Brad Francis hammered Charlie Morton under 4.5 strikeouts at plus money. He labeled Morton ‘the worst starting pitcher in the league’ and can’t believe he’s still in the rotation. Despite facing a strikeout-prone White Sox squad, Morton’s recent velocity dip and command issues have kept him below five punch-outs in most outings. Francis wants to keep riding that trend, especially with Chicago’s bats waking up.

Brad Francis hammered Charlie Morton under 4.5 strikeouts at plus money. He labeled Morton ‘the worst starting pitcher in the league’ and can’t believe he’s still in the rotation. Despite facing a strikeout-prone White Sox squad, Morton’s recent velocity dip and command issues have kept him below five punch-outs in most outings. Francis wants to keep riding that trend, especially with Chicago’s bats waking up.

Scott Reichel labeled Chicago first-five minus ½ at a juicy +200 as his ‘dog of the show’. He trusts Jonathan Martin, who carries a 3.45 ERA and has yielded only five total runs over his last three starts, to win the early duel with Dean Kremer. Reichel pointed out that Kremer has been a mess all season—5.02 ERA overall, four or more earned runs in four of his past seven outings, and 7+ hits allowed in each of his last three. By grabbing the alt run line in the opening five frames, Scott avoids the White Sox’s shaky bullpen and maximizes a matchup where he feels Chicago’s starter is clearly superior. He thinks the +200 price should be closer to +150 given Martin’s consistency and Baltimore’s vulnerability early in games.

Lonte Smith is doubling down on Chicago for the second straight game, recommending plus 1.5 runs, first-five moneyline, and full-game moneyline. Martin has logged three consecutive quality starts and has surrendered two earned or fewer in four straight road outings. Kremer’s surface stats look respectable, but Smith stressed the underlying contact issues: 7+ hits allowed in each of his last three outings and four earned runs in four of his last seven. He expects the White Sox, who have been ‘frisky’ at the dish this week, to score early and force Baltimore’s leaky bullpen into higher-leverage frames. Smith aims to cash at least one of the alternate approaches and turn a profit on the series even if Chicago only steals a game.

Scott Reichel grabbed Chicago around +160, calling the number ‘massive’ given the pitching matchup. Erick Fedde-disciple Jonathan Martin brings a 3.45 ERA into Camden Yards and has yielded only five total runs over his last three starts. Baltimore counters with Dean Kremer, owner of a 5.02 ERA who has allowed four or more earned in four of his past seven outings and was tagged for four runs by Minnesota in his most recent home start. Reichel also prefers Chicago’s recently improved bullpen to the Orioles’ shaky relief corps. With the market over-rating Baltimore simply because of its lineup, Reichel sees clear value on the better current arm and will live with the underdog variance.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended betting the full-game over in Saturday’s White Sox–Orioles clash. He acknowledged the opener produced only three total runs but pointed out that seven of the last ten meetings have sailed over the number with one push. Both pitching staffs own season ERAs north of 4.00, suggesting plenty of traffic on the bases. Chicago games have gone over in five of their last ten outings, a stretch in which the Sox surrendered five-plus runs six different times. Baltimore mirrors that pattern, cashing six overs in its last ten while also yielding at least five runs per game in those contests. With shaky rotations, middle-of-the-pack bullpens, and weather warming at Camden Yards, he projected a return to the double-digit scoring norm between these clubs and labeled the over the best way to attack the matchup.

He recommended the Orioles moneyline. Baltimore has won eight of the last ten against Chicago and owns a 4-2 record at Camden Yards in that span. Dean Kremer has allowed only 10 runs across 30.1 May innings and boasts a 2.50 home ERA with opponents hitting just .206. Neither roster inspires confidence overall, but the Orioles are enjoying their best week of 2025 and catch the Sox during a lethargic road swing. Given Chicago’s 2-8 skid versus AL East teams and Kremer’s sharp home splits, Baltimore is the play.

Kenny G advised grabbing the White Sox at +162, arguing the line severely overrates Baltimore. Chicago starter Davis Martin has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in three straight and owns a 3.45 ERA, while Baltimore counters with Dean Kremer (5.02 ERA) and the league’s worst bullpen by ERA (5.37). Offensively, the Orioles remain bottom-five in both runs and OBP and mustered only two runs in Friday’s opener. Kenny admitted Chicago’s 4.51 bullpen ERA and 6-23 road record are concerns, but believes Baltimore’s pitching liabilities and punch-less lineup make the Sox a worthy underdog bet with a ‘very real chance’ to steal the game.

Guy Boston Sports recommended a first-five-innings play on the White Sox. Sean Burke is finally flashing the form he hyped in March, while Zach Eflin has been flat-out bad. Baltimore’s bats have perked up—five-plus runs in seven of their last ten—but Chicago’s lineup is also showing signs of life and can give Burke early support. Because the White Sox bullpen is a dumpster fire, he wants no part of the full game; instead he’ll take Chicago F5 at plus money and get out before the relievers can blow it. For totals players he leans full-game over (shaky pens on both sides) but would even consider an F5 under if you strictly trust the Burke vs. Eflin matchup.

