Drew Martin said he is actively fading Clayton Kershaw in Wednesday's matinee at Cleveland and grabbed the Guardians at +110 for the first-five moneyline. Martin argued the 36-year-old lefty simply is not the same pitcher: his fastball now sits 88–89 mph and he was rocked for five earned in his season debut before a rain-shortened two-inning second start. Martin believes markets still price Kershaw like the future Hall-of-Famer he was, not the version we see today. On the flip side, 25-year-old prospect Slade Cecconi owns a 3.00 ERA with a 14-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio through two starts, giving Cleveland a live arm early. Because the Dodgers still hold clear lineup and bullpen edges, Martin cut the wager to the first five innings to isolate the starting-pitching matchup. Play: Guardians 1H ML +110.

Bamford laid the Dodgers moneyline at –135 despite Clayton Kershaw still ramping up. The core angle is handedness: Cleveland is 2-9 straight-up against left-handed pitching, while Los Angeles owns a 26-12 record versus right-handers like Slade Cecconi. Bamford argued those stark splits outweigh any workload concerns for Kershaw, making the short price on LA worthwhile.

Scott Reichel recommended fading Clayton Kershaw by playing his earned-runs prop Over. Kershaw’s season debut produced five runs on five hits and three walks in just four innings against the Angels, and Reichel saw nothing in the underlying metrics—two strikeouts, diminished velocity—to suggest an immediate rebound. The Mets are 17-5 at Citi Field, own the league’s second-highest home wRC+, and draw a bullpen that has logged the eighth-most innings in May. With Anaheim call-up Griffin Canning dealing on the other side, Reichel expects Dave Roberts to let Kershaw "wear it" a bit longer than usual, forecasting at least four earned runs allowed.

Dan Holmes recommended betting Yes Runs First Inning at ‑125 for Dodgers–Mets, arguing that Clayton Kershaw’s steep late–career decline makes him vulnerable right out of the gate. Holmes noted Kershaw has managed only one quality start since June 27 2023 and has appeared in just eight games since September 2023. He expects the balanced Mets lineup to take advantage immediately. Even though New York sends the red-hot Griffin Canning (5-1, 2.47 ERA in nine starts) to the mound, a single early run from either side cashes the ticket, and Holmes believes the shaky version of Kershaw provides that path.

Croucher recommended betting the game total over 8.0, hinging on the expectation that an unsharp Clayton Kershaw pushes this toward a slugfest. The left-hander’s velo was down 1.6 mph and he generated only three swinging strikes in his first start back from multiple shoulder and elbow procedures. Meanwhile Freddie Freeman is on a torrid 31-for-75 (.413) run in May and faces a right-handed fly-ball pitcher in Canning who owns a 42% hard-hit rate. Even with Juan Soto scuffling, Croucher pointed out that New York ranks top-10 in MLB in walk rate, a problem for a dodgy Kershaw who issued three free passes last outing. Weather models show a 9 mph breeze out to right, adding roughly 4% to home-run probability. Despite the Dodgers being 4-1 to the under in their last five versus NL opponents, the projection model spits out 8.7 runs, giving a full three-quarters of a run worth of value on the over.

Chris Welsh said Clayton Kershaw is expected to be activated this week after tossing six no-hit frames in his final Triple-A rehab outing. Welsh cautioned that several balls were scorched to the warning track and noted the veteran allowed louder contact than the line suggests. Because the Dodgers will almost certainly keep him on a modest pitch count in the first start and wins are the only bankable category, Welsh advised picking Kershaw up everywhere but sitting him initially in roto or H2H leagues that count ratio stats. He added that the Dodgers’ soft NL West cushion gives the club no reason to push Kershaw beyond 75–80 pitches until he proves fully healthy.