Bamford advised taking Kurt Kitayama each-way at 45/1. Kitayama locked up 2026 Signature-event status by finishing 9th at the St. Jude, so he arrives pressure-free yet only 37th in the FedEx Cup, needing another strong week to reach East Lake. The analyst expects the bomber-friendly 7,600-yard Caves Valley to accentuate Kitayama’s length and recent form: he ranks top-10 both SG Tee-to-Green and SG Current Form over the past eight tournaments and captured the 3M Open four starts ago. With wide landing zones, firm new Pure Distinction bentgrass greens and two converted 525-yard par-4s, Bamford believes Kitayama’s high-ball flight and confident putter give him genuine win equity as an under-the-radar playoff sleeper.

Bamford recommended an each-way play on Xander Schauffele at 16/1 (8 places, 1/5). Sitting 43rd in FedEx Cup points, Schauffele must finish roughly T6 or better to keep his eight-year Tour Championship streak alive, giving him maximum motivation. The World No. 3 ranked T3 in weekend scoring at TPC Southwind after a cold first-round putter, signalling the flat stick is heating back up. Caves Valley suits his game: wide fairways let him unleash driver, and he owns BMW podiums at similar Mid-Atlantic venues—3rd at Aronimink (2019) and 3rd at Wilmington (2021). Schauffele is 12th in SG Tee-to-Green and 22nd OTT over the last eight events, metrics Bamford believes will be decisive on a newly-stretched 7,600-yard par-70 that still rewards aggressive ball-striking.

Steve Bamford said to back Scottie Scheffler outright at 5/2 despite the skinny number. He compared Scheffler’s current tear—12 victories in his last 33 worldwide starts, a 36 % win rate and roughly 50 % top-3 rate—to Jason Day’s 2015 playoff blitz. Bamford noted that Scheffler nearly stole last week’s FedEx St. Jude even while missing regular caddie Ted Scott, highlighting how reliable the World No. 1 is regardless of circumstances. Caves Valley’s 40-yard fairways and lack of penal rough reward Scheffler’s elite tee-to-green profile (No. 1 in SG OTT and SG Approach over the past eight-event window). With bookmakers likely to post him at 2/1 or shorter in next week’s 30-man Tour Championship, Bamford wants the insurance of locking in this price now and expects Scheffler to treat every playoff start as a must-win under the new equal-strokes format.

At 60/1 Bamford views Harman as a value each-way dart for Southwind. The 2022 Open Champion sits 20th in FedEx Cup points—safe for East Lake—but only 12th in U.S. Ryder Cup standings, so he needs a playoff statement. Harman’s precision game has worked here before: 6th in 2014 and 3rd in 2022 on this water-littered par-70. Recent signs are positive: 8th Travelers, 10th Open, where he ranked top-10 in GIR and 13th in SG Approach. Bamford noted Harman gains strokes Off-the-Tee through accuracy rather than power, the exact profile of past Southwind winners like Abraham Ancer. With Champion Bermuda greens and gnarly 2.5-inch Bermudagrass rough placing a premium on fairways and scrambling, Bamford believes Harman’s short-game tenacity could cash big prices if scoring hovers in the mid-teens.

Bamford grabbed Clark at 40/1 each-way, citing both motivation and numbers. At 49th in the FedEx Cup, the three-time PGA Tour winner must produce immediately to avoid elimination and bolster his Ryder Cup case. Recent finishes—17th Travelers, 11th Scottish, 4th Open, 12th 3M—place him 11th in SG Current Form. His irons popped to 2nd in SG Approach at the 3M, and across the eight-week window he ranks top-20 Tee-to-Green and top-15 Putting. Clark wins on serious venues (Quail Hollow, Pebble Beach, LACC) and was 7th here a year ago while ranking 7th Tee-to-Green. Bamford thinks Southwind’s two par-5s suit Clark’s distance advantage while tight targets keep shorter hitters in play, creating a balanced leaderboard where his all-around profile shines.

Bamford tipped Matsuyama at 30/1, arguing the defending champion is again primed for a playoff statement. Since winning the 2024 Genesis Invitational, last year’s St. Jude and the 2025 Sentry, Hideki has shown he saves his best for marquee events and Bermuda greens. His Southwind résumé is impeccable—20th (2020), 2nd (2021), 16th (2023) and 1st (2024). Over the past eight weeks he rates 4th in SG Approach, 5th Tee-to-Green, 3rd Ball Striking, 3rd SG Total and sits inside the top-20 with the putter, quelling his traditional weakness. Three of his last four PGA Tour victories have come on Bermuda, and Champion Bermuda here fits that script. With the FedEx Cup reset and Ryder Cup whispers circulating, Bamford expects Matsuyama’s elite iron game and reliable scrambling (won last year while ranking 1st in putting) to translate into another deep Sunday run.

