Josh Inglis laid out why he is betting Over 5.5 hits allowed for German Marquez. With yesterday’s rainout the Rockies and Royals are playing a double-header, and Inglis expects Bud Black to let Marquez soak up innings to spare a bullpen he called “the worst in baseball.” Marquez needed only two outs in his last start to give up six knocks, and the long reliever behind him was just recalled from Triple-A after surrendering five runs in seven innings. Kauffman Stadium’s big outfield plus a likely 90-plus pitch workload against a contact-oriented Royals lineup give Inglis confidence Marquez eclipses the hit prop. He even mentioned liking Kansas City’s team total Over 4.5 as a corollary play.

Kansas City is a chunky ‑235 favorite but the model still grades them as value, projecting a 5-3 win with the under 8 runs. Lefty Cole Ragans (1-1, 3.58 ERA, 28.5% K-rate) draws a dream matchup against German Marquez, who has been shelled for an 8.27 ERA and a .328 opponent AVG through three starts. Colorado owns a league-worst 4-18 record and an anemic 70 wRC+ on the road, allowing the projection to fade the Rockies even in pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium, where run suppression pushes the total under.

Peterson grabbed Game One Under 8 with his model spitting out 7.2. Cole Ragans owns a sparkling 1.80 FIP, 13.7 K/9 and has allowed only two homers in five starts, indicating his 3.58 ERA is fluky high. That frontline work meets two punch-less lineups: the Royals were dead last in scoring (under 3.0 runs per game) and the Rockies were last on the road (2.0 per game). With both clubs unable to hit and Ragans in elite form, Peterson expects runs to be precious at Kauffman.

Ceraulo took Cole Ragans –120 to earn the W in Game 1 of the double-header versus Colorado. Ragans owns a 1.14 ERA in three April starts at Kauffman Stadium and has punched out double-digit batters in each. Facing German Marquez (8.97 ERA) and a Rockies lineup that ranks 29th in road OPS, Ceraulo figures two early KC runs could be enough for the lefty to qualify and cash the prop.

Calling it his “massive lock of the day,” Kenny G endorsed Kansas City at –275 despite the steep price. Rookie Chase Dallander (7.36 ERA, eight homers allowed in three starts) represents a dream matchup for a Royals lineup he expects to positively regress from bottom-two ranks in slugging, batting average and runs. Cole Ragans counters with a 3.58 ERA and three excellent starts against Milwaukee, Minnesota and Cleveland before a stumble in Detroit; Kenny highlighted his 8-strikeout, 3-walk effort as evidence the stuff is intact. Supporting pieces favor K.C. as well: a serviceable 3.79 bullpen ERA versus Colorado’s 4.23, a 7-4 home record, and a Rockies squad that is 1-12 on the road and 29th in runs. Kenny warned bettors to monitor potential rain-delay double-header shuffles but stated that, if the confirmed starters hold, it is “very unlikely” Kansas City loses. He is staying off the 8.5-run total, believing the Royals could explode offensively, and recommends the moneyline either as a straight bet or as a parlay anchor.

During a quick wrap-up, Kyle Purviance said his first click once markets open will be Cole Ragans 8+ strikeouts against Colorado, plus a Royals double-result. While waiting for books to post a number, he noted that any reasonable plus-money on the 8-K ladder is in play because Ragans’ whiff-heavy slider and change circle perfectly against a Rockies lineup that ranks bottom-three in chase rate and hard-hit suppression. Purviance expects Kansas City to control the game wire-to-wire, making the double-result a correlated bet with the strikeout ladder.

Eric Lindquist recommended the full-game Under 8.5 runs at ‑115 in Rockies–Royals. He noted that Colorado first-rounder Chase Dollander owns a terrifying 7.80 expected ERA and has already surrendered seven homers on a 9.80 expected slugging against his 97.5 mph fastball, but expects immediate regression now that he’s away from Coors Field and learning to sequence rather than simply overpower hitters. On the other side, Cole Ragans is "quite good" and should limit an anemic Rockies lineup that does "jack diddly douche" once it leaves altitude. With two strikeout-minded starters, cool Midwest weather, and weak Colorado bats, Lindquist believes run-scoring opportunities will be scarce and the juice is worth paying on the under.

Guy Boston recommended attacking a Colorado team‑total under (preferably U3.5 full‑game or U1.5 in the first five) rather than trusting the volatile Royals offense. His case centers on Michael Lorenzen’s ground‑ball skill set and the Rockies’ complete inability to handle it. Lorenzen flashes six different pitches but never a splitter—the only offering Colorado ranks top‑10 against by run value. On the road the Rockies have cashed the F5 team‑total UNDER in 8 of 10 games, scoring zero first‑five runs in every contest outside their Dodger Stadium outburst. Boston pointed to Colorado’s league‑worst .259 wOBA and 56 % ground‑ball rate away from Coors as further proof the matchup tilts toward anemic production. Betting an under on the Rockies lineup lets you ‘half‑back’ Kansas City without needing its inconsistent bats to carry the wager.

