Manny Machado rounded out the trio of honorable-mention props. He is 2-for-4 with a homer (.500 AVG) off MacKenzie Gore and had recorded a hit in eight of his previous 11 games prior to June 24. The tout said those numbers justified including Machado in larger prop builds for anyone seeking extra legs.

Luis Arraez was another prop target. The analyst pointed out Arraez entered June 24 riding a 10-for-10 game hitting streak and is 2-for-6 lifetime off the unnamed opposing arm. Given Arraez’s elite bat-to-ball skill and current form, the tout felt comfortable adding his 1+ hit line to same-game or multi-player parlays.

Lonte Smith recommended betting Manny Machado to go deep against Trevor Williams, citing a perfect storm of form and matchup. Machado has homered in back-to-back games and now faces Williams, whose 16.3% strikeout rate and 43% hard-hit rate translate to the highest expected slugging against of any qualified NL starter this month. Smith noted that Williams’ four-seam/sinker combo lives in the heart of the zone and produces a league-high 91% contact rate, while Machado owns a .579 slugging percentage on pitches middle-in—the exact quadrant where Williams most frequently misses. With Petco’s marine layer lighter during summer night games, Smith projected fair odds around +350 and advised layering the HR prop with RBI markets for added upside.

Lonte Smith is ready to lay the RUN LINE and fold San Diego into parlays (Boston, Yankees) because Trevor Williams’ surface ERA is fool’s gold. Williams has allowed 20 hits over his last three outings but only six earned, a gap Smith labeled "unsustainable" at Petco. San Diego has won six straight against Washington and finally has the lineup healthy: Tatis, Profar, and Cronenworth all boast OPS north of .850 in the last two weeks. If books open the RL near even money, Smith sees it as a buy spot, projecting a 6-3 Padres win.

With San Diego yet to announce a starter, Malcom Bamford focused on a PADRES TEAM TOTAL OVER against Trevor Williams. The Nationals righty owns a 6.63 ERA across 11 starts versus NL opponents and, despite allowing only two earned in three straight, carries a FIP north of five thanks to mediocre strikeout and hard-hit numbers. Bamford sees regression looming and trusts the Padres’ six-game win streak over Washington as confirmation they see Williams well. Even without a posted line he plans to attack any TT 4.5 or lower, expecting the Padres to chase Williams by the fifth.

Eric Lindquist flagged Lane Thomas as a plus-EV stolen-base dart Tuesday. Thomas owns elite wheels (96th-percentile sprint speed) and usually bats second versus lefties, maximizing plate appearances. He’ll get southpaw Eric Lauer, whose pickoff move cratered after leaving San Diego; Statcast credits him with a –1 net stolen-base prevention score the last two seasons. Making matters worse for Toronto, Alejandro Kirk’s 16% caught-stealing rate ranks bottom-five among qualified catchers. With muggy mid-90s temps expected, Lindquist expects the Nats to push the running game. He’s shopping for +300 or longer on a Thomas swipe and will fire if books hang it.

Kenny G said the Padres are worth the -165 moneyline (and even -1.5 if you want plus-money) because every component outside of raw lineup power tilts San Diego’s way. He trusts rookie Ryan Bergert, who owns a 1.88 ERA and has delivered four straight serviceable outings while the club has gone 3-1 in those turns, including 4.2 scoreless innings at Dodger Stadium. Trevor Williams counters with a 5.54 ERA and has faced a cupcake run of the Rockies, Marlins and Rangers—yet Washington still lost two of those three starts. The Nats’ bullpen is a disaster (5.93 ERA, second-worst in MLB), whereas the Padres’ relief corps grades top-5 on the season. San Diego is 23-13 at Petco and 21-14-1 to the under there, showing they win with pitching and defense; Washington is 16-22 on the road and a .500 total team. Offensively the Friars sit only 20th in runs and 23rd in slugging, but Kenny thinks Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. supply enough pop against a shaky staff. With the Nationals’ lone dangerous bat being James Wood (21 HR), he believes it is “really unlikely” the Pads drop back-to-back home games and flagged them as a moneyline or run-line play.

