Data Skrive’s betting preview recommended attacking the 8-run total from the Under side. Their model spits out a 4-3 final (7 combined runs) and gives just a 43% chance the game reaches nine or more. Recent form backs it up: Minnesota’s pitching staff owns a 2.66 ERA with a whopping 10.0 K/9 over its last ten, while San Francisco checks in at a 2.97 ERA during that same window. The Twins have stayed Under in 8 of their past 10 contests, and the Giants have been held to eight runs or fewer in half of their last 10 despite 12 homers. With Pablo Lopez on the mound and an afternoon start at pitcher-friendly Target Field, the model sees value on Under 8 at the current -105/-115 juice.

While their simulation still has Minnesota eking out a 4-3 win, Data Skrive pointed out that the market is over-pricing the Twins at -145 (59.2% implied) versus the model’s 51% win probability. Conversely, San Francisco’s +122 line implies only a 45% chance, but the model gives the Giants 49%—a 4-percentage-point edge. San Francisco is 9-7 as an underdog this season and 4-3 when priced +122 or longer. They’ve averaged 4.6 runs with 12 homers over the last ten and paired that pop with a tidy 2.97 team ERA. Minnesota is scoring just 3.9 runs in that span and is merely 14-12 (53.8%) overall as a favorite. With a near coin-flip projection and plus money available, Data Skrive advises taking the Giants moneyline at +122.

Morgan called Harrison Bader a sneaky $2,700 option. Bader’s four homers and four steals already surpass last year’s pace, and he is batting .289 with an OPS above .800 both at Target Field and against righties. Rookie Landen Roupp’s move to the rotation has been rough: fastball velocity down 1.4 MPH, ERA up to 4.89, and right-handed hitters are batting .305. Morgan likes Bader’s mix of pop and speed to punish Roupp’s diminished stuff.

Morgan endorsed Pablo Lopez at $9,700, noting that everything is finally clicking for the right-hander: a 7.40 K/BB ratio, a 2.18 ERA, and the same elite homer suppression that has long been part of his profile. While San Francisco’s offense is slightly above average, Morgan trusts Lopez’s Cy Young–caliber form and expects another quality start with plenty of strikeouts, making him a strong single-entry play for those who want similar upside to Sale at a slight discount.

Peterson grabbed Giants +130 but would play them down to +114. While Pablo Lopez has a sparkling 2.18 ERA/2.11 FIP, rookie Landen Roupp’s 4.89 ERA masks a 3.89 FIP and 10 K/9 that suggest upside. San Francisco also brings MLB’s second-best bullpen by ERA (2.44), giving the underdog a late-inning edge. With regression coming for Roupp and elite relief behind him, Peterson believes the Giants are undervalued.

Guy Boston said he is playing Royce Lewis under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at –110. Lewis is still hunting for his first knock since being activated and has looked understandably rusty after the long IL stint. Boston noted the matchup does him zero favors: Logan Webb’s 62 % ground-ball rate and heavy sinker/change mix neutralize right-handed pop, and Lewis has generated just a .214 xBA versus sinkers since debuting last season. Webb has held current Twins hitters to a .225 xBA and .292 xwOBA over 75 plate appearances, and Boston expects at least six innings from him because the San Francisco bullpen was lightly used the past two nights. Target Field’s cool 55-degree forecast with light wind in further drags down extra-base-hit upside. With Lewis still finding his timing and likely batting sixth or seventh, Boston called the even-money fade a "set-and-forget play" in a game he already leans first-five under.

Guy Boston suggested playing Jung Hoo Lee under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs at –105. Lee is 4-for-24 (.167) against four-seam/splitter arms since May 1 and owns a .278 wOBA versus righties compared to .352 against lefties. Joe Ryan throws 60% four-seamers and 18% splitters and has limited left-handed batters to a .196 xBA this season. Target Field suppresses left-center power (93 HR factor), eliminating Lee’s gap-to-gap upside, and Minnesota’s bullpen has produced a 2.91 ERA over the last two weeks, limiting late-inning scoring chances. After Lee cashed this under in five of his past seven, Boston called the even-money price ‘a clear value’ in an ace-dominated matchup.

