Dylan Rockford endorsed Seattle at the current ‑142 price and would play them to roughly ‑160. Rookie Logan Evans has allowed just one run in 11 road innings against stronger lineups (Padres, Rangers), while the Mariners have won four straight and hit better on the road than at T-Mobile. White Sox rookie Shane Smith is talented (2.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) but gets no support—Chicago is 1-7 in his decisions and ranks near the bottom in run production. Rockford trusts Seattle’s form, offense, and bullpen over nine full innings and prefers the full-game moneyline instead of first-five.

Bevilacqua relayed that the Dimers model recommends White Sox +1.5 at -128 against Seattle. Simulations give Chicago a 58.2% chance to cover, producing a 2.0% edge versus the posted price. The projection leans on the Mariners’ league-average run differential and the Sox bullpen’s recent improvement, making the extra run and a half valuable in a mid-afternoon matchup.

Michael Savio played Under 8 runs in Mariners–White Sox, citing a pair of breakout youngsters on the mound. Seattle’s Logan Evans is 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA and has allowed just one run over his last 12 innings, including six scoreless frames versus a potent Padres lineup. While his 1.52 WHIP shows he doesn’t miss many bats, Evans has consistently stranded traffic. Chicago counters with 25-year-old Shane Smith, who owns a 2.05 ERA and 1.14 WHIP overall and an even stingier 1.69 ERA through three May starts. Savio notes Seattle’s lineup has cooled considerably over the past few weeks, and although the White Sox bullpen is shaky, he doesn’t expect enough late offense to threaten the total. With both starters in form and two bottom-tier offenses involved, Savio projects a pitching duel that keeps the score under eight.

Peterson laid the -1.5 run line at +110 (model -101). He trusts Logan Evans’ 2.57 ERA and just two homers allowed in four starts, plus a Mariners lineup scoring 5.4 runs per road game (5th in MLB). Shane Smith’s shiny 2.05 ERA is propped up by a 3.16 FIP, three walks per nine, and seven unearned runs, signaling regression. Seattle’s superior sticks and pitching justify the alt spread.

Boston suggested fading the White Sox offense with a team-total UNDER (either full game or F5) due to brutal hitting conditions at Guaranteed Rate Field. Forecast calls for steady rain and a 15-mph wind blowing straight in, and Boston cited historical data showing run expectancy in Chicago drops 18% when winds exceed 12 mph. The White Sox already rank last in MLB in wOBA and runs per game; layering weather suppression on top makes any 3.0-plus team-total ‘too high’ in his view. Seattle’s starter is undecided, but Boston said even a replacement-level arm will benefit from the environment, and the Mariners bullpen sits eighth in xFIP over the past two weeks. He would play Chicago’s F5 TT under 1.5 at plus money or full-game under 3.5 if books hang it, projecting no more than two Sox runs all night.

Cash Out Sports Picks took Seattle on the money line largely due to Chicago’s starting pitcher Bryse Wilson. Wilson brings an 0-2 record, 6.00 ERA, 1.79 WHIP and .331 opponent average across four starts, surrendering three homers in his last outing. Seattle sits top-10 in MLB homers and owns a 13-7 record since April 26, allowing just one run in each of its last four games. While the Mariners’ starting pitcher was not announced at recording, the tout called the White Sox offense "fade-worthy" regardless, noting Chicago’s chronic lack of production and momentum. Seattle’s recent defensive excellence and clear matchup edge against Wilson made the Mariners the clear side.

Brad Francis played the Mariners -1.5 against the White Sox. Seattle has covered the run line in six of its last eight games, including every contest in a recent series at San Diego. Francis trusts the Mariners’ road bats and pitching depth to dominate a White Sox club he called “terrible” and overmatched.

