Paruk warned that Josh Jacobs’ 78.5 rushing-yard prop is too rich. The veteran back managed only 66 yards on 19 totes (3.5 YPC) in Week 1 and now faces a Washington front that just limited the Giants to 64 rushing yards. With Green Bay likely to sprinkle in A.J. Dillon and potentially play from ahead, Paruk doubts Jacobs sees the efficiency or volume needed to flirt with 80 yards.

Paruk called Over 53.5 receiving yards for Deebo Samuel a strong look. Washington funnels him bubble screens, slants, and jet motion touches that let him pile up yards after the catch. Against a Packers defense that concedes underneath volume to limit deep shots, Paruk expects Samuel’s manufactured opportunities and tackle-breaking ability to push him into the mid-60s.

Paruk leaned Under 1.5 passing touchdowns on Jayden Daniels at –151. Washington attempted only 26 passes in its opener and figures to keep the ball on the ground to protect a shaky line. With Green Bay’s secondary healthy and a disruptive edge rush waiting, Paruk doubts Daniels will see enough red-zone drop-backs to reach two scoring throws.

Calling the TD prop the sharper angle, Paruk grabbed Over 1.5 passing touchdowns for Jordan Love at –118. Love was hyper-efficient in Week 1 and piloted four red-zone drives without a misfire. Paruk trusts Matt LaFleur’s motion-heavy red-zone package—71% TD rate since last season—to generate at least two short-area scores despite Washington’s respectable between-the-20s defense.

Paruk endorsed Over 45.5 rushing yards for Jayden Daniels at –111. Washington builds designed keepers into every script, and Daniels’ athleticism is a safety valve when protection breaks down. Paruk expects Green Bay’s aggressive, up-field rush to open scramble lanes and anticipates 8-10 carries—enough volume for Daniels to clear the mid-40s even without a breakaway run.

Sascha Paruk laid the 3.5 points with Green Bay on TNF. He leaned on a stack of trends—Packers are 10-1 straight up as favorites, 4-1 ATS in their last five at Lambeau, and 9-0 when favored by fewer than seven. Paruk expects the Packers’ front (allowed just 2.1 YPC in Week 1) to stonewall Washington’s run-first attack, forcing Jayden Daniels into obvious passing downs where Rashan Gary and company can hunt. He also cited Jordan Love’s Week 1 efficiency within Matt LaFleur’s matchup-driven scheme and the early move from –3 to –3.5 as market confirmation.

Michael Fiddle recommended betting Austin Ekeler over 22.5 rushing yards at -115. He expects Washington to lean on the veteran because Green Bay’s upgraded pass rush, spearheaded by Micah Parsons, will keep Ekeler on the field for pass protection. Fiddle reasoned that using Ekeler solely as a blocker would telegraph plays, so Kliff Kingsbury will mix in handoffs and allow audible draw calls when Ekeler is the lone back. He also highlighted market action that drove the prop up from 20.5 to 22.5 yards, signaling sharp interest on the over, and reminded readers that both offenses posted near-50/50 run-pass splits in Week 1. All three factors point to Ekeler clearing a modest rushing line.

Michael Fiddle broke down the spread movement for Thursday night and explained why he is no longer laying the chalk with Green Bay after the market pushed the line from Packers -3 (-115) to -3.5 (-105). Fiddle stressed that roughly 15% of NFL games finish with a three-point margin and that moving on or off the key number of 3 is worth about 22 cents in betting value. Because the half-point jump yielded only 12 cents of value, he believes the Commanders now hold the edge at +3.5. He personally grabbed Green Bay at the opener but said anyone betting this game today should either take Washington plus the hook or play the Packers moneyline instead of the spread.

Rohit Ponnaiya backed Rashan Gary to record a sack at +110. With protection schemes likely sliding toward new teammate Micah Parsons, Ponnaiya projects more one-on-one looks for Gary, who generated five pressures (one sack, one QB hit, three hurries) in Week 1 and has registered at least a half-sack in seven of his last 11 outings. Washington’s line offers opportunity: Jayden Daniels was sacked 47 times last season and three more in Week 1, a consequence of his tendency to extend plays. Given Gary’s form, favorable matchup, and the premium price, Ponnaiya labeled the sack prop a value play for Thursday Night Football.

