JD Bets took Seattle +1.5 runs at –140 despite Jacob deGrom looming for Texas. He pointed out that the Mariners own MLB’s #2 offense over the past two weeks (only the Dodgers have been better) and ride a six-game winning streak. Rookie Logan Evans impressed JD by allowing just two runs on two hits across five innings in his lone big-league start against a then–top-10 Marlins lineup. With the wind neutral in Arlington’s retractable-roof park and Seattle’s bullpen ranking top-6 in ERA, JD expects the M’s to stay within a run even if deGrom posts his typical strikeout totals. He is comfortable sprinkling the +150 money line but officially locked in the +1.5 run line for safer exposure.

The model boldly backs Seattle at +150 even though Jacob deGrom (2.73 ERA) takes the hill for Texas. It projects a 5-4 Mariners victory and the Under 8. Key factors include rookie Logan Evans’ solid 3.60 ERA, Seattle’s superior 20-12 record, and Texas’ beleaguered bullpen (4.78 ERA, bottom-10 in MLB). Globe Life Field has played neutral for offense in 2025, so limiting late scoring tilts the edge toward the deeper Seattle staff. All told, the simulation thinks deGrom’s premium price is overstated and makes Seattle a value underdog play.

Morgan pegged Logan Evans ($7,500) as an appealing salary saver. The rookie posted a 2.11 FIP in five Triple-A starts and allowed only two hits across five innings in his MLB debut versus Miami. He now faces a Texas offense that has been out-performed only by Colorado and Kansas City in run production, giving Evans sneaky strikeout and win equity while the Mariners wait for injured starters to return.

Guy Boston took the first-five UNDER 5.5 in Mariners-Rangers behind Luis Castillo and Patrick Corbin. Castillo’s two road starts hit overs only because Seattle plated 4 and 6 runs themselves; Boston still trusts the four-seamer against a Rangers offense ranked 27th in run value versus fastballs over the last 30 days. Corbin, maligned as usual, has cashed first-five unders in both home outings and brings a slider/sinker/cutter mix that should quiet Seattle provided he avoids the change-up (sub-10% usage), the lone pitch the M’s have crushed lately. Seattle’s recent surge feels like smoke and mirrors to him, and the 5.5 total gives both starters room for a couple of blemishes while still staying under.

Kenny G called the Seattle–Texas total of 8.5 runs a full half-run too high and labeled the under his favorite wager on Sunday’s card. He trusts rookie Logan Gilbert’s follow-up after allowing only two earned across five frames in his debut and likes the support of a Mariners bullpen that owns a 3.60 ERA. On the other side Jacob deGrom is rounding into form with three straight strong outings, and Texas’ offense has cratered to 29th in runs and 28th in OBP while scoring just four combined runs in its past four games. Kenny added that Globe Life Field trends extreme under—24-10 to the under for the Rangers this season—so a low-scoring script benefits both starters and offsets Seattle’s recently hot bats. He urged listeners to grab the remaining 8.5s before they disappear.

While the under is his primary play, Kenny G said Seattle is worth a small moneyline stab at +150 given the same low-scoring thesis. He argued that if runs are scarce, the superior bullpen (3.60 ERA vs Texas’ 4.08) and a suddenly explosive Mariners offense—sixth in MLB scoring and second in OBP after posting 14, 7 and 5 runs in three of their last four—give Seattle multiple paths to steal a close game. He also noted Jacob deGrom was tagged for three earned and two homers the last time he faced the M’s, whereas Logan Gilbert’s debut looked poised and attack-heavy. The Rangers have dropped four straight and sit 16-18 overall, so Kenny doubts they deserve a –180 price tag.

For the same matchup, Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the full-game UNDER. Friday’s opener produced 14 runs, but 13 came from Seattle—Texas cannot be trusted to contribute. DeGrom limited the M’s to three hits in their last meeting and has issued only one walk across his last three starts, suggesting a cleaner performance. Seattle averages 4.8 runs on Sundays, while Texas musters just 2.0. Both clubs travel immediately afterward, a classic spot for flat bats. Unless the Mariners carry the entire load again, runs project to be scarce, so he is on the UNDER.

