Ryan Noonan endorsed the Jaguars at +300 to win the AFC South, arguing the price underrates their ceiling relative to the Texans. He trusts 25-year-old Trevor Lawrence far more than the Anthony Richardson/Daniel Jones platoon in Indianapolis and sees Houston’s porous offensive line as a real path for an upset. Noonan pointed out that two-way rookie Travis Hunter could immediately upgrade a secondary already anchored by Tyson Campbell, while Liam Cohn’s pass-heavy scheme puts the offense squarely on Lawrence’s shoulders. If Hunter contributes even 30% of defensive snaps and the coordinator squeezes more out of a front seven that already boasts a solid linebacking corps, Noonan believes Jacksonville’s roster balance gives them enough outs to overtake Houston, making the 3-to-1 payout worth a bet.

Ryan Noonan recommended betting against the Titans’ current 5.5-win number, explaining that even the optimistic Cam Ward scenario still caps them at roughly six victories. He flagged multiple red flags: Dan Moore is a pricey stop-gap on an already shaky line, and outside of Calvin Ridley the pass-catching group hinges on an aging Tyler Lockett. Defensively they lost talent, replaced it with cheaper bodies, and now need an already-ailing L’Jarius Sneed to rebound while a thin corner room offers little help. Noonan doubts any edge rusher sniffs 10 sacks, forcing Jeffrey Simmons to serve as the alpha pass-rush threat—never ideal when your best player wins on the interior. The preseason lines show Tennessee favored in only two games, including a brutal Week-1 trip to altitude in Denver, and Noonan believes the combination of a bottom-tier secondary and limited pass rush will keep them stuck in the 5-6 win range that cashes the under.

Connor Allen endorsed taking the Titans’ over 5.5 wins (+105) and even a speculative 9-to-1 AFC South ticket because he believes first-round rookie Cam Ward materially raises their floor. Allen compared Ward’s collegiate tape to early-career Deshaun Watson—mobile enough to extend plays but looking to win from the pocket with a stronger-than-advertised arm. Tennessee’s offensive line sits 22nd in his preseason trench rankings, a "middle-of-the-pack" unit he views as good enough once James Hudson slides to right tackle. Ward inherits a sneaky skill group headlined by Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, Tajay Spears and veteran chain-movers Van Jefferson and Tyler Lockett. Allen thinks Ward’s off-script ability will steal two or three games the market does not account for, making it “no shock at all” if Tennessee finishes ahead of the Colts and stays live in a division where only Houston projects as a prohibitive favorite.

Ryan Noonan told listeners to stop treating Anthony Richardson as a 2025 fantasy cheat code or the key to Colts futures. Noonan highlighted Richardson’s brutal 46-percent completion rate from a clean pocket and reminded everyone the former Gator has logged fewer combined college and NFL snaps over the past two years than Zach Wilson, Josh Dobbs, or Desmond Ridder. Indianapolis is splitting first-team reps with Daniel Jones, and Noonan expects the veteran to start Week 1 because Shane Steichen and GM Chris Ballard are coaching for their jobs. That desperation makes it harder for the staff to live through Richardson’s learning curve, capping his chances of even seeing the field, let alone hitting the top-5 rushing QB ceiling fantasy gamers crave. Noonan put Richardson’s probability of delivering a division-contending season at “five to ten percent” and advised passing on his 9th-round best-ball ADP and fading Colts win-total or playoff tickets that assume he plays 17 games.

Ryan Noonan leaned toward the Colts’ 7.5-win over despite the quarterback mess, arguing that everything else on the roster points to competence. PFF rates the offensive line 10th, Shane Steichen added Penn State mismatch tight end Tyler Warren, and the receiving corps still features Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. On defense, new coordinator Lou Anarumo imported corner Charvarius Ward and safety Cam Bynum while banking on a healthy front of DeForest Buckner and sophomore edge Liatu Latu—whose per-snap pressure metrics were elite—to inch the unit from middle-of-the-pack EPA toward fringe-top-10. Noonan conceded Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson must at least provide "average" QB play, but with only four games where Indy is an underdog of three or more, he expects them to clear the number more often than not.

