Harrelson also played Junior Caminero over 1.5 total bases. Caminero has topped the number in eight of his last ten games while averaging 2.8 bases over that span. He’s 2-for-3 lifetime against Michael Lorenzen with both hits going for extra bases ( .666 AVG, 1.667 SLG ). The rookie is batting .280 versus right-handers compared to .264 overall, and the same righty-righty weakness in Lorenzen’s splits that benefits Diaz applies here. All six tracked sportsbooks—ESPN Bet, Hard Rock, Caesars, Novig, Fliff and Sleeper—have the over shaded, confirming market support for the play. With an average 4.4 plate appearances per game, Harrelson expects multiple chances for Caminero to cash.

Scott Reichel sided with Tampa Bay on the money line despite already liking the full-game Under. He argued that Kansas City’s lineup has scored fewer than three runs in three straight and simply lacks punch outside of Bobby Witt Jr. and a slumping Vinnie Pasquantino. Recent call-up Jackson Holliday is sitting on a .194 average with just one big game to his name. Even though Shane Baz has struggled of late, Reichel doubts the Royals can punish his occasional home-run issues because they rank near the bottom of MLB in long balls. Conversely, Tampa’s bats possess legitimate pop, giving the Rays a clear path to a lopsided win if Baz is merely average. With the number hovering around pick’em, Reichel felt the market was underrating the gap in offensive ceiling and overall roster quality, making Tampa the only side worth backing.

Diaz owns a 2-for-4 (.500) line off Michael Lorenzen and is now riding a 15-game hitting streak after cashing yesterday. It's The Final Round labeled him one of the safest hit-prop choices on the slate.

Caminero made the tout’s list thanks to a 2-for-3 (.667) and a homer versus Michael Lorenzen plus hits in eight of his last 10 outings. That blend of historical and recent success fits the model for a hit-parlay inclusion.

B Wade wrapped up his card with Junior Caminero over 1.5 total bases against Michael Lorenzen. Caminero has eclipsed the mark in eight of his last ten games and is averaging 2.8 total bases during that stretch. He’s also 2-for-3 with a homer versus Lorenzen, producing a 1.667 OPS in the tiny sample. After falling short last game, Wade anticipates a quick bounce-back in the plus matchup and loves the 6.6x payout being offered on Dabble.

B Wade said he is fading Shane Baz by taking the over on 2.5 earned runs allowed in Kansas City. Baz has surrendered at least three earned in eight of his last ten starts, and his season-worst outing came against these same Royals when he was shelled for seven earned on nine hits and three walks across five innings. With Tampa traveling to hitter-friendly Kauffman Stadium and KC ranking top-10 in home wRC+, Wade expects another rough appearance and believes the proper line should be closer to 3.5 earned runs.

The host listed Bobby Witt Jr. as a worthwhile add to hit parlays. Witt owns a .333 career line (3-for-9) off Drew Rasmussen and has logged a hit in seven straight contests (data current through June 23). That combination of recent consistency and mild BvP success made him one of only three supplemental matchups the tout trusted on a light board.

It’s The Final Round advised locking in Yandy Diaz for at least one hit against Michael Wacha. Wacha has allowed right-handed bats a .270 average over his last three starts – nothing brutal, but Diaz is scorching. Against righties the past 10 days Diaz sports a .550 average and he enters the contest on a 13-game hitting streak, 10 of which have been multi-hit efforts. The tout loves Diaz’s combination of elite recent form and contact skill versus an average matchup, calling it a high-floor prop play.

Perrault advised laying the short money-line price on Tampa Bay in Kansas City. The Rays have won four of their last five and are 17-12 away from Tropicana Field, while the Royals are just 19-20 at Kauffman. Drew Rasmussen (2.61 ERA overall, 3.86 on the road, 2-0 record) gives Tampa a reliable arm, and Perrault expects their lineup to scrape together enough runs off Michael Wacha. Although Wacha sports a 3.24 ERA, the Royals have dropped three of his past five starts, including a 6-4 loss to Oakland where he allowed five earned. Kansas City’s offense regularly stalls, scoring two runs or fewer in three of those five outings. Perrault projects a low-scoring 3-2 or 4-2 Rays victory, noting the under nine is viable but preferring the hotter team straight up.

