Kenny G is fading the Angels at +154 and backing Cleveland at -185, citing Kyle Hendricks’ 5.23 ERA and pronounced volatility away from home. Hendricks has been shelled in back-to-back outings by the Marlins and A’s, and he now hands the game to the league’s worst bullpen (6.11 ERA, tied with Oakland). Offensively, Los Angeles is ice-cold—scoring 0,4,0,2,1,0,2 runs over its last seven—and ranks 21st in runs, 27th in average. Kenny expects the Guardians’ rookie Slade Cecconi (1-1, 3.27 ERA) to replicate the form he showed in Detroit (6 IP, 1 ER) rather than his shaky debut. While Cleveland’s 4.07 bullpen ERA and bottom-third offense (22nd in runs and slugging) are concerns, Kenny believes they are still superior to an Angels club that is 18-12 to the over on the road only because their pitching implodes. Play: Guardians money line, essentially a "fade Hendricks on the road" position.

Guy Boston Sports locked in the first-five under 4.5 (-109) between Cleveland and the Angels, citing two extreme ground-ball artists. Jose Soriano owns a 4.1 GB/FB rate overall and 3.9 on the road, while Luis Ortiz posts a healthy 1.2 mark at home. Both lineups profile as fly-ball heavy—Cleveland struggles if it can’t elevate and the Angels put the ball in the air against righties on the road—so a steady diet of sinkers should keep the scoreboard quiet early. Recent form backs it up: Soriano has stayed under this number in four of six road starts; Ortiz in three of four at home. Team trend data from his proprietary dashboard shows the Angels averaging 0.3 first-five runs and Cleveland 1.67 over their last three games. With neither pitcher missing bats but piling up worm-killers, he expects five clean innings before the bullpens take over, making the F5 under his lone official play for this game.

Kenny G said his primary play for Angels-Guardians is the OVER 8 runs. Luis Ortiz was tagged for seven hits and three earned in a 6-2 loss the last time he saw Los Angeles, and the Cleveland bullpen has slipped to a 4.00 ERA after being a top-10 unit in 2024. On the other side, Jose Soriano allowed five earned the only time he faced the Guardians this season and owns just a 19.4 % strikeout rate. Neither lineup is elite—Cleveland sits 21st in runs, the Angels 17th—but recent signs point up: the Guardians have scored 7, 5 and 7 in three of their last five, while the Angels are 18-12 to the OVER on the road. Progressive Field trends lower (13-11-1 to the UNDER), yet both starters’ poor history and a leaky Guardians pen make Kenny comfortable betting runs instead of a side. He called the OVER “extremely live” and the only thing from this game likely to hit his pinned comment.

Drew Martin recommended taking the Angels-Guardians under 8 runs. He pointed out that Los Angeles has dropped five straight while managing only three total runs over its last four contests. Cleveland’s bats are not much better, ranking bottom-10 in season-long production and again in the past week, especially versus right-handed pitching. On the mound, 99-mph fire-baller Jose Soriano brings a 3.70 ERA/FIP for the Angels, and Luis Ortiz already limited L.A. to three earned over six frames in their first meeting. With both lineups in prolonged slumps and Ortiz showing a serviceable track record against this opponent, Martin projected a 3-2 or 4-2 type finish and played the under before it possibly dips to 7.5.

Shubham Soni labeled Taylor Ward a classic boom-or-bust home-run prop at +450, citing a healthy 16.6% barrel rate and 47% hard-hit percentage that remain intact despite Ward’s batting-average dip. Guardians righty Luis L. Ortiz owns a 4.73 ERA and has yielded nine homers in 45.2 innings, with xSLG north of .480 to right-handed bats. Soni argued Ortiz’s tendency to miss up in the zone plays directly into Ward’s pull-side power, and the Angels’ cleanup man already has 15 homers on the season. A warm evening in Anaheim with slight out-blowing winds provides an extra nudge toward the over.