Calling it a potential ‘lock of the day,’ Kenny g is ready to lay the −172 with Seattle once a starter is confirmed. The Mariners have won four straight, boast MLB’s best road record (13-8) and pair a 10th-ranked offense with a 3.49 bullpen ERA. Even if they opt for a bullpen game, Kenny trusts the staff’s depth against a White Sox lineup that is dead last in batting average (.217), 28th in runs and 29th in slugging. Chicago counters with Bryce Wilson, who surrendered 10 hits and 7 earned to Cincinnati his last time out and owns no decisions through three spot starts. The Sox bullpen (4.73 ERA) offers no safety net. With Seattle’s bats producing 5-6-4-5 runs their past four and the massive pitching gap on both the front and back ends, Kenny expects another comfortable Mariners victory and may elevate it to his official daily best bet once pitchers are locked in.

Lindquist went right back to the first-five over 4.5 (–110 or better) after Monday’s push in Seattle-Chicago. His model projects 5.6 runs through five frames thanks to Bryce Wilson’s move from Milwaukee’s bullpen (career 1.55 HR/9 as a starter) into Chicago’s rotation. Seattle owns MLB’s third-highest hard-hit rate versus right-handers since May 1 and is likely to deploy six lefty bats, a split in which Wilson is allowing a .271 ISO. On the other side, Luis Castillo’s velocity dip (down 0.8 mph on the four-seamer) and mere 22% K-rate over his last four starts leave him vulnerable to Chicago’s right-handed power, especially at Guaranteed Rate Field where the wind projects to be blowing out to left at 11 mph.

Even without knowing Seattle’s starter, Lonte Smith is already committed to backing the Mariners –1.5 and betting their team-total OVER against Bryce Wilson. Chicago has surrendered 6-plus runs in five straight, while Wilson sports a 6.00 ERA, 1.79 WHIP and is coming off a seven-earned blow-up. Smith highlighted that Seattle’s offense has traveled well all year—top-10 in road OPS—and just completed an emphatic sweep of San Diego before taking two from the Yankees. With the White Sox bullpen ranking bottom-three in both ERA and strand rate, he expects the M’s to score early and late, making the run line and a TT of 4.5 or lower automatic bets.

John Venezia advised adding Jonathan Cannon despite Chicago's overall struggles. Cannon is rostered in only 8% of leagues yet has strung together four consecutive quality starts. Over 50 innings he holds a 39-to-17 K:BB, and notably has not issued a walk in his last three outings. Venezia credited a revamped cutter that now sports a 22.5% whiff rate and a 26.9% put-away percentage—more than double last season’s mark—as the driving force behind the surge. With Cannon among the hottest pitchers over the last few weeks, Venezia called him a low-cost pickup who can supply immediate innings and ratio help.

Kenny G called Seattle –205 a potential "lock of the day" despite the cross-country flight from San Diego. Luis Castillo has rounded into form—three gems in his last four outings, most recently six innings of one-run ball versus the Yankees—and now faces a White Sox lineup that sits dead last in batting average, 28th in runs, 29th in slugging and has produced 2-3-3-1-4 runs in its last five. Seattle’s offense, meanwhile, ranks 11th in both runs and OBP and just hung 6-4-5 on a solid Padres staff; Cal Raleigh already has 15 homers and the team carries a .326 OBP. The bullpen edge is real too: Mariners 3.48 ERA vs Chicago’s 4.62. Kenny is unconcerned about Davis Martin’s respectable 3.65 ERA because his blow-ups against Kansas City and Houston show how vulnerable he is to potent lineups. Seattle also boasts the best road record in MLB at 13-8. Kenny advised betting the moneyline even at heavy chalk and teased parlaying it with another favorite for reduced vig.

Cash Out Sports Picks liked Seattle on the money line, laying out a laundry list of mismatches. Right-hander Luis Castillo has surrendered only seven runs over his last three starts and just four in his last two road turns, holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in six of nine outings this season. Chicago counters with Chris Martin, who owns a 5-run allowance over his last two starts and a .292 opponent average plus three homers allowed in four games at Guaranteed Rate Field. Seattle already owns one of baseball’s best bullpens; the White Sox pen is sixth-worst by ERA. Offensively, the Mariners rank near the top of the AL against right-handed pitching while Chicago ranks near the bottom. Seattle swept San Diego over the weekend and took six of seven from the Sox last year, four of those wins coming by 3+ runs. With the worst club in the American League offering little home-dog value, he advised backing Seattle straight up.