Connor Allen called Trevor Lawrence a worthwhile 50-to-1 MVP dart if you are already bullish on Jacksonville. He sketched out the path: the Jaguars would need 11–12 wins because MVP voters rarely reward quarterbacks below that threshold, and the defense or run game will not carry them there. That means Lawrence must replicate the Baker-Mayfield-in-Tampa stat line Cohn coaxed out the past two seasons—around 4,700 yards and 42 touchdowns. Given Lawrence’s first healthy offseason in two years, upgraded weapon set, and a late-season schedule where Jacksonville is favored in all but one contest, Allen believes the top-range outcome is firmly in play and the 50-to-1 number compensates for the longshot nature.

Connor Allen said a +300 ticket on Jacksonville to win the AFC South is worth a bite because their offensive ceiling is every bit as high as Houston’s yet the market prices them a full tier lower. Allen noted Liam Cohn scrapped last season’s stale scheme in favor of more zone-based looks that fit the personnel, and the Jaguars finally have the dogs around Trevor Lawrence—Brian Thomas Jr. after a monster rookie year, Travis Hunter playing more offense, and no longer relying on depth pieces like Parker Washington. The schedule opens brutally (Panthers, at Bengals, Texans, at 49ers, Chiefs) so he expects volatility, which is why he refuses to lay any minus juice on Jacksonville futures, but the plus-money divisional price captures their top-end range without exposing bettors to their wider floor.

Connor Allen advised passing on the Texans at +110 to win the AFC South and even floated taking the +125 “miss-the-playoffs” number instead. His hesitation centers on an offensive line that Justin Edwards ranks 31st league-wide. Per Allen, only Titus Howard graded even a tick above average at 39th/81 starters on PFF’s 2024 charting, while the other four projected starters were average or worse. Houston also swapped coordinators to Nick Caley and overhauled the skill group – Christian Kirk, rookies Jaden Higgins and Jalen Noel – creating chemistry risk. With so much turnover up front, Allen expects a rocky start, notes the club is favored in just nine games, and sees realistic scenarios where they finish second despite an otherwise soft divisional slate. He concluded the Texans remain the best roster in the AFC South on paper, but the trench issues make laying a plus price on the division—or any over 9.5 win ticket—unwise.

Ryan Noonan flagged an uncorrelated prop angle on Michael Mayer: taking the over on his reception total while simultaneously betting the under on his receiving yards. He pointed out that some shops are already hanging these two markets independently, creating a potential middle for bettors who expect Mayer to pile up short catches underneath while the Raiders’ offense funnels the higher-depth targets to Brock Bowers and Jacoby Myers. Because receptions and yardage props are typically tightly correlated, Noonan believes books are slow to adjust for Mayer’s low average-depth-of-target profile, making the over-receptions/under-yards combo a profitable niche play.

Connor Allen recommended fading the Raiders’ updated 6.5-win total (-145 to the over). He grabbed over 5.5 earlier but argues the new number overshoots their realistic ceiling. Las Vegas is favored in only four games, with seven more contests listed inside a 3-point spread, signaling a narrow needle to thread. Allen’s concerns center on a bottom-three secondary headlined by injury-prone Eric Stokes and rookie Dante Porter, a questionable linebacking corps, and Christian Wilkins still in a walking boot after last year’s Lisfranc injury. Offensively, the wide-receiver room ranks near the league’s worst, forcing heavy reliance on rookie RB Ashton Genti and Geno Smith behind an average line. Allen pegged the most likely win range at 6-8, making plus money on the under 6.5 attractive.

