B Wade said he is betting Brandon Pfaadt to allow more than 2.5 earned runs. The handicap leans almost entirely on how bad Pfaadt has been outside of Chase Field: 7 of 9 road starts this season have cleared three earned runs and he is surrendering 3.6 ER per road outing. Overall, 10 of 18 total appearances have gone over this number. Wade brushed off last year’s 2-2 split versus the unnamed opponent, calling it too distant to matter, and pointed to recent beat-downs by Colorado, Atlanta, St. Louis, Washington and San Francisco as evidence that even mediocre lineups can get to the right-hander when he is away from home.

Lonte Smith echoed Bamford and grabbed Astros –1.5 at plus money, calling it ‘a gift.’ Brown has surrendered two or fewer in seven straight and boasts a 1.82 ERA, while Cleveland’s offense is in free-fall—hitting below .180 and scoring just 1.5 runs on five hits per game over the past ten. Cantillo rarely works past the third inning, meaning a taxed Guardians bullpen will be exposed early. Houston has won eight of the last ten head-to-head meetings and just dismantled the Dodgers without Jeremy Pena or Yordan Alvarez. Smith noted that the Astros have covered the run line in six of their last eight and predicted that trend continues versus an anemic Cleveland lineup averaging 3.1 runs during its 10-game skid.

Malcom Bamford advised taking Houston –1.5 at plus money against a Guardians club mired in a 10-game losing streak. Joey Cantillo will serve as a three-inning opener, but Cleveland has dropped seven of his last eight appearances and ranks bottom-five in runs allowed. Meanwhile Hunter Brown owns a 1.82 ERA and has limited opponents to three total earned runs over his last six home starts. Houston just hung 29 runs on the Dodgers and owns the second-fewest runs allowed in MLB (325), positioning them for a dominant win. With Cleveland averaging just 3.1 runs per game during the skid—and topping two runs only twice—the Astros’ run line felt like the ‘safer bet’ to Bamford than a Guardians team-total under.

Ron Pick Dawgz advised laying both the money-line and run-line with Houston. He called Cleveland "the worst offense in baseball" and likes the spot for Hunter Brown, who enters off several sharp outings and now faces a Guardians lineup that ranks dead last in most major categories versus right-handed pitching. On the flip side, Joey Cantillo has been serviceable, but Ron emphasized that the Astros own one of MLB’s best splits against lefties, making Minute Maid (he referred to it as Diken Park) a tough ask for the rookie. Ron projected a low-scoring but clearly one-sided result in Houston’s favor and labeled the Astros the bettable side.

Mark paired the Astros moneyline with the Blue Jays moneyline for a two-leg parlay paying +131. The Houston leg hinges on Hunter Brown, whom he expects to “mow” through a Guardians lineup that ranks only 13th in strikeout rate the last seven days but rarely barrels the ball. Brown enters 9-3 with a 1.82 ERA, gets an extra day of rest after being scratched Monday, and faces rookie Carlos Carrasco’s replacement Xzavion Curry (3.41 ERA). Mark doubts Cleveland wins back-to-back games after an outlier seven-run outburst and prefers the safer moneyline to a +110 run line, folding Houston into the parlay to juice the return.

Eric Lindquist recommended betting Hunter Brown’s earned-runs under, preferring the plus-money 1.5 alt line but still comfortable up to –120. Brown owns a 2.74 xwOBA and a 32.1 % strikeout rate that Lindquist likened to “prime DeGrom.” Cleveland’s offense grades out poorly against right-handed pitching (91 wRC+; 21.7 % K-rate) and has been more exploitable by southpaws all season. With the Guardians likely piecing together a bullpen game on the other side, Lindquist expects Dusty Baker to let Brown work deep enough for six dominant frames, projecting zero or one earned run. He views the standard 2.5 line as a strong parlay anchor but is aggressively chasing the 1.5 under for standalone action.

The tout locked in the Astros moneyline, pointing to two teams headed opposite directions. Houston has won 11 of 13, owns MLB’s best batting average and is raking .345 in July. Cleveland has dropped 10 straight and 13 of 16, scoring two runs or fewer in eight of those losses. Starting pitching is night and day: Hunter Brown is 17-0 in team starts with a 1.82 ERA (1.01 ERA, .144 BAA at Minute Maid), while Tanner Bibee’s road ERA is 5.40 and the Guardians have lost six of his last seven outings. Given Houston’s form and Brown’s dominance, the tout labeled the Astros an “only” side.