Peterson bet Over 8 runs after making the total 8.7. Guardians right-hander Luis Ortiz owns a 4.73 ERA and issues 4.7 walks per nine, while Angels starter Jose Soriano pairs a 3.73 ERA with nearly as many walks (4.3/9) as strikeouts (6.8/9). Any early exit for Soriano exposes an Angels bullpen that ranks dead last in MLB with a 6.17 ERA. With two control-challenged starters and a relief unit that routinely pours gasoline on fires, Peterson expects both offenses to cash in quickly.

Kenny G prefers UNDER 9 runs in Anaheim. He trusts Yusei Kikuchi’s recent heater—four straight wins, 1.29 ERA—and has zero faith in an Angels lineup that has scored 0-1-0-2 runs its last four games while ranking 28th in OBP and 26th in average. Even if Clark Schmidt wobbles, New York’s top-five bullpen can bail him out. The Yankees are 13-11-2 to the under on the road, and Angel Stadium totals have split 11-11-1, so Kenny calls nine runs "a gift" given how one-sided the offenses are and how well both starting pitchers are throwing right now.

Malcolm Bamford told listeners he is sprinkling the Angels moneyline at +140 against the Yankees, even though he already bet the full-game over. Bamford’s main angle is fading Clark Schmidt’s ugly road profile—6.75 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and a 10% walk rate that turns every inning into traffic—and a New York bullpen that has thrown 110 high-leverage pitches the last two nights. He expects Yusei Kikuchi to work bulk innings behind an opener, giving Los Angeles a left-handed look that has kept the Yankee lineup near league average versus southpaws. The Halos, meanwhile, own a .760 OPS in Anaheim and will hit nine full innings as the underdog. Bamford projected a 6-5 type game and personally made the Angels +120, calling the available +140 ‘too big to pass up.’

Rockford likes Los Angeles in the first five and is betting the Angels’ team total over 4.5 thanks to Clark Schmidt’s road blow-ups. Schmidt carries a ghastly 6.75 ERA away from Yankee Stadium, while his 1.54 WHIP leads to constant traffic. Rockford pointed out that every Yusei Kikuchi start has flown over the closing total, so he is comfortable playing offense on both sides but prefers isolating the Halos because they own a .760 home OPS and should bat nine full innings as the underdog. His model spit out 5.3 projected runs for L.A. against Schmidt plus New York’s middle relief.

Eric Lindquist flagged Zach Neto OVER 1.5 total bases as a value prop against Yankees right-hander Clarke Schmidt. Neto is quietly mashing atop the Angels order with a 50.5 % hard-hit rate, absurd 543 xwOBAcon and 606 expected slugging, yet books keep pricing him like the rest of L.A.’s sputtering lineup. Schmidt’s 27 % K rate is legit, but he leans heavily on a sweeper that lefties have handled (190 ISO allowed) and he owns just a 36 % ground-ball rate overall, giving Neto multiple paths to a double or pair of singles. Lindquist expects the market to shade the Angels roster downward, so anything (+125) or better on Neto 2+ bases is a "like" for Wednesday.

Malcolm Bamford went the opposite direction, targeting a Yankees team-total over (projected 4.5) and a Yes-Run-First-Inning prop that has cashed in 9 of Tyler Anderson’s 10 starts. Anderson has surrendered 14 runs on 21 hits in his last two outings and is allowing a .314 opponent average the first time through the order. New York owns a .272 wOBA versus lefties overall but spikes to .310 on the road and has hit southpaws in six straight series. Bamford expects the Bronx lineup to punish Anderson early—he forecasted 6-1 or 7-1 type final scores—while Rodon limits Anaheim, allowing both overs and Lonte’s under to coexist.

Jenstad raved about Zach Neto’s across-the-board production: 8 homers and 8 steals in just 33 games, driven by a 50 % hard-hit rate and 17 % barrel rate. Despite a 28 % strike-out clip that mirrors the Angels’ team philosophy, Neto is slashing .326/.364/.636 since activation and has scored 28 runs during that span. Jenstad said only three or four shortstops would come off the board before Neto if drafts were held today, making him a must-start in all formats and a legitimate buy-high target for managers needing both power and speed.

