Malcom Bamford skipped the money line and went straight to a Boston team-total play (5+ runs). He pointed out Martinez re-entered the rotation only because of injuries and has produced a 1-5 record with a 1.48 WHIP as a starter. Cincinnati’s bullpen is running on fumes after covering nearly nine innings Tuesday and ranks 27th in FIP for the season. Boston averages 5.1 runs per game at Fenway and just hung 13 on the same staff. With muggy weather expected to boost carry, Bamford expects the middle of the order to feast again once Martinez is chased.

Rockford bet the Red Sox –125, pricing them –135. He trusts Brayan Bello over Nick Martinez, noting Bello’s 54% ground-ball rate plays well at Fenway and Cincinnati’s lineup owns just an 89 wRC+ against right-handers on the road. The Reds bullpen is worn down (bottom-10 ERA overall and threw 8.2 innings Tuesday after Chase Burns recorded one out). Boston’s offense appears awake, tallying 31 runs in its last three, and ranks sixth in hard-hit rate at home. Dylan believes Martinez’s 4.82 ERA as a starter and Cincinnati’s shaky pen make the short number too cheap.

His first official wager was UNDER 8 (–130) at Fenway, trusting rookie Chase Burns’ 97 mph sinker/slider mix after an 81-pitch, 5-IP debut at Yankee Stadium and banking on Garrett Crochet’s continued dominance (2.04 FIP, 31 % K-rate over his last five). Mark expects both clubs to be cautious with pitch counts—Boston because Crochet is nearing a career-high workload and Cincinnati because Burns is fresh from Double-A. With a 7 mph in-blowing breeze and both bullpens ranking top-10 in xFIP over the last two weeks, he projects no more than six or seven total runs.

Just A Bet Outside flagged Garrett Crochet’s under 1.5 earned runs at +115 as his favorite lean. Cincinnati has been abysmal versus lefties, posting a 79 wRC+ (23rd) and .234 average (21st) over the last three weeks. The Reds have scored two or fewer earned runs off each of the last five southpaws they faced—including aces Max Fried and Carlos Rodon—and none of those pitchers boast Crochet’s current form. The Red Sox lefty has held opponents below two earned runs in 11 of 17 starts and in five of seven at Fenway, with the lone blow-up fueled by five uncharacteristic walks. As long as Crochet commands the zone, the host expects six strong innings against a lineup that has never seen him.

Just A Bet Outside said Chase Burns is worth an over bet on his strikeout prop in Fenway. The rookie fanned the first five hitters he ever faced and finished his MLB debut with 8 Ks on 81 pitches against the Yankees. Across four minor-league seasons he carried an eye-popping 89 strikeouts in 66 innings with only 13 walks, reinforcing that the whiffs are real. Boston has the fourth-highest strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching over the past three weeks (25.7%), so the host expects plenty of swing-and-miss opportunities even in a tough park. The tout acknowledged small-sample risk—this is only start No. 2—but believes the matchup, Burns’s pitch count, and his lifelong bat-missing profile justify an aggressive stance on the K ladder.

Matt Perrault backed the Red Sox on the run line behind Garrett Crochet, calling it “Crochet Day” and predicting Boston wins comfortably. He cited Crochet’s Cy-Young-caliber form—2.06 ERA overall, 2.13 ERA at Fenway, and at least seven strikeouts in each of his last four starts (10-8-7-9-12 in June). Crochet nearly went the distance versus New York last outing and has dominated both home and road slates. Perrault expects him to carve up a Reds lineup that is among the league leaders in K-rate. On the other side, rookie right-hander Chase Burns makes only his second MLB start and now has to navigate Fenway’s quirks; Burns struck out five in a row against the Yankees but still allowed three earned on six hits across five innings. Perrault believes Boston’s veterans—Rafael Devers, Trevor Story and the recently hot Ceddanne Rafaela—will punish any mistakes while Crochet suppresses Cincinnati’s offense, making the Sox a strong play to win by multiple runs.

Reichel tagged the Reds moneyline at roughly +160 as his underdog of the day. He acknowledged Garrett Crochet’s stellar form but argued Boston has no business laying –190 when its offense "cannot hit to save their lives" and its bullpen remains a dumpster fire. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has quietly taken recent series from the Padres and Yankees and is playing with confidence. Reichel believes that if Crochet exits early—something he expects given Crochet’s workload management—the game shifts to a lopsided relief matchup the Reds can steal late. With Boston floundering at the plate and overpriced, he sees solid value backing Cincinnati at plus money.

Scott Reichel played the under 8 in Reds–Red Sox, leaning on Garrett Crochet’s red-hot form and two weak lineups. Crochet has yielded just two earned runs across his last 22⅓ innings while piling up 25 strikeouts against four walks. Boston’s bats remain ice-cold, and Cincinnati owns a .218 average against left-handed pitching. Reichel added that rookie Chase Burns fanned the first five hitters in his debut and should miss bats again despite making his first road start. With both clubs scuffling offensively and Crochet working deep, Reichel projected a 4-2 type game and would play the total down to 7½.

Chris Ruffolo recommended taking the Cincinnati Reds on the +1.5 run line and sprinkling the moneyline against Boston on June 30, 2025. He cited several edges: Boston’s lineup has cratered versus right-handed pitching over the last two weeks (.201 AVG – 3rd worst in MLB, bottom-5 OPS, bottom-10 ISO, .241 BABIP – 2nd worst, 25.1% strikeout rate – top-5). Rookie right-hander Chase Burns, whose fastball routinely touches triple digits, just struck out eight Yankees over five solid innings in his debut (3 ER, 6 H). Conversely, Boston has dropped seven of its last eight and is only 3-7 in the last ten, while starter Garrett Crochet has been shakier at Fenway than on the road. Ruffolo thinks that price disparity makes the Red Sox overvalued and the safer play is grabbing the extra run with Cincinnati, plus a small moneyline stab for upside.

Razzle likes the plus-money over on Chase Burns’ 5.5 strike-out prop and is comfortable pairing him with Crochet in the same DFS lineup. Burns fanned the first five Yankees he faced in his debut and finished with a 34 % CSW. With Boston missing Rafael Devers and posting a middling 23 % K-rate versus righties this month, Razzle sees room for six to eight punch-outs at a bargain $6.3K salary.

Razzle called Garrett Crochet his favorite arm tonight. The left-hander owns elite swing-and-miss stuff and faces a Reds lineup that has hemorrhaged fantasy points to southpaws in Great American Ball Park. Despite Crochet’s odd home/road K-split (lower K-rate in Fenway), Razzle is locking him in because DraftKings hung an unprecedented 8.5 strike-out prop—evidence that books expect double-digit Ks. He plans to anchor GPP builds around Crochet’s ceiling.