Kenny G advised laying the wood with Baltimore at –175, arguing this is the get-right spot the Orioles desperately need after five straight losses. He is fading Michael Soroka, whose 6.43 ERA and 1.62 WHIP through three starts offer little hope; Soroka just managed four innings versus Atlanta and has yet to complete five frames. That means a heavy dose of the Nationals’ 6.64 bullpen ERA— worst in baseball— against an Orioles lineup Kenny expects to rebound despite ranking 25th in runs. Baltimore counters with Zach Eflin (3–1, 3.13 ERA) who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of four outings, including a five-inning, two-run win over the Angels last week. While the Oriole pen is far from elite (4.93 ERA), Kenny notes it is still a full run better than Washington’s and should hold a late lead if Eflin gets them to the sixth. The Nationals are 9-15 on the road and 15-8-1 to the under away— a profile Kenny reads as low offensive ceiling— so he is comfortable swallowing the juice on Baltimore to avoid a sweep.

B Wade advised betting Zach Eflin under 1.5 walks allowed against Washington. Eflin has topped this number only three times in his last 20 starts and has never done it in consecutive outings. He walked two Angels his last time out, but Wade expects an immediate snap-back because the Nationals rank near the bottom in both walk rate and overall offensive pressure. Priced at –195, Wade believes fair odds are closer to –350/–400 given Eflin’s elite strike-throw profile, calling it a rare spot where heavy juice still holds value.

Eric Pathi advised grabbing the Washington Nationals at +140 against the Orioles on 5/18/25. He invoked his "rule of 10" angle: Baltimore has dropped five straight yet is still a hefty –166 favorite behind starter "Effing" (he never clarified, presumably Dean Kremer or another back-end arm) while Washington counters with Michael Soroka. Pathi believes bettors should attack a team stuck in a losing streak only when the market keeps pricing them as a big favorite (over 60–50 cents). In his view the Orioles’ brand name is inflating the line and the value sits squarely on the Nationals as live underdogs.

Drew Martin backed the Nationals at +140 in the Beltway finale, laying out several edges. Michael Soroka, though limited to roughly five-inning stints, owns a sub-4.00 FIP across 14 innings and faces an Orioles offense ranking bottom-10 both season-long and over the past week by wRC+. Baltimore is just 15-28 overall, 8-13 at Camden Yards and dragging a ‑75 run differential. Zach Eflin’s fastball has lost a tick, and the O’s bullpen has been, in Martin’s words, "awful." Conversely, Washington has taken the first two games, scoring 14 runs and bringing the hotter lineup. Given the superior current form and bullpen edge, Martin felt the dog price was too large and labeled Nationals +140 his preferred way to open Sunday’s card.

Morgan pegged Gunnar Henderson ($3.2k) as a bargain bat, citing six homers, two triples and three steals despite Baltimore’s struggles. Henderson carries an OPS north of .900 both at home and versus right-handers, while Michael Soroka brings a 6.43 ERA this year and a 5.36 mark across the last three seasons.

At just $3,200, Gunnar Henderson makes Morgan’s bargain list thanks to a .900+ OPS against right-handers and at Camden Yards. The Orioles shortstop faces Michael Soroka, who sports a 6.43 ERA this year and a 5.36 mark over the past three seasons. Henderson’s blend of six homers, two triples, and three steals has Morgan projecting a points-per-dollar smash spot.

At just $3,200, Gunnar Henderson makes Morgan’s bargain list thanks to a .900+ OPS against right-handers and at Camden Yards. The Orioles shortstop faces Michael Soroka, who sports a 6.43 ERA this year and a 5.36 mark over the past three seasons. Henderson’s blend of six homers, two triples, and three steals has Morgan projecting a points-per-dollar smash spot.

Peterson recommended Orioles ‑1.5 at +120 because the starting-pitching gap is massive. Mike Soroka owns a 6.43 ERA through two 2025 starts and, dating to 2024, is 0-12 with a 5.00 ERA, 1.4 HR/9 and 4.6 BB/9 across 28 outings. Zach Eflin has quietly stabilized Baltimore’s rotation, going 3-1 with a 3.13 ERA, only 0.8 HR/9 and 1.2 BB/9. Peterson’s own line made the Orioles ‑1.5 ‑107, so he sees a 27-cent edge on the run line thanks to Soroka’s continued struggles and Baltimore’s superior bullpen.