Scott Jenstad said Taylor Ward belongs at the very top of this week’s pickup list after an outrageous May in which the outfielder has already launched 9 homers and driven in 27 runs. Jenstad acknowledged Ward’s profile remains "boom-or-bust"—his average launch angle keeps the BABIP volatile—but emphasized that fantasy managers cannot ignore the counting-stat avalanche. Ward is locked into the No. 3 spot in an Angels lineup that just rattled off an eight-game winning streak and quietly paces the league in runs scored since May 1. Even if the batting average settles around .255, Jenstad thinks Ward’s combination of everyday volume, above-average hard-hit rate, and the license Phil Nevin gives him to swing early in counts puts a 30-plus homer, 90-RBI season firmly in play. He recommended double-digit FAAB bids in 12-team mixers and labeled Ward a core cash-game piece on next week’s thin Monday slate where he’ll face two soft Oakland right-handers at Angel Stadium.

Soni labeled Logan O’Hoppe the night’s top HR prop value at +450. The Angels catcher has erupted for 5 homers and 12 RBI over his last 8 games, slashing .375 with a 1.269 OPS. Statcast power indicators back it up: a 53.3% hard-hit rate and eye-popping 20% barrel rate per plate appearance. With Edward Cabrera’s 5.50 ERA on deck, Soni sees 'undeniable value' in betting O’Hoppe to go deep again.

Soni pushed Taylor Ward’s +400 homer prop, pointing to a torrid 12-game stretch (7 HR, 20 RBI, .375 AVG, 1.377 OPS). The Angels outfielder faces Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera (5.50 ERA) who has struggled to neutralize right-handed power. Ward’s 18 hits in his last 48 at-bats and balanced on-base skills make him, in Soni’s words, a 'prime threat to leave the yard' again tonight.

Austin Swaim’s favorite HR prop is Jorge Soler to go deep at +430. In 147 ABs versus righties, Soler owns a .761 OPS, .197 ISO, 42.2% fly-ball rate, and 82.4% medium-plus contact, and he homered last night. Cal Quantrill sits in the 30th percentile or worse for hard-hit rate (44.7%) and barrel rate (10.6%) while allowing 38.9% fly balls, explaining a 1.32 HR/9. Soler’s career 17.8% HR/FB rate (16.3% this year) hints at positive regression, and Angel Stadium is MLB’s fourth-best park for home runs. FanDuel Research projects 0.29 HRs for Soler, making fair odds roughly +297, so Swaim loves the +430 ticket.

Austin Swaim laid the -1.5 run line with the Angels at +116 despite the team’s eight-game win streak making it look like chalk. Cal Quantrill brings a 5.88 xERA, 16.4% K rate, and 1.32 HR/9 into the matchup, then hands off to MLB’s worst bullpen by SIERA (4.21). Angels starter Jose Soriano sports a 4.16 xERA and elite 63.7% ground-ball rate, a great fit against a Miami lineup already 10th-worst in ground-ball rate (43.6%). Swaim expects Los Angeles to win by multiple runs and keep the streak rolling.

Kenny G recommended laying –135 with the Angels despite Kyle Hendricks’ ugly 5.32 ERA. He argued Hendricks has been "decent" in four of his last five and now draws a Miami offense ranked 23rd in runs and trending under 4 runs per game (6-5-4-1-1-8-5). The bigger edge, according to Kenny, is fading Edward Cabrera and the Marlins’ bullpen. Cabrera owns a 5.50 ERA and struggled versus the Cubs, while Miami’s relief unit sits sixth-worst in MLB at 5.09. The Halos’ pen is even worse (league-worst 6.57), which is why Kenny leans over nine as well, but he trusts an Angels lineup that has popped 16 homers from Taylor Ward and averages 5.3 runs at home to outslug Miami. Supporting angles: the Marlins are 6-15 on the road and 14-7 to the over away, whereas Los Angeles is .500 at home and 11-8-1 to the over. Kenny projects a 6-4 or 7-5 type victory and believes the modest price is justified by Miami’s bullpen disadvantage and Hendricks’ bounce-back potential.

