Gannon tagged Ludvig Aberg as his favorite $9k play. Aberg nearly won here last year, gaining strokes in every category, and he enters on the best four-week iron run of his 2025 season. Because most DFS chatter is on Collin Morikawa, Gannon expects Aberg’s ownership to stay manageable, making him a strong tournament pivot with legit win equity.

Asked about Ludvig Aberg’s chances, Bo McBrayer quickly passed, pointing to the Swede’s ongoing chipping issues. Aberg missed the cut in his 2023 Scottish Open debut and failed to make the weekend at last year’s Open Championship, and McBrayer does not believe those short-game deficiencies magically disappear on the Renaissance Club’s shaved surrounds. Until the scrambling numbers improve, Bo thinks bettors should stay away despite Aberg’s elite tee-to-green upside.

Matt Every said the 30-1 number on Ludvig Aberg is finally long enough to fire despite the Swede’s well-documented short-game slump. Every reminded listeners that Aberg actually held the lead at last year’s Genesis Scottish before finishing T4 and has looked progressively sharper over his last three U.S. starts (T38 U.S. Open, T17 Travelers, T8 Rocket Mortgage). He also noted Aberg already owns a stateside win at the Genesis Invitational and spent the past two weeks back home in Sweden recharging. While Aberg is still losing strokes around the green, Every argued firm Scottish links let players mask scrambling with bump-and-runs and putter work, and Aberg’s iron play is “back to where we expect it.” Because Aberg is normally parked in the 20-22-1 range, Every believes the extra value plus proven win equity make him a core outright and DFS anchor this week.

David Barnett urged caution on Ludvig Aberg despite the tempting 30-1 price. Barnett admitted Aberg’s ceiling as an elite ball-striker and referenced last year’s T4 finish, but pointed to the Swede’s recent short-game slump—"his scrambling has been not good"—at a venue where Barnett expects around-the-green play to matter more because of the anticipated dry, bouncy conditions. Given that weakness and the premium links courses place on imaginative recovery shots, Barnett does not believe Aberg currently has the all-around skill set to justify an outright ticket and prefers fading him in matchup and placement markets until the short game turns around.

Matt Brown said this is the perfect spot to fire outright and DFS shares on Ludvig Aberg but warned he will likely have zero exposure at next week’s Open Championship. Brown loves Aberg’s current profile for Renaissance—elite driver who ranks top-20 in Birdie or Better Gained and Opportunities Gained over the last 16 rounds, plus a T-4 here in 2024 that proves course fit. The Scottish setup features generous fescue run-outs and oversized greens, minimizing short-game stress. Brown thinks that masks Aberg’s one glaring hole: around-the-green play, where he sits outside the top 100 on Tour. At Royal Troon next week, the tighter lies and mandatory creativity around pot bunkers will punish that weakness, so Brown plans to pivot off Aberg there. For this week, however, he expects the Swede’s driver-plus-birdies combo to thrive in a projected 20-under shoot-out and is happy to grab him at 30-1 or better.

Kelley Bydlon welcomed Ludvig Aberg back onto his card at 30-1, highlighting the Swede’s renewed consistency over his last 16 rounds: 29th off-the-tee, 19th in driving distance, 19th in approach and 8th in Opportunities Gained against this field. Aberg finished T4 at Renaissance last year, so course fit is proven. Bydlon admitted the short game is still shaky but figures oversized greens minimize the weakness. Any time Aberg drifts to 30-ish, Bydlon says he’ll buy because the ceiling—elite driver plus high-rate birdie maker—plays perfectly in a projected 20-under shoot-out.

Brian Kirschner argued that 30-1 is a fair outright on Ludvig Aberg even though the Swede has cooled off since winning the Genesis. Aberg was in Sunday’s final group at last year’s Scottish Open, so course fit is proven. Kirschner noted that Aberg continues to gain both off-the-tee and on approach—elite ball-striking that travels—while the recent missed cuts are mostly short-game driven. The Renaissance Club rewards driving and iron play more than scrambling, and calm weather should reduce around-the-green exposure. Kirschner trusts Aberg’s high ceiling if he sniffs the lead again and prefers betting the talent at a discounted number rather than chasing short PGA Tour favorites.

