Kenny G sided with Detroit at even money (+100), calling the Tigers the better club in every phase right now. Rookie Jackson Jobe is 3-0 despite a 4.32 ERA, and Kenny believes the underlying stuff is electric— 7 K in 5.2 IP versus Boston last week— with walk issues (5 BB) the only red flag. He trusts the league’s 5th-best bullpen (2.98 ERA) to cover any early exit. Offensively, Detroit ranks 4th in runs, 5th in batting average, 6th in OBP (.334) and top-5 in slugging, a stark contrast to Toronto’s 22nd-place run production. Jose Berrios owns a 4.33 ERA and has issued 15 walks in his last five outings; Kenny expects the patient Tigers lineup to exploit that control trouble. Toronto’s pen (3.88 ERA) sits in the bottom half and has blown four saves in the past two weeks. With Detroit 13-10 on the road and 16-7 to the over in those games, Kenny projects enough run support for Jobe and sees plus money as a “must-play” unless Sunday weirdness convinces you to fade him.

It's The Final Round likes Kerry Carpenter as a value dart: he’s 2-for-3 with a homer (.667) off Jose Berrios and has hits in four of his last five games, making him a sneaky total bases or HR prop sprinkle.

Servodidio advised taking Over 8.5 runs (-108) and Over 4.5 runs in the first five innings (-118) for Sunday’s Tigers-Blue Jays matchup. He pointed to both lineups demolishing right-handed pitching: Toronto has averaged 6.0 runs per game over its last eight and, in the past two weeks, leads MLB with a .373 wOBA, 144 wRC+, .300 AVG and .197 ISO against righties. Detroit isn’t far behind, posting a season-long .335 wOBA and 118 wRC+ vs RHP and an even better .368 wOBA, 141 wRC+ and .208 ISO the last two weeks. The pitching matchup also leans to offense: rookie Jackson Jobe has a 4.32 ERA overall but a 6.11 ERA and 5.71 FIP on the road with a 13.5% walk rate, while Jose Berrios owns a 5.65 ERA at Rogers Centre with a 4.97 FIP, 4.87 xERA, 10.8% walk rate and 11.5% barrel rate. Historical trends back it up—the over has cashed in 14 of Detroit’s last 18 games and the Jays are 11-2 to the over in the past two weeks—so Servodidio expects a shootout after Saturday’s 2-1 outlier.

Mac Douglass endorsed taking the Blue Jays at +1.5 runs (-190) against Detroit after Dimers’ predictive model spit out a 68.4% win probability and a 2.9% long-term edge over the listed price. The pick is built on thousands of Monte Carlo simulations that factor in projected starting-pitcher matchups, bullpen usage, park factors at Rogers Centre, and each lineup’s weighted on-base averages versus right-handed pitching. Because the Tigers’ offense ranks bottom-five in runs per game on the road and Toronto’s pen owns the fifth-best ERA in May, the model expects a tight, low-scoring game where the extra run and a half becomes highly valuable. Douglass labeled it the highest-probability play on Sunday’s slate and a cornerstone wager for bettors seeking safe bankroll growth.

Morgan pinpointed Carpenter ($4,500) as a bargain bat because the Detroit slugger owns a .515 career SLG (.554 last three seasons) against right-handed pitching. He now faces Jose Berrios, who is sitting on a 4.97 FIP and 1.56 HR/9 in 2025. Morgan notes Comerica’s new shortened fences and Berrios’ declining four-seamer velocity as reasons Carpenter could leave the yard at a sub-$5K salary.

Morgan likes Riley Greene as a mid-tier bat at $3.4k after the outfielder put up a 1.133 OPS and eight of his 11 home runs over the past three weeks. He’ll see Jose Berrios, who owns a 5.65 ERA at Rogers Centre and has allowed a .277 batting average to left-handed hitters this season.

Morgan suggested riding Riley Greene’s hot streak—1.133 OPS over the last three weeks with eight of his 11 homers in that span. Jose Berrios has struggled at Rogers Centre (5.65 home ERA) and is allowing a .277 average to left-handed bats this season. Greene’s $3,400 tag provides mid-tier power at a friendly park against a pitcher who can’t keep the ball in the yard at home.

