Boston backed the Mariners money line and leaned toward the game OVER in Oakland. He cited Bryan Woo’s strong 2025 form (1.5 ERA through five starts, sub-1.00 WHIP) versus rookie Gunnar Hogland’s unknown ceiling in just his second MLB appearance. Offensively, both clubs have averaged roughly four runs per game, yet Seattle’s attack has been more consistent, especially on the road. Yesterday’s 5-3 outcome fell short of a lofty total, and Boston expects a "get-back" day with improved run production from both sides. His projection model has the combined offenses at 9-10 runs if Hogland is merely average, making Seattle and a full-game over 8.5 worthwhile at standard juice.

Razzle labeled Bryan Woo a core play. The right-hander owns the best win odds on the five-gamer (+110) and a 5.5 strikeout prop (pick-em). Oakland provides plenty of Ks, and Woo has largely neutralized the home-run ball. Seattle lets him push toward 90–95 pitches, giving a realistic path to six innings and a quality start bonus on DraftKings. With the game total at 9 but juiced to the over largely because of the A’s bullpen and Mariners bats, Razzle trusts Woo’s skills to rise above the environment.

Rosenberg sided with the Rhythm model and took Bryan Woo under 18.5 pitching outs. Even though Woo has been "lightning lately," Rosenberg argued the number is mis-priced: books are asking for a full seven innings despite manager Scott Servais limiting Woo to 90 pitches or fewer in five of six starts since his IL stint. Oakland’s lineup is weak, but that only increases the chance Seattle protects its young arm rather than pushing him deep in a game they should control. Laying heavy juice on the under wasn’t attractive in straight markets, so Rosenberg slotted the play into their Underdog Fantasy entry to keep exposure without eating −200 vigorish.

JD Bets targeted Gunnar Hoglund’s over-4.5 hits allowed prop, arguing the rookie right-hander is in a brutal spot. Hoglund surrendered six knocks in his MLB debut against a struggling Miami lineup, and now faces a Seattle offense that ranks top-3 in nearly every category, including 9.9 hits per game and a .284 average over the last 10 contests. With the wind blowing out at the Coliseum (75° and 6 mph) and Seattle owning a 7-3 record during its current tear, JD expects Hoglund to give up at least five hits—matching or exceeding what the light-hitting Marlins managed. He passed on Woo strikeouts and the full-game total, preferring the more focused fade of Hoglund’s hits prop.

Derek Carty recommended betting Brent Rooker OVER 0.5 home runs at +500. THE BAT X assigns a 20% probability—implying fair odds near +400—and a $21.62 expected value per $100 wager. Carty highlighted that Sutter Health Park ranks as the fifth-best stadium for right-handed homers under Wednesday’s weather conditions. Rooker’s 15.2% barrel rate and 92.7-mph average exit velocity amplify the park boost, making the +500 line one of the slate’s most mispriced power props.

Lindquist bet the over in Seattle–Oakland even though Bryan Woo and Gunnar Hoglund both flash swing-and-miss stuff. He said the Coliseum has been playing "insane" for offense, overriding the usual pitcher-friendly reputation. Woo’s dominant fastball can still leak hard contact when he falls behind, and Hoglund’s great debut came against weak Miami bats; Lindquist doubts the rookie can keep a 1.72 xERA. With middling bullpens waiting, he projected enough scoring paths to clear the current total.

Michael Savio laid out multiple reasons to back the Mariners -1.5 at +105. Oakland is giving the ball to rookie Gunnar Hoglund, who dazzled against the light-hitting Marlins in his debut but now has to deal with one of baseball’s hottest lineups: Seattle is top-5 in OPS over the last two weeks. On the other side, Savio highlighted Bryan Woo’s dominant form—four straight quality starts, a 2.05 ERA, and microscopic 0.83 WHIP over that span. He expects Woo to neutralize an A’s offense that projects to be league-average at best this season, creating a lopsided pitching mismatch. With Seattle’s bats rolling and Oakland’s inexperience on the mound, Savio believes the Mariners win comfortably by multiple runs.

