Dylan Rockford said bettors should grab the Astros moneyline at anything shorter than -150 behind Hunter Brown. Rockford highlighted Brown's 1.43 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over his last three starts, including eight scoreless innings and nine strikeouts in a duel with Jacob deGrom. He contrasted that with Taj Bradley's volatility, noting Bradley was tagged for five earned at Miami and sits at a 4.97 season ERA. Rockford also pointed to Tampa Bay's 11-18 home record and Houston's top-10 wRC+ lineup as further edges. With the clear starting-pitching advantage and the Rays' struggles at Tropicana, he labeled Houston a buy at the current -138 to -140 price.

Eric Lindquist recommended taking the Astros –1.5 at +125 in the Tampa matinee. He likes how Hunter Brown is trending—sub-30% hard-hit rate and a 32.2% strike-out rate—calling him “way better than the average pitcher walking into Tampa.” On the other side, Taj Bradley’s punch-out numbers have cratered to 19.2% and he is surrendering power to right-handed bats. Lindquist added that a 1 p.m. first pitch in humid, outdoor Tampa should sap Bradley’s stuff even more. With Houston stacking dangerous RH hitters (Walker, Peña, Meyers, Paredes) against a vulnerable Bradley, he sees clear value on the plus-money run line.

Michael Savio recommended Astros -1.5 at +118 behind Hunter Brown, who has emerged as one of baseball’s best pitchers. Brown sits at 6-2 with a 1.43 ERA and microscopic 0.83 WHIP; he’s allowed more than one earned run only once in his last seven starts and sports a 1.83 ERA in May. Tampa’s offense remains uneven despite Brandon Lowe’s return—four regulars are still hitting below .200 over the past week. Savio also pointed out Houston’s gaudy 1.130 OPS against Taj Bradley. The 24-year-old Rays right-hander has been erratic (3-3, 4.80 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) and is coming off a brutal four-inning, five-run outing with six hits and three walks. Given Brown’s dominance, Tampa’s cold bats, and Bradley’s struggles, Savio expects Houston to win comfortably and cover the run line.

Greg Peterson played Under 9 because Hunter Brown has been lights-out – 1.43 ERA, only two homers in 56.2 innings and just five total runs allowed over his last seven starts – while the Astros bullpen owns the league’s second-best ERA at 2.71. On the other side, Taj Bradley brings a shaky 4.80 ERA and a career-low 7.3 K/9, but Tampa’s pen is still solid (3.45 ERA, 10th). Peterson made the game 7.9 runs, giving more than a full run of cushion versus the posted total.

Razzle said Zack Littell is only a fringe consideration on the 5/20 main slate. The Rays right-hander owns a 13-homer ledger in 2025 (7 to righties, 6 to lefties) and gives up more fly balls than Razzle is comfortable targeting in a warm Trop with a slight breeze out. His underlying props are mediocre: just a 3.5 K-prop (over) and a minus-130 money-line coupled with a +145 Win prop and a bloated 9.0 game total. Houston’s projected lineup will be almost entirely right-handed, and Littell’s historical splits are basically neutral, so there’s no platoon advantage to lean on. Because quality alternatives are scarce he might stay in MME pools, but Razzle is leaning toward cutting him from his five- to seven-arm core.

Boston likes Houston at +104 and their team total over 4.0 against Zack Littell and a punch-less Rays offense. Tampa struggles badly versus lefties (.271 wOBA, 28th) and draws southpaw Brandon Walter making his first MLB start in two years. While Littell owns decent expected numbers (xBA .240, xwOBA .275 in 49 PA vs Astros), Boston trusts an Astros lineup that has scored four or more in three of its last four and is finally showing consistency. With Tampa’s sticks offering little margin for error—outside one 10-run spike last week—Boston projects Houston to win a 5-3 type contest and sees value any time their potent core is catching plus money.