While passing on an official parlay, JD Bets leaned toward the Angels moneyline at –165. Los Angeles rides an eight-game winning streak and an 8-2 record over its last ten, whereas Miami has dropped three straight despite a recent uptick in hits. JD noted that bettors are effectively backing the hottest offense on the Saturday slate against a Marlins club still struggling to convert contact into wins. With momentum squarely on the Halos’ side and no significant weather or bullpen concerns, he said the Angels are the clear side for anyone comfortable laying the moderate juice.

JD Bets pounded Jose Soriano UNDER 5.5 strikeouts for Saturday’s start against Miami. Soriano has topped six punch-outs just once in his last ten turns, averaging 4.6 over that span and 4.8 in his most recent five. The Marlins’ lineup simply doesn’t whiff enough to bail him out—Miami is fifth-best in strikeout rate and has fanned only 7.2 times per game across the last ten. JD argued that expecting Soriano to suddenly reach six Ks in this contact-heavy matchup is unrealistic, especially since his 4A stuff profile rarely generates double-digit whiff totals. With the books still hanging 5.5, he called the under a “winner” and made it an official play.

Lonte Smith’s favorite angle in Marlins-Angels is the Over 8.5. He pointed to Quantrill’s 6.37 season ERA and 1.67 road WHIP, noting the right-hander has already surrendered 15 walks in four May starts and gives up loud contact when forced into the zone. On the other side, Jose Soriano’s control disappears at times—11 free passes in his last three outings—which could hand Miami extra base-runners. Smith reminded listeners that the Marlins’ lineup is quietly league-average in wRC+ since May 1 and should capitalize on Soriano’s volatility, while the red-hot Angels have scored 44 runs during their seven-game winning streak. With both bullpens taxed after multiple high-leverage games this week, he expects late-inning fireworks and projected a 6-5 final, making anything under 9 a bet.

Cash Out Sports Picks took the Los Angeles Angels moneyline, arguing that matchup edges at the plate outweigh any concerns on the mound. The Angels have blistered righties for a league-best .858 OPS and 142 wRC+ over the last 10 days, while Miami sits at a respectable but inferior .782 OPS and 113 wRC+. Although Cal Quantrill has trimmed his ERA in May, the Halos’ lineup is already 28-for-88 off him with six extra-base hits, and Taylor Ward in particular is 5-for-9 with four runs driven in. On the other side, Jose Soriano has surrendered at least three earned runs in five of his last seven outings and must hand the ball to a Marlins bullpen sporting a 5.46 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .300 BAA across its last 10 days. Los Angeles’ relief unit is no fortress either (4.76 ERA, 1.73 WHIP), but Cash Out trusts the hotter sticks and the familiarity advantage to tilt a likely shootout in the Angels’ favor.

Cash Out Sports Picks flagged Taylor Ward as a go-to play for Saturday slates and hitter props. The tout pointed out that Ward owns a sizzling 5-for-9 line with 4 RBI against Cal Quantrill and just launched a grand slam Thursday in Oakland. Los Angeles, as a team, has torched right-handed pitching lately with a .858 OPS and 142 wRC+ over the last 10 days, and Ward has ridden that surge with a 46% hard-hit rate during the same window. Quantrill may have steadied in May, but Miami's bullpen still carries a 5.46 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over the past 10 days, so Ward should see at least one at-bat against a shaky relief corps on top of his plus history versus the starter. Cash Out expects multiple run-producing opportunities and recommended Ward in DFS cash builds plus over 1.5 total bases or to record an RBI in the prop market.

Scott Reichel laid the –1.5 with the Angels at +130, citing everything breaking L.A.’s way right now. The Halos have ripped off seven straight wins, sweeping both the Dodgers and A’s, and are back within a game of .500. He wants to fade Cal Quantrill’s brutal road profile (7.36 ERA, 18 earned runs across his last three away outings) and 1.61 WHIP that balloons whenever he falls behind in the count. Jose Soriano has been uneven (3.55 ERA overall, 5.95 at home) but Reichel likes the pattern—three earned, zero earned, three earned, zero earned—and thinks he’s “due” for a quality start. With Mike Trout, Taylor Ward and Logan O’Hoppe all slugging .500+ over the past week, Reichel projected the Angels to plate five or six early and coast to a 6-3 type victory, making the plus-money run-line too good to pass up.