For the total, Cash Out Sports Picks went over, noting that these AL West foes have cashed six overs in their last ten meetings. Seattle has hit the over in eight of ten overall and has scored 31 runs in its last five road games. Both offenses are outperforming preseason expectations, ranking seventh and 14th in MLB scoring, while Oakland’s staff has allowed roughly four runs per game over its last ten. With Seattle’s bats rolling and Hoglund’s inexperience likely to tax the home bullpen, the tout anticipates another high-scoring division clash.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Seattle on the money line, citing Brian Wu’s dominance (0.83 WHIP, 25 hits in 38+ IP) and the Mariners’ 11-3 daytime record. With detailed video now available, the tout expects Seattle hitters to force Gunnar Hoglund’s pitch count up and expose an Oakland bullpen that will have to cover innings. Wu has consistently worked into the seventh and historically stifled the A’s, giving the Mariners both the starting-pitching and bullpen edge in the seventh head-to-head already this year.

Rockford went the other way, betting Over 9 (–115) with a model total of 10.4. Seattle averages 5.5 runs and hits .267 on the road, while the A’s are 10-6 to the over at home and just tagged the Mariners for seven runs. He noted that Seattle games are 8-2 to the over in their last 10, including four straight overs. Even if Woo and Hoglund pitch well, Dylan expects both improving offenses and suspect bullpens (Oakland pen 4.61 ERA) to push double-digit runs.

Bamford is taking Oakland at +120 and leans Under 9. Bryan Woo is terrific (2.58 ERA, 0.83 WHIP) but Seattle is only .500 on the road and rarely blows teams out. Malcolm likes top prospect Gunnar Hoglund, who dominated Miami in his debut, to keep the A’s in it. He expected a lower total given Woo’s track record and the Coliseum’s run-suppressing tendencies, so sees value in the under as well as the home dog.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Seattle on the money line, citing Brian Wu’s dominance (0.83 WHIP, 25 hits in 38+ IP) and the Mariners’ 11-3 daytime record. With detailed video now available, the tout expects Seattle hitters to force Gunnar Hoglund’s pitch count up and expose an Oakland bullpen that will have to cover innings. Wu has consistently worked into the seventh and historically stifled the A’s, giving the Mariners both the starting-pitching and bullpen edge in the seventh head-to-head already this year.

Just A Bet Outside laid out a first-five-innings play on the Mariners –0.5 run line at –110. His confidence is rooted in Bryan Woo’s superb 2024 profile: an 0.83 WHIP, 2.44 xERA, only 5.9 hits per 9, a 4.8 % walk rate, and 8-plus strikeouts in each of his last two outings. Woo has allowed more than three earned runs just once all season and even held Texas to one hit his last time out. On the other side is rookie Gunner Hoglund, whose lone MLB start came against Miami (6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H) and whose 3.89 minor-league ERA and sub-1 K per inning rate suggest merely average stuff. Seattle owns MLB’s No. 1 offense versus right-handed pitching over the past three weeks, including the top walk rate, while Oakland is merely Top-10. Both bullpens are “pretty exhausted” after back-to-back games, so Stephen prefers to isolate the starting-pitcher edge. With the superior arm and slightly better lineup, he advised grabbing Seattle to be leading after five.

Joe Pisapia singled out Brent Rooker as his favorite long-shot homer bet at +360. Pisapia noted that Seattle rookie Emerson Hancock brings a 6.00 ERA into tonight’s start and has already served up a blast to Rooker in their limited history (Rooker is 1-for-2 with a homer off him). The game will be played in one of the league’s smallest outfield footprints, a park Joe called “that tiny ballpark,” which should help Rooker’s pull-side power play even bigger. Pisapia trusts Rooker’s 15% barrel rate and 93 mph average exit velocity to punish Hancock’s middling four-seamer again and thinks the price is far too generous for a hitter who already has 13 bombs in 210 plate appearances. He framed the prop as both a straight bet and a DFS one-off tournament dart for owners chasing upside.