Kenny g wants to ‘run it back’ with another under after cashing Monday’s 4-3 final, targeting the 9.5 posted for Astros–Rays. Houston is planning a bullpen game with 28-year-old swingman Brandon Walter opening, but that is hardly a downgrade when the unit owns an MLB-best 2.64 ERA. Their sticks remain a liability – 20th in runs and bottom-10 in slugging with only four games above six runs this month. Tampa counters with Zack Littell, who has allowed three or fewer earned in five straight and has the club 4–0 during that span. The Rays’ offense is arguably worse, sitting 23rd in runs and 25th in slugging, while their bullpen’s 3.45 ERA ranks solidly top-half. Kenny highlighted park- and trend-based evidence too: Houston is 11-9-2 to the under on the road; Tampa 15-11-2 to the under at home. Given two steady pens, light-hitting lineups and a generous 9.5, he expects scoring to stay suppressed again.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised betting the full-game UNDER for Astros-Rays, building a case around two sputtering offenses and trustworthy relief corps. Tampa is averaging just 3.8 runs (25th) with a 24th-ranked OPS through the first quarter of the season, while Houston scores only 3.55 runs per game on the road (24th) and sits 21st in OPS. The teams have cashed five straight unders head-to-head, a trend the tout expects to continue with Zac Littell limiting damage (only 7 ER over his last 20.1 IP, few walks) and Houston’s starter Josh Walter an unknown quantity likely held on a short leash. Both bullpens rank in the top half of MLB, further suppressing late scoring. With strikeout-prone lineups, middling power numbers, and Tampa’s pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field, the tout projected another grind-it-out game and recommended taking the under on the posted total.

Lindquist recommended firing on Brandon Lowe’s home-run prop at +380 or better in the same matchup versus Ryan Gusto. He emphasized that Gusto’s extreme fly-ball tendency (only 37% ground-ball rate) and 1.89 WHIP against lefties create perfect launch-angle conditions for Lowe, whose average batted-ball distance against righties (212 ft) and pull rate (46%) both rank top-20 among qualified hitters. Lindquist added that Lowe’s 92.6 mph average exit velocity versus four-seamers pairs well with Gusto’s 58% usage of that pitch. With Tampa’s projected lineup set to stack left-handed power, he expects Lowe to hit third or fourth, maximizing plate appearances and RBI equity.

Eric Lindquist circled Jonathan Aranda’s home-run prop as a must-bet at anything longer than +360. The entire play is an anti-Ryan Gusto stance: the Houston right-hander has already coughed up four homers to lefties in just 12⅔ MLB innings and is pairing that with a 1.89 WHIP. Lindquist noted that Tropicana Field is not deterring power this season and that Aranda owns a 44% hard-hit rate with a .238 ISO against right-handed fastballs dating back to 2023. Because Gusto has been used in multiple ‘bulk’ roles, Lindquist expects Tampa Bay to see him two, maybe three times through the order, giving Aranda multiple cracks at a pitcher “who just hands out home runs like chocolate at Willy Wonka.”

Malcom Bamford leaned to the full-game Under at Tropicana even without a confirmed Houston starter. The Astros are 23-14-4 to the first-five Under versus right-handed pitching, and their bullpen has remained elite despite rotation injuries. Zach Littell has given Tampa five straight starts of three earned runs or fewer with a tidy 1.12 WHIP, while both offenses have struggled in their respective venues (Rays 11-17 at home, Astros 9-13 on the road). With two quality relief corps and Houston likely deploying a bulk bullpen game after Hayden Wesneski’s season-ending surgery, Bamford thinks runs will be at a premium unless the Astros tap a pitcher he ‘completely and utterly dislikes.’

For Astros-Rays, Garofolo’s write-up cites Dimers’ simulations hitting the Under 9.5 runs 54.8% of the time, a 3.6% advantage over the ‑105 price that needs 51.2% to break even. Model factors include Cristian Javier’s 29% strikeout rate, a Rays lineup missing two regulars, and Tropicana Field suppressing home runs by 7% relative to league average. With both clubs ranking top-10 in bullpen ERA, the projections anticipate a pitching-driven game that stays under the posted total.

Data Skrive’s simulations churned out an eight-run expectation for Astros-Rays, well below the 9.5 posted total, so their best bet is the under. Houston is a narrow -113 favorite but both clubs rank bottom-10 in wRC+ over the last seven days and will throw bullpen-heavy staffs at spacious George M. Steinbrenner Field. With each side leaning on ground-ball relievers and Tampa Bay struggling to clear four runs in five of its last six, the computer flags the under as the sharper angle than a side.

Cash Out Sports Picks took Houston on the moneyline, citing rookie southpaw Colton Gordon versus a Rays lineup batting a miserable .203 against left-handed pitching. The Astros have won four of the last six head-to-heads, and Tampa is just 3-8 when favored at home versus AL opponents. Given the Rays’ continued issues versus southpaws and Houston’s recent success in the matchup, the tout believes the road underdog is mis-priced.