Scott Reichel backed Taylor Ward to leave the yard against Sandy Alcantara. Ward already sits at 14 homers after another blast Thursday and ranks top-15 in barrels per plate appearance. Alcantara’s road numbers are grim—14.81 ERA, 40% hard-hit rate, seven homers allowed in just 10.1 innings—and Angel Stadium will have a mild breeze out to left on Friday. Reichel added that Miami’s bullpen carries the seventh-worst HR/FB rate, giving Ward an extra plate appearance or two against another homer-prone unit. He’s playing Ward’s home-run prop down to +350 and pairing it with the Angels’ team total Over 4.5.

Lonte Smith called Jo Adell’s stolen-base prop one of his favorite angles Friday night. Miami’s Sandy Alcantara has long struggled to control the run game and is allowing 0.48 steals per inning this year. Adell owns 97th-percentile sprint speed and has attempted a swipe once every 13 times on base in 2024. With Alcantara’s road ERA ballooning to 14.81 and his walk rate spiking (10 BB in 10.1 IP away from Miami), Smith anticipates plenty of traffic for Los Angeles hitters. The rookie outfielder is being offered at +300 in most markets; Smith would play anything north of +220 and sprinkled a same-game combo with the Angels’ team total Over, expecting multiple stolen-base opportunities against Miami’s battery.

Reichel is isolating the first five innings with the Angels at ‑0.5 runs behind Yusei Kikuchi. The lefty owns a 1.65 ERA at home and Los Angeles is 3-0 in his last three starts despite the bullpen coughing up two wins. Miami counters with Sandy Alcantara, whose 7.99 ERA includes an eye-popping 14.81 mark on the road (10.1 IP, 17 ER, 10 BB). Alcantara has surrendered four or more earned in four straight and cannot control the running game—Reichel expects the Angels, who have scored 6+ in five of their last six, to exploit that immediately. With L.A. riding a six-game winning streak and a 7-3 stretch overall, he projected a 4-1 score after five and would lay up to ‑130 on the half-run.

Chris Ruffolo said Yusei Kikuchi profiles as a sneaky DFS play on Friday because Miami has historically struggled against left-handed pitching. Ruffolo pointed out that despite Kikuchi’s solid 3.50 ERA, he sits at 0-4 only because the Angels rarely give him run support. He highlighted Kikuchi’s most recent outing versus the Dodgers (5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 H) as evidence the southpaw is throwing well. The Marlins, meanwhile, rank near the bottom of MLB in wOBA versus lefties and bring minimal power to punish mistakes. Ruffolo acknowledged Kikuchi’s walk issues—four free passes in three of his last six starts—but still expects six competitive innings with a chance at 6-8 strikeouts, making him an under-rostered tournament option.

Cash Out Sports Picks fired on the Angels money-line. Los Angeles rides a six-game win streak and ranks 7th in May OPS (.771). Yusei Kikuchi owns a 1.65 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home, while Sandy Alcantara has been dreadful on the road (0-3, 14.81 ERA, .391 BAA). Even without Mike Trout, Logan O’Hoppe and Taylor Ward have combined for 26 HR, keeping the lineup humming. Miami’s bullpen (5.11 ERA) offers no relief behind a starter who has yielded 20 runs in his last 18.1 frames. With a massive pitching split and the hotter offense, the tout expects the Halos to keep rolling.

Peterson laid -1.5 at +140 (priced +119) with the Angels. Sandy Alcantara’s nightmare season features a 7.99 ERA, 1.5 HR/9 and 5 BB/9, backed by a Marlins bullpen sporting a 5.11 ERA (26th). Yusei Kikuchi gives Los Angeles a 3.50 ERA baseline despite a 4.43 FIP, and the Angels lineup should feast on Miami’s pitching woes. Even with L.A.’s league-worst 6.66 bullpen ERA, Peterson expects an early cushion big enough to cover the run line.

