive favorite.

Ryan Noonan told listeners to stop treating Anthony Richardson as a 2025 fantasy cheat code or the key to Colts futures. Noonan highlighted Richardson’s brutal 46-percent completion rate from a clean pocket and reminded everyone the former Gator has logged fewer combined college and NFL snaps over the past two years than Zach Wilson, Josh Dobbs, or Desmond Ridder. Indianapolis is splitting first-team reps with Daniel Jones, and Noonan expects the veteran to start Week 1 because Shane Steichen and GM Chris Ballard are coaching for their jobs. That desperation makes it harder for the staff to live through Richardson’s learning curve, capping his chances of even seeing the field, let alone hitting the top-5 rushing QB ceiling fantasy gamers crave. Noonan put Richardson’s probability of delivering a division-contending season at “five to ten percent” and advised passing on his 9th-round best-ball ADP and fading Colts win-total or playoff tickets that assume he plays 17 games.

Ryan Noonan leaned toward the Colts’ 7.5-win over despite the quarterback mess, arguing that everything else on the roster points to competence. PFF rates the offensive line 10th, Shane Steichen added Penn State mismatch tight end Tyler Warren, and the receiving corps still features Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. On defense, new coordinator Lou Anarumo imported corner Charvarius Ward and safety Cam Bynum while banking on a healthy front of DeForest Buckner and sophomore edge Liatu Latu—whose per-snap pressure metrics were elite—to inch the unit from middle-of-the-pack EPA toward fringe-top-10. Noonan conceded Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson must at least provide "average" QB play, but with only four games where Indy is an underdog of three or more, he expects them to clear the number more often than not.

Connor Allen called Trevor Lawrence a worthwhile 50-to-1 MVP dart if you are already bullish on Jacksonville. He sketched out the path: the Jaguars would need 11–12 wins because MVP voters rarely reward quarterbacks below that threshold, and the defense or run game will not carry them there. That means Lawrence must replicate the Baker-Mayfield-in-Tampa stat line Cohn coaxed out the past two seasons—around 4,700 yards and 42 touchdowns. Given Lawrence’s first healthy offseason in two years, upgraded weapon set, and a late-season schedule where Jacksonville is favored in all but one contest, Allen believes the top-range outcome is firmly in play and the 50-to-1 number compensates for the longshot nature.

Connor Allen said a +300 ticket on Jacksonville to win the AFC South is worth a bite because their offensive ceiling is every bit as high as Houston’s yet the market prices them a full tier lower. Allen noted Liam Cohn scrapped last season’s stale scheme in favor of more zone-based looks that fit the personnel, and the Jaguars finally have the dogs around Trevor Lawrence—Brian Thomas Jr. after a monster rookie year, Travis Hunter playing more offense, and no longer relying on depth pieces like Parker Washington. The schedule opens brutally (Panthers, at Bengals, Texans, at 49ers, Chiefs) so he expects volatility, which is why he refuses to lay any minus juice on Jacksonville futures, but the plus-money divisional price captures their top-end range without exposing bettors to their wider floor.

Connor Allen advised passing on the Texans at +110 to win the AFC South and even floated taking the +125 “miss-the-playoffs” number instead. His hesitation centers on an offensive line that Justin Edwards ranks 31st league-wide. Per Allen, only Titus Howard graded even a tick above average at 39th/81 starters on PFF’s 2024 charting, while the other four projected starters were average or worse. Houston also swapped coordinators to Nick Caley and overhauled the skill group – Christian Kirk, rookies Jaden Higgins and Jalen Noel – creating chemistry risk. With so much turnover up front, Allen expects a rocky start, notes the club is favored in just nine games, and sees realistic scenarios where they finish second despite an otherwise soft divisional slate. He concluded the Texans remain the best roster in the AFC South on paper, but the trench issues make laying a plus price on the division—or any over 9.5 win ticket—unwise.

Ryan Noonan flagged an uncorrelated prop angle on Michael Mayer: taking the over on his reception total while simultaneously betting the under on his receiving yards. He pointed out that some shops are already hanging these two markets independently, creating a potential middle for bettors who expect Mayer to pile up short catches underneath while the Raiders’ offense funnels the higher-depth targets to Brock Bowers and Jacoby Myers. Because receptions and yardage props are typically tightly correlated, Noonan believes books are slow to adjust for Mayer’s low average-depth-of-target profile, making the over-receptions/under-yards combo a profitable niche play.

Connor Allen recommended fading the Raiders’ updated 6.5-win total (-145 to the over). He grabbed over 5.5 earlier but argues the new number overshoots their realistic ceiling. Las Vegas is favored in only four games, with seven more contests listed inside a 3-point spread, signaling a narrow needle to thread. Allen’s concerns center on a bottom-three secondary headlined by injury-prone Eric Stokes and rookie Dante Porter, a questionable linebacking corps, and Christian Wilkins still in a walking boot after last year’s Lisfranc injury. Offensively, the wide-receiver room ranks near the league’s worst, forcing heavy reliance on rookie RB Ashton Genti and Geno Smith behind an average line. Allen pegged the most likely win range at 6-8, making plus money on the under 6.5 attractive.

Ryan Noonan highlighted Evan Engram’s +850 price to score eight or more touchdowns as a mispriced prop. He argued eight scores is hardly a stretch given Engram’s expected red-zone usage: Courtland Sutton will command outside attention, leaving Engram as the primary middle-of-the-field and goal-line option in Sean Payton’s scheme that historically peppers tight ends inside the 10. Payton’s Saints averaged 26 tight-end red-zone targets per year; Engram saw 17 on a much worse Jacksonville offense last season. With Denver projected to operate inside the 20 far more often, Noonan sees double-digit touchdown upside at a price implying just 10.5% probability.