Bamford backed Fitzpatrick at 25/1 each-way, noting the Englishman’s form surge and outstanding history at TPC Southwind. Fitzpatrick rolls in off finishes of 17th (Travelers), 8th (Rocket Mortgage), 4th (Scottish Open), 4th (Open Championship) and 8th (Wyndham), a five-event run that puts him top-10 in SG Current Form. He needs a playoff push—currently outside the top 30—to reach East Lake, and Southwind is his happy place: 4th in 2019, 6th in 2020, 5th in 2022 and 18th last year even while slumping. Bamford reminded readers that six of Fitzpatrick’s ten career wins came immediately after a top-20 finish, exactly the scenario here. The Sheffield native gains with the driver through accuracy, excels on Florida-style layouts with water trouble, and loves Champion Bermuda putting surfaces. With Ryder Cup selection also on the line, Bamford believes Fitzpatrick’s combination of elite recent iron play and proven track record makes him a dangerous contender.

Steve Bamford said Schauffele is an auto-bet at 14/1 each-way because the numbers and narrative finally line up. After missing most of the West Coast Swing with an intercostal strain and torn rib cartilage, Schauffele has caught fire—8th at the Masters, 12th at the U.S. Open and 7th at the Open. Over the past eight weeks he ranks top-20 in SG Off-the-Tee and top-10 in Approach, Tee-to-Green and overall Current Form in Bamford’s model. Sitting 42nd in the FedEx Cup, the Californian needs points immediately to keep his perfect Tour-Championship streak alive. TPC Southwind is tailor-made for him: tight Zoysia fairways reward his accurate driver, and he already owns a 6th (2020) and a 2nd (2024) here. With Southwind’s Champion Bermuda greens the smallest on Tour, Bamford expects Schauffele’s dialed-in irons to create a birdie barrage and sees genuine win equity at double-digit odds.

For a 0.5-point each-way flyer at 190/1, Bamford touted Ben Kohles on the strength of unrivaled recent ball-striking: 1st in SG Approach and SG Tee-to-Green, top-20 SG Off-the-Tee in the eight-week tracker. Form is quietly improving—8th at the ISCO, then 20th at the 3M Open with four sub-70 rounds. Fairway-finding and GIR numbers have been elite; Bamford notes a merely neutral putting week on Champion Bermudagrass (where Kohles ranked 7th SG Putting here in 2022) would place him firmly in the mix. With nothing to lose and FedEx points to gain, the North Carolinian’s statistical profile screams high-ceiling upside at a venue that rewards precision over power.

Bamford grabbed David Lipsky at 150/1 for 1 point each-way, arguing the veteran’s current run (3rd John Deere, 28th ISCO, 32nd Barracuda, 3rd 3M) lines up perfectly with Sedgefield’s demands. Over the past four weeks Lipsky rates top-30 SG Off-the-Tee, top-20 Approach, top-20 Putting and top-12 Tee-to-Green, while ranking top-10 in current form. His accuracy-first profile (short but straight, excellent wedges) matches the Ross layout where he was 27th on debut in 2022. Weekend 64-64 (-14) at TPC Twin Cities underscored streaky scoring potential. Sitting 88th in the FedEx standings, he needs a big week; Bamford believes the combination of recent tee-to-green precision and a warm Bermudagrass putter makes the triple-digit price standout.

At 100/1 Bamford played 1 point each-way on Austin Eckroat, citing a recent flurry of low rounds and elite approach numbers (2nd in the eight-week SG Approach tracker, top-25 SG Tee-to-Green). The Oklahoma native co-led the Travelers with a first-round 62, posted 25th there, fired an opening 63 and held 6th through 54 holes at the John Deere (11th finish), and shot four sub-70s on route to 39th at last week’s 3M Open. He sits top-30 on Tour in driving accuracy, a key at tight Sedgefield, and historically putts better on Bermudagrass than Bent/Poa. Eckroat finished 6th here last year—carding twin 64s in R1 & R3—despite arriving in far worse form. Needing points to stay inside the FedEx top-70, Bamford views him as a live long-shot with win equity if the putter behaves.

Bamford staked 2 points each-way on 2023 winner Lucas Glover at 40/1, highlighting a familiar mid-summer hot streak: 9th at the Travelers (best ever there), 5th at the John Deere and 23rd at Royal Portrush. Crucially, the putter—long Glover’s weakness—was positive SG in both Illinois and Portrush, mirroring the form that led to 15th in SG Putting when he won here two seasons ago. A six-time PGA-Tour champion, Glover has captured four of those titles between mid-June and mid-August, a ‘biorhythm’ Bamford loves. In the five-year predictor model he ranks 6th on Par-70s, 3rd on Bermudagrass, 10th in mid-score scoring and 3rd on short courses. Motivation is also sky-high: at 17th in the Ryder Cup standings he likely needs a win to force Keegan Bradley’s hand. Course familiarity, trending flat stick and proven closing ability make him a live repeat candidate.