Calling Jorge Polanco’s Hits OVER 0.5 at -200 "as safe as it gets," Data Skrive pointed to the veteran’s scorching .356/.406/.724 line. Polanco has produced 31 hits in 26 games, has at least one knock in 81% of his starts, and draws the same soft matchup with rookie Gunnar Hoglund. Seattle’s projected lineup gives him protection in front of Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh, which should force Hoglund to attack early in counts. Given Polanco’s 45% hard-hit rate and multi-hit upside, Data Skrive endorsed laying the juice on the 0.5-hit threshold rather than chasing a more volatile total-base number.

Data Skrive highlighted Cal Raleigh’s Total Bases OVER 1.5 at +100 as one of Wednesday’s stronger props. Raleigh owns a .246/.364/.577 slash through 35 games with 75 total bases and 12 homers, so he is averaging 2.1 TB per game and clearing this number 57% of the time. He’ll catch Gunnar Hoglund, who is making his first MLB start for Oakland, giving Seattle’s switch-hitting slugger a matchup edge against an untested right-hander. With weather expected to be mild in West Sacramento and the Mariners carrying the slate’s third-highest implied run total, Data Skrive sees Raleigh’s extra-base power playing up and labeled the over a plus-money buy.

Cash Out Sports Picks took the Athletics on the money line, arguing that the recent form gap between the clubs is still not fully priced in. Oakland has won 10 of its last 13 games and just stole another close one last night, injection a jolt of confidence into a previously dormant roster. Seattle counters with rookie right-hander Emerson Hancock, and the tout highlighted his continued long-ball issues—five homers surrendered to Oakland alone (two last year, three already in four 2025 starts). Hancock owns a career 5.08 ERA and has been rocked for 26 hits and 13 earned runs in only 17.2 innings this season. The Mariners’ pen carries a respectable 3.77 ERA over the past 10 days, yet their inability to shut the door in back-to-back nights reinforces the fade. Oakland’s bullpen has been shakier (5.55 ERA over that span) but still managed a 4-1 record with four saves, signaling a club that keeps finding ways to finish games. With Jeffrey Springs coming off six scoreless against Texas and the A’s lineup showing modest improvement versus right-handers (.289 BABIP, 15th in MLB), Cash Out believes Oakland should be a short favorite rather than a dog in this matchup.

Shubham Soni pegged Brent Rooker at +380 to go yard against Seattle. Rooker has quietly mashed 9 homers and 18 RBIs despite the Athletics’ anemic offense. He’ll see Emerson Hancock, who owns a 6.62 ERA and has surrendered 3 homers in just 17.2 frames while routinely missing spots middle-in. Soni argued Rooker’s pull-side power is tailor-made to punish Hancock’s mistakes, calling the +380 price a premium play on an overlooked bat.

Guy Boston recommended Seattle at plus money in Oakland despite Emerson Hancock’s inconsistency. The Mariners rank among the league’s best road offenses and get a favorable pitch mix from Jeffrey Springs, whose fastball is the one offering Seattle grades poorly against; his change-up and slider are pitches the M’s right-handed core (Crawford, Arozarena, Rodriguez) have feasted on. Boston also cited yesterday’s extra-inning, one-run loss as evidence the series is competitive, and with both starters sporting ERAs north of 4.50, he is comfortable adding the over 8.5 to the card. Official play: Mariners ML down to even money; smaller sprinkle on the full-game over.

Peterson played Over 9.5 (projection 10.3). Seattle paces the AL in road scoring at 5.7 runs per game and now sees Jeffrey Springs, who sports a 4.98 ERA and has served up 3+ runs in five of six starts. Emerson Hancock’s 6.62 ERA and 1.5 HR/9 invite the A’s—eighth in home-run rate—to keep pace. With two gas-can starters and explosive long-ball potential on both sides, Peterson projected a total well into double digits.

