Bamford wagered 1 point each-way at 60/1 on rookie Jackson Suber, pointing to relentless iron play that keeps him near the top of his eight-week SG Approach tracker. Suber opened the season with 6th at the Sony Open and has since logged 18th at the RBC Canadian Open and 6th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, stringing together 10 straight rounds in the 60s before a narrow missed cut at the John Deere. Low-scoring pedigree is further backed by three Korn Ferry podiums, all on Bentgrass greens. With Hurstbourne expected to yield mid-20s under par and reward sharp wedge play, Bamford sees Suber’s combination of birdie rate and comfort on Bentgrass as a sneaky path to a first-time winner payday.

Bamford allocated 1.25 points each-way at 45/1 to Carson Young, noting the Clemson product’s surge over the weekend at TPC Deere Run (-9 on Sat/Sun, T5) propelled him to 132nd in FedEx Cup yet still hungry for top-100 security. Young ranked inside the top-20 in both Tee-to-Green and Putting last week and historically spikes at alternate events—3rd and 10th in his last two Puerto Rico Opens. The handicapper expects Hurstbourne’s short par-70 to reward Young’s sharp approach play and recent confidence with the flatstick, forecasting another low-scoring shootout similar to his Korn Ferry victories on Bentgrass-heavy tracks.

Bamford played 1.25 points each-way at 40/1 on S.H. Kim, arguing the Korn Ferry standout’s recent dominance translates to Louisville. Kim ranks 4th on the KFT money list after two runner-ups, two additional top-7s and a win at the AdventHealth Championship—contested on the same Meyer Zoysia fairways and A1/A4 Bentgrass greens Hurstbourne features. The 25-year-old has already flashed PGA Tour ceiling with 4th at the 2022 Shriners, 2nd at the 2023 Fortinet and 4th at the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson. On pure results he trails only Michael Thorbjornsen in this field across the last two months. Bamford believes Kim will view the full two-year exemption on offer as a golden ticket back to the big tour and notes his precise iron play (top-10 SG Approach on the KFT) should thrive on a strategic 7,056-yard layout.

Bamford invested 1.5 points each-way at 28/1 on Beau Hossler, citing a perfect storm of course fit and urgency. Hossler sits 106th in the FedEx Cup and historically treats opposite-field weeks seriously (6th 2023 Barracuda, 4th 2024 Myrtle Beach). The Californian thrives on classical venues with generous driving lanes and fast Bentgrass, evidenced by a career-best 19th at May’s PGA Championship at Quail Hollow and near-misses at Pebble Beach, Valero, Zozo and Sanderson Farms. He arrives off 11th at the John Deere Classic where a Sunday 63 tied the low round and he gained strokes in all five SG categories. Bamford thinks the tree-lined but not penal fairways at Hurstbourne accentuate Hossler’s balanced tee-to-green profile and top-10 Bentgrass putting numbers, setting up a long-awaited maiden win.

Steve Bamford staked 1.5 points each-way at 25/1 on Cameron Champ to win the ISCO Championship, arguing the alternate-field setup is tailor-made for his resurgence. Champ carries five top-27 finishes in his last eight PGA Tour starts, highlighted by 9th at the RBC Canadian Open (he led through 36 holes), 19th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 27th last week at the John Deere Classic. Over the past eight weeks he ranks No. 1 in this field for Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, Tee-to-Green and overall current form, while sitting inside the top-15 in Putting. Bamford noted Hurstbourne’s 7,056-yard par-70 with A1/A4 Bentgrass greens mirrors setups where Champ has previously lifted trophies (2019 Silverado, 2021 TPC Twin Cities). With three career PGA Tour victories and FedEx Cup motivation (134th entering the week), Bamford expects the bomber to overpower the short layout and cash an outright ticket.

Bamford’s 50/1 flyer is two-time Tour winner Nicolas Echavarria, whose trophies both came at −20 or better (latest at Narashino’s Bentgrass greens in the 2024 ZOZO). The Colombian is 5th in season-long SG Putting and showed his tee-to-green gear last week in Detroit (9th SG Approach, 13th T2G en route to 6th place). He’s flashed contention all year—54-hole factors at Torrey, Copperhead, Memorial Park, Augusta and TPC Craig Ranch—and owns runner-up finishes at the Sony and RSM, both low-scoring layouts. Bamford believes Deere Run’s pure Bentgrass and necessity for aggressive scoring perfectly align with Echavarria’s profile, giving him genuine win equity at an enticing number.