Steve Bamford advised a 3-point each-way bet on Matt Fitzpatrick at 20/1 with 8 places, arguing the Englishman is peaking at exactly the right time for Sedgefield. Fitzpatrick has finished 17th at the Travelers, 8th at the Rocket Mortgage, 4th at the Scottish Open and 4th at the Open Championship, putting him T-1 for current form in Bamford’s eight-week strokes-gained tracker and top-25 in every SG category. Carolina resume is stellar—Harbour Town 14-14-4-1, Congaree 10-13, Quail Hollow (2024 PGA) 8th—and he owns correlating success at Copperhead (5th). Six of his ten career victories have followed a top-20 the previous start, and Bamford notes the Wyndham’s slightly weaker field (compared with next week’s FedEx St. Jude) gives Fitzpatrick a prime chance to secure a third PGA-Tour win and strengthen his case for a Luke Donald Ryder Cup pick. The short, accuracy-demanding Ross layout and Champion Bermudagrass greens are considered a perfect fit.

Steve Bamford locked in Kurt Kitayama at 35/1, pointing to the Californian’s love of water-framed courses—3rd PGA National (2022), victory at Bay Hill (2023) and 2nd at Congaree’s CJ Cup—all tracks with 10-plus holes in play with water. TPC Twin Cities has 15. Kitayama is 110th in FedEx Cup standings and must bank a big finish. Form is flashing: 5th John Deere (4th SG Tee-to-Green), 14th Barracuda, and he rates 4th in Bamford’s 8-week SG Tee-to-Green tracker. He finished 6th here last season, ranking 2nd Tee-to-Green but losing 1.9 strokes putting. Bamford notes that winners here have averaged just +0.3 SG Putting, so a neutral putter could be enough for Kitayama to contend or win outright.

Bamford bet Michael Thorbjornsen at 33/1, highlighting that the 23-year-old ranks top-5 in both SG Off-the-Tee and SG Tee-to-Green across the eight-week rolling window and sits No. 1 in his proprietary current-form index. The Stanford product is comfortable on northern bentgrass layouts: 4th Travelers (2022), 4th Rocket Mortgage (2025), 2nd John Deere (2024). He opened with 66 here last year before fading, experience Bamford feels will help him manage altitude-adjusted yardages this time. Wide fairways allow him to unleash a driver that averages 309 yards (field 7th). He also owns seven amateur wins, most on bentgrass in Illinois, New Jersey and Massachusetts, underscoring agronomy comfort. With a drivable par-4 and three reachable par-5s, Bamford forecasts a first PGA Tour trophy if Thorbjornsen’s putter is merely neutral.

Bamford grabbed Davis Thompson at 30/1, noting the Georgian sits 72nd in FedEx Cup points and views this weaker field as a must-cash opportunity. Thompson’s 2024 résumé is stout: maiden win at the John Deere Classic on pure bentgrass, 9th at the U.S. Open, and a 15th-best season scoring average. Course-correlation trends also shine—four of the past five 3M champions had contended at PGA West, and Thompson finished runner-up there at the 2023 American Express (-26/262). Additional bentgrass proof includes 5th at the Shriners Children’s Open (TPC Summerlin) and a Sunday lead before fading to 18th while defending at Deere three weeks ago. With three par-5s reachable in two and generous fairways, Bamford believes Thompson’s top-25 rank in SG Approach over the last eight events can translate to another −20 type ceiling.

Steve Bamford said Sam Burns is his headline play at 14/1, arguing that TPC Twin Cities checks every box for the world No. 22. Burns’ four career stroke-play wins have all come on mid-length tracks where winning scores sat between −17 and −22, the exact scoring band Bamford expects with this week’s soft bentgrass greens and sub-10 mph winds. Burns has already proven he can attack here—he finished 7th on debut in 2019 after sitting 2nd through 36 holes. Bentgrass form is a further green light: victory at Colonial (2022), 6th there in 2023, plus 2nd and 5th at TPC Craig Ranch. Recent signals are loud: lost a playoff to Ryan Fox at the RBC Canadian Open, then led the U.S. Open after 54 holes before finishing a career-best 7th. Sitting outside the automatic Ryder Cup spots, Bamford expects extra motivation. Course length (7,431 yds at altitude) rewards his power, and he ranks 6th on tour in SG Putting over the last eight weeks. Bamford views Burns as the most likely winner if he produces a merely field-average short-game week.

Bamford wagered 1 point each-way at 60/1 on rookie Jackson Suber, pointing to relentless iron play that keeps him near the top of his eight-week SG Approach tracker. Suber opened the season with 6th at the Sony Open and has since logged 18th at the RBC Canadian Open and 6th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, stringing together 10 straight rounds in the 60s before a narrow missed cut at the John Deere. Low-scoring pedigree is further backed by three Korn Ferry podiums, all on Bentgrass greens. With Hurstbourne expected to yield mid-20s under par and reward sharp wedge play, Bamford sees Suber’s combination of birdie rate and comfort on Bentgrass as a sneaky path to a first-time winner payday.

Bamford allocated 1.25 points each-way at 45/1 to Carson Young, noting the Clemson product’s surge over the weekend at TPC Deere Run (-9 on Sat/Sun, T5) propelled him to 132nd in FedEx Cup yet still hungry for top-100 security. Young ranked inside the top-20 in both Tee-to-Green and Putting last week and historically spikes at alternate events—3rd and 10th in his last two Puerto Rico Opens. The handicapper expects Hurstbourne’s short par-70 to reward Young’s sharp approach play and recent confidence with the flatstick, forecasting another low-scoring shootout similar to his Korn Ferry victories on Bentgrass-heavy tracks.