Cash Out Sports Picks took the Seattle money line, arguing that recent form and matchup edges outweigh Jacob deGrom’s name value. Seattle has bludgeoned Texas in 2025—9-1 in the last 10 meetings and winning by an average of 5.8 runs. The Rangers have plated only three total runs across their last four games and have scored three or fewer in 10 of the previous 11, leading to 11 losses in their last 15. DeGrom’s surface numbers are solid (10 ER, 26 H in 33 IP), but the tout doubts it matters if Texas bats stay ice-cold. Rookie Emerson Evans showed poise in his five-inning debut and gets a Texas lineup ranking near the bottom of the AL in every hitting category. Seattle is 7-6 on the road, owns a comparable bullpen to Texas, and simply looks like the more complete club right now. Play: Mariners ML.

JD Bets laid the juice on Seattle’s moneyline at roughly -125, pointing to a perfect storm of form and matchup edges. The Mariners enter on a five-game heater and now sit first in the league in runs per game and walk rate. Meanwhile Texas has crashed to 28th in walk rate and has dropped four straight, prompting JD to label them "ice cold." He conceded Patrick Corbin’s surface numbers look improved (3,1,2,2 earned runs in his last four), but called it a mirage and expects the veteran lefty to "turn back into the pumpkin he is" against a lineup that owns a .334 wOBA versus southpaws. On the hill for Seattle is Luis Castillo, and although several Rangers carry solid career lines off him, JD still views Castillo as the clear pitching edge. With superior current form, better plate discipline, and the belief that Corbin’s early-season luck regresses, JD is confident backing the red-hot Mariners to keep rolling in Arlington.

Brad Francis went back to Seattle first-five minus a half-run. The Mariners have now covered that number in four straight meetings with Texas and just erupted for 13 runs in Friday’s opener. Francis added that Seattle’s lineup has been far more explosive on the road and likes their chances of jumping on Patrick Corbin early despite Corbin’s decent surface stats this year.

Bettor Mark locked in the Seattle Mariners moneyline at ‑130, citing his long-standing practice of fading Patrick Corbin starts. While Corbin’s surface stats look improved (2-1, 3.79 ERA), Mark noted underlying issues and does not trust the Rangers’ offense against Luis Castillo, whose swing-and-miss arsenal travels well. Sharp money appeared on Texas, but Mark views that as noise given Seattle’s superior road splits and bullpen edge. He expects Castillo to neutralize the heart of the Rangers’ order and believes the Mariners’ lineup generates enough support to cash the ticket.

Kenny G locked in Seattle -135, noting every key edge favors the visitors. The Mariners have ripped off five straight and seven of eight, powered by an offense that is ninth in runs and third in OBP after scoring 13, 9, 5, 7 and 14 in recent outings. Luis Castillo just spun six scoreless frames against Miami and carries a 3.62 ERA into Globe Life, backed by a solid 3.69 bullpen ERA. The Rangers are reeling—six losses in seven—while their lineup has fallen to 29th in runs and 28th in OBP, managing just 1, 0, 1, 15, 1 and 2 runs over the past week. Patrick Corbin’s 3.79 ERA looks fine on paper, but Kenny emphasized that both of his last two starts came against the lowly A’s and included 14 hits allowed. With a below-average Texas bullpen (4.12 ERA) waiting in the wings, Kenny expects Seattle’s hot bats to chase Corbin early and coast to a multi-run win.

Dylan Rockford grabbed the game under 8.5 at –115, pricing the total at 8. He argued that Texas simply is not scoring—ranking bottom-five in OPS over the past two weeks—and that Patrick Corbin has quietly limited every opponent to four runs or fewer while getting an early hook that shortens his exposure. Rockford trusts Luis Castillo to steady himself after a dominant six-inning, one-hit outing against Miami, especially against an ice-cold Rangers lineup. He also noted Globe Life Field suppresses homers by roughly 8% this season, giving each starter a little cushion. With the Mariners content to win 4-3 and Texas incapable of big innings, Rockford prefers the under to a side bet, projecting 4.2 total runs through the first five and 7.7 for the game.

