Scott Reichel called FanDuel’s 8.5 total “crazy” given two punch-out arms and anemic lineups. Shane Baz owns a 2.45 ERA and double-digit strikeout rate outside of one hiccup versus the Yankees, and he is backed by a top-five Rays bullpen. On the other side, Seth Lugo’s strikeouts are down and his road ERA sits above 3.00, yet Kansas City ranks dead last in road scoring at just 2.71 runs per game. Tropicana Field has played slightly hitter-friendly early, but Reichel projects a 4-1 or 5-1 Rays win and prefers the full-game under to a side at current prices.

Lindquist leaned to the under 8.5 total in Kansas City–Tampa Bay. He praised Seth Lugo’s growing strike-out arsenal (8 K versus Houston) and Shane Baz’s established swing-and-miss profile. Despite a park that can play small in the afternoon and Tampa’s left-handed depth, the combination of two quality starters and a May afternoon in moderate temperatures makes him see value on a lower-scoring game—though he is trimming back morning volume and may wait for final wind reports before firing.

With Seth Lugo opposing Taj Bradley (transcript said Baz) Mark prices Tampa closer to –180, calling the posted –154 cheap. Kansas City has won four of its last five but the Rays are equally 3-2 and in desperate need of a get-right game at home. Because of bullpen concerns he prefers a first-five moneyline push, expecting Tampa’s higher strikeout arm to neutralize the Royals and end the mini-slide in a classic zig-zag spot.

Kenny G leaned toward yet another under in Royals-Rays after cashing the first two games of the series and seeing bookmakers drop Thursday’s total to 8/8.5. He praised both starters—Shane Baz has opened 2025 at 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA and just blanked San Diego over seven frames, while Seth Lugo is fresh off eight shutout innings versus Houston and owns a 3.08 ERA—but acknowledged potential Lugo fatigue after the 110-pitch effort. Even if Lugo tires, Kansas City’s 3.28 bullpen ERA offers cover. Offensively, neither club scares him: the Royals rank tied for 29th in runs and have scored three or fewer in five of their last seven, and Tampa Bay is 18th in runs despite a top-10 batting average, plating four or fewer in five of six. With both teams trending 19-10-1 and 16-11-2 to the under respectively, Kenny sees value playing under 8.5 rather than picking a side.

Cash Out Sports Picks took the Under because both clubs are bottom-half offenses yet top-10 in team ERA. The Rays had played four straight unders entering Wednesday, while Kansas City had cashed the under in three of four. Kauffman-trained Royals have little power, and Lugo’s ground-ball profile plus Baz’s swing-and-miss stuff should keep the ball in the park. With Tropicana replaced by a spring-training venue that still yielded sub-offensive totals all week, the tout projects another low-scoring matinee to end the set.

Erik Halterman recommended buying Salvador Perez before tired managers dump him for pennies because of a .224 AVG and only two homers. Statcast paints a completely different hitter: .304 xBA and .589 xSLG (fifth-best in MLB). His strikeout rate is a palatable 21%, actually one point better than last season and three points below his 2019-22 average. The 17% barrel rate is his best of the Statcast era. Despite turning 35 in two weeks, Perez remains a volume monster—tied for second in plate appearances among catcher-eligible players, only behind Cal Raleigh. Kansas City clearly still treats him like a middle-of-the-order stalwart, so fantasy managers should too. Halterman’s takeaway: ignore the surface slump, trust the elite batted-ball data and workload, and trade for an aging catcher whose skills have not really aged at all.

Cash Out Sports Picks endorsed the Rays money-line because Shane Baz has led Tampa to wins in four of his five starts and is striking out more hitters while allowing fewer hits per nine than Seth Lugo. Lugo has already surrendered six home runs, a concern in the hitter-friendly temporary home at the Yankees’ spring facility. Kansas City’s lineup is ill-equipped to keep pace, ranking last in MLB in homers and runs and second-to-last in slugging. With playoff implications looming, the tout trusts Tampa’s superior arm and situational hitting to secure the series.