JDBetsHQ said he is playing Michael King over 1.5 walks issued at roughly ‑120 when the Padres host Washington. King is averaging 2.1 free passes per start and has gone over this number in seven of nine outings, giving bettors a 0.7-walk cushion on his season baseline. JD highlighted that the Nationals are top-5 in walk rate and eighth in overall plate-discipline metrics during the last two weeks, making them one of the toughest lineups for pitchers trying to limit BBs. Even in King’s lone gem against the Dodgers he still handed out a pair of walks, so the right-hander’s 9.7% BB rate travels. With Washington willing to take pitches and King’s track record of at least two walks in nearly every appearance, JD projects 2–3 free passes before the bullpen door opens and believes the true price should be nearer ‑150. He tagged the over as a solid single-game prop and rolled it into his eight-leg Monday card anchored by Atlanta, Cincinnati, Arizona and Milwaukee moneylines.

Guy Boston Sports leaned to Washington at +155 or better with a correlated under in Nationals–Padres. He argued the price overestimates San Diego’s ability to hit left-hander Mitchell Parker. Over the past 30 days the Padres sit 29th or 30th in average, wRC+, OPS, ISO and slugging versus southpaws, and they rank 28th against four-seam fastballs, Parker’s primary offering. On the mound Stephen Kolek has allowed only four earned runs across his last three starts and carries a 28% strikeout rate against lineups no weaker than Washington’s. Guy sees the Padres’ path to victory as a low-scoring 4-2 type outcome; if they can’t crack Parker early, the Nationals’ underrated bullpen (3.48 ERA in June) can hang on. Because of mirrored run-suppression angles he also likes under 8.5 but the dog moneyline is the more enticing play given San Diego’s offensive splits.

Razzle actually prefers Mitchell Parker over Joe Kolek in the late game. San Diego’s lineup owns below-average numbers versus left-handed pitching, and even star Fernando Tatis Jr. has struggled badly in the split this season. Parker’s K-prop opened at 3.5 with juice to the over, a bar he has cleared in four of his last six outings. He does give up the occasional homer, but Petco suppresses power and Parker draws a cooler marine layer than most pitchers will enjoy tonight. Salary relief plus a realistic five-plus strikeout path puts him firmly in Razzle’s GPP pool when double-paying for upper-tier arms isn’t feasible.

For his first official play, Lindquist locked in Under 9.5 runs in Marlins-Nationals behind lefties Patrick Corbin and Trevor Rogers. He praised Corbin’s renaissance—cutting his expected ERA to 4.33 after four straight seasons north of 5.50—and argued that Nationals Park suppresses right-handed power, the main avenue of scoring for both clubs. Rogers is likely on a 4-5 inning plan before Miami’s above-average bullpen (3.55 ERA) takes over, further limiting damage. With two southpaws neutralizing hitters’ platoon edges and a weather forecast under 80°F, Lindquist labeled 9.5 "a huge number" and would play the under down to 9.

Lindquist highlighted Manny Machado as his favorite Padres bat to back in prop markets (total bases or HR) Monday against Nationals left-hander Mitchell Parker. Machado owns a 13-degree average launch angle and a .538 expected slugging percentage, both far superior to any active San Diego hitter versus southpaws, and he rarely strikes out (17.3% K rate). Parker, meanwhile, carries only a 17% strikeout rate with a heavy fly-ball profile, exactly the combination Lindquist targets for righty power at Petco. With Fernando Tatis Jr. slumping and possibly banged up, Lindquist expects the offense to funnel through Machado and is comfortable playing him over 1.5 total bases at anything +115 or better, sprinkling HR at 5-1 or longer.

Dylan Rockford’s numbers make San Diego a –215 favorite, but he still wants the plus-money Nationals if books post anything better than +180. Rockford noted the Padres have been ‘extremely profitable to the Under,’ scoring three or fewer in five of their last seven, which decreases margin for a large favorite. He likes how Mitchell Parker’s changeup neutralizes left-handed pop and thinks an Under could come into play with both offenses scuffling. Washington just beat the Dodgers twice and led 3-0 in the getaway game, proving they can hang with elite teams. If the price is right, Rockford will take the Nats and sprinkle the Under once totals are released.

With odds yet to post, Scott Reichel plans to grab Washington if bookmakers hang anything north of +180. The Padres have lost four of six and could drop a home series to Kansas City, while the Nationals just took two of three from the Dodgers and were leading 3-0 in Sunday’s finale. Reichel respects San Diego rookie Stephen Kolek but thinks Mitchell Parker can match him, especially with the Padres’ bats sputtering (ranked 21st in wRC+ over the last two weeks). Washington has been ‘feisty’ as an underdog all season and owns a profitable record against the run line on the road. Reichel will take the Nats moneyline and may look to split the stake with +1.5 if the price is steep.