Jensen also recommended Over 10 runs at -110, grading it a three-star play. Yesterday’s matchup produced 15 runs, and the Angels have become an offensive juggernaut during their six-game heater. They’ve gone deep in 11 straight contests while the A’s showed their own pop with Nick Kurtz’s two-homer game on Wednesday. Sutter Health Park’s hitter-friendly dimensions, overworked bullpens, and Luis Severino’s long-ball issues further support a high-run environment. Jensen believes those factors combine to make the Over a solid supplemental wager.

Joe Jensen advised backing the Los Angeles Angels moneyline at +128 in Game 4 versus Oakland on May 22. He thinks the books are over-valuing home field and Luis Severino’s name recognition. The Angels enter on a six-game win streak, have homered in 11 straight (15 total bombs during the streak), and have scored 6+ runs in every game of this series. By contrast, the Athletics have lost eight straight, been out-scored 62-21 in that span, and surrendered 38 runs on their current five-game homestand. Jensen prefers Tyler Anderson (2-1, 3.04 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) to Severino (1-4, 4.22 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) and noted Severino’s vulnerability to the long ball. He would play the Angels down to +110, calling it one of Thursday’s best values.

Michael Savio recommended taking the Angels ML at +135 in Oakland, leaning on both recent form and the starting-pitcher edge. He acknowledged Tyler Anderson’s ugly outing against the Dodgers but emphasized his season totals (2-1, 3.04 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) and dominant home splits: 2.51 ERA with a .190 opponent batting average. The Athletics own just a .167 collective average against Anderson over 48 career at-bats. Meanwhile Oakland’s offense is ice-cold, slashing .181/.549 over the last week. Luis Severino offers little relief, sitting at 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in May. Savio also flagged the broader momentum — Los Angeles just swept the Dodgers and has controlled this four-game set — while the A’s are mired in their worst slump of the year. With a clear pitching advantage and the hotter bats, he believes the Halos should not be priced as underdogs.

Rockford sees value in the red-hot Angels at +140 in Oakland. L.A. just shocked everyone by sweeping the Dodgers and rides a four-game win streak, while the Athletics have cratered to 2-8 over their last ten and own an ugly 10-19 record at the Coliseum. Jack Kicanovich has quietly strung together back-to-back quality starts (12.2 IP, 2 ER) despite occasional walk issues, and J.P. Sears is merely serviceable with a 3.31 ERA but a bare-bones 1.10 WHIP. Both bullpens rank bottom-five in FIP, so Rockford wants the plus-money side of a likely shoot-out rather than laying –160 with a slumping home team. He will sprinkle the moneyline now and consider an in-game hedge if the Angels grab an early lead.

It’s The Final Round likes Zach Neto to stay hot against J.P. Sears: Neto is 4-for-7 (.571) with a homer off the Oakland lefty and has collected hits in 20 of his last 23 games.

Soni tabbed Zach Neto at +310 to go deep in Oakland. Neto is slashing .278/.333/.492 with seven homers and 16 RBI, and Soni said recent plate appearances show his timing “dialed in.” The matchup is the draw: an Athletics pitching staff with one of the league’s worst HR/FB rates. Even in the spacious Coliseum, Soni trusts Neto’s above-average pull-side fly-ball percentage to overcome the park and cash the ticket.

John Venezia urged managers not to let Taylor Ward remain on waivers simply because of his .196 average and .682 OPS. Ward already has 11 home runs and has gone 8-for-24 (.333) with three homers over his last six games, signaling another one of his familiar hot streaks. After posting 25 bombs last season, Ward projects to finish 2025 with a more palatable .240-.260 average once the cold spells level out. Venezia views the current 55% roster rate as too low and recommended bench-stashing Ward now so you have him active when the power binge continues.

Peterson projected 10.7 runs and played Over 10 in Oakland. Angels starter Kyle Hendricks carries a 5.18 ERA that balloons to 6.38 on the road, giving up 1.5 HR and 3.5 BB per nine. A’s rookie Gunnar Hoglund has impressed with a 3.78 ERA through three MLB outings, but Peterson pointed out the warning signs: a 5.13 FIP and four homers allowed in just 16.2 innings. Once the starters exit, things get ugly—Los Angeles owns the league’s worst bullpen ERA (7.06) and Oakland sits 28th at 5.82. With two homer-prone arms to open and two gas-can pens to close, Peterson expects plenty of runs on both sides.