Data Skrive projected the A's to win 6-5 and advised laying the modest –123 moneyline. Their model noted that Oakland has thrived in this role all season, winning 9 of 13 overall games as a favorite (69.2%) and posting a 6-3 record specifically when listed at –123 or shorter (66.7%). The implied win probability baked into the price (55.2%) sits below the club's actual success rate as chalk, creating what the analyst views as a small edge. Seattle, meanwhile, has been a .500 club as an underdog (6-6) and is only 1-1 in its last two chances getting plus money. With both teams rated 50-50 by the model but the A's carrying more favorable situational trends, Data Skrive sees acceptable value on Oakland’s moneyline.

Matt Perrault advised grabbing the over 9.5 in Game 2 of the neutral-site series in Sacramento before the market bumps it to 10 or higher. He pointed to a dream hitting environment—AAA ballpark dimensions, dry air—and two shaky starters. Seattle’s Emerson Hancock has surrendered 3, 2, 2 and 6 earned runs in his four big-league outings, with game totals of 9, 6, 11 and 7. Oakland counters with lefty Jeffrey Springs, who owns just one clean start all season; outside of a six-inning shutout on May 1, he has been tagged for 5, 4, 3 and 3 earned, producing finals of 10-4, 12-3, 14-1 and 10-3. Perrault noted that Monday’s opener was 4-4 in the 5th with the live total already at 12.5, reinforcing his expectation for another high-scoring slugfest. He locked in 1.1 units on Over 9.5 and advised doing so quickly before the number is reposted at double digits once the pitching matchup gets wider attention.

Bettor Mark said he would only play the over in Mariners-A’s because Emerson Hancock continues to profile as a fade. Hancock has allowed a .303 opponents’ batting average and 46% hard-hit rate while averaging barely 8% swinging-strikes—numbers that point to at least three earned runs in his typical 90-100 pitch workload. Mark added that Oakland’s lineup—"Vegas, Sacramento, whatever you want to call them"—is starting to string together quality ABs, ranking top-12 in isolated power this month. Although he ultimately passed, he told viewers an over nine at –105 would be his preferred angle given Hancock’s contact-heavy profile and two bullpens that used multiple high-leverage arms Monday.

Kenny G went back to the well on the total, recommending Under 9.5 in Mariners-A’s. He expects Emerson Hancock’s recent improvement (three straight starts of three earned or fewer) coupled with a quietly competent 3.66 Seattle bullpen to keep Oakland in check. On the other side, Jeffrey Spriggs owns a 4.98 ERA but is coming off his best outing of the year—6 IP, 9 K, 0 ER against Texas—and already blanked these Mariners for six innings on March 28. Oakland’s bats remain bottom-tier, while Seattle’s surprise top-10 offense has still cashed just 19 overs in 33 games, suggesting regression. T-Mobile Park form also favors the under: the A’s are 16-15-4 to the under overall and 6-9 to the under at home. With neither lineup profiling as explosive and both pens usable, Kenny projects a 5-3 type game and says the current 9.5 is at least a half-run too high.

Lindquist put a quarter-unit on Over 9.5 (plus money) in Mariners-A’s and plans to double if a flat 9 appears at ‑115 or better. He noted plush offensive conditions: wind is forecast to blow out at the Coliseum and Tuesday’s temperatures are warmer than Monday’s. On the mound, Emerson Hancock sports a .310 xBA and .360 xwOBA, while Oakland lefty Jeffrey “Silver” Springs is keeping hard-hit rate low (29.6%) but gives up extreme lift (21.1° launch angle) and has seen both his strikeout and walk numbers deteriorate in 2024. Lindquist thinks neither arm will work deep, exposing two below-average bullpens. He labeled it a classic West-Coast late sweat worth attacking early before weather models firm up.