Ryan Noonan highlighted Evan Engram’s +850 price to score eight or more touchdowns as a mispriced prop. He argued eight scores is hardly a stretch given Engram’s expected red-zone usage: Courtland Sutton will command outside attention, leaving Engram as the primary middle-of-the-field and goal-line option in Sean Payton’s scheme that historically peppers tight ends inside the 10. Payton’s Saints averaged 26 tight-end red-zone targets per year; Engram saw 17 on a much worse Jacksonville offense last season. With Denver projected to operate inside the 20 far more often, Noonan sees double-digit touchdown upside at a price implying just 10.5% probability.

Ryan Noonan pointed bettors to the 8-to-1 price on RJ Harvey to lead the AFC West in rushing yards. He acknowledged Ashton Genti is the obvious roadblock, yet noted Harvey will be the unquestioned early-down option in Sean Payton’s run-centric attack. Denver returns its entire offensive line, upgraded depth with J.K. Dobbins, and projects for a top-10 rush rate in neutral scripts. With Kansas City and Las Vegas expected to split carries and the Chargers leaning more on Justin Herbert’s arm, Noonan believes Harvey can push 275 carries—enough volume to make 8-to-1 a value play if Genti falters or the Broncos control more game scripts than projections assume.

Connor Allen pitched RJ Harvey as a late-round fantasy dart who could graduate into Denver’s lead back by mid-season. Allen reminded listeners that the Broncos were dreadful on the ground last year—cycling through Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and even Tyler Badie before injuries struck—yet still ran at a high rate because of Sean Payton’s philosophy. Denver responded by spending a second-round pick on the ultra-explosive Harvey, then signing J.K. Dobbins as short-yardage insurance. Allen envisions Dobbins soaking up early down and goal-line snaps initially, but emphasized Harvey’s three-down skillset and pass-catching chops as the path to a full takeover once the rookie proves reliable in protection. With a beefed-up offensive line and a defense likely to keep game scripts neutral, Allen expects plenty of rushing volume and called Harvey “pass-catching plus — and maybe the entire role down the stretch.” He recommended scooping Harvey in Best Ball and Season-Long formats before August ADP catches up to the outsized ceiling.

Ryan Noonan advised backing Denver to make the postseason (-110 on Caesars) or simply playing the alternate over 9.5 wins at +110. Noonan argued that the Broncos’ 2024 profile of an 8-9 team followed by last year’s 10-7 mark now gets major reinforcements on both sides of the ball. He highlighted a defense that already ranked third in EPA against both the run and pass while finishing second in pressure rate and first in points allowed. The lone hole—linebacker depth—was patched by adding Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga plus first-round hybrid weapon Jaden Barron, giving coordinator Vance Joseph a fully stocked front seven. Offensively, Sean Payton imported second-round hammer RJ Harvey, goal-line insurance J.K. Dobbins, TE upgrade Evan Engram and big-bodied WR Pat Bryant, all behind an offensive line that projects top-10 in run blocking. With Payton’s track record as a talent maximizer, Noonan expects another step forward toward a fringe top-10 offense. He also pointed to a friendly early slate (Titans, Colts, Chargers, Bengals) that could see Denver roll into Week 5 at 4-0 before a soft Jets-Giants pairing. Given the combination of roster upgrades, coaching stability and a schedule peppered with get-right spots, Noonan believes playoff odds still sitting near even money are mispriced and offers bettors multiple angles to attack.

Connor Allen recommended staying away from—or outright betting under—Najee Harris’ season-long rushing totals given a murky eye injury and his late arrival to the Chargers system. Harris opened camp on the NFI list, and Allen highlighted the lack of concrete medical updates, noting we still don’t know if surgery is required or how much vision has been compromised. Even if Harris suits up by Week 1, he will be jostling for reps with Amarian Hampton, who has already been running with the starters. Allen emphasized that Harris is not a returning veteran in this playbook and will need practice time to learn protections and route concepts. With the Chargers eager to establish the run behind their improved line, any early-season absence or slow ramp-up could leave Harris in a timeshare all year, making current over/unders in the 800-yard range far too optimistic.