Shubham Soni recommended Taylor Ward at +370 even against Dodgers right-hander Tony Gonsolin. Ward has launched 3 homers in his last 5 games and owns a 40.2 % hard-hit rate with healthy barrel numbers. Soni argued that a hitter riding this kind of momentum only needs one mistake, and the market is pricing in Gonsolin’s reputation more than Ward’s current power tear.

Kenny G labeled Over 9 as “extremely live” in the Freeway finale. The first two games have already produced track-meet scores (Angels 9-7 leading in game two), and both bullpens are running on fumes—LAA ranks near the bottom all year, while LAD’s ERA has crept to 3.73. Starter Yusei Kikuchi (0-4, 3.72) flashes upside but rarely works deep, and Tony Gonsolin is making just his fourth start after facing the light-hitting Marlins twice. The Dodgers remain first in runs and average, yet injuries and bullpen attrition leave them vulnerable late. Meanwhile the Angels’ lineup—dead-last in OBP for the season—has suddenly erupted, scoring 18 runs across the first two contests and looking "locked in" for bragging-rights stakes. Stadium trends point the same way: Dodger Stadium is 14-8 to the over, and the Halos are 13-11 to the over on the road. With depleted relief options and two aggressive offenses, Kenny prefers the total to any side and will gladly bet runs.

Joe Osborne doubled-down on fading Kyle Hendricks by playing over 1.5 walks in Wednesday’s start at Petco. Osborne reminded viewers that Hendricks’ 5.30 ERA is being propped up by shaky command: the veteran has issued at least two free passes in five of his last six outings, including three different starts with three-plus walks. San Diego is a nightmare matchup for a pitcher struggling with location—Padres right-handed batters are drawing walks at the third-highest clip in MLB over the past two weeks and rank second in overall OPS against righties during that span. Osborne expects Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. to extend counts, inflating Hendricks’ pitch total and forcing manager Ron Washington to pull him early, which makes the 1.5 line too low. He noted that bettors can correlate this wager with his previously stated under 15.5 outs play or even build a plus-245 parlay, but he is comfortable firing on the walk prop as a standalone fade.

Osborne played Kyle Hendricks under 15.5 outs in Anaheim’s matchup with the Padres. Hendricks sports a 5.30 ERA and has been tagged for 12 earned runs across his last two road starts. The right-hander’s most recent trip to Petco came early last season, when the Padres hung seven earned on him. He has stayed under 16 outs in five of seven 2024 appearances, and the assignment is no easier against a San Diego offense that sits second in OPS versus right-handed pitching over the past two weeks. Osborne does not expect Hendricks to survive five full frames.

Kyle Purviance said the first number he grabbed for Wednesday’s Angels-Padres clash was the over 8.5 runs (-122 and likely to hit 9 by first pitch). He called both starters 'two bad pitchers'—Randy Vasquez owns a 5.92 ERA with a 15 % K-rate while Kyle Hendricks has already surrendered 10 homers in 34 innings with a 1.59 WHIP. Purviance added that each bullpen sits bottom-5 in xFIP, so ‘even if the starters survive, the relievers will pour gas on it.’ San Diego’s top-10 offense should supply most of the damage, but Purviance expects Los Angeles to tag Vasquez for at least four because the right-hander’s four-seam has been hit at a .404 xwOBA. He plans to sprinkle Jackson Merrill RBI props as a correlate and urged bettors to lock in 8.5 before the number disappears.

Welsh is backing Jose Soriano to record at least four strikeouts (over 3.5 at –110) even though the Padres strike out less than any team in baseball. Soriano has topped that mark in all but two of his starts this season and just fanned six Diamondbacks—another low-K lineup—thanks to a power sinker/curveball mix that hitters chase 34% of the time. Because the number is so modest, Welsh views it as "a battle I’m willing to fight," trusting Soriano’s 24% K-rate more than San Diego’s contact skills.