Ryan Noonan pointed bettors to the 8-to-1 price on RJ Harvey to lead the AFC West in rushing yards. He acknowledged Ashton Genti is the obvious roadblock, yet noted Harvey will be the unquestioned early-down option in Sean Payton’s run-centric attack. Denver returns its entire offensive line, upgraded depth with J.K. Dobbins, and projects for a top-10 rush rate in neutral scripts. With Kansas City and Las Vegas expected to split carries and the Chargers leaning more on Justin Herbert’s arm, Noonan believes Harvey can push 275 carries—enough volume to make 8-to-1 a value play if Genti falters or the Broncos control more game scripts than projections assume.

Connor Allen pitched RJ Harvey as a late-round fantasy dart who could graduate into Denver’s lead back by mid-season. Allen reminded listeners that the Broncos were dreadful on the ground last year—cycling through Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and even Tyler Badie before injuries struck—yet still ran at a high rate because of Sean Payton’s philosophy. Denver responded by spending a second-round pick on the ultra-explosive Harvey, then signing J.K. Dobbins as short-yardage insurance. Allen envisions Dobbins soaking up early down and goal-line snaps initially, but emphasized Harvey’s three-down skillset and pass-catching chops as the path to a full takeover once the rookie proves reliable in protection. With a beefed-up offensive line and a defense likely to keep game scripts neutral, Allen expects plenty of rushing volume and called Harvey “pass-catching plus — and maybe the entire role down the stretch.” He recommended scooping Harvey in Best Ball and Season-Long formats before August ADP catches up to the outsized ceiling.

Ryan Noonan advised backing Denver to make the postseason (-110 on Caesars) or simply playing the alternate over 9.5 wins at +110. Noonan argued that the Broncos’ 2024 profile of an 8-9 team followed by last year’s 10-7 mark now gets major reinforcements on both sides of the ball. He highlighted a defense that already ranked third in EPA against both the run and pass while finishing second in pressure rate and first in points allowed. The lone hole—linebacker depth—was patched by adding Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga plus first-round hybrid weapon Jaden Barron, giving coordinator Vance Joseph a fully stocked front seven. Offensively, Sean Payton imported second-round hammer RJ Harvey, goal-line insurance J.K. Dobbins, TE upgrade Evan Engram and big-bodied WR Pat Bryant, all behind an offensive line that projects top-10 in run blocking. With Payton’s track record as a talent maximizer, Noonan expects another step forward toward a fringe top-10 offense. He also pointed to a friendly early slate (Titans, Colts, Chargers, Bengals) that could see Denver roll into Week 5 at 4-0 before a soft Jets-Giants pairing. Given the combination of roster upgrades, coaching stability and a schedule peppered with get-right spots, Noonan believes playoff odds still sitting near even money are mispriced and offers bettors multiple angles to attack.

Connor Allen recommended staying away from—or outright betting under—Najee Harris’ season-long rushing totals given a murky eye injury and his late arrival to the Chargers system. Harris opened camp on the NFI list, and Allen highlighted the lack of concrete medical updates, noting we still don’t know if surgery is required or how much vision has been compromised. Even if Harris suits up by Week 1, he will be jostling for reps with Amarian Hampton, who has already been running with the starters. Allen emphasized that Harris is not a returning veteran in this playbook and will need practice time to learn protections and route concepts. With the Chargers eager to establish the run behind their improved line, any early-season absence or slow ramp-up could leave Harris in a timeshare all year, making current over/unders in the 800-yard range far too optimistic.

Ryan Noonan predicted Justin Herbert will run noticeably more this season, making his season-long rushing yard over an attractive play. Noonan reminded listeners that a foot injury severely limited Herbert’s mobility through last summer and into the first half of 2024, yet the quarterback’s scrambles climbed once the foot improved, culminating in a late-season spike. With the injury fully behind him, a beefed-up offensive line headlined by Mekhi Becton, and a receiving corps that still lacks consistent separators outside of Ladd McConkey, Noonan expects new OC Jesse Minter to green-light more designed keepers and scramble opportunities. That combination of health, scheme, and necessity, he argued, should push Herbert past the modest mid-300s yardage totals that books are hanging right now.

Connor Allen said the 4-to-1 price on Isiah Pacheco to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards is a worthwhile upside bet. Allen reminded listeners that Pacheco nearly hit that mark (830 yards in just 14 games) two seasons ago when he was the unquestioned starter. Last year’s late-season drop-off was tied to a lingering injury and major offensive-line shuffling, not a talent decline. With Kansas City returning 20 of 22 starters and investing in two new tackles, Allen expects cleaner run blocking and believes the Chiefs will first give Pacheco every chance to reclaim full work-horse duties. If he remains healthy and avoids an early benching, Allen projected Pacheco to land “right around” the 1,000-yard mark, making the 4.00 odds a profitable dart throw in season-long rushing leader markets.

Connor Allen reminded the audience that he grabbed Ashton Jeanty at 20‑to‑1 in the 4for4 Discord two weeks ago and still likes the RB at 12‑to‑1 to land with New Orleans. He laid out a scenario where Chicago, holding pick 10 and two early second‑rounders, could use that ammo to jump Carolina at 8 and snipe Jeanty—proof that multiple teams value the Boise State back as a fringe top‑10 talent. Allen added that Saints GM Mickey Loomis has shown a willingness to ignore positional value when he loves a prospect (citing the 2022 Chris Olave trade‑up) and that Jeanty’s three‑down skill set would immediately relieve Alvin Kamara’s heavy workload. He called any double‑digit price on Jeanty “mis‑aligned with the league’s view” and worth a speculative wager.