Greg Peterson is willing to lay up to –117 on the Cardinals and likes the Under 8 when Erick Fedde faces Jose Quintana. Since returning from the KBO, Fedde’s Busch Stadium ERA is more than 1.5 runs better than his road mark, and Peterson trusts his ground-ball profile at home. Both starters are due for some ERA give-back—they sit at just 4.3 K/9—but Peterson prefers St. Louis’ on-base machines Brendan Donovan (.400 OBP) and Lars Nootbaar (.400 OBP) plus a still-patient Nolan Arenado (.360 OBP) against a Brewer lineup that has been feast-or-famine outside Bryce Turang and William Contreras. Christian Yelich’s modest .333 OBP and rookie Jackson Chourio’s chase-heavy approach are red flags. He expects both shaky bullpens (bottom-5 ERA) to stabilize slightly; Ryan Helsley gives the Cards a late-inning edge. With his model showing 8.4, Peterson leans under the flat 8 and sees value in St. Louis around –115.

Kenny G recommended backing the Brewers at –110 to halt their slide in St. Louis. Jose Quintana is 3-0 with a microscopic 0.96 ERA through three starts, and Milwaukee’s offense remains fifth in runs thanks to hot bats from Brice Turang and rookie Jackson Chourio. He expects them to scratch out enough against Eric Feedy, whose 3.33 ERA includes one blow-up outing. Both bullpens are shaky—Milwaukee carries a 5.13 ERA (third-worst) and St. Louis a 4.94 (bottom-six)—so Kenny cautioned he won’t count the ticket as a win until the final out, but he believes the better starter and urgent spot make Milwaukee the value side.

Backing the UNDER, the tout noted Milwaukee games are 15-11-2 to the low side and average 9.53 runs overall but only 8.00 in St. Louis. The Cardinals are 15-11-1 to the OVER on the year yet surrender just 2.85 runs per game at home. With Quintana (0.96 ERA) opposing Fedde and both offenses slumping—Milwaukee 4.96 runs per game season-long but less recently—the analyst expects the starters to neutralize scoring before either bullpen enters.

JD Bets grabbed the Brewers at -106 in what books list as a pick ’em. His spreadsheet leans clearly toward Milwaukee in every offensive and pitching metric. Cardinals starter Jose Quintana has produced just 13 strikeouts with opponents batting .333 against him, while Milwaukee’s projected arm sports a 1.02 WHIP and better swing-and-miss stuff. Neither offense strikes out much, so JD wants the club with the deeper lineup and sharper bullpen. He urged bettors to take the straightforward moneyline instead of a run-line or total, believing Milwaukee can edge St. Louis in a close, low-variance spot.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed Milwaukee on the money-line despite a four-game skid, leaning on a sparkling 1.178 OPS the current Brewers lineup owns over 74 at-bats versus Cards starter Erick Fedde. Milwaukee counters with Jose Quintana, who boasts a 0.96 ERA, and faces a St. Louis bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA after closer Ryan Helsley blew Saturday’s save. The tout believes the matchup advantage and the Cardinals’ unreliable relief corps give the Brewers a prime chance to salvage the series.

Chris Morgan built a Brewers stack to attack Erick Fedde, noting the veteran’s underlying 5.07 FIP, sub-1.00 K/BB ratio and history of never posting a FIP below 4.65 with Washington. He expects regression to hit Fedde hard. The stack: Jackson Chourio ($5,200), batting .280 with six homers and 10 doubles; Christian Yelich ($4,800), who sports an .891 OPS versus righties since 2023 and already has five homers and five steals; and Sal Frelick ($4,000), whose .384 OBP, two triples and seven steals can keep rallies alive. Morgan predicts Fedde’s command issues will set the table for Milwaukee’s combination of power and speed, giving this trio tournament-winning upside.

Data Skrive advised betting Over 8 runs, noting their 6-5 score projection (11 combined runs) clears the total by three. The Cardinals and Brewers combine to average 9.1 runs per game (St. Louis 3.9, Milwaukee 5.2). The Cardinals’ pitching has stumbled to a 4.29 ERA with only 6.1 K/9, while Milwaukee’s staff sits at 3.60 but has allowed eight homers in the last 10 contests. St. Louis games have cashed the over in five of the past 10, and the Brewers’ offense is powered by Jackson Chourio (six HR, 23 RBI) and Brice Turang’s .321 average. On the Cardinals’ side Lars Nootbaar is slashing .300 over his last five with a homer and six RBI. Warm spring conditions in St. Louis plus two bullpens that rank outside the top half in WHIP give further reason to expect runs.