Polzin recommended fading Jorge Soler against Dylan Cease. In 20 prior at-bats versus Cease, Soler is 0-for-20 with a staggering 12 strikeouts and 4 walks. That means Soler has put the ball in play only 4 times in the matchup. Cease’s high-spin slider and four-seamer both sit in Soler’s cold zones, leading Polzin to project another multi-strikeout night and an UNDER on Soler fantasy points.

They also played the UNDER, highlighting multiple trends: Padres-vs-AL games 12-6 to the under; Padres home favorites 8-4-1 to the under; Angels road OPS languishing with a .213 average. Cease has stymied this roster (35.4% whiff rate) and rarely allows homers, while Soriano’s 62.8% ground-ball clip suppresses splash plays. As long as Soriano survives five-plus frames, the tout expects the contest to finish beneath seven runs.

Guy Boston advised taking the Angels team total under 2.5 runs at +105 (or under 1.5 in the first five at –150) against Michael King. King mixes four pitches at 25 % apiece, and the Angels grade poorly against three of them—fastball, slider and change—ranking bottom-10 in wOBA for each. In 33 previous plate appearances, current Angels own a .067 average and 33 % strikeout rate versus King. Boston’s model makes the F5 under 1.5 –168, so he sees meaningful edge even at the juiced price, and added that Petco Park will have a 12-mph left-to-right wind suppressing offense.

Guy Boston recommended taking Luis Rengifo UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (books were hanging –110 to –115) as a direct way to attack Michael King. Boston reminded listeners that King’s four–pitch, 25-percent-each arsenal has chewed up the Halos as a group—he covered the team total fade earlier—and Rengifo grades poorly against three of those offerings (fastball, slider and change-up) with sub-.290 xwOBA figures on each. King has already fanned 33 percent of current Angels in 33 head-to-head plate appearances, and Rengifo’s K-rate has spiked to 24 percent in May. Add in Petco’s 12-mph left-to-right wind suppressing power and Rengifo’s likely slot in the bottom half of the order, and Boston doubts Rengifo sees the volume or hard contact needed to clear the prop.

For the total, the tout went under. San Diego owns only an 82 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching in May, while the Angels muster a modest 97 wRC+ against right-handers and are missing their best bat in Trout. Michael King’s form (2.22 ERA) plus the Padres’ elite bullpen gives Los Angeles little room for error, and Yusei Kikuchi’s solid season suggests he can keep San Diego from a big inning. The Angels’ offense is near the bottom of the league in every major category (26th OPS, last in K-rate, 29th batting average, last OBP). With two capable starters and one bullpen (Padres) that can slam the door, the tout projected a low-scoring contest that stays beneath the posted total.

Scott Reichel chased a long-shot dinger by selecting switch-hitter Luis Rengifo to go deep off Kyle Gibson. Gibson has been torched by left-handed bats this season, allowing a staggering .474 batting average and three homers in just 38 plate appearances. Rengifo—who will hit from the left side—owns the Angels’ highest pull percentage versus sinkers and is one of only two current Halos with a career homer against Gibson (1-for-4 with a blast and two RBIs). Despite a bleak .210 season average, Rengifo’s underlying barrel rate (8.9 %) and max-exit velocity (110 mph) indicate more pop than the raw stats show. Reichel expects a generous price north of +650 and views the matchup of Gibson’s ground-ball sinker that has generated only a 47 % ground-ball rate this year as the perfect buy-low spot on the struggling infielder.

Lonte Smith tabbed Taylor Ward as his favorite home-run prop for Saturday’s Orioles–Angels clash. Ward has rediscovered his stroke, leaving the yard in two of his last three games after an 0-for-8 slump earlier in May. He now faces Kyle Gibson, who has already surrendered a long ball in each of his two 2025 outings (six total) and sports a homer-happy sinker that has been tagged for a .220 ISO. Ward is 3-for-4 lifetime against Gibson and owns a .507 slugging percentage versus right-handed sinkers dating back to last season. With Angel Stadium expecting mid-80s temperatures and a light breeze to left, Smith called Ward “a prime candidate” to clear the fences at attractive odds of +425 or better.