Matt Perrault said the Astros at 10-1 to win the World Series are the best futures ticket on the board right now. His case: Houston owns the easiest remaining schedule in MLB on paper, is about to get Yordan Alvarez back healthy, already has a legitimate 1-2 punch atop the rotation, and sports the league’s best record against teams above .500. They are also the best home club in baseball and just swept the Dodgers in Los Angeles, a result that convinced Perrault the roster is championship-caliber. With the price still hanging at 10-1 (FanDuel has already trimmed it to 4-1 to win the AL), he plans to stake one unit now and hedge later if the Astros simply reach the Fall Classic.

Brad Pick Dawgz labeled the Guardians-Astros ‘No Runs First Inning’ his favorite play of the slate. He called both clubs "under machines": Cleveland has been highly profitable to the under on the road, while Houston cashes unders at home. Expecting another low-scoring affair, Brad believes the first frame stays quiet and is betting the Nerfie accordingly.

Brad Pick Dawgz laid the -160 with Houston because the two clubs are, in his words, "headed in different directions." Cleveland has dropped 10 straight, and Brad emphasized that the Guardians "can't hit a beach ball right now," making them a cash-cow fade during this skid. Houston, meanwhile, is trending upward, so he is comfortable paying a steeper money-line price he rarely touches, convinced that the Guardians’ offensive funk makes the Astros a strong favorite play.

Jay Yang bet the Cleveland Guardians moneyline at roughly +160, insisting the current 10-game losing streak is noise, not signal. His confidence hangs on three pillars. First, Tanner Bibee just stifled this exact Houston lineup—6.1 IP, 6 K, one earned run—in late June and owns a 2.83 ERA over his last 35 innings. Second, the Guardians’ offense has routinely perked up in Bibee’s starts, and Yang expects a classic Cleveland small-ball approach to scrape across a couple runs off Hunter Brown. Brown was June’s AL Pitcher of the Month, but Yang believes the matchup tilts toward Bibee because the Astros struggle versus heavy fastball/slider mixes. Third, Cleveland’s bullpen still grades as a top-5 unit by xFIP, giving Yang confidence they can slam the door if Bibee delivers six to seven quality frames. Historical losing streaks do not deter him—Cleveland lost 12 straight in 1931 and 11 straight in 2012, but Yang contends his game script (early contact hitting, manufacturing two runs, handing a lead to the pen) plays no matter what the streak count says. He labeled the Guardians a live dog and an outright upset pick, advising bettors to list both starting pitchers before firing.

Eric Pathi advised betting the Cleveland Guardians moneyline at roughly +140 in Monday's opener at Houston, invoking what he calls the "rule of 10." Pathi emphasized that it is historically difficult for any MLB club to push a winning or losing streak past the ten-game mark, so after Cleveland dropped its tenth straight he expects natural mean reversion. He framed it as a contrarian value spot: most bettors will reflexively fade a team on a double-digit skid, creating an inflated price. With the Guardians beginning a fresh series and getting plus money, Pathi labeled it a complimentary system play worth riding.

Rockford is sticking with Houston –1.5 at +140 even after learning that rookie Gordon—not Hunter Brown—will start Monday. He does not view the pitching change as a downgrade big enough to scare him off because the bet is mostly a fade of Cleveland. The Guardians have dropped ten straight, average just 3.4 runs per road game, and own a bottom-five bullpen over the past month. Meanwhile the Astros lineup is firing on all cylinders coming off a momentum-building sweep of the Dodgers. Rockford expects Houston’s offense to give Gordon an early cushion and trusts a rested high-leverage relief corps to slam the door in a 6-2 or 7-3 type of victory.

Scott Reichel snapped up Astros –1.5 at +140 behind Hunter Brown, who has not allowed more than two earned runs in seven straight home starts. Cleveland is riding a ten-game losing streak, owns a bottom-five bullpen over the past month, and scores just 3.4 runs per game away from Progressive Field. Reichel added that Tanner Bibee’s road ERA is nearly a full run higher than at home, giving Houston a starting-pitching edge on top of its lineup firepower. He thinks the Guardians could easily get blanked again, projecting a 6-1 type of blowout.