Guy Boston doubled down on his earlier fade of Julio Rodriguez, reiterating the under 1.5 total bases at ‑135 after digging into fresh matchup data. Since 2018, J-Rod is 0-for-6 with a .167 OBP against Luis Severino, giving bettors a clean goose-egg in the hits column. Rodriguez is batting just .209 overall this season and, while his average and BABIP tick up slightly versus right-handed pitching, his ISO and extra-base-hit rate both drop—problematic for a prop that requires either an XBH or multiple knocks. Severino is holding right-handed hitters to a .205 average, .318 slugging, and 33.3% XBH rate despite an inflated ERA, suggesting luck issues rather than hard contact. Rodriguez has still failed to clear 1.5 TB in 19 of 33 games (58%) and in three of four meetings with Oakland this year. Boston believes the combination of Rodriguez’s cold bat, zero track record against Severino, and the pitcher’s stingy splits make the under a strong value play yet again.

Guy Boston recommended the under on Julio Rodriguez’s 1.5 total bases at ‑135. J-Rod has finished below this line in 19 of 33 games on the year (58%) and 5 of his last 10 contests (1.8 TB average). Versus division-rival Oakland he is 11-for-17 to the under since 2024 (65%, 1.59 TB average) and 3-for-4 to the under in 2025 meetings. Boston noted that Rodriguez’s only over versus the A’s came back on March 30 when he collected four bases, but Oakland has otherwise limited his power. Given the Mariners’ early-season offensive struggles and a matchup with right-hander Luis Severino, Boston expects Rodriguez to be held to a single or less, making the under a worthwhile wager.

Using THE BAT X model, Derek Carty flagged Nick Kurtz OVER 0.5 home runs at +800 as Monday’s highest expected-value long-shot. The projection gives a 13% chance (fair odds +669) thanks largely to the day’s warmest forecast—82°—which historically inflates HR rates. With elevated temperature reducing air density and aiding carry, Carty’s model pegs the prop at +$16.91 EV per $100 staked.

numberFire assigns Seattle a 59.9% win probability while books are dealing the Mariners at –110 (implied 52.4%). Data Skrive pointed to that 7.5-point gap as a reason to grab the M’s behind Bryce Miller. Seattle owns a 20-13 record and draws Luis Severino and an A’s club that is 40.1% to win per the model. The projection makes Seattle a rare road favorite that still carries positive expected value.

Lawrence Rupp highlighted Jorge Polanco as a +360 homer play thanks to a torrid two-week stretch (.444/.532/1.122 with six HR and 14 RBI) and a trip to Sutter Health Park, Statcast’s No. 2 run-scoring environment in 2025. Polanco and teammate Cal Raleigh are 7-for-15 with two homers off Monday starter Luis Severino, who has already been tagged for four long balls in four home starts. The combination of elite recent form, a homer-boosting venue, and a familiar, vulnerable pitcher has Rupp locking in Polanco’s HR prop.

Lawrence Rupp recommended betting Cal Raleigh at +300 to leave the yard again. Raleigh tops the league with 12 homers and owns a .587 slugging percentage, third-best overall. He heads into Statcast’s second-most hitter-friendly park against Luis Severino, whom Raleigh has already taken deep while going 7-for-15 collectively with Jorge Polanco. Severino’s four homers allowed in four home outings underscore the matchup edge. Rupp expects the power-hitting catcher to pad his league-leading total in Sacramento on Monday night.

Zarpentine likes Cal Raleigh to hit a home run at +260 despite the shorter price for MLB’s current HR leader. Raleigh already tagged Oakland hurler Luis Severino once in only four career at-bats and just snapped a mini-lull with a two-homer game Friday against Texas. Monday’s contest is being played in Sacramento’s AAA park, which has shorter power alleys than the Coliseum, and the A’s have surrendered the fifth-most homers at home this season. Those park factors, paired with Severino’s elevated barrel rate (10.8%), create a juicy recipe for Raleigh’s 13th blast.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised playing the full-game over in Mariners-A’s at Sutter Health Park. He framed it as a perfect storm for offense: Seattle’s bats have erupted against right-handed pitching over the last 10 days (.980 OPS, .251 ISO, 188 wRC+) and now face Luis Severino, who owns a 5.11 ERA at home and has surrendered three homers to current Mariners in only five at-bats. Oakland is less imposing (.707 OPS, 104 wRC+ in that same span), yet the tout noted the park’s generous dimensions and Bryce Miller’s shaky command—19 walks in 30.2 innings, 1.43 WHIP overall and 1.60 WHIP in three road starts—create plenty of run-scoring pathways. With both starters showing pronounced home/road splits and the ballpark grading out as a hitter’s venue, he expects each lineup to cash in early and often, making the over the smarter angle than choosing sides.