Matt Gannon backed Ludvig Aberg at 30-to-1, calling it a bet that will "work out for you" if made every week. Gannon noted that Aberg has posted his best four-event iron numbers of the 2025 season, gained strokes on approach in each start, and should have won this tournament last year before a brutal final-round collapse. Renaissance Club rewards bombers, and with this week’s dry forecast adding rollout, Aberg’s elite driver becomes an even bigger weapon. Gannon added that Aberg’s links comfort and ability to win with either the big stick or precise irons make the 30-1 number a clear buy in both outright and DFS pools.

Andy Lack flagged Ludvig Aberg as a futures and outright value before the FedEx Cup Playoffs. He argued Aberg’s recent metrics—top-20 in strokes gained off the tee over the last 24 rounds and trending positively in approach—suggest his results are lagging behind the underlying form. The Renaissance Club sets up perfectly for Aberg’s power-plus-putter profile, and Lack hinted at sprinkling an outright ticket this week while the market still hangs 45-1 or longer. More importantly, Lack expects Aberg to peak over the next six weeks when driver-heavy venues dominate the playoff rota, making him a timely purchase in one-and-done pools and season-long formats that still allow adds.

Patrick McDonald targeted Ludvig Aberg as a potentially discounted outright because casual bettors will remember last year’s Sunday implosion. Aberg held the 54-hole lead at this event in 2024 before an ugly final round, yet his elite driver-plus-irons combo still profiles perfectly for the 175-200-yard approach bucket emphasized at Renaissance. McDonald expects the oddsmakers to open Aberg longer than the other top-tier names, allowing bettors to grab a rising star with proven links comfort at a friendlier number. He plans to monitor the opening line and pounce if Aberg drifts after negative public sentiment.

Bo McBrayer slotted Ludvig Aberg near the top of his betting card at 25-to-1, arguing the Swede’s strengths align perfectly with TPC River Highlands. Short game liabilities are minimized here, and Aberg thrives in the core skills required: keep it in the fairway, flight a wedge, and convert birdies. McBrayer highlighted Aberg’s top-10 ranking in both Birdie or Better percentage and proximity from 100–150 yards over the last eight events. With no cut and a projected winning score north of −20, Bo expects Aberg’s elite tee-to-green play to generate 15+ looks inside 20 feet every round, making the 25-1 number “easy pickings” relative to the upside.

Eric Polzin doubled down on fading Ludvig Aberg, arguing the books and DraftKings algorithms refuse to correct for middling form. Aberg is only 44th in the field in Polzin’s recent-form metric, sits outside the top 60 in Good-Drive Percentage and Birdie-to-Bogey Ratio on short par-70s, yet commands a salary that implies true win equity. Ownership has not been low enough to justify leverage, and the 9-to-5 model shows him as nearly the worst play among the names priced $9K and above. Polzin will be completely off Aberg in DFS and will not touch outrights or T20 props, saying, “If he wins, I lose—data says that’s a bet I take every time.”

Eric Polzin advised fading Ludvig Aberg, arguing his salary and outright number are driven by "name value" rather than performance data. Aberg graded out as a neutral play even in his recent win and has been "terrible" since, including last week when he lost strokes across the board on approach and around the green. Polzin’s model again shows Aberg as a below-average fit for TPC River Highlands: mediocre Good-Drive Percentage and only 62nd in the field in Birdie-to-Bogey Ratio on short par-70s. In a no-cut event where price efficiency is critical, Polzin believes you’re paying a premium for ceiling that the stats don’t justify and will be underweight or completely off him in GPPs.

Gehman is leaning toward rostering Ludvig Aberg again despite his Friday fade at Oakmont (reportedly migraine-related). Aberg’s ball striking has been superb for three straight starts, and he gained 8.5 strokes tee-to-green at last year’s Travelers plus 4.5 the year before—rare experience for him to log a third professional trip to any venue. If the migraines prove a one-off, his driving accuracy and dialed wedges are an ideal fit for TPC River Highlands. Gehman expects ownership to be suppressed by the WD rumors and is ready to capitalize on the upside in GPP builds.