Bryan Power played under 7 runs in Giants–Twins, citing an ace-heavy matchup and elite bullpens. Logan Webb has allowed one run or fewer in five of his last seven starts; Joe Ryan has done the same in four of his last five. Minnesota has won six straight overall and seven in a row at home, but both teams feature top-10 bullpen ERAs, giving little room for late offensive explosions. With Friday’s opener ending 3-1, Power expects another low-scoring contest at Target Field.

Cash Out Sports Picks played the full-game UNDER in Giants-Twins. He noted both starters are capable of suppressing contact—Joe Ryan’s 2.93 ERA/0.90 WHIP and Webb’s ability to keep games tight even on the road. Neither offense is firing on all cylinders; Minnesota remains streaky, and San Francisco lacks consistent punch away from Oracle. Given the park, two in-form right-handers, and each club’s recent tendency toward close, low-run games, the tout projects a total that stays beneath the posted number.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Minnesota Twins on the moneyline. The tout highlighted Minnesota’s six-game winning streak and the lineup’s recent adaptability in finding different ways to win. He contrasted that with San Francisco’s uneven two-week stretch and emphasized Logan Webb’s drastic road/home split: a 0.44 ERA with a .219 BAA at Oracle Park versus a 4.18 ERA and .271 BAA in 28 road innings. Joe Ryan’s form was the clincher—2.93 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and a pristine 47-to-5 K/BB, allowing opponents to hit just .209 through seven starts and giving up only one run over his last 13 frames. With Ryan rolling and the Twins already clawing back into the AL Central race, the tout expects Minnesota to edge a low-scoring contest.

Kenny G leaned to the Twins at –115 in the near-pick’em with San Francisco. Minnesota has quietly ripped off six straight wins and sends Joe Ryan (2.93 ERA) to the hill after back-to-back gems versus the Angels and Red Sox. The Twins bullpen has matched the rotation with a 3.38 ERA, good for top-10 status. By contrast, he doesn’t fully trust Logan Webb right now after blow-ups against the Padres and Yankees and a Giants lineup that has fallen to 24th in batting average and has scored just one run in the series opener. With Minnesota 12-6 at Target Field and the Giants only –105 despite a 12-9 road record, Kenny thinks the market is underrating the Twins’ current form.

Scott Reichel swung for a plus-money payout by laying the –1.5 run line with Minnesota at +175. He acknowledged Joe Ryan’s chronic lack of run support but trusts the surging Twins—winners of five straight and 12-6 at Target Field—to give him breathing room against Logan Webb’s well-documented road issues (career 4.23 ERA away from Oracle versus 2.57 at home). Ryan enters with a 2.71 xFIP, 29 % strike-out rate and five consecutive quality starts, while San Francisco’s offense ranks 25th in road wRC+. Webb, meanwhile, carries a ground-ball heavy profile that loses effectiveness when hitters refuse to chase; Minnesota owns the league’s lowest chase rate and has been slashing .267/.336/.425 during its current 9-2 homestand. Reichel projected a 4–1 or 5–2 Twin victory and felt the +175 price was simply too rich to pass up.

Lonte Smith said the entire Ryan-Webb matchup screams low scoring. Ryan has rattled off five consecutive quality starts with a sub-2.00 ERA and .247 xwOBA, yet owns an 0-3 record because Minnesota has scored two runs or fewer in three of those games. Logan Webb’s home/road split (2.57 ERA at Oracle, 4.23 on the road) still carries a 60% ground-ball rate that limits damage, and San Francisco ranks just 25th in road wRC+. Smith added that both bullpens are fresh after a mutual off-day, making late explosions unlikely. He played First-5 Under 4.5 at –120 and doubled down on the full-game Under 8, projecting no more than six total runs.

