Kenny G called the Yankees –190 in Fenway a potential “lock of the day.” He trusts Max Fried, now 9-1 with a 1.84 ERA, far more than Boston’s Brayan Bello, whose 3.96 mark hides the fact the Red Sox are 1-4 in his last five starts against mostly mediocre offenses. New York owns MLB’s best road record (21-14) and a top-three lineup in runs and batting average even though it has scored only five total runs in the first two games of the series. Kenny expects that lull to end against Bello and a Boston pen he labels “playable, but not scary” (3.55 ERA). With the Yankees bullpen still solid at 3.65, he projects Fried to hand a lead to reliable relief and sees enough value at –190 to make it his strongest side on Sunday.

For the same rivalry game, Cash Out Sports Picks leaned Under, built almost entirely on Max Fried’s ability to smother lineups. The left-hander’s 1.84 ERA and .198 opponent average have limited crooked numbers all season, and the tout doesn’t see Boston—already inconsistent offensively—stringing together hits. With Fried controlling tempo and Bello unlikely to allow a full-scale eruption, Cash Out projects a tight, low-scoring contest.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised taking the Yankees money-line at Fenway because Max Fried has been nearly untouchable (9-1, 1.84 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, .198 BAA, 81 K / 18 BB through 14 starts). In contrast, Brayan Bello sports a 3.96 ERA and an ugly 1.55 WHIP with 25 BB in just 51 IP, allowing hitters to bat .277. The tout notes that New York’s already potent lineup gains an even bigger edge when paired with a Cy Young frontrunner, making Boston’s upset bid “a monumental challenge.”

Bill Harrelson went right back to Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases after Friday’s 0-for-4. Judge has cashed this prop in 7 of his last 10, 12 of his last 20, and 11 of his last 17 meetings with Boston (65%). His 2025 hit-rate on the prop sits at 66%. Harrelson likes the overlap with his Bello under K play: if Judge piles up bases, Bello’s strikeout ceiling naturally shrinks. Given Judge’s elite power profile and lengthy history of torching Red Sox pitching, Harrelson expects a quick bounce-back multi-base night.

Bill Harrelson advised taking Brayan Bello under 4.5 strikeouts in Sunday’s rivalry tilt with the Yankees. Bello has failed to reach five punch-outs in 8 of 10 starts this season and 12 of his last 20 overall, including each of his last two outings versus New York. Every major book is shading the under to at least ‑130 (FanDuel sits at ‑136), while PrizePicks still lists the prop at even money. Harrelson’s strategy is to ride the consensus of the sharper books when a pick-em market disagrees, and here the books clearly expect Bello to stay below the number.

Drew Martin plans to lay the 1.5 with the Yankees at Fenway because the straight moneyline will be too expensive. New York enters the weekend seven games over .500 on the road with a +100 run differential and sends newly-acquired ace Max Fried to the mound. Fried is 9-1 with a 1.96 ERA and an 81:18 K:BB ratio. Boston counters with Brayan Bello, whose 4.00 ERA is backed by a shaky 37:25 strikeout-to-walk line over 50+ innings. Martin believes the league’s No.-1 scoring lineup will exploit Bello’s control issues, giving Fried plenty of cushion to cover the run line.

Guy Boston Sports pivoted from yesterday’s 2-1 snoozer and is back on the FULL-GAME OVER in Yankees–Red Sox, calling it a "fade Hunter Dobbins" spot. He doubts the rookie can repeat last week’s adrenaline-fueled 11–7 upset, pointing to prior minor-league tape that showed shaky command. New York owns one of MLB’s best offenses (123 wRC+ vs RHP) and rarely forgives bulletin-board material—Dobbins publicly chirped them after the win. Even with wind blowing in at Fenway, the tout believes both lineups have "runs bottled up": Boston’s bats have "found something" over the past week, and the short porch inflated only two of the seven homers in the first meeting, so run creation was not solely park-fluke. He likes Yankees TEAM TOTAL OVER as a secondary play and will attack Dobbins via hits-allowed props, but the primary wager is the game over 9 (playable to 9.5) on the assumption that New York cracks the rookie early and Boston’s revived offense contributes late.