Bamford played 1.25 points each-way at 40/1 on S.H. Kim, arguing the Korn Ferry standout’s recent dominance translates to Louisville. Kim ranks 4th on the KFT money list after two runner-ups, two additional top-7s and a win at the AdventHealth Championship—contested on the same Meyer Zoysia fairways and A1/A4 Bentgrass greens Hurstbourne features. The 25-year-old has already flashed PGA Tour ceiling with 4th at the 2022 Shriners, 2nd at the 2023 Fortinet and 4th at the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson. On pure results he trails only Michael Thorbjornsen in this field across the last two months. Bamford believes Kim will view the full two-year exemption on offer as a golden ticket back to the big tour and notes his precise iron play (top-10 SG Approach on the KFT) should thrive on a strategic 7,056-yard layout.

Bamford invested 1.5 points each-way at 28/1 on Beau Hossler, citing a perfect storm of course fit and urgency. Hossler sits 106th in the FedEx Cup and historically treats opposite-field weeks seriously (6th 2023 Barracuda, 4th 2024 Myrtle Beach). The Californian thrives on classical venues with generous driving lanes and fast Bentgrass, evidenced by a career-best 19th at May’s PGA Championship at Quail Hollow and near-misses at Pebble Beach, Valero, Zozo and Sanderson Farms. He arrives off 11th at the John Deere Classic where a Sunday 63 tied the low round and he gained strokes in all five SG categories. Bamford thinks the tree-lined but not penal fairways at Hurstbourne accentuate Hossler’s balanced tee-to-green profile and top-10 Bentgrass putting numbers, setting up a long-awaited maiden win.

Steve Bamford staked 1.5 points each-way at 25/1 on Cameron Champ to win the ISCO Championship, arguing the alternate-field setup is tailor-made for his resurgence. Champ carries five top-27 finishes in his last eight PGA Tour starts, highlighted by 9th at the RBC Canadian Open (he led through 36 holes), 19th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 27th last week at the John Deere Classic. Over the past eight weeks he ranks No. 1 in this field for Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, Tee-to-Green and overall current form, while sitting inside the top-15 in Putting. Bamford noted Hurstbourne’s 7,056-yard par-70 with A1/A4 Bentgrass greens mirrors setups where Champ has previously lifted trophies (2019 Silverado, 2021 TPC Twin Cities). With three career PGA Tour victories and FedEx Cup motivation (134th entering the week), Bamford expects the bomber to overpower the short layout and cash an outright ticket.

Bamford’s 50/1 flyer is two-time Tour winner Nicolas Echavarria, whose trophies both came at −20 or better (latest at Narashino’s Bentgrass greens in the 2024 ZOZO). The Colombian is 5th in season-long SG Putting and showed his tee-to-green gear last week in Detroit (9th SG Approach, 13th T2G en route to 6th place). He’s flashed contention all year—54-hole factors at Torrey, Copperhead, Memorial Park, Augusta and TPC Craig Ranch—and owns runner-up finishes at the Sony and RSM, both low-scoring layouts. Bamford believes Deere Run’s pure Bentgrass and necessity for aggressive scoring perfectly align with Echavarria’s profile, giving him genuine win equity at an enticing number.

Bamford pounced on Lucas Glover at 40/1, reminding readers that the 2021 Deere champ has gained strokes putting here four straight years—no small feat for a player whose flat stick usually lags. Glover arrives off a T-9 in the Travelers Signature event where he ranked 2nd OTT, 3rd APP, 4th T2G and even positive putting over the weekend. He owns six PGA Tour wins, four between mid-June and mid-August, and sits 19th in the U.S. Ryder Cup standings—extra motivation to pounce on a short, receptive par-71 where his elite iron play can stuff flags. Bamford’s model loves him: T7 Bentgrass results, 4th resort-scoring, 2nd on similar short courses. Expect the veteran to contend again.

At 30/1 Bamford views Kevin Yu as the next player to bag a second Tour title at Deere Run, mirroring Poston (2022) and Straka (2023). Yu’s recent slate—4th Myrtle Beach, 3rd RBC Canadian, 25th Travelers—shows form, and his putter is finally cooperating: top-15 SG Putting over the last eight weeks after ranking 191st for the full 2023 season. The Taiwanese bomber loves this layout (6th in 2023, 20th in 2024) and ranks 14th and 32nd in season-long SG Tee-to-Green the past two years, exactly the ball-striking profile of past Deere champs like Glover and DeChambeau. With the flat stick no longer a liability, Bamford believes Yu’s birdie-making ceiling is tournament-winning.

Bamford grabbed Jake Knapp at 28/1, calling him “undoubtedly a star when he’s on it.” Knapp fired 61-66-68 over the final 54 holes in Detroit (-21, five shots better than anyone else in that span) and missed the playoff by one, finally answering previous Sunday fade-outs at PGA National and TPC Toronto. His effortless power is perfect for Deere Run’s wide fairways and two reachable par-5s, and he owns event reps after a learning-curve T-52 here last summer. Bamford emphasized Knapp’s ability to rattle off birdie streaks—critical when the winning target sits near -25—and sees confidence peaking in a weaker field where his ceiling skill set can dominate.

