Burke called Dontayvion Wicks his favorite 12/1 dart for first TD. With Jayden Reed sidelined by a broken collarbone and Tucker Kraft questionable, Wicks suddenly becomes Jordan Love’s healthiest, most familiar red-zone target. Last season Wicks led all Packers wideouts with 13 red-zone looks, converting 10 of them into catches and four into touchdowns. Burke doubts Love has real chemistry yet with rookie Matthew Golden, making Wicks the clear next-man-up against a Browns defense likely to be on the field early and often.

Adam Burke said Josh Jacobs is worth a +220 stab in the first-touchdown market because the numbers scream opportunity. Jacobs enters Week 3 leading the entire league in red-zone carries and owns 42 of Green Bay’s 55 rushing attempts—an every-down role that dwarfs the 13 combined carries for all other Packers, including only six QB keepers from Jordan Love. Burke added that Cleveland’s offense looked "hopeless" last week, increasing the likelihood Green Bay scores first and giving Jacobs multiple bites at the apple inside the 20. A knee injury to TE Tucker Kraft shortened the price, but it also funnels even more red-zone work toward the power back.

Everett laid the 8.5 with Green Bay, arguing that Cleveland’s elite pass rush led by Myles Garrett cannot mask an offense floundering under Joe Flacco. He expects Micah Parsons and the Packers front—fresh off bullying Jared Goff and Jayden Daniels—to create short fields that Jordan Love converts into points. Because the Browns have scored just 26 total points through two weeks, Everett projects a comfortable Packers cover despite Cleveland’s defensive talent.

Brent Sobleski laid the 8.5 with Green Bay, citing a trench mismatch the Browns can’t hide. Cleveland enters with right tackle Jack Conklin still battling an elbow issue and rookie LT Dawand Jones wildly inconsistent, all while immobile 40-year-old Joe Flacco stands in the pocket. Sobleski expects Micah Parsons and Rashan Gary to tee off, arguing Green Bay’s defense is ‘ferocious’ and has yet to allow 19 points in a game. Because the Browns offense hasn’t topped 17 in either contest, he predicts the Packers create multiple negative plays, flip field position and coast to another statement win that “amps the Super Bowl buzz.”

Janvrin laid the eight with Green Bay, citing a brutal matchup for Joe Flacco. The Browns quarterback went just 3-for-15 for 30 yards with one TD, one INT and two near-picks when pressured in Week 2. Now he sees a Packers front featuring Micah Parsons, Rashan Gary and Devonte Wyatt. On the other side, the Browns play more man coverage than any team; Jordan Love is already 15-of-25 for 176 yards and four touchdowns against man this season. Janvrin expects those two trends to intersect in a blowout at Lambeau.

Iain MacMillan recommended laying the 8.5 points with Green Bay at -112 on DraftKings. He argued the Packers have been the league's most efficient team through two weeks, leading the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +2.4 and ranking 5th in both overall EPA and defensive opponent EPA despite opening against Detroit and Washington. Facing an 0-2 Cleveland squad that has dropped eight straight overall and is 1-7 ATS in its last eight, MacMillan expects a blowout. He pointed to the Browns' sputtering offense under Joe Flacco, 29th in the EPA+CPOE composite, saying they lack the firepower to keep pace with Jordan Love's unit that owns an average scoring margin of +11.5. Historical trends also favor Green Bay: 7-3 ATS in the last ten overall, 6-0 ATS in Week 3, and 6-1 straight up in the last seven head to head meetings. With the Packers stepping down in class and the Browns dealing with several key injuries, MacMillan felt comfortable backing the road favorite.

Calling Green Bay one of the year’s biggest surprises, Cluff projected a 31-16 road win. He credited Micah Parsons and the rest of the Packers’ front for a looming shutdown of Cleveland’s offense, implying bettors should lean to Green Bay and the Under given the expected defensive dominance.

Mark Giannotto highlighted Sports Illustrated’s wager that Green Bay is a smash spot at -8. He pointed to the Packers leading the NFL in net yards per play (+2.4) despite opening with Detroit and Washington—both top-10 DVOA defenses—while the Browns limp in with Joe Flacco directing an offense ranked 30th in EPA per drive. Giannotto noted that Cleveland’s passing attack has generated only 4.9 yards per attempt and that Kevin Stefanski’s unit has failed to top 17 points in either contest. Facing its first weak opponent of the year, Green Bay’s balanced offense and swarming pass rush are projected to turn this into a blow-out cover.

The Packers have been bet from ‑5.5 to ‑9.0 after two dominant defensive outings, but Rathburn cautioned that the move prices in a best-case narrative. Cleveland might kick the tires on rookie Dillon Gabriel at quarterback, yet he still projects a relatively low-scoring 24-16 Packers win—an eight-point margin that would cash Browns +9. He stressed that laying nine in a road game falls outside all single-digit key numbers (3, 6, 7) and creates a classic ‘back-door’ scenario for the home dog, especially with Green Bay’s offense content to sit on a lead behind its defense.

Ross Kelly reported that the SportsLine model made Green Bay -8.5 one of its strongest Week 3 bets. After 10,000 simulations, the model shows the Packers covering in more than 60% of outcomes and winning by roughly 14 points. Supporting data include a rest advantage from playing last Thursday, a 2-0 ATS record this season, and a 7-1 ATS run in Jordan Love’s last eight full starts. Conversely, Cleveland is 5-14 ATS since the start of 2024, holds the NFL’s worst turnover differential (-4), and ranks bottom-eight in both scoring offense and defense. Those trends led the model—and Kelly—to lay the points with Green Bay.