Ryan Noonan predicted Justin Herbert will run noticeably more this season, making his season-long rushing yard over an attractive play. Noonan reminded listeners that a foot injury severely limited Herbert’s mobility through last summer and into the first half of 2024, yet the quarterback’s scrambles climbed once the foot improved, culminating in a late-season spike. With the injury fully behind him, a beefed-up offensive line headlined by Mekhi Becton, and a receiving corps that still lacks consistent separators outside of Ladd McConkey, Noonan expects new OC Jesse Minter to green-light more designed keepers and scramble opportunities. That combination of health, scheme, and necessity, he argued, should push Herbert past the modest mid-300s yardage totals that books are hanging right now.

Connor Allen said the 4-to-1 price on Isiah Pacheco to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards is a worthwhile upside bet. Allen reminded listeners that Pacheco nearly hit that mark (830 yards in just 14 games) two seasons ago when he was the unquestioned starter. Last year’s late-season drop-off was tied to a lingering injury and major offensive-line shuffling, not a talent decline. With Kansas City returning 20 of 22 starters and investing in two new tackles, Allen expects cleaner run blocking and believes the Chiefs will first give Pacheco every chance to reclaim full work-horse duties. If he remains healthy and avoids an early benching, Allen projected Pacheco to land “right around” the 1,000-yard mark, making the 4.00 odds a profitable dart throw in season-long rushing leader markets.

Connor Allen reminded the audience that he grabbed Ashton Jeanty at 20‑to‑1 in the 4for4 Discord two weeks ago and still likes the RB at 12‑to‑1 to land with New Orleans. He laid out a scenario where Chicago, holding pick 10 and two early second‑rounders, could use that ammo to jump Carolina at 8 and snipe Jeanty—proof that multiple teams value the Boise State back as a fringe top‑10 talent. Allen added that Saints GM Mickey Loomis has shown a willingness to ignore positional value when he loves a prospect (citing the 2022 Chris Olave trade‑up) and that Jeanty’s three‑down skill set would immediately relieve Alvin Kamara’s heavy workload. He called any double‑digit price on Jeanty “mis‑aligned with the league’s view” and worth a speculative wager.

Ryan Noonan told bettors to grab the +410 on Houston’s first pick being a wide receiver instead of laying –225 on offensive line. He cited data from VR showing 87 percent of recent mocks tracking the Texans to O‑line, a figure he believes is artificially inflating the price because the team quietly shored up its trenches in free agency with Cam Robinson, Trent Brown, and Laken Tomlinson. Noonan walked through the current depth chart—former first‑rounder Kenyon Green, second‑rounders Drew Scruggs and Blake Fisher—and argued none of the interior spots are true vacancies. Conversely, Tank Dell is rehabbing a season‑ending injury and Nico Collins remains unsigned beyond 2025, leaving C.J. Stroud thin on long‑term pass‑catchers. He added that Tony Pauline recently linked Ohio State star Emeka Egbuka to Houston, reinforcing that the front office is eyeing big‑slot or Z options in Round 1. Noonan’s takeaway: if the O‑line certainty is real, the –225 should be closer to –350, but because Houston’s need profile and insider buzz tell a different story, the +410 on wide receiver is the mispriced angle worth firing on now.

Connor Allen encouraged listeners to sprinkle the 8‑to‑1 price on the Rams’ first selection being a quarterback. He pointed out that Los Angeles sits in no‑man’s‑land late in Round 1, giving them the flexibility to take a swing on a long‑term Matthew Stafford successor rather than chase a specific position of need. Allen argued that Sean McVay has historically prioritized upside at the position and noted that Stafford’s contract becomes easy to move on from after the 2025 season. Shedeur Sanders is the obvious target if he slides—Allen compared Sanders’ arm talent to Jared Goff’s and said the dome environment would mitigate any concerns about pure velocity—but he believes the ticket pays even if the Rams prefer Michael Pratt or Quinn Ewers. With Los Angeles linked to multiple positions in public mocks, the quarterback prop remains depressed at +800; Allen thinks fair value is closer to +500 given Stafford’s age, the franchise’s willingness to move future picks, and McVay’s stated desire to groom the next guy now rather than later.