Guy Boston wants to attack Kansas City’s team total UNDER (3.5 full-game or 1.5 first five) against Drew Rasmussen. Rasmussen owns a 0.90 WHIP overall and has been even nastier at the Trop (0.56 WHIP, .167 BAA). His fastball/cutter/sinker mix lines up poorly for a Royals offense that is bottom-10 against all three pitches by run value. Tampa Bay’s bullpen is rested after two light days, giving Boston confidence in a full-game play. He downplayed concern over rookie left-hander Noah Cameron debuting for KC by noting the bet isolates Rasmussen’s dominance rather than Tampa’s shaky splits versus southpaws.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended Tampa Bay on the moneyline. Drew Rasmussen owns a sparkling 2.10 ERA and had allowed just two total runs over his previous four starts before a hiccup last time out. Kansas City has failed to score more than three runs in any of its last three games and has not even named a starter, implying a bullpen day. The Rays have won six of seven and are trending up, while the Royals’ patchwork pitching strategy rarely succeeds against a hot opponent.

Malcolm Bamford said he is betting Tampa Bay on the money-line, projecting them as the rightful favorite despite the market still hanging pick-ems in some spots. Bamford pointed to Cole Ragans’ abrupt loss of command—nine earned runs and five walks over his last two turns—as the main reason to fade Kansas City. Ragans has never been a high-walk arm, so Bamford sees the sudden wildness as a red flag that something is off mechanically. Conversely, Drew Rasmussen has been lights-out at Steinbrenner Field, holding opponents below a .200 average with a 30% strike-out rate in the spring-training park the Rays are using while Tropicana is renovated. With Tampa riding a five-game winning streak that included a road sweep in San Diego and boasting a top-five bullpen, Bamford believes the Rays can survive a low-scoring game or win a bullpen battle. He will lay up to –125 on Tampa and would sprinkle the run line if Ragans’ issues persist early.

Dylan Rockford plans to bet Kansas City once lines open—assuming Cole Ragans gets the nod. He likes the matchup because Tampa Bay ranks near the bottom of MLB in wOBA against left-handed pitching, while Ragans remains one of the league’s nastier southpaws when healthy. Drew Rasmussen has been solid for the Rays, so Rockford expects a low-scoring game overall and would also consider a first-five under if the full-game number opens too low. Bottom line: if Ragans is confirmed and you can grab KC at plus money, Rockford believes the market is underrating the split edge.

Kenny G grabbed under 9, saying neither club has the firepower to push this into double digits. Kansas City still ranks 29th in runs and has topped three runs only twice in its last six games despite Bobby Witt Jr.’s 20-game hitting streak. Tampa Bay is trending up but remains just 17th in runs, posting 1, 4, 4, 1, 7, 7 across the past six. He expects rookie Noah Cameron’s MLB debut to be rocky in spots but not a blow-up, citing the Royals’ suddenly stout bullpen (3.38 ERA) ready to cover early. On the other side Drew Rasmussen owns a 2.10 ERA and draws a soft bounce-back after a four-run outing in Arizona, with a Rays pen that is 5th in ERA (3.02) protecting him. With both teams 19-plus to the under and neither relief corps prone to late meltdowns, Kenny called under 9 "a very good play" that could land in his pinned comment.

Joe Pisapia called Cole Ragans a rare chance to acquire an ace during the season. His surface 4.40 ERA hides elite indicators: 2.45 xERA, 2.74 FIP, 2.55 xFIP and a 36 % strikeout rate paired with a career-best walk clip. Ragans has tinkered with a new knuckle-curve while the slider, change and four-seam all post higher whiff rates than 2024. A minor groin tweak might cost him one start, creating the perfect buying window. Pisapia recommended packaging a mid-tier bat plus a back-end starter to pry him loose before he repeats last year’s second-half dominance.

Ron recommended Rays ML (and potentially –1.5) because Drew Rasmussen has dominated at Steinbrenner Field: 15.2 IP, one run, 18 Ks, zero homers. Kansas City hasn’t announced a starter and ranks near the bottom of MLB against right-handed pitching, so Romanelli expects Tampa to cruise.