JD Bets took MacKenzie Gore to clear his 6.5-strikeout prop against Baltimore. Gore has morphed into a “strikeout machine,” averaging 8.3 Ks per start on the season and 8.6 over his last five. He already fanned eight Orioles in their previous meeting this year, and Baltimore currently sits 22nd in strikeout rate (10.4 per game over the last 10). The line opened at 6.5 with modest juice, offering a full K of cushion versus Gore’s recent baseline. JD acknowledged a 70-plus percent chance of rain in the first inning, but noted the worst storms are projected before or right at first pitch, meaning a pre-game delay would actually protect the bet from an in-game shutdown that could knock Gore out early. Weather risk acknowledged, he still likes the over given the matchup and Gore’s form.

Scott Reichel flagged James Wood’s home-run prop as his favorite bet in the O’s–Nats matchup. Wood already has 11 long balls on the season and owns a .286 average with pop against left-handers, so he will not mind if Baltimore sticks with southpaw Cade Povich, who has been tagged for seven homers in limited big-league work. Reichel noted that original starter Kyle Gibson is no safer—he, too, has surrendered seven bombs and sports a double-digit ERA. Either way, Reichel expects a homer-friendly matchup for Wood and is shopping plus-350 or better on the standard HR market, confident that Baltimore’s vulnerable arms and Camden Yards’ summer conditions set up another big swing from the rookie slugger.

Lonte Smith doubled down on Washington by playing both the First-5 moneyline and the full-game ML. He loves MacKenzie Gore’s recent form – low hit rate and a "high K-rate as usual," with three runs or fewer allowed in four straight – and noted that Baltimore’s slumping sticks (two wins in their last 10, both versus the Angels) are unlikely to punish him. Smith hammered Kyle Gibson’s implosion: 12 earned and 16 hits over his last two outings, a low strike-out profile, and the Orioles losing all three of his starts by 3+ runs. He praised the Nationals’ newfound aggressiveness on the bases and a lineup hitting more line drives, concluding that Washington should control the early innings and still be ahead when Baltimore’s lifeless bats and leaky bullpen show up late.

Scott Reichel laid the short –110 with Washington, calling it “an easy bet” against a Baltimore side he labeled unplayable right now. Reichel rattled off Kyle Gibson’s grisly numbers – 0-2 record, 13-plus ERA through three starts, at least three earned in every outing, five-plus in two of them, six walks and seven homers already allowed – and pointed out that the Orioles have dropped all three of his appearances by 3+ runs. Conversely, MacKenzie Gore has been steady: four straight starts of three earned or fewer, a 3.59 season ERA and a strikeout-per-inning profile that should carve up an Orioles lineup shut out Thursday by Chris Paddack. With Baltimore just 2-8 in its last 10 (the only wins coming versus the Angels) and still scuffling offensively, Reichel argued Washington’s scrappy, aggressive offense and clear pitching edge make the Nats undervalued at basically a pick’em price.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended attacking the full-game over because neither starter nor bullpen is in form. He noted that MacKenzie Gore has produced a 4.18 ERA and .278 opponent average across his last 28 innings over five road starts, while Cade Povich carries an ugly 7.94 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in four home outings. Team-wide performance this month offers no relief: Washington ranks 29th in May with a 5.59 staff ERA and Baltimore is only slightly better at 25th with a 5.02 mark. With two hittable left-handers on the hill and two bottom-six pitching staffs behind them, the tout expects sustained traffic on the bases and plenty of crooked numbers, making the over his preferred total play for this matchup.

Brad Francis recommended betting the over in Nationals vs Orioles on May 16. He pointed out that both clubs field bottom-five bullpens: Washington’s relievers own a 6.86 ERA (second worst) while Baltimore’s sit at 5.04 (fifth worst). Francis expects neither starter to work deep—Kyle Gibson has already coughed up 12 earned runs in just seven total innings this year and MacKenzie Gore regularly exits after five—meaning those shaky pens should decide the game. He added that each lineup has produced runs consistently in 2025, noting Baltimore’s offense has stayed hot even during a rough series against Minnesota. With terrible relief pitching and two offenses capable of capitalizing, Francis believes “we see a ton of runs” and the contest sails over the posted total.

Cash Out Sports Picks said the Washington Nationals money line is worth backing because MacKenzie Gore gives Washington a clear edge over Cade Povich. Gore owns a 1.16 WHIP that ranks top-40 in MLB and leads the matchup in strikeouts, while Povich has been tagged for 43 hits and 22 earned runs in only 35.2 innings. At Camden Yards he is carrying a brutal 7.94 ERA with a .300 batting average allowed across 17 innings. The tout highlighted a stark gap in clutch hitting as well: the Nationals sit 22nd with a .698 OPS with runners in scoring position, while the Orioles are dead last at .581. Washington has also dominated the series lately, winning five of the past six head-to-head meetings. Since April 20 Baltimore has collected just six victories, reinforcing his point that the roster is not built to win consistently. With recent form, a decisive mound advantage, and better situational hitting, he labeled the Nationals money line the first and strongest wager on this game.