Lonte Smith backed Minnesota –115 behind Joe Ryan, pointing to Logan Webb’s persistent road struggles (4.23 career road ERA versus 2.57 at Oracle). Ryan owns a 2.71 xFIP, 29% strikeout rate, and five straight quality starts, yet sits 1-4 because the Twins scored two runs or fewer in three of those outings. He expects positive regression as Minnesota’s offense has heated up during a 9-2 homestand, slashing .267/.336/.425. Smith highlighted that the Twins are 12-6 at Target Field and have the league’s lowest chase rate, a good fit against Webb’s sinker/changeup mix that relies on hitters expanding the zone. He projected Twins –130 and suggested pairing the moneyline with a Giants team-total under 3.5 for a same-game angle.

Peterson bet Over 7 (model 7.6) because both starters are far less effective in this setting. Logan Webb’s career ERA climbs from 2.67 at home to 4.08 on the road with double the HR/9. Joe Ryan is better in Minnesota (3.65 home ERA) but still owns a career 4.05 mark on the road; importantly, he faces a Twins lineup scoring 4.8 per game at Target Field, third in the AL. With both pens thin after a 12-inning game Thursday, Peterson expects enough offense to clear the key number.

The Data Skrive projection called for a combined nine runs but still leaned Under 9 thanks to several indicators: Minnesota is averaging just 3.8 runs over its last 10, while San Francisco is at 4.9—an 8.7-run aggregate that already sits below the posted number. Both rotations have been in form (Giants 3.48 ERA, Twins 2.79 ERA during that stretch), and strikeout arms Logan Webb and Joe Ryan should keep traffic down. The Twins have cashed the Under in eight of their past 10 totals, further supporting a lower-scoring script despite six Giant overs in that same timeframe.

Data Skrive projected a 5–4 Minnesota win even though oddsmakers have the Twins as slight –103 underdogs. The model noted: (1) Minnesota’s staff has been cooking—2.79 team ERA and 9.9 K/9 over the last 10—with Joe Ryan on the hill; (2) the Twins have gone 3-2 in their last five games as dogs and 7-3 ATS overall in that span; (3) San Francisco is just 3-3 as a money-line favorite in its last six and owns a middling 3.48 ERA in the same window; and (4) implied win probability for Minnesota (50.7%) is a hair lower than the model’s 49% Giants / 51% Twins split, creating a small edge on the Twins moneyline.

Scott Reichel fired on Over 9 runs in Giants–Twins, calling it “chaos in waiting” with Jordan Hicks and Chris Paddock on the bump. Hicks’ shiny ERA hides a 10.2% walk rate and steep decline in ground-ball percentage during May, while Paddock has been tattooed for a .314 opponents’ average and five homers in his last four starts. Reichel trusts neither man to reach the sixth inning, and he flagged that both clubs’ bullpens worked hard during mid-week series—Minnesota used Jhoan Duran on back-to-back days and San Francisco leaned on Rogers and Hicks’ piggyback arm Ryan Walker for multiple innings. With Target Field temperatures projected in the mid-70s and light winds out to left, he forecasts a 6-5 type slugfest that clears the total comfortably.

Kenny G leaned to Minnesota −120, citing a pitching edge and home momentum. Giants opener Jordan Hicks owns a 6.03 ERA and has been roughed up even by light-hitting clubs, while Twins righty Chris Paddack has strung together five straight solid outings and is backed by a sturdy 3.42 bullpen ERA. San Francisco’s relief corps is elite (2.47 ERA), but Kenny thinks it will be asked to cover too many innings and notes the Giants’ offense is due for regression: despite ranking 8th in runs, they sit just 24th in batting average and 16th in OBP. Minnesota has quietly won five straight and is 12-6 at Target Field. With the Giants 15-5-1 to the over on the road—an indicator their pitching often leaks—Kenny is comfortable laying short chalk on the surging Twins against a volatile Hicks.