Data Skrive projected St. Louis to win 6-5 and recommended laying the ‑110 moneyline with the Cardinals. Their model assigned St. Louis a 51% win probability, slightly above the 47.6% break-even implied by the price. St. Louis has thrived in the favorite role recently, going 3-0 as a moneyline favorite over its last three attempts and 4-4 overall when priced at ‑110 or shorter this season. Milwaukee, meanwhile, is just 3-11 as an underdog in 2025, including a 1-5 slide over the last 10 games. With the Brewers scoring 5.2 runs per game but pairing that with a 3.60 staff ERA, and the Cards owning a 4.29 ERA themselves, the edge comes from St. Louis’ higher-end bullpen pieces and home-field advantage at Busch Stadium. Bettors looking for a side are getting the slightly better team at effectively coin-flip odds.

Zola warned managers not to chase Jose Quintana’s sparkling 0.96 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 18 2⁄3 innings. Quintana has struck out only nine hitters, and an unsustainable .236 BABIP plus a 96.6% strand rate mask his true talent. Advanced metrics (4.23 xFIP, 4.73 SIERA) signal imminent regression, and Sunday’s opponent, St. Louis, can stack right-handed bats. Zola suggested looking elsewhere for a streamer rather than betting on Quintana’s smoke-and-mirrors start to continue.

Peterson bet Brewers-Cardinals Over 8. Jose Quintana’s surface numbers sparkle (0.96 ERA as a Brewer) but his 3.56 FIP and just 4.3 K/9 scream regression. Erick Fedde is walking 4.7 per nine with a 5.07 FIP behind his 3.33 ERA. Both bullpens sit bottom-five in ERA (MIL 5.06, STL 4.97). His model landed at 8.4, enough edge to play the over.

Dimon recommended Milwaukee at –106 on the moneyline (Bet365), arguing that Jose Quintana’s reunion with the Cardinals should be painful for St. Louis. Quintana is 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 1.02 WHIP through his first three Brewers starts and has allowed only three runs in 14 innings against his former club since leaving in 2022. On the other side, St. Louis turns to Erik Fedde, and Milwaukee’s lineup owns him: Rhys Hoskins is 9-for-31 with three homers, William Contreras 7-for-11 with two homers, Christian Yelich 6-for-13 with two doubles, and both Sal Frelick and Joey Ortiz are 3-for-5. The Cardinals have dropped each of Fedde’s last four outings. Even after losing the first two games of the series, Dimon expects the Brewers to snap that skid and cash the ML ticket.

Data Skrive highlighted Lars Nootbaar as the Cardinals’ top power threat and a strong DFS play on Sunday. He leads the club with four homers and 17 RBI and has hits in two straight, batting .300 over his last five with a double, a homer, five walks and six RBI. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has coughed up eight long balls across its last 10 games, and this matchup will be in hitter-friendly afternoon conditions at Busch Stadium. With a modest salary on most DFS sites and multi-category upside (power plus OBP from those walks), Nootbaar profiles as a cost-efficient outfield option in both cash games and GPPs.

Greg Peterson advised grabbing the Cardinals’ run line at +140 with Sonny Gray opposite Quinn Priester. Peterson pointed out Priester’s shaky 5.8 walks per nine and modest 7.1 K/9, predicting the free passes will turn into crooked numbers against a St. Louis lineup that finally has Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado and Jordan Walker stringing hits together. Gray owns a home ERA roughly two full runs lower than his road mark since joining the Cards and draws a Milwaukee order that still leans on Christian Yelich and a collection of sub-.220 bats at the bottom. Both bullpens rank bottom-six in ERA, so Peterson prefers the full-game angle and also played the over 7.5 after making the total 8.2. But the flagship play is St. Louis -1.5 at anything +130 or better.

Kenny G also singled out the No-Run First Inning (NRFI) as a strong angle in Brewers-Cardinals. He trusts Sonny Gray to navigate the top of Milwaukee’s order—Christian Yelich is the only Brewer swinging it well—and believes Quinn Priester’s sharp two-start sample (1.93 ERA) can get through Donovan, Nootbaar and Goldschmidt once before fatigue sets in. Neither lineup is ‘mashing’ early; St. Louis scores in the first in just 22 % of games while Milwaukee’s first-inning run rate is 19 %. Add in chilly evening temps at Busch and both pens ready if either starter falters, and Kenny expects a sweat-free NRFI at roughly –125.