Bamford is sticking with Chris Kirk at 28/1 despite last week’s playoff loss in Detroit. Kirk gained over 3.5 strokes with the putter while ranking top-10 in SG Approach, Around-the-Green and Tee-to-Green—an all-around recipe that travels to Deere Run, a venue where hot wedges and a sub-1.7 putts-per-GIR mark are essential. FedEx Cup urgency also matters: now 67th, Kirk sees this weak-field 500-pointer as his best chance to lock up a Playoff berth before August. Course history is quietly solid—five top-30s in seven visits, including sitting 6th through 54 holes in both 2013 and 2023 on these pure Bentgrass greens. Bamford expects Kirk’s elite iron play and renewed putting confidence to translate into a victory chase.

Steve Bamford said Michael Thorbjornsen is “ready to pop” and backed him each-way at 28/1. Bamford noted the 23-year-old’s course comfort: T-17 here as an amateur in 2023 and solo 2nd last year after pouring in 27 birdies. Thorbjornsen thrives on Bentgrass agronomy (Mid-West upbringing, Stanford Bentgrass win, and two Illinois amateur titles) and can fully attack TPC Deere Run’s two driveable par-4s with his length. Recent form is sizzling—2nd at Corales, 4th at the Zurich team event, T-41 at the PGA Championship after sitting 7th through 36 holes, and 4th last week at the Rocket Mortgage where he ranked top-10 Tee-to-Green. Across the last eight weeks he ranks top-15 in the field for SG Tee-to-Green and top-10 for current form in Bamford’s model. With the winning score projected in the −20s and Thorbjornsen already proving he can reach that birdie pace, Bamford expects a maiden PGA Tour title.

Steve Bamford pegged Chris Kirk at 70/1 as the archetypal course horse. Kirk has finished 21st-12th-17th-14th-44th in five straight Detroit starts, ranking 9th in this field for total strokes gained at the Rocket and 9th Tee-to-Green. He has been inside the top 11 entering Sunday four different years, showing real win equity on the layout. Fresh off a confidence-boosting 12th at Oakmont’s U.S. Open—where he ranked top-25 SG Tee-to-Green—Kirk skipped last week’s Travelers (poor historical fit) to target a two-event run of Detroit and Deere for playoff points (currently 101st in FedEx standings). Bamford cited top-10 SG Approach numbers over the last eight weeks and familiarity with these poa-bent greens; if the putter perks up, his steady all-around profile could finally convert long-standing course comfort into a trophy.

Steve Bamford advised taking Matt Fitzpatrick at 40/1, framing the Rocket Mortgage as a perfect get-right week. Although the 2022 U.S. Open champ sits only 74th in FedEx Cup points, Bamford pointed to clear momentum: 8th at Quail Hollow’s PGA Championship and 17th at the Travelers, highlighted by a Saturday 63. Fitzpatrick led that event in traditional Ball-Striking (1st), ranked 2nd in Total Driving, and gained across every tee-to-green metric while losing just 0.5 strokes per round with the putter. Bamford expects those tee-to-green gains to travel to Detroit’s medium-length, tree-lined Ross course—similar to venues where Fitzpatrick has already won (Brookline, Harbour Town, Valderrama). With wider fairways and receptive greens, Fitzpatrick’s balanced game and improving putter offer a timely opportunity to bank critical playoff points.

Steve Bamford recommended Harry Hall at 30/1, calling the Cornishman a perfect fit for a low-scoring Ross layout. Working with Butch Harmon, Hall has recorded four top-10s in 2025—8th at The Sentry, 10th at Waialae, 6th at Colonial and 9th last week in the Travelers Signature event. He already owns a PGA Tour win (2024 ISCO Championship) on a 7,300-yard birdie fest and sits T4 on Tour in 2025 Birdie Average. Wide Detroit fairways eliminate his biggest weakness off the tee, and Bamford noted Hall’s past Midwest success: Korn Ferry wins in Kansas and Illinois on similar bent/poa greens. After finishing 31st here last year and then winning two weeks later, Bamford believes Hall’s surging putter plus elite scoring ability make him live to contend again.

Steve Bamford backed Cameron Young at 25/1, arguing the tournament sets up perfectly for his long-overdue first win. Young owns a stellar course résumé—2nd here in 2022 and 6th in 2024—with a 67.50 scoring average that ties for best among multi-year entrants. Recent results show the switch has flipped: 7th at the Truist Championship, 4th at the RBC Canadian Open and 4th at the U.S. Open in his last six starts, powered by a resurgent putter. Bamford highlighted Young’s top-8 ranks in historical SG Ball-Striking, Off-the-Tee, Around-the-Green and Tee-to-Green at Detroit plus a bomber profile that traditionally thrives on Ross’s soft, birdie-friendly par-72. With Morikawa and Cantlay out of form and Bradley on an emotional come-down, Bamford thinks the door is wide open for Young—now 17th in Ryder Cup points—to finally lift a trophy.