Guy Boston recommended attacking a Colorado team‑total under (preferably U3.5 full‑game or U1.5 in the first five) rather than trusting the volatile Royals offense. His case centers on Michael Lorenzen’s ground‑ball skill set and the Rockies’ complete inability to handle it. Lorenzen flashes six different pitches but never a splitter—the only offering Colorado ranks top‑10 against by run value. On the road the Rockies have cashed the F5 team‑total UNDER in 8 of 10 games, scoring zero first‑five runs in every contest outside their Dodger Stadium outburst. Boston pointed to Colorado’s league‑worst .259 wOBA and 56 % ground‑ball rate away from Coors as further proof the matchup tilts toward anemic production. Betting an under on the Rockies lineup lets you ‘half‑back’ Kansas City without needing its inconsistent bats to carry the wager.

Guy Boston recommended attacking a Colorado team‑total under (preferably U3.5 full‑game or U1.5 in the first five) rather than trusting the volatile Royals offense. His case centers on Michael Lorenzen’s ground‑ball skill set and the Rockies’ complete inability to handle it. Lorenzen flashes six different pitches but never a splitter—the only offering Colorado ranks top‑10 against by run value. On the road the Rockies have cashed the F5 team‑total UNDER in 8 of 10 games, scoring zero first‑five runs in every contest outside their Dodger Stadium outburst. Boston pointed to Colorado’s league‑worst .259 wOBA and 56 % ground‑ball rate away from Coors as further proof the matchup tilts toward anemic production. Betting an under on the Rockies lineup lets you ‘half‑back’ Kansas City without needing its inconsistent bats to carry the wager.

The handicapper chose the OVER because both starters are scuffling—Marquez at 8.27 ERA, Lorenzen at 4.57. Colorado games against AL Central foes have gone over in 13 of the last 20, and Kansas City’s pen has been unreliable behind the unreliable rotation. With two vulnerable arms and weak relief units, runs could come early and often despite Kauffman’s pitcher‑friendly dimensions.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended Kansas City’s money line, pointing to Colorado’s 4‑17 record and a pitching staff that ranks last in WHIP and opponent batting average. German Marquez owns an 8.27 ERA, a 1.84 WHIP, and has yielded 15 earned runs over his last 10.2 innings, including a two‑thirds‑of‑an‑inning disaster against Los Angeles. Michael Lorenzen has a 2.45 ERA at Kauffman Stadium and should be able to tame a Rockies offense that produces even fewer runs on the road. If the Royals jump on Marquez early, the tout expects them to cruise.

Beermakersfan tabbed Chris Bubic as his favorite SP, noting that the lefty already owns two 8‑strikeout outings in four starts (nearly 7 K per start). Colorado is the perfect opponent to spike a ceiling; only Minnesota is striking out more vs LHP, and the projected Rockies lineup features six hitters above a 33 % K‑rate (several north of 40 %). With Kansas City favored and pitching weather neutral, Bubic offers a sturdy strikeout floor plus realistic double‑digit K upside at a mid‑range salary, making him a core play in both cash games and GPPs.

Kyle Purviance wants bettors to hit Michael Lorenzen’s strikeout prop as soon as books open. He expects the standard line to sit at 4.5 – the same number the market hung in every Lorenzen start this season – and projects at least five punch‑outs against a Rockies lineup that ranks bottom‑three in K‑rate versus right‑handed pitching. Purviance pointed out that Lorenzen fanned seven Brewers when he last faced a free‑swinging club and believes his modest 17.7 % season K‑rate masks strikeout upside that surfaces in plus match‑ups. He plans to ladder the bet by taking the alt 5+ strikeouts at plus money and will consider a 6+ escalator if the payoff is rich enough. Brian Howard cautioned that recent starts produced only 3–4 Ks, but Purviance countered that those came against contact‑oriented offenses (Twins, Guardians, Tigers). He labeled tomorrow’s Rockies spot “the time to fire.”

Peterson laid the -1.5 run line with Kansas City at +115, grading it -112. He emphasized Colorado’s league‑worst 1.9 road runs per game and .188 batting average away from Coors. Germán Márquez has compounded the problem, compiling an 8.27 ERA with 6.1 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9. Michael Lorenzen, meanwhile, has tightened his control (2.9 BB/9 versus 4.1 last season) and pairs a 4.57 ERA with a healthier 3.64 FIP. Against a dead‑bat Rockies lineup, Peterson projects the Royals to win by multiple runs more often than the market implies.