Kenny G advised laying the –160 with St. Louis behind Sonny Gray. Gray is 3-0 with a 3.41 ERA, has dominated in four of five starts (including 6 shutout frames vs Houston), and gets a Milwaukee lineup that has produced just 2, 5, 2, 11 and 2 runs its last five while falling to 23rd in slugging. The Brewers counter with rookie Quinn Priester (1.93 ERA) but he rarely works deep, handing games to a bullpen that owns a brutal 5.13 ERA. Offensively the Cardinals are eighth in runs, second in batting average and sixth in slugging (.400+), and they are 8-4 at Busch Stadium compared to Milwaukee’s 4-9 road mark. With the superior starter, hotter bats and home-field advantage, Kenny considers the Cardinals ML a “relatively live” play that should cash more often than the –160 price suggests.

Calling Wednesday his favorite play, Mayer advised grabbing Tobias Myers fresh off the IL because he draws the White Sox, a team with the worst wRC+ (76) and ISO (.121) against right-handed pitching. Myers posted a 3.14 ERA and 1.02 WHIP last season and carried those skills through rehab, logging 14 strikeouts in 10 innings. Mayer likes the combination of a pitcher with above-average command (6 percent BB-rate) and a terrible opponent, predicting 5–6 innings, 5+ Ks, and good odds at a win for stream-hungry managers.

Brice Turang owns a 4-for-9 (.444) track record versus Jon Gray and has produced a hit in 20 of his last 23 contests. The tout called him a value piece for single-hit markets or DFS salary relief.

Willson Contreras (listed as "Willing Petreras" in the transcript) is 2-for-6 (.333) against Jon Gray, and he’s hit safely in 15 of his last 16 games. The tout recommended him for single-hit props or low-risk parlays.

Christian Yelich is 2-for-3 (.667) in a tiny sample against Jon Gray and has hits in 7 of his last 9 outings. The tout flagged him as a plus-EV play for a simple hit line if books hang anything shorter than –200.

The tout pointed to Paul Goldschmidt’s 4-for-8 (.500) career line against Kevin Gausman and his current tear—hits in 17 of 19 games—as reasons to back Goldy for at least one hit or to clear his 1.5 total bases prop on Saturday.

At just $3,200 — down $1,100 from his April peak — Willson Contreras is Marcus’s favorite salary-saving one-off. Contreras still owns a 50% hard-hit rate and a .196 ISO despite the quiet start, and he continues to bat second, guaranteeing plate appearances. He faces Quinn Priester, who has more walks (9) than strikeouts (11) and has yet to complete five innings in any start. Marcus sees 10+ DK points as a realistic expectation with homer upside.

Marcus recommended Sonny Gray ($9,300) for those chasing ceiling over floor. Gray’s 29.6% K rate tops the realistic spend-ups on the slate, and his underlying Stuff+ has jumped nine points year over year. The surface stats lag because of an unlucky .358 BABIP, but the underlying 2.86 SIERA suggests positive regression. Milwaukee is the most targetable opponent on the board, striking out at a league-high 27.5% clip versus right-handers and sitting 28th in ISO. Gray should face 6+ lefties, against whom he wields a career 30% K rate thanks to his sweeper. Marcus views him as the slate’s highest raw-ceiling arm.

Peterson bet OVER 7.5 (model 8.2). Sonny Gray’s surface numbers (3-0, 3.41 ERA) mask a 3.88 FIP and 1.6 HR/9, while Quinn Priester’s shiny 1.93 ERA is endangered by 5.8 BB/9, just 7.1 K/9 and a 4.30 FIP. Both bullpens are bottom-five (Brewers 5.28 ERA; Cards 5.11), so he expects mid-game fireworks once the starters exit.

Lonte Smith is betting MILWAUKEE and likes the OVER 7.5 as well. He highlighted Priester’s run of three straight 2-ER outings and believes his only real flaw is occasional walks. St. Louis draws plenty of free passes, which could inflate the total. On the other side, Sonny Gray has not shown the dominance implied by a –160 tag, and Lonte does not trust the Cardinals bullpen if the game is close late. He plans to play the Brewers each game this series as long as they remain underdog pricing.