Kenny G said the White Sox are worth a stab at +185 because nothing about Baltimore justifies a −225 price tag. He noted that 25-year-old Sean Burke has been "lights out" in four of his last five turns, including six strong innings of one-run ball against Texas. Meanwhile, Zach Eflin has cratered to a 5.40 ERA after being tattooed by both Boston and Washington in back-to-back outings. Baltimore’s bullpen (5.38 ERA, 25th) and offense (24th in runs, 25th in OBP, scoring only 4-4-5-2 runs lately) look nothing like last year’s juggernaut. Chicago’s pen is still shaky at 4.57, but Kenny pointed out the bats have quietly produced 9, 4, 1, 4, 10 runs over their past five and that Burke’s recent form gives them a real chance. He also cited trend lines: the Orioles are just 9-17 at Camden Yards and lead MLB to the OVER at home (16-8-2), yet he passed on the total because he distrusts both offenses. Bottom line: with Baltimore floundering and Eflin scuffling, Kenny thinks the value sits squarely on Chicago’s moneyline.

Eric Lindquist said to keep hammering the UNDER on Zach Eflin’s strike-out prop Friday on the South Side. Eflin’s whiff rate has cratered – he owns a 13.1 % K-rate in his last three outings and sits at just 19.6 % for 2024 after posting 26.5 % a year ago. He managed only one punch-out against Boston last week despite the Red Sox ranking top-10 in strike-outs. Lindquist will fire UNDER 3.5 Ks at even money or better, or UNDER 4.5 all the way to –145, noting that books even dangled a rogue 5.5 earlier in the week. He brushed off concerns about the White Sox lineup, saying the underlying swing-and-miss data simply is not there for Eflin right now.

Eric Pathi advised grabbing the Chicago White Sox at +185 in Baltimore, calling the price a classic value spot against an Orioles team that has burned bettors all season. Pathi pointed out that Baltimore sits dead-last in the AL East at 19-36 and has already cost a flat-$100 bettor $1,878 overall. Most of that damage has come when they are overpriced: the Orioles are just 9-19 as favorites and down $946 at Camden Yards. By contrast, the equally bad-record White Sox (18-38) have been far less toxic to bankrolls and have actually shown a small profit at home. Pathi’s thesis is simple—fade a habitually overvalued favorite and pocket nearly 2-to-1 on the underdog in what he sees as a coin-flip between two poor clubs.

Lonte Smith doubled down on his White Sox upset angle by targeting Miguel Vargas to go deep against Zach Eflin. Smith called Eflin "batting practice right now," noting the right-hander has been tagged for 17 earned runs and seven homers in his last three starts while carrying an 8.74 ERA at Camden Yards. Vargas, meanwhile, owns multi-hit efforts in three of his last six games and has left the yard in two of his past four, boosting his hard-hit rate to 46% since returning from Triple-A. With Baltimore’s bullpen lugging a 7.00 ERA the last two weeks and wind projecting straight out to left at 8 mph, Smith likes Vargas’ chances to clear the wall and recommends betting Over 0.5 home runs at anything +400 or better while using him as a cheap DFS one-off in tournaments.

Lonte Smith recommended going back to the well on Mike Tauchman’s walk prop, noting the leadoff man has coaxed a free pass in eight straight games and was priced at just –135 Thursday. Since returning from the IL, Tauchman owns a .458 OBP and 16.8% walk rate, sparking a White Sox lineup that has jumped from 29th to 18th in runs per game over the last two weeks. Facing an Orioles bullpen with a 7.00 ERA over its past 14 days, Lonte expects Baltimore to pitch him cautiously again, making another walk highly likely. He advised playing the Over 0.5 walks as long as the juice stays south of –150 and views Tauchman as a cheap DFS stack anchor in OBP formats.

Lonte Smith recommends a three-pack—White Sox +1.5, first-five ML, and full-game ML—plus the over. He noted Chicago has lost three of its last four by a single run and believes the market is over-penalizing them. Baltimore’s pen sports a 7.00+ ERA over the past two weeks, and starter Zach Eflin has been a gas can: 17 earned runs and seven homers in his last three outings, with an 8.74 home ERA for the year. Conversely, rookie Jared Burke’s 4.33 ERA is inflated by league-worst walk issues, but he’s allowed one run or fewer in four of five starts while keeping hits under five each time. With both clubs 6-4 to the over in their last ten and Mike Tauchman providing a spark atop Chicago’s lineup, Lonte envisions a 7-6 or 6-5 type shootout that keeps the Sox inside the number and offers plus-money upset equity.

LM Tipster grabbed Orioles moneyline because Zach Eflin (3-2, 5.40 ERA) finally looked healthy last start, punching out nine. Chicago owns MLB’s worst record (18-37) and ranks 29th in OPS vs righties. Sam Burke’s 11% walk rate puts extra runners on for Baltimore’s league-leading stolen-base attack.

LM Tipster took Gunnar Henderson over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Henderson boasts a .400 OBP over the last two weeks and faces Sam Burke’s 91-mph fastball he crushes at a .600 xwOBA. With Henderson entrenched in the leadoff spot and the Orioles projected for 5.2 runs, LM forecasts multiple opportunities to clear the combo line.

Greg Peterson played Under 9 runs, citing that the White Sox average only 3.1 runs per game on the road (second-fewest in the AL) while the Orioles sit 24th in scoring at just 3.9 per game. Peterson added that rookie right-hander Sean Burke has allowed one run or fewer in four of his last five outings and carries a modest 4.33 ERA, which he believes is serviceable against two slumping lineups. His own model made the total 8.4, giving more than a half-run of cushion to the Under ticket.