Rohit Ponnaiya advised taking the Under 78.5 rushing yards on Josh Jacobs at -110. Jacobs logged only 66 yards on 19 carries in Week 1 and has failed to break 70 yards in six of his last eight games. Ponnaiya underscored the matchup: Washington’s run defense graded 88.3 at PFF in Week 1, tops in the league, after allowing the Giants’ backs just 30 yards on 15 totes and holding New York to 3.7 yards per play overall. With the Commanders dictating the line of scrimmage and Green Bay potentially leaning more on the pass to exploit Washington’s secondary, Ponnaiya sees a tough path for Jacobs to reach 79 yards on Thursday.

Rohit Ponnaiya said Jayden Daniels is a good bet to hit the Over 21.5 completions prop at -105 on Thursday Night Football. He pointed out that Green Bay limited Detroit to 13 points in Week 1 yet still surrendered 31 short-area completions to Jared Goff, showing a willingness to concede underneath throws while preventing explosives. Washington opened as a 3.5-point road underdog, a script that should push Daniels’ drop-backs well beyond last week's 30 attempts in a comfortable win. Ponnaiya added that three Week 1 drops masked Daniels’ efficiency and that the quarterback had exceeded 21.5 completions in each of his previous nine full starts coming into 2025. With Green Bay’s bend-but-don’t-break coverage inviting quick passes, Ponnaiya expects Daniels to rack up volume and cash the Over.

Chris Farley sprinkled on Matthew Golden anytime TD at +250, noting the rookie played 47% of snaps in his debut but drew only two targets because Green Bay controlled the game. He expects a faster-paced, higher-scoring contest Thursday; if the Packers fall into a neutral or negative game script, Jordan Love should look Golden’s way more often. Farley highlighted that Josh Jacobs logged 20 touches while Love attempted just 22 passes versus Detroit, a usage split unlikely to repeat if Washington pushes the pace. More routes for Golden at home boosts the rookie’s touchdown equity at tasty odds.

Chris Farley grabbed Deebo Samuel anytime TD at +190, arguing Washington will have to manufacture offense through its versatile wideout because Green Bay’s front just stone-walled Detroit for 46 rushing yards on 22 attempts. With Austin Ekeler and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt facing a brick wall, Farley expects Scott Turner to scheme Samuel on jet motions and red-zone gadget plays. Samuel commanded a team-high nine targets and caught seven passes in Week 1, making him Washington’s most reliable scoring threat against a run-stuffing defense.

Chris Farley took Jordan Love over 226.5 passing yards, citing Matt LaFleur’s track record against Dan Quinn defenses (30, 31 and 48 points in three meetings). Love had 167 yards by halftime last week before game script stalled him at 188. Farley remains skeptical of Washington’s secondary and expects a more competitive game that keeps Love throwing. He referenced Love’s 2023 home splits—268.9 YPG average and a 251-yard median in victories—and noted that last year’s injuries muddied season-long stats. With Green Bay likely needing to match Jayden Daniels score-for-score, Farley projects 250-plus yards for Love.

Chris Farley faded Jacory Croskey-Merritt under 42.5 rushing yards. He expects Green Bay’s ferocious Micah Parsons-led pass rush to force Washington into more passing sets, reducing the rookie’s snaps because he is unproven in pass protection. Farley also warned of a crowded backfield with Chris Rodriguez potentially active and Austin Ekeler handling catch-up duties. He called Croskey-Merritt’s Week 1 line inflated: 82 yards came on 10 carries but 42 yards were on one run, leaving 9 totes for 40 yards. The same Packers defense just held David Montgomery to 2.3 YPC. In a likely shootout, Farley believes Ekeler fits the script better and sees limited rushing volume for Croskey-Merritt.

Chris Farley backed Washington +3.5 on Thursday night, arguing the market is underrating how well Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are playing. He pointed out that Daniels went 19-of-30 for 233 yards with 1 TD and 0 INT while adding 68 rushing yards behind a 220-yard team ground effort against the Giants’ vaunted front. Washington’s defense also held New York to 231 total yards and sacked Russell Wilson twice. Farley acknowledged Green Bay’s impressive 24-13 win over Detroit but noted the Packers eased off after leading 24-6 early in the fourth quarter. With the Commanders fresh off an NFC title-game run, he expects a back-and-forth battle and thinks the hook on a field-goal spread is valuable on a short week at Lambeau.