Brad Francis backed the Tigers on the money line, noting Detroit has cashed 12 straight games when listed as a favorite against AL East opponents. He argued the Tigers are “better everywhere” based on season-long metrics and pointed to a clear pitching edge with Jack Flaherty (29.4% K-rate, 1.06 WHIP) squaring off against Bowden Francis, who rarely works past the fifth inning. Given the matchup and Detroit’s current offensive form coming out of Boston, Francis labeled the Tigers the play.

Mark Zinno advised taking the Tigers on the money-line tonight in Detroit, arguing that the starting-pitching matchup finally tilts in their favor. Zinno rattled off a laundry list of ugly underlying numbers for Toronto’s spot starter Bowden Francis – a .311 xBA (bottom 5% of MLB), .383 xwOBA (bottom 5%), bottom-5 hard-hit rate and an xERA north of 6.0. By contrast, Zinno noted that Jack Flaherty, while sporting a 5.57 road ERA and allowing at least four earned in three straight, is still the more talented arm and is overdue for positive regression after Detroit has dropped six consecutive Flaherty starts. He also highlighted a rest advantage (Tigers were idle Thursday while the Jays played) that often shows up on Friday slates. Zinno’s bottom line: fade Francis’s awful peripherals and back Flaherty to bounce back with a rested Detroit lineup.

Francis bet Bowden Francis under 4.5 strikeouts. The right-hander has stayed below that number in three of his last five starts and averages just 73 pitches per outing. Detroit’s offense, fresh off a productive series in Boston, owns the seventh-lowest K-rate versus right-handed pitching (19.4%). With the Tigers making consistent contact and Toronto likely to keep Bowden Francis on a short leash, Brad expects four punch-outs or fewer.

Lonte Smith is stacking Tigers –130 with the Over 8.5 at even money. He cited Bowden Francis’ brutal recent stretch – 2-3 with a 6.50 ERA over his last five, six-plus hits allowed in four straight – running into a Detroit lineup batting nearly .300 over its last 10 and scoring eight runs per nine in that span. While Jack Flaherty has struggled himself (five straight losses, ERA north of six, eight homers surrendered in five starts), Smith expects moderate improvement against a Jays offense he still deems "inconsistent" despite winning five of six. Both clubs are 9-1 to the over in their last 10, and Detroit already owns one of MLB’s best road OPS figures. With two shaky starters and red-hot bats, Smith projects something like a 6-4 Tigers win and is happy to pocket plus money on the total along with the Detroit side.

Scott Reichel grabbed Detroit at –130, calling the Tigers “simply the better team” while labeling Toronto a .500 club for good reason. He acknowledged neither starter has dazzled (Jack Flaherty 1-5, 4.61 ERA; Bowden Francis 2-5, 5.40 ERA) but trusts Detroit’s balanced lineup that’s raced to a 29-15 record and owns his current pick to win the AL. Reichel stressed that Toronto’s sweep of Seattle was more about the Mariners’ inconsistency than any Jays surge and sees Detroit’s deeper lineup and superior bullpen making –130 a bargain.

The tout also liked the full-game Over 8.5. Detroit squares off with Bowden Francis (6.52 home ERA) while Jack Flaherty sits at 5.57 away. Detroit has gone over in four of its last five, averaging 10+ runs in that stretch, and Toronto has cleared the total in three of its last five thanks to pitching woes. Detroit is batting .286 with runners in scoring position and Toronto hits .254 at Rogers Centre. Historical matchups between similar lineups have routinely topped the same number, so the tout expects another shoot-out.