Steve Bamford said Ben Griffin is the most improved player on Tour this season and labelled him a must-back at 20/1 EW. Griffin already owns two PGA Tour wins in 2025 and is on a scorching run—8th at the PGA Championship, 1st at the Charles Schwab, 2nd at the Memorial and 10th at the U.S. Open in his last six starts. That surge has pushed him into the world top-20 and 8th in the Ryder Cup USA standings, giving him a clear motivational carrot. Bamford noted that Griffin’s length, accuracy and iron play have all ticked up year-over-year, turning last season’s 33rd/31st finishes at Detroit into a much higher ceiling. Add a hot putter, confidence from recent wins and familiarity with the poa-bent mix greens, and Bamford believes Griffin is the most likely winner in a field missing elite form from the shorter-priced favorites.

Steve Bamford advises an each-way flutter on Thomas Detry at 90/1, arguing the Belgian is quietly assembling the résumé needed to grab a Ryder Cup berth and a maiden Tour title. Detry followed T18 at the RBC Canadian Open with T23 at Oakmont where he ranked 5th SG: Tee-to-Green, 2nd in Ball-Striking, and top-7 in Greens-in-Reg. Those numbers echo Sepp Straka’s pre-win profile here in 2023. Detry’s limited West-Coast record—5th Kapalua, 20th & 15th Torrey, 4th Pebble, 1st TPC Scottsdale—mirrors the Poa/Bent specialists who succeed at River Highlands. Agronomy this week (Bent/Poa fairways and greens, KY bluegrass rough) suits a player raised on European cool-season grasses. Bamford notes that Detry’s third look at the course (55th last year) comes with his confidence and iron control peaking, and that his odds offer big upside in an 8-place each-way market.

Bamford grabbed Nick Taylor at 90/1 each-way (8 places) noting the Canadian’s knack for popping at triple-digit prices on sub-7,000-yard courses. Four of Taylor’s five PGA Tour titles have come on short setups with mixed Bent/Poa or pure Poa greens: Pebble Beach (2020), Oakdale (2023), TPC Scottsdale (2024) and Waialae (2025). He arrives off his best major (T23 U.S. Open) and a T13 in Canada, plus a career-best Signature finish (4th Memorial). Weekend rounds of 65-67 (-8) here last year ranked T20 for the final 36 holes, suggesting he is decoding River Highlands. Taylor sits 5th SG: Putting and top-25 SG: Total over his last eight events, a combo Bamford sees as vital with winners averaging 38% of strokes gained on the greens. The 2023 Canadian Open winner has already cashed at 100/1 and 125/1 this season; Bamford views Hartford as the next plausible shock victory spot.

Bamford recommended Viktor Hovland each-way at 28/1 (8 places, 1/5) after the Norwegian finished T6 at Oakmont while ranking 2nd in SG: Tee-to-Green and gaining strokes in every long-game category. Hovland has placed 2nd, 3rd, 3rd and 4th in his last 12 majors and finally logged his first U.S. Open top-10, mirroring the paths of Chez Reavie (2019) and Harris English (2021) who parlayed U.S. Open podiums into Travelers wins seven days later. He sits 6th on Tour in SG: Approach for 2025 and has two solid course looks (11th in 2020, 20th in 2024). Bamford highlighted Hovland’s comfort on Bent/Poa mixes and “Up-State” venues: wins at Muirfield Village and Olympia Fields plus a runner-up at Oak Hill. With confidence high and the putter the only missing link last week (-0.4 SG:P per round), Bamford believes a hot flatstick will put Hovland right in the mix on a layout demanding elite iron play and 22-plus birdies.

Steve Bamford backed Scottie Scheffler at 3/1 to win outright, citing a perfect storm of form, course fit, and historical trends. Scheffler has won 11 of his last 29 worldwide starts (38% strike-rate) and is already three-for-five since the Masters with victories at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, PGA Championship, and Memorial. He won this event in 2024 and finished fourth in 2023, ranking 2nd in cumulative SG: Tee-to-Green and 4th in Ball-Striking at TPC River Highlands. Bamford stressed Scheffler’s habit of winning in bunches (Phoenix-Arnold Palmer-Match Play-Masters in ’22; Bay Hill-Players-Heritage-Memorial-Travelers-Olympics in ’24) and noted that a successful title defense would be his fourth after Phoenix, Players, and Memorial. Ted Scott’s course knowledge, Scheffler’s elite approach play (SG: Approach No. 1 on Tour) and his ability to club down with 3-wood on tight par-4s provide the tactical edge needed on the 6,835-yard par-70. Bamford expects another birdie fest around –22 and trusts Scheffler’s balanced profile (4th OTT, 6th APP, 16th Putting here last year) to separate on the par-4s that decide this championship.

