Lonte Smith leaned to St. Louis on the moneyline, pointing to Erick Fetty’s “return to Chicago” narrative as an extra spark. Fetty has six straight winless starts, but Smith highlighted his underlying steadiness—only two outings with 3+ walks in that span—and believes his pitch-to-contact style can stifle a White Sox lineup sitting bottom-five in runs per game. Adrian Houser allows a high rate of base hits, which is a poor fit against a Cardinal group that typically puts the ball in play even while enduring a 7-of-10 skid. Smith projects a tight 4-3 or 3-2 finish, likes the full-game under, and will attach a small play to the Cardinals if the price stays near the current –135 range.

Kenny G advised betting the Cardinals at the current –140 moneyline in Game 1 of the double-header versus the White Sox, pricing St. Louis closer to –165. He trusts Eric Fidi (3-6, 3.65 ERA) after three consecutive quality outings far more than Chicago’s Sean Burke (3-7, 4.71 ERA, crushed by Houston in his last turn). St. Louis ranks ninth in runs, third in batting average, and sixth in OBP, while Chicago’s lineup is last in average, second-to-last in slugging, and third-to-last in runs. Even with a merely average Cards bullpen (3.82 ERA) Kenny notes it still outclasses the Sox pen (4.40 ERA). He mentioned over 8.5 is viable given Chicago’s 20-13-2 over record at home, but the superior lineup, pitching edge, and bullpen gap make the Cardinals ML his preferred play.

Just A Bet Outside recommended targeting Brendan Donovan for hits or total-bases props (and DFS) in either end of the Cardinals-White Sox double-header. Donovan is 6-for-his-last-9 with at least one knock in seven of ten. He mashes on the road (.355 AVG) and crushes right-handed pitching (.361 overall, .422 road split). Chicago is throwing righties in both games, guaranteeing favorable matchups plus a ninth-inning plate appearance. The host likes Donovan as a sneaky, low-salary cornerstone with multi-hit upside.

For Game 2, Lindquist likes St. Louis –1.5 again, this time behind No. 10 prospect Michael McGreevy versus Mike Vasil. McGreevy has issued just one walk through 11⅔ MLB innings, and Lindquist thinks his command will let him ‘eat up innings’ against a depleted White Sox lineup that is bottom-three in every power metric. Vasil’s lack of swing-and-miss stuff (sub-19% whiff rate in Triple-A) gives the Cardinals a decided talent edge for the nightcap.

Lindquist wants to pounce on St. Louis –1.5 in the first leg of Thursday’s twin-bill if Sonny Gray replaces Eric Fedde as expected. Gray’s 30% K-rate and .201 expected batting average line up perfectly against a White Sox lineup that owns the league’s worst wRC+ and strikes out 25% versus right-handed pitching. Chicago’s bullpen is already thin after multiple weather delays, so Lindquist expects the Cards’ bats to feast once Gray hands the ball off.

Drew Martin is willing to grab a plus-money ticket on the White Sox because he believes Adrian Houser gives Chicago the better arm. Houser boasts a 2.10 ERA and has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start. Eric Fedde, meanwhile, has dropped three straight decisions with an 8-walk, 12-strikeout ratio over that span. Martin also called out the Cardinals’ bullpen for recent struggles, giving the White Sox a rare late-inning advantage. With the market likely to price St. Louis as a road favorite based on brand name alone, Martin sees Chicago as a live dog on Thursday’s slate.

Cash Out Sports Picks took the St. Louis Cardinals moneyline, pointing to a favorable mound matchup and recent success in Chicago. White Sox starter Sean Burke has been tagged for 15 hits and nine earned across his last 10.2 innings, while Cardinals right-hander Eric Fed sports a 3.65 ERA and 1.28 WHIP and is even better on the road (3.13 ERA, .211 opponent average over 46 innings). St. Louis has captured four of the last five at Guaranteed Rate Field, outscoring Chicago 30-13. With momentum from a dominant series opener and a clearly superior arm, the tout sees value on the Cards.