Brad Francis advised taking the Nationals on the first-five-innings line Friday because he sees a massive starting-pitching edge. Francis, "a MacKenzie Gore fan," expects the young left-hander to keep Baltimore quiet, while Kyle Gibson has been an automatic fade: nine earned runs in three innings versus the Yankees and three earned in four against the Royals give Gibson an ugly 15.43 ERA through two starts. Baltimore’s reliance on aging arms like Gibson underscores its struggles, whereas Gore’s stuff and strikeout upside should put Washington ahead before its unreliable 6.86-ERA bullpen even enters. Francis calls the Nats F5 bet the safer way to exploit the mismatch without worrying about late-inning meltdowns.

Martin grabbed Washington at a near even -105 price because he sees a massive starting-pitching gap. MacKenzie Gore, the former No. 3 overall pick, has punched out 75 batters in 52 innings and carries solid surface numbers. Cade Povich, meanwhile, had his previous turn skipped, sports an ERA and FIP north of 5.00, and is fighting control (8 walks) and homer issues (5 HR) in his last 7 Camden Yards innings. Even with both lineups ranking bottom-10 overall, the Nats have been markedly better versus lefties, giving Gore superior offensive support. Rain is possible, so Martin advises listing Gore, but if he goes he wants the Nationals in a straight pick’em.

Just A Bet Outside placed a half-unit wager on the Nationals first-five-innings moneyline at –115, citing a sizable pitching mismatch between MacKenzie Gore and Orioles rookie lefty Kee Povich. Gore’s 35% strikeout rate and seven-of-nine starts allowing five hits or fewer give Washington a clear run-prevention edge early. He already handled this Baltimore lineup once, limiting them to four hits and two earned runs with eight Ks. Povich, meanwhile, carries one of the worst left-handed profiles in MLB – 6.38 xERA and a 12% walk rate – and makes just his second career start, leaving the tout unconvinced he can navigate a Nationals order that sits top-10 in wRC+ versus southpaws. Because a first-five wager refunds on a tie, the host believes the play captures Gore’s dominance while avoiding Washington’s shaky bullpen. He projects the Nats to lead 2–0 or 3–1 after five.

Just A Bet Outside flagged MacKenzie Gore’s strikeout prop (likely 6.5) as one of the best K bets on the Friday slate. The Orioles own the 7th-highest strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching over the last three weeks (25.6%), and Gore brings a top-tier 35% K-rate into Camden Yards with 75 punch-outs in 52.2 innings. He has cleared seven strikeouts in six of his last seven outings and sports an absurd 41.4% K-rate when attacking fellow lefties. Even though his road K-rate (32.5%) trails his home mark (38.9%), it is still well above league average. The host expects Gore to lean on his slider (45% whiff rate) against an O’s lineup that swings through breakers 35% of the time, projecting 7–9 strikeouts in five to six frames. He advised taking the over and pairing it in same-game parlays with Baltimore’s team total under for a plus-money angle.

Lindquist advised laying the modest –115 juice on Washington in the first-five innings with MacKenzie Gore on the bump. Baltimore’s offense has cratered against southpaws—league-worst 50 wRC+, .074 ISO, .179 batting average and a 25.4% K-rate—while Gore brings above-average swing-and-miss from the left side. With rookie Cade Povich starting for the Orioles, Lindquist prefers isolating the starting-pitching edge before bullpens get involved. He views the Nats as roughly –135 true F5 favorites and sees additional upside if Gore’s over-6.5-strikeout prop (still being evaluated) lands in plus territory.

Rob Donaldson played Ryan Mountcastle over 1.5 total bases (2.5u) and a homer at +700 (1.5u). He cited MacKenzie Gore’s 44% hard-hit rate and 1.41 HR/9 to righties. Mountcastle carries a .298 ISO and .940 OPS versus left-handers since 2022 and is averaging 96 mph EV over the last week. Rob called +700 ‘criminal’ given Gore’s tendency to miss over the heart of the plate and the warm 78-degree forecast at Camden Yards. He expects at least one 104-mph batted ball from Mountcastle Friday night.

Chris Bennett said MacKenzie Gore is a priority tournament arm at $9,700 because Baltimore has been hopeless against southpaws, carrying a 50 wRC+, .236 wOBA and .074 ISO. Gore already logged 40 FanDuel points against this lineup earlier in the year by punching out eight over six frames, and Bennett expects a similar strikeout haul even if the Orioles’ left-heavy order nicks him for a run or two. Weather is the only caveat; otherwise Gore profiles for ceiling at a non-ace price.