Ducey likes Jacory Croskey-Merritt over 37.5 rushing yards at -110. Washington hammered the ground game in Week 1—32 carries, 220 yards, 6.9 YPC—while the Packers’ defensive stats were flattered by Detroit abandoning the run after an early 10-point hole. PFF still graded Green Bay’s run D only 18th. Croskey-Merritt, a seventh-round rookie who averaged roughly 4.0 YPC in preseason, earned a 33% snap share and ripped off 10 carries for 82 yards (including a 42-yard burst) versus New York. Ducey believes the Commanders’ run-heavy identity and the tailback’s explosive first impression make this number a bargain.

Ducey recommended betting Micah Parsons 1+ sack at +102. The Lions still allowed four sacks to Green Bay last week despite grading 17th in pass-blocking and Parsons picked up one in what Ducey called a "quiet" debut. On Thursday he’ll hunt Commanders rookie LT Josh Conerly Jr., whose 12th-worst PFF grade at the position included two sacks surrendered to Brian Burns. Ducey labeled Parsons "arguably the best pass-rusher in the game" and expects the mismatch against an overmatched rookie to cash the prop.

Kenny Ducey backed Jayden Daniels to top 50 rushing yards at +107 in his Commanders-Packers same-game parlay. Ducey pointed out that Green Bay’s coverage earned the 4th-best PFF grade in Week 1, yet its pass rush underwhelmed—something he expects to change with new arrival Micah Parsons screaming off the edge. Washington’s line let Daniels operate with just 2.77 seconds to throw (13th-fewest among 33 QBs) against a weaker Giants front, so Ducey anticipates even less pocket time on Thursday. The "second-year" quarterback already ran 11 times for 68 yards last week and has logged 9+ carries in seven of his last nine games (playoffs included), averaging 60 rushing yards. With volume, matchup, and recent form all pointing the same way, Ducey likes the alt-line over for Daniels’ legs.

Alex Christenson advised backing Zach Ertz for an Anytime Touchdown on TNF. He pointed out that Jayden Daniels looked Ertz’s way early and often—Ertz ranked second on Washington in total targets and led the club in red-zone targets during Week 1, cashing one for a score. Christenson believes Green Bay’s secondary holds up well on the perimeter, funneling passes inside where the veteran tight end still excels at finding soft spots despite diminished speed. With a projected shootout and Ertz commanding Daniels’ trust near the goal line, Christenson likes the + odds for the TE to score again in Week 2.

Alex Christenson said Romeo Doubs is mispriced for Anytime Touchdown markets on Thursday Night Football. Doubs logged a massive 97% snap share in Week 1—no other Packers wideout cleared 66%—while finishing second on the team in targets and first in receiving yards. Christenson expects sportsbooks to adjust soon but notes they still hang + odds on Doubs as if he were a WR2/3. With a game total of 5.5 touchdowns and both offenses projected to push the pace, he views Doubs’ every-down role and established chemistry with Jordan Love as the best touchdown bet on the board.

JutPicks grabbed Matthew Golden at +250 for an anytime score, noting that Green Bay’s Week 1 blowout limited Jordan Love to just 22 pass attempts while Josh Jacobs soaked up 20 touches. If Thursday’s 48.5-point total proves accurate and the Packers fall behind, the rookie’s 47% snap share from the opener should climb. Even on only two Week 1 targets, Golden saw valuable perimeter routes and figures to leapfrog veterans for red-zone fades in a pass-heavier game script. With Washington’s secondary surrendering multiple explosive plays to Arizona last week, JutPicks believes the athletic rookie is live for his first NFL touchdown.

JutPicks backed Deebo Samuel at +190 to find the paint on Thursday night. He pointed out that Green Bay’s front just held Detroit to 46 rushing yards on 22 attempts, making a traditional ground attack a tough sell for Washington. With Austin Ekeler banged up and only rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt behind him, JutPicks expects Eric Bieniemy to dial up Samuel’s trademark jet-sweep and screen packages, especially inside the 20. The wideout commanded 9 targets and pulled in 7 receptions in Week 1, a clear sign the offense already funnels touches his way. Add in the game’s lofty 48.5 total and the implied need for creative short-yardage solutions, and Samuel’s hybrid usage profile becomes JutPicks’ favorite anytime TD angle.