Kenny G recommended playing the Cardinals at –190 on the moneyline (and said he may sprinkle the –1.5 run line) because the matchup tilts heavily toward St. Louis. He expects Sonny Gray to rebound after a rare stumble, pointing to Gray’s 2.64 ERA on the season and the fact Chicago’s lineup has produced just two, one, four, one, three and two runs during its current six–game skid. Opposing starter Sean Burke carries a 4.71 ERA and was torched for seven earned in 3.2 innings at Houston last time out. The White Sox bullpen (4.40 ERA) has been just as shaky, while the Cards’ relief corps has hovered around league-average and their offense remains top-10 in runs scored. Chicago is 22-50 overall, 16-18 to the over at Guaranteed Rate Field, and sports MLB’s fourth-worst pen ERA, making Kenny comfortable laying the big road price with the superior starter, lineup and bullpen.

Despite Sonny Gray’s overall strong season, Bamford is again backing Chicago in the first five innings as a +155 home dog. Gray’s road ERA sits at an ugly 5.88 across just five away starts, and Sean Burke—while shelled in Houston—has been serviceable on the South Side. More importantly, Chicago is now 14-6-8 (W-L-Push) in F5 moneyline bets as a home dog versus right-handed pitching. Bamford sees no reason to abandon a trend that has printed all year, especially with the Cards travelling and Gray showing clear home/road splits.

Just A Bet Outside said Garrett Crochet is set up for another punch-out binge against Seattle. The Mariners own a 25% K-rate versus lefties (13th highest, but still a quarter of their plate appearances) and Crochet has piled up 117 strikeouts in 96.1 innings this year. He has cleared 7+ Ks in six of his last seven outings and actually fanned 9 Mariners in only five innings earlier in the season despite walking five. Home/road isn’t a concern – his road K-rate (33%) is even better than at Guaranteed Rate Field (27%). With Seattle’s swing-and-miss profile and Crochet’s rising workload, the tout likes playing his strikeout over and building SGPs or DFS captains around him.

Bill Harrelson’s bonus pick was Sonny Gray UNDER 6.5 strikeouts. Gray has failed to reach seven punch-outs in seven of his last ten outings and 12 of his last twenty. On the 2025 season he is 10-for-14 (71%) to the under while averaging only 5.2 innings per start. The right-hander has stayed under this line in four of his last five road games, and the matchup comes in Chicago against a White Sox lineup that strikes out less versus righties than league average. Caesars, ESPN Bet, ProfitX, Novig, and Sleeper all price the under as a significant favorite, indicating a strong market lean. Because Harrelson expects the prop to be pulled off some boards, he labeled it a bonus play but still sees clear value in fading Gray’s strikeout ceiling tonight.

Jay Yang advised bettors to keep the rebuilding White Sox on their radar for next season because the market consistently prices them as heavy underdogs, creating profitable spots when their young arms flash. He pointed to Chicago being down only 12 net units despite a 23-49 record thanks to frequent +180 or higher moneyline tags. Yang emphasized the organization’s commitment to giving innings to high-upside pitchers like Sean Burke and Chris Martin, noting Burke’s recent seven-strikeout, one-run win over Texas as a glimpse of what could come. If even two of these prospects stabilize, Yang expects oddsmakers to lag, offering attractive plus-money value in 2026 similar to what early backers of last year’s Reds enjoyed. His takeaway: track these starts now, build pitcher-specific notes, and be ready to fire on Chicago when the matchup aligns.

Jay Yang said the total is too high for Wednesday’s Cardinals-White Sox game and recommended betting the under as long as Sonny Gray and Chris Martin are the listed starters. Yang highlighted Gray’s 2.84 ERA, consistent ability to suppress hard contact, and six quality starts in his last seven outings. He noted Chicago’s offense ranks bottom-three in both runs per game (3.3) and team OPS (.645), making run support unlikely. On the other side, Martin has flashed a 27% strikeout rate and a ground-ball percentage above 50% in limited MLB action, giving St. Louis few explosion paths of their own. Both bullpens enter with sub-3.40 ERAs over the past two weeks, further limiting late-inning scoring. With neither lineup in form and two reliable pens behind solid starters, Yang believes anything above 7.5 runs is worth an immediate under wager.