Kenny G’s favorite angle in Rockies‑Royals is the full‑game Under 8.5. He noted both offenses are anemic—Colorado sits 27th in runs and 26th in batting average, while Kansas City is dead last in slugging and 29th in runs with only two team homers. Ryan Feltner owns a 2‑earned‑run ceiling in three of four starts and Chris Bubic has a sparkling 1.88 ERA, so Kenny expects competent work from both starters. The Royals bullpen has been a pleasant surprise (3.63 ERA) and even Colorado’s shaky pen has managed a 4.16 mark that Kenny thinks is serviceable against KC’s punch‑less bats. Unders are cashing at a torrid clip for both clubs—Rockies 13‑7‑2, Royals 14‑8‑2—and each is playing extreme home/road travel unders (Colorado 1‑11 road record, Royals 6‑4 home). Given cold April temperatures at Kauffman and two teams ranked bottom‑three in power, he believes runs will be scarce.

Eric Lindquist bet Under 8.5 (–102) in Rockies–Royals, citing both matchup data and park factors. He praised Chris Bubich’s 36.9 % hard‑hit rate, .369 xSLG and 26.2 % strikeout rate, pointing out his efficiency improvements despite a small dip in velocity. On the other side, Ryan Feltner is Lindquist’s preferred Colorado arm, capable of limiting damage against a right‑heavy Kansas City order. Offensively, Colorado has been dreadful away from Coors, striking out 31.4 % of the time versus left‑handed pitching with a 67 wRC+, the league’s fifth‑worst mark. With two quietly competent starters and the road Rockies bringing minimal thump, Lindquist expects a low‑scoring contest and passed on run lines in favor of the total.

Brian Howard targeted Kris Bubic’s alternate strikeout ladders against Colorado, taking 8+ Ks at +115 and a sprinkle on 9+ at +225. He highlighted the Rockies’ league‑worst 31.7% strike‑out rate on the road and their futility versus four‑seam/changeup pitchers—the exact mix Bubic uses 75% of the time. Savant data shows eight of nine projected Colorado starters carry a whiff rate over 25% against four‑seamers, and five eclipse 30% versus changeups. Bubic has already reached eight punch‑outs twice this month (Milwaukee and Baltimore) and owns a career‑best 14.5% swinging‑strike rate, so Howard believes the ceiling is worth chasing even if the standard 5.5 line is juiced to –170.

The tout also advocated the under, citing two cold lineups and respectable starting pitching. Colorado averages 3.24 runs per game overall and has scored only 12 total in six road contests, being shut out three times. Kansas City musters 2.91 runs per game and bats .204 versus right‑handers. Recent trends support the lean: the Rockies are 7‑3 to the under in their last ten, while the Royals are 6‑3‑1. With Feltner’s road struggles balanced by Bubic’s tidy home work and both bullpens limiting damage lately, a low‑scoring affair is the safer play.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid out why Kansas City is the side. Colorado is 1‑11 away from Coors and carries a 10‑game road losing skid. Ryan Feltner has surrendered 11 runs through four starts, seven coming in his two away games, and the Rockies bullpen owns brutal road splits. Offensively they hit just .215 versus lefties outside Denver. Chris Bubic has yielded seven runs in four outings and only one in his sole home start, giving the Royals a clear mound edge. KC is 4‑1 in its last five at Kaufman and should exploit Colorado’s travel woes to open the series with a win.

Peterson took Royals -1.5 at +100 (he made it -113) and Under 8.5 (projects 7.7). Kansas City ranks dead last in runs per game (2.9), but Colorado’s road offense is even worse (1.9 runs, .188 AVG). Kris Bubic’s early surge—1.88 ERA and 10.1 K/9 through four starts—faces Ryan Feltner’s pedestrian 4.82 ERA/4.91 FIP. With two punch‑less lineups and Bubic looking sharp, Peterson expects a comfy Royals win in a tight, low‑run affair.

Malcolm Bamford preferred Kansas City −1.5, projecting a rare get‑right spot for an offense that just snapped a seven‑game skid. Kris Bubic has been one of only two bright spots alongside Cole Ragans, sporting a 2.57 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Ryan Feltner, meanwhile, was yanked after eight outs versus the Dodgers and now owns a 7.94 road ERA. Colorado is 1‑11 away from Coors and has lost eight of those 11 by multiple runs. Bamford trusts Bubic to work deep, then turn things over to a bullpen that ranks 8th in ERA, while Feltner’s road woes create early separation. Given the Rockies’ league‑worst −62 run differential, he is comfortable laying the lumber on the run line instead of swallowing −208 on the moneyline.

Reichel’s favorite angle in Rockies–Royals is the under 8.5. He noted Kansas City has scored fewer than four runs in regulation in 12 of its last 13 games, while Colorado is 1‑11 on the road and owns the league’s second‑worst wRC+. Ryan Feltner’s 5.2 road ERA is ugly, but Kris Bubic and the Royals’ pen should limit the Rockies’ punchless order. Conversely, KC’s bats revolve almost exclusively around Bobby Witt Jr.; the bottom half (Isbel, Waters, Massey) provides little threat. With both lineups struggling mightily and evening temps projected in the low‑60s at Kauffman, Reichel sees no path to nine runs unless there is bullpen carnage—something he is willing to fade given each club’s recent inability to hit.