Ryan Noonan flagged what he considers a mispriced market on Detroit’s first selection. Books have defensive line/edge at –180 for the Lions’ pick 28, but Caesars is dangling +220 on the team taking an offensive lineman. Noonan argued that replacing free‑agent departure Kevin Zeitler remains a priority for GM Brad Holmes, and several plug‑and‑play guards—Cooper Beebe, Troy Fautanu, and Christian Mahogany—grade in the late‑first range. Given that 50 percent of recent mock drafts tracked by VR slot an interior lineman to Detroit, Noonan believes the fair price should be closer to +140. He recommended a single‑unit play on the +220 number as a portfolio hedge against the chalky D‑line narrative, especially because a guard selection would also protect the franchise’s sizeable investment in Jared Goff.

Scott Smith told listeners that every one of his five Dallas‑area contacts—ranging from beat writers to regional scouts—believes the Cowboys prefer Houston speedster Matthew Golden over Tetairoa McMillan if they stay at pick 12. The front office traded for Jonathan Mingo last year to handle the big‑body X role, so they are now hunting a vertical field‑stretcher who can complement CeeDee Lamb. Golden averaged 2.8 yards per route run on go‑balls and posts in 2023, metrics Smith said Mike McCarthy specifically covets. FanDuel still lists Golden‑to‑Dallas at +195 in the exact‑player market, while Caesars shows +150. Smith has already wagered both numbers and urged bettors to grab anything north of +140, adding that only a surprise cornerback run or an unexpected slide by edge rusher Dallas Turner would push the Cowboys off the wide‑receiver plan.

Connor Allen admitted he was initially skeptical when Kelvin Banks’ draft‑slot prop steamed from 24.5 to 18.5 and now sits at 13.5 (‑110 both sides at multiple shops). After re‑running team‑by‑team scenarios, Allen decided the Under is finally worth a wager. He pointed out that Banks has been linked to every club from the Giants at 6 through the Colts at 14, giving bettors up to nine outs for the ticket to cash. Allen emphasized that mock‑draft aggregator VR shows Banks going as high as 7 in 10‑percent of simulations, and no credible mock in the past week has him falling past pick 15. With tackle‑needy teams like the Titans, Niners, and Dolphins clustered in that range, Allen now views the 13.5 line as a late market catch‑up rather than an over‑reaction and is comfortable firing on the Under before it potentially drops to 12.5.

Scott Smith said the name he keeps hearing most for San Francisco’s first‑rounder is Texas left tackle Kelvin Banks. Smith noted that the 49ers run a zone‑heavy rushing attack and value linemen who can start at guard on Day 1 while eventually kicking outside—exactly the developmental arc Banks followed under Steve Sarkisian. Caesars lists ‘Offensive Line’ as the Niners’ first‑pick market favorite at +190; Smith believes that number should be closer to even money given how often John Lynch has prioritized the trenches. While he did mention corner Will Johnson and defensive tackle Walter Nolen as possibilities, he leaned Banks because the front office historically drafts premium position players with immediate versatility. Smith advised betting Banks in exact‑team markets and sprinkling the +190 O‑line prop before it shortens.