Bamford’s long-shot flyer is Harris English at 66/1 with 10-place each-way terms. English owns a 71.81 career U.S. Open scoring average—better than Spieth, Thomas, Lowry and Hatton—and has finished 4th (Winged Foot 2020), 3rd (Torrey 2021) and 8th (LACC 2023). He was also T37 at Oakmont in 2016. The four-time Tour winner arrives after a back-door T2 at the PGA Championship, satisfying Bamford’s top-8 PGA trend. His January victory at Torrey Pines showed comfort on Poa greens, and correlating form includes 1st Kapalua, 7th Riviera, 1st TPC River Highlands and 2nd TPC Boston—courses that have produced Oakmont champions Cabrera, Johnson and Furyk. Statistically English sits top-45 Driving Accuracy, top-40 Bogey Avoidance, top-30 Scrambling >30 yards, and top-20 Three-Putt Avoidance this season; he also ranked 6th Total Driving and 5th Ball-Striking at the Memorial. Bamford concluded that English’s consistent major record plus tidy short game make him “the type who sneaks onto a U.S. Open leaderboard when everyone else is bleeding shots."

At 35/1 each-way, Bamford tapped Sepp Straka as the mid-price candidate who can follow the Woodland/Clark path. Straka closed the Memorial with a field-best 8-under weekend, ranking 1st SG: Off-the-Tee, 15th Approach, 7th Tee-to-Green and 3rd Putting while also leading in traditional Total Driving and Ball-Striking. The Austrian-Bulldog owns a 2025 win at the Philadelphia Cricket Club (Poa greens) plus top-7 finishes this year at Pebble, Bay Hill and Sawgrass—tracks that demand precision into firm complexes. A Georgia alum comfortable on Poa mixes, he was 7th at the 2023 PGA (Oak Hill) and runner-up at the 2023 Open, proving major pedigree. Bamford underscored that six recent U.S. Open champions fell in the 40-80/1 range, and Straka’s low-bogey percentage, top-30 scrambling and elite three-putt avoidance mean "he will not beat himself when Oakmont bares its teeth."

Bamford staked Niemann at 30/1 (8 places), pointing to the Chilean’s sixth worldwide win last week at LIV Virginia—an 8-under 63 Sunday while staring down Rahm and DeChambeau. That was his fifth win in 12 starts and first on U.S. soil, moving him to #4 in Bamford’s predictor. Niemann finished 8th at the PGA Championship and fits the recent trend where five of the past six U.S. Open winners logged a top-8 in the prior PGA. Course-fit parallels include victories at Riviera (Genesis 2022) and TPC Old White (Greenbrier 2019), both classical tests with Bent/Poa greens and narrow sightlines similar to Oakmont’s 18-28-yard fairways. The 26-year-old ranks top-5 SG: Approach and top-10 SG: Putting on Poa over the last eight-event window, giving him the balanced profile Bamford looks for when grinders meet slick greens.

Bamford recommended Jon Rahm each-way at 12/1 with 8 places, calling him the second player capable of genuinely trading punches with Scheffler. Rahm was low amateur at Oakmont in 2016 (T23) and arrives off 8th at LIV Virginia where he ranked 3rd in GIR, 4th Total Driving and 2nd Ball-Striking on Poa-infused greens. He has finished 7th (Open), 14th (Masters) and 8th (PGA) in his last three majors and pushed Scheffler within a shot on the back nine at Quail Hollow. Bamford highlighted Rahm’s five PGA Tour wins on Bent/Poa surfaces, his #3 Datagolf ranking, and his driving distance (2nd in field last week) as perfect fits for Oakmont’s 7,372-yard par-70 with two 600-yard par 5s and the 289-yard par-3 8th. Wet spring rough further rewards Rahm’s power/fade combo, and his elite short-game (Top-10 SG: Putting last eight events) mitigates Oakmont’s 13-14 Stimpmeter greens.

Steve Bamford backed Bryson DeChambeau outright at 15/2, arguing Oakmont’s weather-soaked fairways will accentuate the Californian’s length and SG: Off-the-Tee edge (ranked #1 in the field). Bamford noted that 9 of Bryson’s 12 professional wins have come in the Midwest/Northeast on Bentgrass-Poa blends, including both of his U.S. Open titles (2020 Winged Foot, 2024 Pinehurst No.2). The defending champion also owns a 42-under aggregate across his last five U.S.-based majors (two runners-up, one win). With 5-inch non-graduated rough, 170 penal bunkers and releasing greens, Bamford expects Oakmont to become a driver-wedge contest for the handful who can carry it 320+. He framed Bryson as the "obvious rival" to short-priced favorite Scottie Scheffler and believes soft conditions Thursday–Friday give DeChambeau a head start before firmer weekend greens showcase his improved putting (12th in SG: Putting last eight starts).