Dylan Rockford locked in the Mariners moneyline, calling it an auto-bet given the current trajectory of both clubs. Rockford pointed to Seattle’s surprising ability to mash away from T-Mobile Park—.266 team average and roughly 5.5 runs per game on the road—while Texas has cratered to bottom-five in OPS over the last two weeks. He is actively fading veteran Patrick Corbin, who, despite a respectable 3.79 ERA, has not been trusted to work past five innings in any of his recent starts, forcing Bruce Bochy to expose a scuffling bullpen. On the other side, Luis Castillo has ironed out early road woes by tossing six scoreless against Miami his last time out and still carries a 31% strike-out rate that should play against a Rangers lineup that simply is not barreling the baseball. With Seattle’s sticks traveling, Castillo bouncing back, and Texas stuck in a 3-7 slump, Rockford graded the M’s as the superior side and was happy to lay short chalk as his "lock" of the show.

Scott Reichel laid the –135 with Seattle, saying the current price underrates how different these clubs look right now. The Mariners are actually hitting on the highway—.266 average and 5.5 runs per game—while Texas has crashed to 3-7 over its last ten because the lineup can’t clear four runs most nights. Reichel conceded Patrick Corbin’s 3.79 ERA has been a pleasant surprise, yet noted Bruce Bochy clearly does not trust him: the veteran has been yanked after exactly five innings in all but one start. Luis Castillo’s 8.68 road ERA looks ugly, but Reichel reminded listeners it comes from just two outings and that Castillo shoved six scoreless innings against Miami his last time out. With Seattle producing offense and Castillo likely to work deeper than Corbin, Reichel felt the moneyline should be closer to –150 and happily grabbed the cheap favorite.

Mike Maher said now is the moment to sell Nathan Eovaldi while the box-score ERA (2.21) still screams "ace." Eovaldi’s four-seam velocity has dropped two full ticks to 93.5 mph, and he clearly knows it—last season he threw the heater 37.4 % of the time, but that number is down to 28.5 % while the splitter has become his primary pitch. The quality-of-contact data is ugly: hitters have a .229 average against the fastball, yet the xBA is .379; his overall .183 AVG is paired with a .260 xBA, .282 SLG with a .456 xSLG, .227 wOBA with a .328 xwOBA, and a sparkling 2.21 ERA hiding a 4.08 xERA. Maher believes the league will catch up once hitters stop being fooled by the backwards pitch mix. Because fantasy managers are desperate for healthy starters, he recommends shopping Eovaldi for a safer everyday bat or younger, ascending arm before the regression storm arrives.

Brian Howard ultimately locked in Seattle –1.5 behind Luis Castillo. He acknowledged Patrick Corbin’s new sinker/four-seam mix but pointed to Corbin’s 46 % hard-hit rate and 1.8 HR/9. Castillo owns a 2.86 ERA, a strikeout-to-walk ratio over 4, and just one barrel allowed in his last three turns. Howard’s only hesitation was Seattle’s boom-bust offense, but after being quiet Friday he doubts they strike out 40-plus again. With the Mariners’ top-three bullpen and Corbin’s blow-up profile, he likes the run-line more than the –135 moneyline.

Seattle is forecast to win 5-4 and clear the 8.5 total. Luis Castillo’s 3.62 ERA faces Patrick Corbin’s surprising 3.79, but T-Mobile Park plus a superior 19-12 record keeps the Mariners the recommended side at -140. The model expects late-inning leverage from a top-3 bullpen to seal it.

It's The Final Round likes Marcus Semien to notch a hit (or more) versus Luis Castillo. In 13 prior at-bats, Semien is 4-for-13 with a homer (.308) off the Mariners’ ace. He’s also riding a 6-for-7 game hit streak. Given the combination of historical success and current form, the tout suggested taking Semien’s over on 1.5 total bases or using him in DFS stacks.

