Just A Bet Outside recommended backing Tampa Bay at -118 because every checkpoint favors the Rays. He highlighted the starting-pitcher gap: Ryan Pepiot owns an 0.81 WHIP his last six turns and just carved Baltimore for 8 IP, 11 Ks and one earned; Tomoyuki Sugano, meanwhile, sports a 4.58 June ERA, a .318 BAA and has allowed 3+ earned in three straight Camden Yards starts while striking out almost no one. Pepiot’s .174 average and 34% K-rate versus left-handed bats neutralizes the Orioles’ best sticks (Holliday, Henderson, O’Hearn, Cowser). Offensively the split trends are lopsided: over the last three weeks the Orioles rank 21st in wRC+ and 28th in average against righties, whereas the Rays rank 2nd in wRC+, 4th in slugging and first in average (.289) with 5.9 runs per game in that span. Tampa is also 7-3 in its last ten overall and averaging five runs on the road. Both bullpens are rested and top-five in ERA the past three weeks, so the tout sees minimal late-inning variance. With the hotter club, the superior starter and the stronger righty-split lineup all at near-pick-em odds, he labeled Rays moneyline a half-unit best bet.