Seattle is -115 (54% implied) but Kingpin AI assigns a 57% win chance, good for +6-7% EV. The model calls Oakland one of baseball’s weakest clubs and believes the Mariners’ superior lineup and pitching should be priced steeper, so the modest juice is worth paying.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with Seattle, noting the Mariners’ surge against right-handed pitching over the past ten days: .980 OPS, .251 ISO, and a gaudy 188 wRC+. Luis Severino has allowed only six earned runs in his last 24.2 innings, but Bryce Miller owns a pair of scoreless outings in his past three starts and has limited current A’s hitters to a combined 1-for-5 with two solo homers. Oakland’s offense, meanwhile, has sputtered to a .707 OPS and 104 wRC+ versus righties in the same span. In the hitter-friendly confines of Sutter Health Park, the tout believes Seattle’s superior lineup carries the day.

Data Skrive forecasts a 6-5 Seattle win, playing Mariners ‑115 and Over 9. Bryce Miller’s splitter has been volatile (1.7 HR/9) and Luis Severino’s 10.8% walk rate keeps traffic on the bases, a recipe the model thinks inflates scoring in homer-friendly Sutter Health Park. Oakland’s bullpen has the league’s worst left-on-base percentage (64%), while Seattle’s deep lineup ranks fourth in OPS versus right-handed pitching. Add in a 12-mph wind out to left-center, and the computer likes the M’s to outslug the A’s in a track-meet.

Kenny G’s favorite angle in Seattle–Oakland is the under 9.5 runs. He praised both starters: Bryce Miller has a 3.52 ERA and is coming off five scoreless innings (though five walks) against the Angels, while Luis Severino sports a 3.30 ERA and already blanked Seattle for six frames on April 27. Seattle’s bullpen sits at 3.66 ERA, which Kenny thinks undersells its quality, and Oakland’s pen, while mediocre at 4.43, isn’t a full liability. He pointed to the A’s middling offense (14th in runs, 16th in OBP) and Seattle’s recent one-run dud as evidence the total is inflated. Market totals of nine or 9.5 look too high given two capable arms, manageable bullpens and no wind concerns, so Kenny is betting under 9.5.

Calling it his MLB "lock," Lindquist bet Seattle at −110 and expects it to close −125 or shorter. He trusts Bryce Miller even with a 14.7 % walk rate because the right-hander has allowed only three barrels in 79 batted-ball events (3.8 % barrel rate) and sports a career-best 3.67 xERA. On the other side, Luis Severino’s 18.1 % strikeout rate, 43.7 % hard-hit rate and .285 xBA make him vulnerable, especially against a Mariners lineup that leads MLB in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching on the road (137 wRC+, .190 ISO, 20.3 % K). Lindquist also noted that the temporary Sacramento venue is playing neutral, not pitcher-friendly, so Oakland loses whatever home-field edge it once had. He advises betting any −115 or better.

Peterson also played Over 9 (projected 9.2) in Seattle–Oakland. Severino’s 5.11 home ERA and four homers allowed at Sutter Health Park meet a Mariners offense scoring 5.7 per game on the road. Bryce Miller’s 5.7 BB/9 invites traffic for an A’s lineup that has shown sporadic pop, while Oakland’s bullpen has been forced to cover heavy innings early. With both starters carrying red-flag peripherals, Peterson expects the total to close higher and recommends locking in 9 now.