Kenny G circled the OVER 8.5 runs in Tigers-Blue Jays as a bet-worthy spot. Both starters are in poor form: Jack Flaherty is 1-5 with a 4.61 ERA and has allowed at least four earned in three straight, while Bowden Francis sits at 5.40 and has surrendered three-plus earned in four consecutive starts, including a seven-spot versus Boston. Toronto’s bullpen is mediocre (4.07 ERA) and Detroit’s elite 2.86 mark may not matter early if Flaherty implodes again. Offensively, Detroit has exploded from last year’s doldrums to rank second in MLB in runs, fifth in average and sixth in OBP, plating 6, 10 and 14 runs in its last three. The Jays have been inconsistent but still carry a 22-point jump in OPS at home and are 12-9 to the OVER in Toronto. Road/home splits for both clubs are over-friendly (Tigers 15-7, Jays 12-9). Given two hittable arms, a retractable-roof hitter’s park and surging Detroit bats, Kenny expects a slugfest and prefers the total to a side, though he did give a slight lean to the Tigers’ moneyline.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Detroit to win and cover the run-line in Toronto. The Tigers sit at 29-15, have won eight of their last ten overall, and are 7-1 in their last eight road games. Offensively they rank second in MLB scoring and carry a .262 road batting average. They draw Bowden Francis and his ugly 6.52 home ERA, a matchup Detroit is expected to exploit. Against the number, Detroit has covered 59% of all games and 70% when listed as an away favorite, while Toronto has covered only 50% of its games as a home dog. Detroit is also on a three-game winning streak and covers 70% of division contests. All of that convinced the tout the Tigers are the sharper side.

Eric Lindquist advised taking the Detroit Tigers first-five-innings moneyline on Friday against Toronto. He argued that Jack Flaherty is "the better pitcher of the two" compared with Bowden Francis, citing Flaherty’s improved command and reduced hard contact. Francis, meanwhile, is "giving up high, far contact," a problem against Detroit’s lefty power core of Kerry Carpenter (52% hard-hit rate), the recently returned Riley Greene, and the resurgent Spencer Torkelson. Lindquist also referenced Javier Baez’s recent "renaissance" as further lineup depth. Because Toronto’s bullpen grades out better than Detroit’s, Lindquist prefers isolating the starting-pitching edge in the first-five market. He is comfortable playing the Tigers at plus money and would still lay up to –115 if overnight steam shortens the price.

Rob Donaldson sprinkled one unit on Colt Keith to go deep at +550. He acknowledged Keith’s swing-and-miss volatility but pointed out a 46% hard-hit rate and occasional laser line drives that threaten the second deck. Bowden Francis has yielded nine barrels in just 10.1 innings, and Rogers Centre ranks 7th in left-handed HR factor. Rob views Keith as a low-risk, high-return flier whose upside is amplified if Francis struggles to land his secondaries early.

Rob Donaldson invested three units in Kerry Carpenter over 1.5 total bases. He labeled Bowden Francis a ‘quad-A arm’ whose four-seamer has been tagged for a .311 xBA and 54% hard-hit rate. After spending two weeks in cavernous Comerica, Carpenter’s 48% pull-fly profile should thrive in the Rogers Centre with the roof open and temps near 70. Rob noted Carpenter’s season-long .275 ISO versus right-handers and believes books shaded the total-bases line because the HR prop is already juiced to under +300.

Detroit opened –135 even though Jack Flaherty sits 1-5 with a 4.61 ERA. Data Skrive’s sim has the Tigers 55% to win (5-4 scoreline) because the underlying numbers tell a different story: Flaherty’s 3.22 xERA, 31% strikeout rate, and .280 expected wOBA allowed rank top-15 among qualified starters. Toronto counters with Bowden Francis, whose 5.40 ERA is backed up by a 6.01 xERA and a 46% hard-hit rate. The Tigers are 29-15 overall and 17-5 at Rogers Centre dating to 2023, while the Jays limp in at 21-22 with the league’s 27th-ranked offense versus right-hand pitching (86 wRC+). The model likes the Tigers to grind out another low-scoring win and recommends the moneyline up to –140.

Calling Jack Flaherty’s 2024 resurgence a mirage, Savio is fading the right-hander by taking Blue Jays ML at ‑140. Flaherty owns a 1-5 record, 4.61 ERA, and only one quality start in 2025; he is 0-2 with a 9.35 ERA in two May outings and was rocked for a 7.36 ERA in last year’s postseason. Meanwhile Toronto’s offense has caught fire, slashing .309 with a .512 slugging percentage over the past week and winning five of seven. Savio believes Flaherty’s diminished stuff will be exposed again by a red-hot Jays lineup, making Toronto the play despite the juiced price.

Bennett labeled Riley Greene a "sure play" at $3,300 because Bowden Francis is coughing up a .429 wOBA to lefties in Toronto. Greene already sports a .394 wOBA against right-handed pitching, setting the table for a salary-baseball-friendly upside path. Javier Baez ($2,900) can be tacked on for differentiation, but Greene is the core piece.