Cash Out Sports Picks played the full-game OVER, emphasizing that Seattle has cleared the number in nine of its last 10 contests and is single-handedly capable of pushing totals past the posted line thanks to a 7.5-runs-per-game tear. Although Texas’ bats have been cold, the tout said "we don’t need much from the Rangers"—just a couple of runs—to cash because the Mariners are carrying such a heavy offensive load.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended backing the Seattle Mariners on the moneyline, pointing to Seattle’s overwhelming recent edge in the series (9-1 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings). The tout noted Texas has lost four of its last five home games when priced as an underdog and continues to flail at the plate. Seattle, meanwhile, is averaging 7.5 runs per game over its past 10 and has routinely carried games over the total by itself. Even though Corbin has been "more solid than expected," the pick ultimately comes down to the Mariners’ red-hot offense versus a Rangers lineup that "can’t get anything going."

Martin laid the short –129 price on Seattle because Luis Castillo looks primed to carve up a slumping Rangers lineup. Castillo threw six shutout frames of one-hit ball against Miami in his last start and authored two quality starts (6 IP, 2 ER each) versus Texas a year ago. The Rangers have dropped two straight and sit bottom-five in MLB in wRC+ through 30 games, especially weak against right-handers. Texas counters with 35-year-old lefty Pat Corbin, who owns a 4.00 ERA/FIP and has been tagged for 24 hits in four starts; Martin called this a “last-gasp” stint for Corbin. Seattle’s bats are red-hot—No. 2 in both wRC+ and team OPS overall and over the past seven days—so Martin expects the M’s to extend their current four-game win streak in Arlington.

Welsh took Seattle –115 full-game moneyline with Bryan Woo on the hill. He highlighted Woo’s 1.59 ERA and 0.71 WHIP since returning from the IL plus a 30% CSW that matches any Ranger starter. Texas will be without Corey Seager (hand) and could be missing lineup depth with Jake Burger sidelined, shrinking the Rangers’ wRC+ against right-handed pitching to 95 over the last two weeks. Welsh trusts Seattle’s offense—up to a 120 wRC+ since May 1—to give Woo enough run support and prefers the full-game angle because the Mariners’ pen ranks third in ERA while Texas sits 20th.

Razzle prefers Bryan Woo over Jack Leiter. Woo has cut his walks, kept the ball in the park, and owns a 5.5 K prop at even money. Seattle sits as a slight –115 favorite while Texas bats have cooled—recently being shut down for multiple games by Oakland pitching. Razzle projects six solid innings and a path to 20+ DK points at sub-15% ownership.

JD Bets targeted Julio Rodriguez OVER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs for Friday in Arlington. Seattle’s offense is erupting—first in RBIs, walks, and home runs, third in hits, fifth in average, and second in runs over the last two weeks while riding a four-game win streak. Rodriguez has a tiny but loud sample versus Jack Leiter: two homers and five RBIs in just five career at-bats (.400 AVG, .800 SLG). Leiter’s outs prop looks playable because Texas needs length, yet the rookie has struggled to miss bats and is allowing a .300 average to right-handed hitters. JD thinks Julio’s boom-or-bust profile actually helps the over here—either he leaves the yard again or keeps rallies moving for an easy two counting stats. He called the 1.5 H+R+RBI line "too low for the way Seattle is swinging it."

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Seattle Mariners moneyline, stressing a clear edge at the plate and on the mound. Seattle has scored at least four runs in nine of its last ten contests (35 total in the most recent four) and owns a .754 team OPS, fifth-best in MLB. Texas, by contrast, has been held to three or fewer in seven of eight and sits 26th with a .650 OPS while drawing just 74 walks (29th). The tout highlighted Bryan Woo’s form—six earned over his last 20 innings, 16 H, 4 BB—and the Rangers’ 7-for-42 lifetime line against him. Jack Leiter’s shaky command (tagged by Seattle earlier and fresh off a rough outing) meets a Mariners lineup posting a .903 OPS and 168 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching across the past 10 days. Seattle has also won eight of the last nine head-to-head meetings, making the Mariners the play.