Steve Bamford said he has already grabbed Sepp Straka at 60-to-1 on the Betfair Exchange (still 50-to-1 in books) and thinks Oakmont is tailor-made for the Austrian. Bamford pointed to Straka’s outrageous Memorial tune-up: first in driving accuracy while hitting 80% of fairways, ninth in total driving, eighth in ball-striking, top-10 in GIR, and—most impressively—first in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee despite ranking only middle-of-the-pack in distance. The number was powered entirely by how arrow-straight Straka was, something Bamford believes will be even more rewarded once Oakmont’s four-inch rough starts swallowing marginal misses. Straka also finished third in putting at Memorial and owns two PGA Tour titles on similar Northeast agronomy, plus a runner-up at The Open and a top-10 in the PGA Championship—checks every comp-course or major trend Bamford is tracking. He called Straka a must-add to outright cards and an under-rostered DFS pivot in the 8K salary range.

Steve Bamford recommended steering clear of Rory McIlroy this week, arguing that the four-time major winner “isn’t super sharp in the headspace right now.” Although McIlroy owns six consecutive top-15s in U.S. Opens, Bamford believes recent near-misses and off-course distractions have sapped his closing edge. Oakmont’s lightning greens demand full commitment on five-footers—an area where wavering confidence can unravel a round. Books are still dealing 14-to-1, a price Bamford sees as no bargain when Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm sit in the same range. For DFS, he advises coming in under the projected 20 % roster rate and reallocating salary to steadier, lower-owned options.

Steve Bamford identified Jon Rahm as the best value among the sub-15-to-1 contenders. Rahm’s T6 at Quail Hollow and expected strong ball-striking in the upcoming LIV Virginia event signal that his post-Masters lull is over. Bamford likes the course fit: Rahm marries elite driving with a proven ability to flight long-iron run-ups and ranks near the top in lag-putting on fast Poa. He also referenced overlapping leaderboards—Augusta, Riviera, Kapalua, Quail Hollow, Travelers, and Olympia Fields—where Rahm plus past Oakmont stars (Dustin Johnson, Angel Cabrera, Jim Furyk) have all thrived. Given those comps and Gil Hanse restoration history, Bamford puts Rahm’s win probability near 10 %, making 14-to-1 a green-light number and positioning him as a core DFS anchor at sub-$10K salaries.

Steve Bamford advised fading Scottie Scheffler in outrights and DFS despite the Texan’s historic heater. Bamford noted Scheffler’s driver has sprung a leak—he ranked just 36th in fairways hit (while 16th in distance) at Memorial and is fighting “the lefts.” Oakmont has pinched its fairways to 18–28 yards, so even Scheffler’s typical three-yard misses will bury in four-inch rough where he “literally cannot get this to the green.” Bamford thinks those bad breaks will test Scheffler’s temperament, predicting visible frustration when two-yard misses turn into doubles. He added that winning back-to-back majors is statistically rare, lowering Scheffler’s true win probability to roughly 15 % versus the 25-30 % implied at +300. Bamford is passing on Scheffler in betting cards and views him as an overpriced DFS spend.

Steve Bamford said betting Scottie Scheffler at 3-to-1 (+300) is still acceptable value for the U.S. Open. Bamford noted that UK shops have already cut Scheffler from the 5.5-to-1 price available at the PGA Championship and expects further steam that could push him below 3-to-1 by Thursday. He pointed to Scheffler’s Tour-leading strokes-gained tee-to-green profile, seven consecutive top-10 finishes, and #1 ranking in proximity from 125-175 yards—distances Oakmont will ask for repeatedly. Bamford added that Scheffler’s improved Poa-annua putting removes the lone historical concern and makes him a deserving prohibitive favorite worth locking in before the number shortens.

Bamford put a 1-point each-way ticket on Matti Schmid at 75/1, highlighting the German’s career-best form and ideal statistical profile for TPC Toronto. Schmid ranks 15th in Driving Distance this season but is even better with mid- to long-irons: top-30 in proximity from 150-175 yards and top-10 from 175-200 and 200+ yards. That dovetails with the North Course’s six par-4s over 480 yards and two long par-3s. He’s logged four PGA Tour top-10s in 2025 and pocketed $1 million for solo 2nd at Colonial two weeks ago, where he stared down Scottie Scheffler on Sunday. Although he’s 0-for-2 at the Canadian Open, those misses came on shorter, tree-tight tracks; the new, longer, 7,389-yard layout with wide fairways removes his biggest past obstacle (accuracy). Even in last week’s MC at the Memorial he gained both off-the-tee and on approach, convincing Bamford the trend remains positive.

Bamford advised a 1-point each-way flutter on Michael Thorbjornsen at 70/1 (8 places) because the rookie’s strengths line up perfectly with TPC Toronto’s generous corridors and long par-4s. Thorbjornsen averages 316 yards off the tee—fifth longest on Tour—and sits 1st in SG: Off-the-Tee over the past eight weeks. He’s also top-25 in SG: Tee-to-Green and top-15 in recent-form rankings. The Bent/Poa agronomy mirrors what he grew up on in Ohio and Massachusetts and what he thrived on while finishing 4th at the 2022 Travelers and 2nd at the 2024 John Deere. Bamford downplayed the Charles Schwab WD as simple rest after a five-week run that included a grueling PGA Championship (T41 after being 7th through 36 holes). With space to swing freely, a driveable par-4 and two reachable par-5s, Bamford believes the 23-year-old can convert his prodigious length into a first PGA Tour win or at least a place return.