For the marquee 3-ball, Rouslin sides with Ludvig Aberg against Hideki Matsuyama and Adam Scott. Aberg’s driving accuracy should be a massive asset at Oakmont. Matsuyama enters nursing multiple injuries, and while Scott’s major experience is vast, Rouslin argues his ceiling no longer matches Aberg’s. Confidence rating: 11/13.

Dom Cintorino’s lone matchup bet is Ludvig Aberg +120 over Xander Schauffele. Dom already started his outright card with Aberg and sees the Swede’s 320-yard carry distance plus red-hot ball-striking as a superior fit to Oakmont’s bomb-and-gouge demands. He believes Xander’s steadier but shorter profile loses value when nearly everyone is missing fairways anyway. Getting plus money on a player he rates as having equal or better win equity made Aberg an easy side in the DraftKings H2H market.

Cintorino is beginning his outright card with Ludvig Aberg at 30-1. Aberg’s 320-yard firepower lets him attack Oakmont’s longer holes, and he gained nearly eight strokes ball-striking while finishing T13 in Canada last week. He was T12 in last year’s U.S. Open and actually held a share of the first-round lead, prompting Dom to sprinkle first-round-leader again. If the Swede keeps the driver humming, Dom believes he has true win equity in this setup.

Joe Champion said Ludvig Aberg is his best-bet to lift the trophy at Oakmont at +3500. Champion argued the Swede’s length and laser-straight driving are exactly what a 7,342-yard par-70 with brutal rough demands. Aberg’s tee-to-green numbers jumped off the page last season when he finished 2nd and 7th in two Masters starts and 12th at Pinehurst’s U.S. Open despite sporadic form elsewhere. He comes in off a 16th at the Memorial and a T13 in Canada where he closed 65-66 after spending Monday scouting Oakmont’s greens. Champion also pointed out that Aberg’s lone 2025 win came at Torrey Pines South—another U.S. Open venue—suggesting the 25-year-old’s ceiling spikes on demanding, long layouts. At more than double Jon Rahm’s odds, Champion believes the price already bakes in Aberg’s occasional inconsistency and presents the best value on the board.

Geoff Fienberg said bettors should exercise patience with Ludvig Aberg’s outright number. Pat Mayo’s model spit Aberg out whenever he filtered for "difficult courses," and Fienberg agrees Oakmont is a perfect fit after Aberg’s Genesis win at the equally punishing Torrey Pines. The problem is price, not profile. Aberg is floating around 28–29-to-1, but Fienberg thinks the public is far more likely to chase Scheffler, DeChambeau, Rory, and Morikawa than a 24-year-old who hasn’t sniffed a Sunday lead since February. "I see 28; I want more," he said, predicting the Swede’s odds will drift into the low-30s rather than crash toward 22-to-1. Because of that expected dip, Fienberg is willing to let the number "marinate" until late Tuesday or even Wednesday. If Aberg reaches 33-to-1 or longer, Fienberg will pounce; if the market somehow tightens, he will simply stay away. The takeaway: keep Aberg in DFS GPP pools, but do not lock in an outright ticket until the books hang a bigger number.

Kenny Kim locked Ludvig Aberg into his second DraftKings Cash-Game Cornerstone despite acknowledging the rookie can be "a little scary." Kim argued that cash line-ups need ceiling as much as floor at Oakmont because bonus points will be scarce. Aberg has already flashed major upside—T7 at Augusta and T12 at the PGA—even when his game was "not in full control." Kim also referenced Aberg’s elite long-iron output (+5.2 SG:APP at Memorial) and stout driving (315-yard average, 64 % fairways) as the ideal skill combo for Oakmont’s 175-plus-yard approach bias. With a $9K salary that still leaves room for Scheffler, Kim is willing to live with any short-game volatility and expects Aberg’s upside to separate him from other chalky 9K options in cash contests.