Kenny G labeled the under 8.5 in Mariners–Rangers his favorite bet of the night. He trusts Bryan Woo (3.09 ERA, 8-to-1 K-BB in his last start) and a 3.70 Seattle bullpen to keep Texas in check, noting the Rangers have scored 0, 1, 2, 2 and 2 in five of their last six and now sit 27th in runs and 28th in OBP. On the flip side, rookie Jack Leiter has posted a 2.03 ERA and 29% strikeout rate through three outings, giving each club a quality starter. Globe Life Field has been a pitcher’s park all season, with Texas games going an MLB-best 23-9 to the under at home. Kenny projects something like 4-3, sees Seattle’s slightly better bullpen as a tiebreaker for a modest Mariners –118 lean, but insists the total is the superior play.

Eric Lindquist played the first-five innings under 4.5 runs at ‑120 for Brian Wu versus Jack Leiter in Arlington. Lindquist raved about Leiter’s early-season bounce-back—his xwOBAcon has plummeted from an ugly .420 last year to .310 across three 2024 starts, and a 2.70 expected ERA is paired with only a 29.4 % hard-hit rate. Because Texas is still limiting Leiter’s pitch count coming off Tommy John, Lindquist actually views the inevitable bullpen work as a plus; he noted that relievers allow managers to hand-pick platoon advantages, which usually suppresses scoring in the early frames. With Globe Life’s roof expected to be closed—historically shaving several points off home-run park factor—he projects barely 3.7 combined runs through five and makes the under playable to ‑125.

Kirby declared Jorge Polanco "as close to fully real" as possible after a scorching .384/9/1 start. She highlighted a career-best 11.3% strikeout rate—well below his 19% norm—paired with a 42% hard-hit rate that mirrors his 2021 All-Star peak. Polanco’s expected batting average (.356 xBA) and expected slug (.645 xSLG) support the surface numbers, suggesting health is finally on his side after last year’s nagging hamstring issues. Kirby would trade for Polanco confidently, especially in leagues where he carries multi-position eligibility, viewing him as a top-12 fantasy second baseman and a sneaky buy-high before the wider market catches up.

Brad Francis called the Mariners his favorite play, noting they have won six straight against AL West foes and actually hit better on the road than at home. With Brian Wu taking the mound and the Rangers’ bats "just not hitting" after a poor series against Oakland, Francis expects Seattle to continue the streak and cash the money line.

Romanelli is betting the Mariners money-line because Jack Leiter’s command remains unreliable. In his first start back from injury the former No. 2 overall pick issued four walks in just 3.1 innings, continuing a career-long control problem that has followed him from the minors. Unfortunately for Leiter, Seattle owns the highest walk percentage against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks (11.9 %) while pairing it with an .868 OPS and .218 ISO. Bryan Woo gives Seattle a steadier arm, and the Rangers offense has been wildly inconsistent. Romanelli expects the patient Mariners to force Leiter into deep counts, chase him early, and cash as road favorites.

Pisapia’s first team-total play was Texas over its posted number (–108) against left-hander Jeffrey Springs. He pointed to the Rangers’ top-five wRC+ versus southpaws and the heart of the order—Seager, Langford, Garcia—owning ISOs north of .225 against changeup-heavy arms like Springs. With Globe Life Field boosting right-handed power and a middling Rays bullpen behind Springs, Pisapia expects Texas to score early and often, clearing the total.

Julio Rodriguez owns a 2-for-5 (.400) mark against Jack Leiter and has recorded a hit in seven of his last eight games. The tout likes him as a late-slate prop if the price is reasonable.

Marcus Semien owns a 5-for-11 (.455) line with a homer against Bryan Wu and carries a six-game hitting streak. The tout recommended Semien for single-game hit or total-base wagers.