Scott Smith flagged Alabama guard Tyler Booker as a live long‑shot to be the Colts’ first‑round pick, countering market group‑think that has Indianapolis locked into a tight end. Smith’s sources say Chris Ballard is focusing on raw power and run‑blocking dominance rather than pure Relative Athletic Score this year, and Booker scored elite marks on double‑team win rate and gap‑scheme success in SEC play. Booker has already taken an official visit to Indy and, per Smith, would immediately form one of the league’s nastiest interior duos alongside Quenton Nelson. Caesars currently offers +320 on the Colts’ first pick being an offensive lineman and 25‑to‑1 on Booker in exact‑player markets. Smith believes those numbers will shorten once teams finalize boards, noting Houston is rumored to covet Booker at pick 23, so Indianapolis may need to act at 14 if they want him.

Ryan Noonan told listeners that Carolina could shock the room by selecting Penn State tight end Tyler Warren at pick 8 if edge rusher Jalen Walker is off the board. He has heard from multiple league sources that Warren is one of only a handful of prospects the Panthers have given an across‑the‑board "blue‑chip" grade and that Dave Canales is lobbying for a move tight end who can be a day‑one focal point for Bryce Young. Noonan already holds 25‑to‑1 tickets on Warren‑to‑Carolina and pointed out that sportsbook discrepancies still exist: Caesars lists Carolina first‑tight‑end at 22‑to‑1 and Warren exact‑team at 17‑to‑1, while MGM and ESPN sit at 15‑to‑1. He advised grabbing any number north of 17‑to‑1, calling it "the best high‑variance dart left in the top‑10 market" because the Panthers are unlikely to trade down once on the clock.

Ryan Noonan said bettors should not lock themselves into the popular ‑125 "Jets first pick offensive lineman" prop and instead sprinkle the +750 currently posted at FanDuel for New York to draft a defensive lineman, with Michigan tackle Mason Graham the most likely name if the board breaks oddly at picks 5‑6. Noonan noted that the Jets scheduled an unusually high number of Top‑30 visits with defensive linemen and confirmed Graham was on that list, signalling genuine interest. He argued the franchise wants another culture‑setter up front and Graham’s elite run‑stopping grade and 9.60 RAS check every Joe Douglas box. Because early chaos—such as Mason Graham sliding past the Chargers and Giants—could push Graham into their lap, Noonan recommended building a draft portfolio that mixes the short O‑line price with smaller wagers on the longer defensive‑line number to capture either outcome while keeping overall exposure low.

Ryan Noonan recommended grabbing the –125 at DraftKings for the Jets’ first pick to be an offensive lineman, citing that 73 percent of mock drafts tracked by VR in the past week have New York going O‑line. He reasoned that Amarius Mims is the most common name, but even if Mims is gone, the Jets have multiple fallback options such as Kelvin Banks or Will Campbell. Noonan likes the positional prop because it removes the guesswork of identifying which specific lineman is highest on their board. As a long‑shot hedge, he mentioned Mason Graham—who completed a Top‑30 visit with New York and fits Joe Douglas’ culture priorities—at prices north of 8‑to‑1 in the exact‑player market, should the board break unexpectedly and push a blue‑chip defender down to them. Overall, he believes the –125 should be closer to –175 given the mock‑draft hit rate and the Jets’ desperate need to protect Aaron Rodgers.

Connor Allen advised fading the –150 consensus price on Ashton Gentie to the Raiders at No. 6 and instead sprinkling Amarius Mims at 10‑to‑1. While Gentie is the popular mock‑draft choice, Allen noted that new personnel chief John Spytek has historically broken ties toward premium positions—something Spytek reiterated in a quote tweeted by Albert Breer during the show. Las Vegas already has Maxx Crosby, Tyree Wilson, Malcolm Koonce and a solid front seven but a glaring hole on the right side of its offensive line. Mims can start immediately at right tackle or slide to guard, matching Pete Carroll’s trenches‑first M.O. Allen also argued the running‑back class is deep enough for the Raiders to address the position on Day 2, making a Round‑1 back a poor allocation of resources. Given the organizational philosophy and roster construction, he believes Mims at double‑digit odds is the clear value pivot if Gentie is merely market chalk.