Kenny Kim jumped on Ludvig Aberg at 25-1 with 8-place each-way insurance, pointing out that books had him as short as 14-1 earlier in the major season. Kim noted Aberg delivered back-to-back top finishes, gaining in every strokes-gained category at Memorial except putting and gaining everywhere except around-the-green the following week. The iron play—in particular his 5.2 SG:APP at Muirfield—looks to be turning the corner while he continues to drive it long (315-yard average) and straight (64% fairways). Kim believes the ball-striking floor plus a suddenly friendly number make Aberg a must-bet outright before the market inevitably tightens to the teens again.

Byron Lindeque warned that Ludvig Aberg is a player to fade in outrights and limit in DFS cores for the U.S. Open. Lindeque noted that Aberg once again produced a “back-door” finish—three strong rounds followed by one poor round—underscoring his difficulty stringing together four consistent days. The bigger red flag is Aberg’s around-the-green performance; his short-game issues resurfaced last week and could be badly exposed by Oakmont’s penal greenside run-offs. Until Aberg cleans up the scrambling (ranked outside the top 90 in SG:ARG over the past two months), Lindeque plans to be underweight in both betting markets and DFS builds.

Rick Gehman called Ludvig Aberg a "splendid" core piece at $9,600 after five straight rounds gaining off-the-tee and on approach (4 at the Canadian Open, final-round 66 at Memorial). Gehman said this is the first time since early 2023 that Aberg’s trademark combo of 190-mph ball speed and laser irons have shown up simultaneously. In six career majors Aberg already owns three top-12 finishes, including T4 at Pinehurst—his only prior U.S. Open. Gehman’s skill-set overlay shows Oakmont rewarding carry distance and high launch, both Aberg strengths, and the Swede’s calm demeanor should mitigate the USGA grind. With clear win equity but a discounted price relative to Scheffler/Bryson/Rory, Gehman labeled Aberg a priority in both single-entry DFS and outright betting cards.

Pat Mayo cautioned listeners that Ludvig Aberg’s glowing fast-green numbers are built on a tiny sample and an unsustainable barrage of made bombs. Digging into Aberg’s 32 competitive rounds at Augusta, Memorial, Bay Hill and Riviera, Mayo found that 68% of his strokes gained putting came from makes outside 25 feet—including five putts over 40 feet at this year’s Masters. Historical baselines show players lose roughly 40-50% of that luck the very next month. Meanwhile, Aberg ranks only 114th in putts made from 4–8 feet, the exact range Oakmont will test after 48-foot lags. At 28-1 outright and low-9K on DraftKings, Mayo is passing on pre-tournament bets and keeping Aberg to a showdown-only sprinkle until we see proof the flat stick can hold up under U.S. Open pressure.

Alex Blickle said he will pull the trigger on Ludvig Aberg in DFS only if projected ownership falls to 10 percent or lower. Blickle argued Aberg’s fantasy value is entirely price-and-ownership sensitive right now: the Swede still flashes a top-5 ceiling—last week’s final-round heater proved he can flip the switch and finish third or better—but he has not yet reached the consistent superstar level books and models project. If the industry flocks to Corey Conners and Shane Lowry at 25 percent while Aberg languishes in single digits, he becomes the perfect leverage anchor in a non-Rory build. Anything north of roughly 15 percent and Blickle sees no edge, preferring to drop to lower-priced bombers like Robert MacIntyre or Taylor Pendrith to keep the lineup’s worst golfer far stronger than the average Rory roster.

Alex Blickle said the best value on Underdog this week is taking Ludvig Aberg to finish WORSE than 20.5. Books are still pricing Aberg like the superstar he could become, but Blickle reminded listeners the Swede has cracked the top-20 in only 4 of 12 starts this season, two of which were short-field signature events that inflate his hit rate. FTN’s simulations give Aberg just a 32 % chance to land inside the top-20 at the Canadian Open, meaning there’s roughly a 68 % probability the ‘worse than 20.5’ ticket cashes. Because Underdog lets you play the opposite side of a finishing-position prop—something most sportsbooks do not—Blickle is anchoring his pick’em cards with the Aberg fade and building plus-EV entries around it.

