Kenny G called Yankees ‑170 his potential 'massive lock of the day'. Max Fried is 6-0 with a microscopic 1.11 ERA and New York is unbeaten in his starts. The Yanks back him with the league’s No. 3 scoring offense, ranking first in OBP and second in SLG while Aaron Judge is still hitting over .400 with 15 homers. Kenny also trusts a 3.43 bullpen ERA to hold any late lead. On the other side, David Peterson’s 3.05 ERA is solid but the Mets’ lineup has cooled to 11th in runs and 12th in average, and Juan Soto remains quiet in this Subway Series. New York’s pen (2.93) is elite, yet Kenny doubts the Mets can generate enough offense against Fried’s form. With both clubs trending under (combined 27-19-1 to the under in their respective home/road splits), Kenny leaned away from the 8.5 total and instead laid the moneyline juice, confident the Bombers will not drop back-to-back games with their ace on the hill.

It's The Final Round said Aaron Judge is a prime play for a hits-based wager Sunday against David Peterson. The tout highlighted Peterson’s poor command of both his four-seam (29% usage, .303 AVG, 2 HR in 33 AB) and sinker (.310 AVG, 1 HR in 21 AB), noting Judge already parked the sinker for a homer the only time he saw it this season. Even though the sample versus lefties is smaller, Judge owns a 40.9% sweet-spot launch-angle rate that ranks 26th of 255 qualifiers, while Peterson allows a 30.5% sweet-spot rate. Judge has collected at least one hit in 38 of 45 games and is ‘due’ after going 0-for-2 against Peterson earlier this year. The analyst plans to include Judge in a hits parlay or single-prop ticket.

B Wade juiced Aaron Judge’s Hits+Runs+RBIs line up to over 3.5 to swing the slip payout to 5.8x. Judge is obliterating left-handed pitching this season, slashing .480 with six homers in just 25 at-bats—roughly a bomb every four trips. Saturday was one of only seven hitless games for him all year, and he has avoided back-to-back zeros entirely in 2025. In his last three starts against left-handed starters he posted 6, 7, and 7 HRR totals with a homer in each. Wade expects another immediate bounce-back and labeled the over a ceiling-chasing play.

Peterson bet Under 8.5, handicapping the total at 7.8. Yankees ace Max Fried has been almost untouchable, rocking a 1.11 ERA and 0.5 HR/9, while Mets lefty David Peterson counters with a 3.05 ERA and similarly stingy 0.8 HR/9. The Mets bullpen ranks 3rd in MLB with a 2.92 ERA, giving both sides shutdown relief behind strong starters. With neither lineup likely to string together big innings, Peterson sees value in fading offense at Yankee Stadium.

The Bettor Mark leaned to the Mets moneyline at +115 in Game 2 of the Subway Series. He likes the "zig-zag" narrative after the Yankees got their revenge Friday in a 6-2 win and believes New York’s National League club owns the better mound matchup: rookie right-hander Griffin Canning brings a 5-1 record and 2.36 ERA into Yankee Stadium opposite Clark Schmidt. Mark also cited the short porch and winds blowing out to left, factors that can mitigate Schmidt’s solid strike-throwing profile. With the Mets bats heating up and the plus price attached, he labeled the Amazins a "live short underdog" worth a sprinkle.

JD Bets liked Tylor Megill to beat his 5.5-strikeout prop in the Subway Series. Megill is averaging 6.5 Ks per start on the season and 7.0 over his last five, showing an uptick in both whiff rate and slider usage. The Yankees, meanwhile, punch out 8.8 times per game over their last ten (9.1 on the season), the sixth-worst mark in MLB during that stretch. JD dismissed Carlos Rodon’s number because the Mets rarely fan (7.8 per game), settling on Megill as the only angle. He admitted it "might be a little sweaty," but believes the right-hander’s recent form and New York’s strike-happy lineup give him a clear path to the six strikeouts needed to cash.

Lonte fired on the Yankees moneyline coming off a 4-2 road trip. Carlos Rodon sports a 1.71 ERA over his last five starts, holding opponents scoreless in three of them while logging 7+ strikeouts in four. He expects Rodon to work deep enough (six to seven innings) to mitigate New York’s shaky bullpen. Conversely, Tylor Megill has dropped three straight decisions and surrendered eight earned in his last two outings. Although the Mets hit lefties well, Lonte pointed out their road OPS is significantly lower than at Citi Field, giving the edge to the Bronx Bombers.