Guy Boston Sports wants action on the Yankees after rookie Hunter Dobbins’ trash-talk fueled Boston’s 11-7 win last Sunday. Carlos Rodon starts for New York, while Dobbins faces his second look from MLB’s most powerful lineup (123 wRC+ vs RHP). The tout expects regression for the rookie, recommending Yankees Team Total Over 5 (or fading Dobbins via hits-allowed props) rather than laying a steep money line. He noted that adrenaline likely fluffed Dobbins’ first outing and believes the Yankees will have a dialed-in game plan this time. If books hang TT 4.5 at standard juice, he’s all aboard; alternatively he’d look at Dobbins Over 5.5 hits allowed.

Guy Boston Sports doubled down on his earlier Paul Goldschmidt strikeout play, again recommending OVER 0.5 Ks (price implied at –150 on DraftKings). He reiterated that Goldschmidt has fanned in 37 of 66 games this season (56%) and in six of his last seven versus Boston (86%, 1.43 K/game). The tout added fresh context: Goldschmidt’s strike-out rate jumps versus right-handed pitching, while Hunter Dobbins owns a 19.6% overall K-rate and 19.3% rate specifically against right-handed hitters. Dobbins also limits walks, creating extra chances to finish plate appearances with a punch-out. With Goldschmidt’s wOBA, AVG, and hard-hit rate all dipping against righties, and Dobbins’ splits lining up, the tout expects at least one whiff tonight and still views the –150 price as short given the matchup data.

Guy Boston Sports backed Paul Goldschmidt over 0.5 strikeouts at –150 on DraftKings. Despite going whiff-free in his last two outings, Goldy has struck out in 8 of his past 10 games (1.3 K/game) and 37 of 66 contests on the season (56%). His history against Boston is even stronger—he has fanned in 6 of the last 7 matchups (1.43 K/game), including six straight prior to last night. The tout frames the recent two-game drought as a "due" spot and views the –150 price as a bargain compared with –244 on Underdog and –208 on Sleeper.

Bill Harrelson said Aaron Judge is a strong bet to collect more than 1.5 total bases Saturday in Boston. Judge has cashed this number in 7 of his last 10 and 12 of his last 20 overall, while owning an 11-for-17 record lifetime versus the Red Sox. Harrelson highlighted Judge’s 4-of-5 recent success against Boston, his 1-for-2 track (with a homer) against projected starter Dobbson, and a season-long 66 % hit rate (51 % last year) on the prop. Odds support the play, with FanDuel hanging a ‑140 price to the over. All signals point to Judge clearing the 2-base threshold again in a hitter-friendly matchup at Fenway.

Matt Perrault leaned toward the Yankees winning Saturday’s rivalry game but advised listeners to skip the moneyline because books are hanging –175 on New York as a road favorite. Perrault expects the Yankees’ lineup to tag rookie Hunter Dobbins for 3–4 runs while Boston scratches only 2–3 off Carlos Rodon, giving the Bronx Bombers the edge. However, with the Red Sox 3-1 in the series and both bullpens capable of blowing leads, he argued the implied 63-percent win probability is too rich. Perrault’s actionable takeaway: if you want exposure to this matchup, play the total (he’s already on Over 8.5) rather than laying heavy juice with New York.

Cash Out Sports Picks took the Yankees on the moneyline in Fenway, arguing it is notoriously hard for a pitcher to beat the same opponent in back-to-back starts. Garrett Crochet just silenced New York, but the Yankees lead MLB in wRC+ and rarely stay quiet twice. Boston counters with Ryan Yarber, fresh off a pounding, and its bullpen has been shaky without Kenley Jansen. The Bombers are 13-5 in their last 18 road games, boast a patient top-to-bottom lineup headlined by Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, and profile for far more offensive upside than Boston. Add in the revenge narrative and matchup edge, and the tout made the Yankees his favorite side of the rivalry.

Gianni the Greek recommended betting Will Warren over 1.5 walks tonight. Warren ranks 11th-worst among current MLB starters with roughly 4.5 BB/9, and that figure has ballooned above five per nine over his last three starts. Gianni’s projection model spits out 2.3 walks for Warren against a Royals lineup that sits top-10 in chase-rate discipline. He will only play the over at 1.5— if books move to 2.5 he would pass.

Though Rafael Devers is officially 2-for-7 (.286) against Ryan Yarbrough, the tout jokingly "rounded up" to .300 to keep his rule intact. Devers has hits in eight of ten games, so the host still flagged him as a viable hit prop.