Shane Bacon placed Ludvig Aberg on his "can’t-win" list, emphasizing that the Swede has lost momentum since his Torrey Pines victory. Outside a back-door top-20 at the Memorial—fueled by a closing 66—Aberg has gained strokes approach in just one of his last five measured starts, and his normally trusty driver has slipped to barely field average during that span. Bacon dismissed last Sunday’s round as "not a sign" of a turnaround and argued that TPC Toronto’s penal rough will punish any errant tee shot. Given his recent shakiness and short outright number among the betting favorites, Bacon recommends fading Aberg in outright markets and anchoring match-ups against him.

Kenny Kim said he is fading the chalky Rory McIlroy in large-field GPPs and instead building line-ups around Ludvig Aberg at $10K. Kim expects Rory to approach 40–45 percent ownership, while Aberg should come in at roughly half that. He thinks the leverage is worth it because Aberg’s long-iron numbers are actually better than McIlroy’s, and the Swede pairs that with both length and accuracy off the tee—two traits Kim believes are mandatory at the 7,350-yard, long-par-4-heavy TPC Toronto. Kim added that Aberg flashed life with a strong Sunday finish last week, suggesting the approach play is trending back up. He is hedging by using Rory as his one-and-done pick in the Mayo Cup but will have Aberg in at least one of his two primary GPP builds to capture ceiling at reduced ownership.

Lindeque advised skipping Ludvig Aberg’s Top-20 market—where bettors are down nearly 20 units over the past year—and instead taking the +280 Top-5 ticket. His rationale: Aberg’s enormous driving and elite long-iron play give him true spike-week upside at a course featuring eight approaches of 200+ yards but little safety for middling finishes. Aberg flashed a return to form with a Sunday 68 (+3.4 SG: Approach) at the Memorial, and Lindeque believes the softer, wider TPC Toronto setup suppresses Aberg’s one weakness (scrambling). Because the Swede either contends or fades away, Lindeque sees the Top-5 number as the sharpest way to capture his ceiling while avoiding juice on a volatile Top-20.

Matt Every warned listeners not to chase Ludvig Aberg at 14-to-1, even though the Swede finally gained strokes in all three tee-to-green buckets at the Memorial. Every admitted TPC Toronto looks tailor-made for Aberg’s elite distance and mid-iron prowess, but pointed out that the public BTN model still slots him 56th this week—hardly the profile of a true favorite. With no PGA Tour win yet, Every doubts Aberg is ‘primed to win right now,’ especially on a brand-new track where variance is high. He would rather let others eat the short number and wait for a better price once the hype cools.

Pat Perry sees Ludvig Aberg as the best alternative to Rory at the top of the board. Aberg quietly gained roughly six strokes tee-to-green at the Memorial (T16) – his first week in the black for driving, approach and around-the-green since the Genesis – while remaining neutral with the putter. Perry thinks that renewed ball-striking plus Aberg’s elite distance sets up perfectly for TPC Toronto’s long par-3s and mid-iron heavy par-4s. With the course debuting and modelling uncertainty high, he views the 14-to-1 number as value and is comfortable taking outright and each-way positions.

Bo McBrayer will have "some action" on Ludvig Aberg at +1400, calling the Swede’s iron play too good to ignore on a classic second-shot layout like TPC Toronto. Aberg ranked top-5 in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 24 rounds and, despite a mediocre finish at the Memorial, produced several laser mid-irons that convinced McBrayer his ceiling is intact. With only two par-5s and six par-4s over 480 yards, Bo expects birdies to come from precise long-iron play—Aberg’s wheelhouse. The short-game slump of the past couple months is a concern, but McBrayer believes Aberg’s flush ball striking gives him more than enough win equity at 14-1.

Pat Mayo flagged Ludvig Aberg as a sneaky DFS and outright target after Aberg led the entire Memorial field in Round-4 strokes-gained tee-to-green despite finishing outside the top 20. Mayo loves that the Swede gained 3.2 strokes on approach Sunday and hit 15 of 18 greens under Bay Hill-level firmness, a blueprint that translates directly to next week’s U.S. Open where long-iron precision is mandatory. With sportsbooks still hanging mid-40s numbers and DraftKings pricing him in the mid-$7K range, Mayo views Aberg as the prototypical volatility play—elite ball striking, mediocre putting—that can spike on a tough setup. He encouraged listeners to lock in early before data-driven models catch up to Aberg’s Sunday surge.