Scott Smith said bettors should take the Over on Shedeur Sanders’ draft‑slot prop (listed at 10.5 at most shops) because the league is not grading him as a top‑10 talent. Smith’s contacts say no team currently slotted inside the first ten picks has Sanders on its internal top‑10 board. He pointed out that Atlanta, sitting in the early teens and short on total picks, is openly shopping its selection, creating a natural landing spot for a QB‑needy club to come up in the 14‑to‑17 range. Smith added that the Giants, Browns, or even Steelers could be the ones who leapfrog each other, but that move is expected to happen in the middle of the round, not the top. Because the draft appears light on trade partners, he projects fewer than five first‑round deals overall (the market is 3.5 with plus money to the Over), further reducing the odds Sanders sneaks inside the top ten.

Scott Smith told listeners that Penn State tight end Tyler Warren is “very much liked” inside the Saints building and would be his current betting favorite if New Orleans stays at pick 9 and passes on quarterback. Smith’s contacts say Warren checks the versatility box Pete Carmichael wants in a move‑tight end and would give Derek Carr an immediate red‑zone target. With Carolina at 8 widely mocked for edge Jalen Walker and open to trading down, Smith thinks a Bears one‑spot jump for RB Ashton Gentie could leave Warren sitting there for New Orleans. He called the 12‑to‑1 price on Warren in FanDuel’s ‘First Tight End Drafted’ or exact‑team market “too long given the inside buzz.”

Connor Allen said he “has a tough time putting anyone other than Mason Graham” in Jacksonville’s No. 5 slot. He cited new GM James Gladstone’s repeated public comments—six separate press appearances—about rebuilding the interior trenches and noted Gladstone’s Rams background, where L.A. aggressively traded up for defensive tackles such as Braden Fisk. Graham’s profile as an elite interior disrupter fits that blueprint. While Allen conceded another offensive lineman could be in play, he stressed that media mock‑draft consensus and Gladstone’s history point squarely to Graham, making the Michigan star a strong bet in ‘First Non‑QB Defender Selected’ and exact pick markets.

Ryan Noonan urged listeners to fade the –130 price on the Saints drafting a quarterback at pick 9 and instead ‘spray the board’ on alternative position props. He rattled off DraftKings and FanDuel numbers—edge +750, corner 9‑to‑1, offensive line +950, wide receiver 12‑to‑1, running back 12‑to‑1, and tight end Tyler Warren 12‑to‑1—arguing that local intel says New Orleans is far less quarterback‑hungry than the market believes. With five positions carrying plus‑money payouts, Noonan said bettors can build a near‑risk‑free portfolio by allocating stake proportionally across two or three of them, effectively arbitraging the inflated QB vig and locking in profit if the Saints go in any other direction.

Scott Smith reported that his New Orleans sources say the Saints are “not really interested” in Shedeur Sanders at No. 9 overall. Instead, the team is much more likely to trade back into the late first round and target Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart if they want a signal‑caller. Smith added that front‑office decision‑makers are eyeing edge rusher, offensive line, cornerback, or even running back (Ashton Jeanty) depending on how the board falls. He highlighted current betting lines that make the Saints –130 to select a quarterback, calling those odds mis‑priced given what he is hearing inside the building.

Scott Smith said he expects the New York Giants to select Abdul Carter with the third overall pick, not quarterback Shedeur Sanders. Smith’s local contacts indicate the Giants’ late flurry of quarterback meetings was more due‑diligence than genuine intent. He views Carter as one of only two true blue‑chip prospects on the board and argued the franchise cannot pass on that talent when they are unlikely to contend in 2025. Investing in an immediate defensive cornerstone also gives the current front office a better chance to keep its job than rolling the dice on a developmental quarterback while paying Jameis Winston and Russell Wilson veteran money. With group‑think now pushing QB steam in the betting market, Smith believes Carter’s odds to go No. 3 overall remain undervalued.