Reichel grabbed the Mets at +125, reminding listeners that they swept last year’s Subway Series and possess the better bullpen. While Carlos Rodon has been sharp, New York’s relief corps has repeatedly blown his leads, and the Yankees offense was lifeless in the final two games versus Seattle. Reichel trusts Tylor Megill to keep the game close and likes the price on a Mets club that is 28-16 overall despite playing .500 ball on the road.

Cash Out Sports Picks doubled down with the over, emphasizing both clubs’ home-run prowess in a friendly park. The Yankees pace MLB with 76 bombs, while the Mets have 53 and own a top-5 walk rate—fuel for big innings against Megill, who has served up three homers in his last three starts and struggles when men reach base. The Yankees have hit the over in three of their last five, and every Megill start has gone over in that same stretch. Rodon may shove, but the Mets’ power plus New York’s red-hot bats make double-digit runs a realistic expectation.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid the juice on the Yankees’ money-line, citing Carlos Rodon’s home dominance (3.42 ERA at Yankee Stadium, 0 ER in 3 of last 5 starts, .171 BAA, >1 K/IP) opposite a struggling Tylor Megill. The Mets are 1-4 in Megill’s last five outings; he has yielded 11 hits and 8 runs in fewer than 10 innings across those starts and his road ERA jumps to 4.42. Offensively New York ranks top-3 in batting average, leads MLB in homers, and draws walks at an elite clip, giving them multiple paths to pressure Megill. With Yankee Stadium buzzing for Juan Soto’s return and a 13-8 home record already in pocket, the tout expects the Bronx Bombers to handle business.

Drew Martin backed the Yankees at roughly -140 in the Subway Series opener. He noted that New York owns the No. 1 weighted-runs-created-plus versus right-handed pitching both season-long and over the past week, and he trusts a bullpen he ranks sixth in MLB. Carlos Rodon has fanned 67 hitters while allowing only 33 hits in 54 IP and just blanked San Diego for 6.2 scoreless frames in his last Yankee Stadium appearance. On the other side, Tylor Megill has surrendered 8 ER across his last 9 innings and hands the ball to a Mets bullpen Martin grades 20th overall. In a hitters park, Martin expects Rodon to deliver a quality start and the Bronx pen to close the door, making the Yanks a play up to -150.

Kenny G recommended taking the Yankees at ‑136 in the Citi/​Bronx leg of Rivalry Week. His case starts with Carlos Rodon, who owns a 3.29 ERA and just punched out 10 Athletics despite allowing 4 ER; overall he has been “borderline lights-out.” The Yankee bullpen has backed him with a 3.47 ERA. On the other side, Tylor Megill carries a solid 3.10 ERA but is coming off back-to-back shaky outings, most recently surrendering four earned over 4⅔ to the Cubs. While the Mets’ bullpen is elite (2.98 ERA, top-4), their bats have gone quiet—0, 2, 4 and 6 runs their last four—and Pete Alonso has cooled. Meanwhile the Yankees remain the top scoring club in baseball, driven by Aaron Judge’s absurd .412 average, 15 HR and 41 RBI. Yankee Stadium’s quirky dimensions give that lineup another edge, and New York is 13-8 at home compared to the Mets’ 11-11 road mark. Kenny concluded the price is short for the superior pitcher, lineup and home field, making the Yankees worth a bet.

Backing Under 9, Peterson highlighted a pair of strikeout-heavy arms and elite bullpens. Tylor Megill sports a 3.10 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 11.5 K/9 and a minuscule 0.7 HR/9; Carlos Rodon counters with a 3.29 ERA and identical 11 K/9. Should either starter tire, the relief units can slam the door—the Mets bullpen ranks 4th with a 2.98 ERA and the Yankees 9th at 3.47. Peterson posted 8.3 as his true number, making the current total too high.

Francisco Lindor ($4,000) made Bennett’s short list thanks to a track record against Carlos Rodon: 10-for-35 (.286) with two homers and four walks. The rest of the Mets are just 9-for-34 combined, so Lindor offers both floor and leverage as the clear piece of the order most likely to do damage against the Yankees’ lefty.