Dom Cintorino plans to open his card with Ludvig Aberg at 14-1, arguing the Swede should be closer to 10-1 in this field. Aberg just gained 4.5 strokes on approach on his way to a T16 at Muirfield Village—his best iron week since winning Torrey Pines—and now heads to a par-70 where distance matters but the long-iron demands are softer than Quail Hollow or Memorial. With wide fairways, a projected winning score around 18-under, and only Rory priced shorter, Cintorino sees prime value in Aberg’s elite driver-plus-mid-iron combo and expects him to contend for his second PGA Tour title.

Gannon pegged Ludvig Aberg as his preferred high-priced anchor at $10,500. Aberg is coming off his best iron performance since winning at Torrey Pines and quietly back-doored a T20 at the Memorial, signaling momentum. Ownership is projected to be modest—"not overly giga-chalk"—making him a leverage play versus the popular Rory/Corey Connors builds. Gannon loves the combination of Aberg’s elite driving, trending approach play, and balanced floor/ceiling profile in a weak field where only a handful of golfers possess true win equity.

Rick Gehman advised fading Ludvig Aberg at TPC Toronto. Although Aberg flashed ceiling form with a Sunday 64 at the Memorial and thrives whenever ‘long and straight’ is the sole requirement, Gehman noted the larger sample remains shaky: Aberg has lost strokes putting in five of his last seven starts and continues to run cold with his irons outside isolated spikes at Torrey Pines and Augusta. Because this week’s winner must pair distance with hot wedges and a cooperative putter, Gehman wants to see two or three solid, all-around rounds before buying back in, warning that salary and ownership will outpace Aberg’s current floor.

Steve Bamford said Ludvig Aberg is primed to win at TPC Toronto and is worth a 3-point each-way bet at 14/1 (8 places, 1/5 odds). Bamford loves the fit between Aberg’s skill set and the new North Course: six par-4s between 481-530 yards plus two par-3s over 220 yards mean a steady diet of mid- to long-iron approaches, an area where Aberg excels. The par-70 routing begins and ends with reachable par-5s and features a driveable par-4, all of which reward his +310-yard carry distance. Wide 35-37 yard fairways mitigate Aberg’s occasional inaccuracy and let him unleash driver. Recent form backs it up—he closed the Memorial with a 66, ranking 3rd in Ball-Striking, 4th in Total Driving and 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green. The World No. 6 is comfortable on Bentgrass/Poa mixes, having already won the 2023 Omega European Masters (Bent/Poa) and the 2025 Genesis Invitational (pure Poa). Bamford added that Aberg’s pre-major rhythm last spring (finishes of 14-10-5-4 before Augusta) shows he likes to build momentum heading into big events, and capturing a first national open would add to his résumé.

Among the trio priced just behind Rory, Andy Lack said Ludvig Aberg is the only one he would consider at 16-1 to 20-1. The Swede averages 317 yards off the tee (7th on Tour) and is gaining a robust 0.38 strokes per round on 200-225-yard approaches, giving him separation tools Corey Connors and Shane Lowry lack. Aberg’s tee-to-green profile mirrors past winners at comparable flat, driver-heavy setups such as Craig Ranch and Vedanta. Lack conceded he may still pass on Aberg in outright markets because of the short number, but in match-ups and DFS he is firmly siding with the rookie over Connors and Lowry, projecting Aberg to gain over a stroke on the field per round off the tee alone.

Patrick McDonald warned bettors off Ludwig Aberg, noting the Swede added the Canadian Open only because his form has cratered. McDonald highlighted across-the-board regression: negative strokes gained in approach and off-the-tee in four of his last five non-major starts, short-game still middling, and putting trending down. Even the trademark driver that routinely touches 330 yards has been slipping, culminating in a poor driving performance at Valhalla. While Aberg’s talent keeps his ceiling high, McDonald sees no statistical evidence of an imminent bounce-back and will wait until the irons and driver turn before investing again.