Scott Reichel refuses to lay –160 with St. Louis, calling Milwaukee the better overall team. Rookie Quinn Priester owns a 1.93 ERA but gets dinged for not working deep; Scott concedes Milwaukee’s bullpen is shaky yet still prefers it to the Cardinals’ relief corps. Sonny Gray has been solid (3-0, 3.41 ERA) but not dominant enough to justify a price that large. Busch Stadium success (8-4 home record) is the only thing propping up the number, and Reichel doubts the Cards are even a .500 club long-term. He’s on BREWERS +135 and would play them down to +120.

Halterman recommended adding Caleb Durbin as a more well-rounded version of Chandler Simpson. Recalled Friday after the Brewers manipulated his service time, Durbin faces minimal playing-time competition (Oliver Dunn, Vinnie Capra, Isaac Collins). Through his first six MLB games he owns a .261 average with a homer, a steal, and—importantly—zero strikeouts. In the minors he’s run three straight 30-plus steal seasons while never striking out more than 9 % of the time and already has two homers down there this year. Halterman believes Durbin can provide batting average, 20-plus SB pace, and at least low-double-digit home-run upside—ideal for roto managers needing speed without a power zero.

Despite gaudy season-long run averages, he went under the posted total. Brewers games average 11.34 runs on the road, yet Liberatore’s presence and Busch Stadium’s 2.92 runs-allowed profile for the Cards slash that number almost in half. St. Louis allows just 2.92 runs per game at home, and the Brewers’ bat-to-ball numbers crater against left-handed pitching. With the Cards’ own offense league-average and bullpen rested, the tout expects a tighter 4-3 type divisional opener.

He grabbed St. Louis on the money line. The Cardinals are 8-4 at Busch versus 2-11 on the road, while Milwaukee flies in from San Francisco on no rest and likely leans on a stretched bullpen after rookie Tobias Myers’ Thursday debut. Southpaw Matthew Liberatore has logged 6+ innings in all four starts and has limited Milwaukee to 2 ER over 17.2 IP since 2022. The Brewers own just a .637 team OPS against lefties, making this an attractive spot for the rested home side.

Kenny G labeled Milwaukee +110 as a potential "dog of the day," arguing oddsmakers are overrating a slumping Cardinals club. He praised Brewers rookie Chad Patrick (2.11 ERA, zero walks and no more than two earned runs in any of five starts) and noted Milwaukee’s offense still sits 5th in MLB scoring despite a quiet series in San Francisco. By contrast, St. Louis has fallen to 8th in runs after scoring 1-10-6-4-1 in its last five and now sports the sixth-worst bullpen ERA (5.11) after an early-season spike. While Kenny concedes Milwaukee’s relievers are shaky (5.24 ERA) he thinks Patrick can work deep enough to shorten that exposure, and he trusts hot bats like Bryce Turang and Christian Yelich against Matthew Liberatore, who has allowed seven hits or more in two of three outings. Given the Brewers’ undervalued price, the starting-pitching edge, and the Cardinals’ swoon, Kenny is happy to back Milwaukee at any plus number.

Lindquist took Milwaukee on the money line at plus money, arguing that Matthew Liberatore’s contact profile (13.4° average launch angle, dwindling ground-ball rate) makes the Cardinals vulnerable despite Chad Patrick’s own fly-ball tendencies. St. Louis is still missing several regulars – Wilson Contreras is out, backup Pedro Pages looms behind the plate, and Lars Nootbaar remains banged up – which leaves a watered-down order that struggles to capitalize on Patrick’s mistakes. Neither bullpen inspires confidence, but Lindquist believes a healthier Milwaukee lineup and Liberatore’s deteriorating batted-ball mix tilt the nine-inning edge toward the Brewers enough to justify the dog price.

Todd Zola advised streaming Matthew Liberatore, noting the left-hander’s 24 K / 2 BB line through 25 innings and a strike rate that has jumped to 67.3% from a career 63.2%. Liberatore has delivered at least six frames in all four starts with three quality starts despite no velocity bump, thanks largely to trading some sinkers for changeups and relentlessly pounding the zone. He draws a Brewers lineup that owns a below-average walk rate, giving the southpaw an ideal opportunity to extend his breakout.