Jacob Camenker targeted Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt at +210 for an anytime touchdown. The seventh-round rookie paced Washington’s backs with 10 carries, 82 rushing yards and a score in Week 1 while tying Austin Ekeler for the team lead with two red-zone rushes. Green Bay did stonewall Detroit at 2.1 YPC, but Camenker likes the + odds because Croskey-Merritt has already carved out high-leverage work near the goal line.

Camenker advised betting Jordan Love OVER 5.5 rushing yards (-110). Love averaged 5.5 rush yards per game last season even while nursing an MCL sprain, and he enters Week 2 healthy outside of a minor thumb issue on his non-throwing hand. The Commanders just allowed Russell Wilson—hardly a run-first QB at this stage—to pile up 44 yards on eight scrambles, suggesting lanes will be there if Love pulls it down once or twice.

Jacob Camenker recommended the OVER 2.5 receptions for Austin Ekeler at -160. Green Bay just surrendered 14 running-back catches to Detroit, a result Camenker attributes to the Pack inviting horizontal throws. Ekeler has logged at least three grabs in four straight games for Washington dating to last season, so the veteran’s short-area role plus the Packers’ soft underneath zone make three receptions a reasonable floor in what Camenker expects to be a higher-scoring affair than Washington’s 21-6 opener.

Jacob Camenker said to hit Ertz’s OVER 32.5 receiving yards at -110. The 34-year-old tight end drew five targets in Week 1 (second on the team) and caught Jayden Daniels’ only touchdown. Camenker pointed to Green Bay’s struggles against the position, noting Sam LaPorta tagged the Packers for 79 yards last Sunday. If Daniels maintains even a “modest clip” of looks toward Ertz, the veteran should clear a modest line that sits nearly 50% below LaPorta’s total.

Gary Pearson laid four stars on Green Bay -3.5 for Thursday night, arguing the Packers can ride an upgraded defense to an easy cover. He noted the Packers dismantled Detroit 27-13 in Week 1 while holding Micah Parsons to just 29 of 65 snaps as the staff eases him in. With that "acclimation process almost complete," Pearson expects Parsons—currently the Defensive Player of the Year odds favorite—to play a near-full workload. Parsons tormented Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels last season (4.5 sacks, six QB hits, four tackles for loss in two meetings), and Pearson believes pairing him with Lukas Van Ness and Rashan Gary will keep Daniels contained far better than the Giants managed on Sunday. Betting markets back the narrative: 69 % of early tickets and 52 % of the handle are on Green Bay, moving the price from +105 to as high as -120 and threatening to push the spread to -4 or -4.5. Even with starting linemen Zach Tom and Aaron Banks estimated as DNPs on the short week, Pearson trusts a Lambeau crowd and a defense that already forced Detroit into a fluky 13 points. At the consensus -110 juice, the bet implies a 52.4 % win probability and returns $9.09 on a $10 stake, value he thinks will disappear once Parsons' snap count normalizes.

Lang is back on Jordan Love UNDER 0.5 interceptions. Love has gone nine straight regular-season games without a pick and opened 2025 completing 16-of-22 throws with zero turnovers. Now healthier and moving better than a year ago, Love faces a Washington defense that must rely on four-man pressure; if Green Bay’s line holds, Lang expects another clean sheet. He treats low-INT quarterbacks like Love the same way he treats Justin Herbert props—auto-bet "no INT" every week until the books adjust.

Andy Lang bet Jayden Daniels to exceed 31.5 pass attempts. Daniels still threw 30 times last week despite Washington controlling the game from kickoff, which tells Lang the staff is comfortable letting him air it out. He anticipates a tighter contest in Green Bay and thinks the Commanders will lean on Daniels.

Lang’s favorite derivative is Washington’s first-half team total over 10.5. The Commanders averaged 14 first-half points last season and matched that number in Week 1. He prefers their lower bar to Green Bay’s 13.5 because it can be cashed with a touchdown and a field goal.