Bryce Hunt said to take the Tampa Bay Rays first-five moneyline at 0.0 (push protection) because Drew Rasmussen is finally healthy and shoving. Rasmussen has leaned on a 96 mph four-seam, a heavy-cut usage, and a sinker that lets him work all quadrants; Hunt compared the fastball/cutter combo to a lite Mariano vibe. Kauffman Stadium’s spacious outfield further helps the right-hander by keeping the ball in the yard. Michael Wacha has ridden his elite change-up to good surface numbers for Kansas City, but Hunt trusts Tampa’s platoon wizardry to stack right-handed sticks such as Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero, a profile that historically neutralizes Wacha’s change. With the Rays back to their usual 90-win pace and Rasmussen on the bump, Hunt sees clear value over the first five frames and is laying one unit on the play.

Malcom Bamford played under 8.5 because both clubs have been low-scoring in this exact handedness split. Tampa is 14-7 to the under when facing lefties, while Kansas City sits 36-27 to the under versus righties. He concedes Taj Bradley’s start-to-start volatility (last four lines: 6-0-7-0 earned runs) but trusts Kris Bubic to keep the Rays contained and thinks a spacious Kauffman outfield plus fading late-summer humidity suppress scoring. With neither bullpen overly taxed and 8.5 a full run higher than his projection, Bamford sees value in holding his nose and riding the trend.

Lonte Smith split his stake between Royals first five and full-game money lines at +120 because he trusts Kris Bubic more than Taj Bradley in this matchup. Tampa is smashing righties lately (.320 average, 7.3 runs per nine last ten) but owns a bottom-five OPS versus lefties, and Bubic has been excellent at Kauffman Stadium, allowing just seven earned across his last six home starts. Smith admitted Bubic has yielded eight runs in his last two outings but noted those came on the road. He also cited Kansas City’s surprising dominance of the Rays—7-3 in the last ten meetings, including an April sweep—and believes familiarity helps the Royals while Tampa begins a heavy road-trip portion of its schedule after playing 50 of 78 at home.

Bill Harrelson backed Jake Mangum to go over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in Tuesday’s matchup, pointing to a red-hot stretch where the Rays outfielder has cleared this combo line in 9 of his last 10 games and 14 of his last 20. Even in the lone miss during that span—an 8-1 blowout loss to Baltimore—Mangum still recorded a base hit. He is averaging 4.4 plate appearances per game, giving him plenty of chances at the dish. DraftKings and Sleeper both list the over as the favored side, reinforcing Harrelson’s confidence that Mangum’s recent surge will continue.

Jay Yang advised betting the Tampa Bay Rays at +120 in their June 24 matchup with the Royals. He believes the public will flock to Kansas City after Taj Bradley’s disastrous last start (1.1 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 6 ER), but sees that as an overreaction. Royals lefty Kris Bubic is sliding as well—allowing 9 hits and 3 runs in 5 innings against Texas, then 6 hits, 5 runs, and 4 walks versus the Yankees. Tampa’s lineup is "hot" while Kansas City’s bats are "not," providing insurance even if Bradley is merely average. Bradley has historically handled the Royals, and Yang doubts Kansas City’s offense can offer enough support. All factors point to value on the underdog Rays moneyline.

Kenny G leaned toward Kansas City at –144 strictly because he wants no part of Taj Bradley right now. The 23-year-old right-hander has been rocked in three straight, ballooning to a 4.95 ERA while showing possible injury red flags. Tampa’s elite bullpen (3rd in MLB) and top-7 offense keep them competitive, but Kenny fears Bradley could dig an early hole against Kris Bubic, who sports a 2.12 ERA despite a couple of shaky June outings. The Royals’ bullpen has been solid (3.54 ERA) and K.C. is 23-15 to the under at home, but their anemic lineup (29th in runs) keeps the moneyline affordable. Kenny said he “cannot justify backing Taj Bradley,” so his advice is to fade the Rays and side with the Royals or stay away unless Tampa’s rookie shows signs of life.

Jay Yang outlined his bounce-back pitching strategy, using Taj Bradley as the test case. After a pitcher’s worst outing, the market usually fades him, creating positive expected value if the next matchup is favorable. Bradley’s slider-heavy arsenal has stifled Kansas City in the past—Royals hitters are just .147 against him—and KC’s offense remains league-average at best. With Tampa’s bats scorching and Bradley’s prior success versus this lineup, Yang sees an opportunity to re-invest while the public overreacts. He encouraged bettors to combine opponent history, recent form, and offensive trends to spot similar buy-low angles throughout the season.