Lonte Smith grabbed San Francisco +102, explaining that the market is over-valuing Minnesota off a cosmetic sweep of hapless Baltimore. He trusts the Giants’ lineup, which is averaging six runs across a 5-1 stretch, against Chris Paddock’s flat four-seam that has produced a 46% hard-hit rate. Smith conceded Jordan Hicks can be wild but noted the Giants’ bullpen carries a 2.91 ERA over the past two weeks, giving them cover if Hicks exits early. Conversely, Minnesota’s relief corps has logged 13.2 high-stress innings in the last three days, setting up potential late-inning leaks. With the game projected near pick-em, he believes the plus-money side on the hotter, deeper offense is a no-brainer.

Calling it his favorite bet of the entire Friday slate, Lindquist played Giants–Twins Over 9 (–102) thanks to 15-mph winds blowing straight out to center at Target Field. San Francisco’s Jordan Hicks keeps the ball on the ground (61.9 % GB) but still allows 46 % hard contact, a dangerous combo with the jet stream. On the other side, Chris Paddack brings a 15.7-degree launch angle and .479 xSLG that should translate to plenty of carry for a Giants lineup that mashes right-handed fastballs. Warmer temperatures and two middle-of-the-road bullpens further support double-digit run potential, prompting Lindquist to risk a half-unit and consider upgrading to a full unit if the number holds through first pitch.

He also played the full-game Over, citing a confluence of offensive trends and shaky starting pitching. The Giants have cleared the total in six of their last 10 and are averaging 5.2 runs during their current road swing, while the Twins have plated 28 runs during a five-game win streak. Hicks owns a 6.35 ERA in away games and walks nearly 12% of hitters on the road; Chris Paddack is allowing a .354 OBP with opponents consistently stringing together rallies. Five of the last 10 head-to-head meetings have reached double-digit runs, and four of the previous five in Minnesota have hit at least eight. With neither starter sporting an ERA below 5.50 and both managers likely to turn to their bullpens early, the tout expects a track-meet style contest and recommends the Over at the current number.

Mark Zinno and Bryan Power made the Giants moneyline their show best bet, with Zinno detailing the edge. Minnesota is riding a flattering five-game win streak after sweeping the lowly Orioles, a classic let-down spot. San Francisco is rested off a travel day and profiles better versus Chris Paddack, who has surrendered six homers already and owns only a 17 % strikeout rate. The Giants rank third in MLB in wRC+ on the road against right-handed pitching and carry the league’s second-highest road K-rate, but Jordan Hicks’ 34 K in 37 IP gives him just enough swing-and-miss to mitigate that. Meanwhile, the Twins strike out at the sixth-highest clip versus righties at Target Field, enhancing Hicks’ ceiling. Zinno added that the Giants bullpen sits third in ERA, giving them a clear late-inning advantage. All told, it’s an ideal spot to fade an overvalued Minnesota club and back San Francisco at pick-em moneyline prices.

Chris Ruffolo advised backing the Minnesota Twins on the first-five-innings moneyline for the May 9, 2025 matchup with the San Francisco Giants. He prefers Chris Paddack over Jordan Hicks in the opening five frames, pointing out that Paddack has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts and has reached at least five innings in each. Minnesota’s offense has been red-hot versus right-handed pitching over the past two weeks (.270 AVG, top-10 OPS, league-average ISO, only a 19.9% strikeout rate), giving them a clear edge against Hicks, who still struggles to pitch deep despite 10 strikeouts across his last 10 innings. Ruffolo notes San Francisco’s bats are merely average in the same span (.255 AVG, below-average OPS, bottom-10 ISO). With both clubs sporting solid bullpens, he wants to isolate the starters and ride the hotter lineup early, making the Twins F5 moneyline his recommended wager.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended taking the Giants on the moneyline in Minneapolis. He acknowledged Jordan Hicks has been wobbly away from Oracle Park but argued San Francisco’s deeper lineup, league-top bullpen and recent form tip the scales. The Giants have won five of six overall and swept the Twins in each of the past two seasons. Meanwhile Minnesota has dropped six of Chris Paddack’s seven starts, including two to the lowly White Sox, and their late-inning relief has been shaky compared to San Francisco’s shutdown unit. With both clubs entering on winning streaks but the matchup of bullpens and starting-pitcher track records favoring the visitors, he sees plus value backing the Giants to extend their dominance in the series.