Michael Savio backed Bryce Miller and the Mariners ML at -115 in a surprising AL West first-place showdown. He acknowledged Miller’s uneven start (2-3, 3.52 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, control problems) but pointed out that the A’s have managed just a .192 average against the right-hander across 52 career at-bats, suggesting a get-right spot. Meanwhile Seattle’s offense is humming with a .314 average and .920 OPS over the past week as Julio Rodriguez and company finally heat up. Oakland counters with Luis Severino (1-3, 3.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), whom Savio respects but does not believe can survive a lineup this hot. With Seattle’s bats rolling and Miller’s prior success versus Oakland, Savio sees clear value on the Mariners to maintain their division lead.

Peterson laid -112 with Seattle (his number -124) because Luis Severino’s Oakland home woes collide with baseball’s best road offense. Severino’s ERA balloons to 5.11 in Sacramento and he has already served up four long balls in 24 2/3 home frames. The Mariners average nearly 5.7 road runs, tops in the AL. Bryce Miller has walked 5.7 per nine but has surrendered only one homer in 30 2/3 innings, giving Seattle the edge if he limits free passes. Given the offensive gap and Severino’s split, Peterson made Seattle a larger favorite than the market.

It's The Final Round flagged Cal Raleigh as another batter to attack Luis Severino with. Raleigh is 2-for-4 with a homer against the right-hander and has hits in 13 of 17 games overall. Given Severino’s issues with left-handed power and Raleigh’s plate appearances volume, the tout likes the over on his hits or total bases and sees tourney-winning upside behind the plate in DFS.

It's The Final Round called Lawrence Butler a sneaky play against Miller, citing a 2-for-4 line with a homer (.500) in the brief matchup and a current run of hits in 14 of his last 18 games. The analyst recommended over 0.5 hit props and cheap DFS exposure given Butler’s recent contact quality.

It's The Final Round advised backing Jorge Polanco props versus Luis Severino. Severino’s four-seam (28 % usage) is giving up a .333 average while Polanco owns two homers off that pitch this season. The bigger edge is the cutter (24 % usage): Polanco is 5-for-12 (.417) with three homers on cutters, but Severino still allows a .250 average on the offering. The switch-hitter also bats .500 with two homers off changeups, another 19 % of Severino’s repertoire. Historically Polanco is 5-for-11 (.455) with a homer against the righty. He has hits in 12 of 14 games and sports a 47.8 % sweet-spot rate, fourth-best in MLB; Severino sits middle-of-the-pack at 30.4 %. The tout projects multiple hits/extra-base knocks and recommends Polanco for hits, total-bases and DFS lineups.

Just A Bet Outside fired a full-unit bet on the Mariners moneyline at −110, calling the price disrespectful given Seattle’s current form. The M's have captured eight straight series and 16 of their last 21 games while fielding MLB’s No. 1 offense against righties over the last three weeks (154 wRC+, league-best OPS, third-highest average, second-highest walk rate). Bryce Miller starts and, despite some Blake-Snell-style nibbling (19 walks), owns an 88th-percentile barrel rate and has allowed one or fewer earned runs in three of his last four outings. Luis Severino counters for the A’s and is living on borrowed time with a 285 xBA (16th percentile), eighth-percentile whiff rate and 38th-percentile chase rate—signals of looming regression. Seattle also brings a massive bullpen edge: Matt Brash is back, Andres Munoz is rested, and the unit grades out among the league’s best while Oakland’s relies almost solely on Mason Miller when ahead. The game is being played in Sacramento’s minor-league park, muting any Athletics home-field advantage, and travel favors Seattle (Texas to California versus Miami to the West Coast for Oakland). With a slight starting-pitcher edge, the hottest offense in baseball and bullpen dominance, the tout expects the Mariners to keep printing money at a near-even price.

Data Skrive said Monday’s series opener at Sutter Health Park "sets up as a sluggers’ duel" and called out Cal Raleigh’s league-leading 12 home runs. The model is riding Seattle on the moneyline (-114) and projects the total to go Over 9. With the computer expecting plenty of long-ball potential, Raleigh’s switch-hit power and everyday cleanup role make him a priority DFS catcher and a live HR-prop target in a game their algorithm already pegs to clear the number.