Bamford pounced on Lucas Glover at 40/1, reminding readers that the 2021 Deere champ has gained strokes putting here four straight years—no small feat for a player whose flat stick usually lags. Glover arrives off a T-9 in the Travelers Signature event where he ranked 2nd OTT, 3rd APP, 4th T2G and even positive putting over the weekend. He owns six PGA Tour wins, four between mid-June and mid-August, and sits 19th in the U.S. Ryder Cup standings—extra motivation to pounce on a short, receptive par-71 where his elite iron play can stuff flags. Bamford’s model loves him: T7 Bentgrass results, 4th resort-scoring, 2nd on similar short courses. Expect the veteran to contend again.

At 30/1 Bamford views Kevin Yu as the next player to bag a second Tour title at Deere Run, mirroring Poston (2022) and Straka (2023). Yu’s recent slate—4th Myrtle Beach, 3rd RBC Canadian, 25th Travelers—shows form, and his putter is finally cooperating: top-15 SG Putting over the last eight weeks after ranking 191st for the full 2023 season. The Taiwanese bomber loves this layout (6th in 2023, 20th in 2024) and ranks 14th and 32nd in season-long SG Tee-to-Green the past two years, exactly the ball-striking profile of past Deere champs like Glover and DeChambeau. With the flat stick no longer a liability, Bamford believes Yu’s birdie-making ceiling is tournament-winning.

Bamford grabbed Jake Knapp at 28/1, calling him “undoubtedly a star when he’s on it.” Knapp fired 61-66-68 over the final 54 holes in Detroit (-21, five shots better than anyone else in that span) and missed the playoff by one, finally answering previous Sunday fade-outs at PGA National and TPC Toronto. His effortless power is perfect for Deere Run’s wide fairways and two reachable par-5s, and he owns event reps after a learning-curve T-52 here last summer. Bamford emphasized Knapp’s ability to rattle off birdie streaks—critical when the winning target sits near -25—and sees confidence peaking in a weaker field where his ceiling skill set can dominate.

Bamford is sticking with Chris Kirk at 28/1 despite last week’s playoff loss in Detroit. Kirk gained over 3.5 strokes with the putter while ranking top-10 in SG Approach, Around-the-Green and Tee-to-Green—an all-around recipe that travels to Deere Run, a venue where hot wedges and a sub-1.7 putts-per-GIR mark are essential. FedEx Cup urgency also matters: now 67th, Kirk sees this weak-field 500-pointer as his best chance to lock up a Playoff berth before August. Course history is quietly solid—five top-30s in seven visits, including sitting 6th through 54 holes in both 2013 and 2023 on these pure Bentgrass greens. Bamford expects Kirk’s elite iron play and renewed putting confidence to translate into a victory chase.

Steve Bamford said Michael Thorbjornsen is “ready to pop” and backed him each-way at 28/1. Bamford noted the 23-year-old’s course comfort: T-17 here as an amateur in 2023 and solo 2nd last year after pouring in 27 birdies. Thorbjornsen thrives on Bentgrass agronomy (Mid-West upbringing, Stanford Bentgrass win, and two Illinois amateur titles) and can fully attack TPC Deere Run’s two driveable par-4s with his length. Recent form is sizzling—2nd at Corales, 4th at the Zurich team event, T-41 at the PGA Championship after sitting 7th through 36 holes, and 4th last week at the Rocket Mortgage where he ranked top-10 Tee-to-Green. Across the last eight weeks he ranks top-15 in the field for SG Tee-to-Green and top-10 for current form in Bamford’s model. With the winning score projected in the −20s and Thorbjornsen already proving he can reach that birdie pace, Bamford expects a maiden PGA Tour title.

Steve Bamford pegged Chris Kirk at 70/1 as the archetypal course horse. Kirk has finished 21st-12th-17th-14th-44th in five straight Detroit starts, ranking 9th in this field for total strokes gained at the Rocket and 9th Tee-to-Green. He has been inside the top 11 entering Sunday four different years, showing real win equity on the layout. Fresh off a confidence-boosting 12th at Oakmont’s U.S. Open—where he ranked top-25 SG Tee-to-Green—Kirk skipped last week’s Travelers (poor historical fit) to target a two-event run of Detroit and Deere for playoff points (currently 101st in FedEx standings). Bamford cited top-10 SG Approach numbers over the last eight weeks and familiarity with these poa-bent greens; if the putter perks up, his steady all-around profile could finally convert long-standing course comfort into a trophy.

Steve Bamford advised taking Matt Fitzpatrick at 40/1, framing the Rocket Mortgage as a perfect get-right week. Although the 2022 U.S. Open champ sits only 74th in FedEx Cup points, Bamford pointed to clear momentum: 8th at Quail Hollow’s PGA Championship and 17th at the Travelers, highlighted by a Saturday 63. Fitzpatrick led that event in traditional Ball-Striking (1st), ranked 2nd in Total Driving, and gained across every tee-to-green metric while losing just 0.5 strokes per round with the putter. Bamford expects those tee-to-green gains to travel to Detroit’s medium-length, tree-lined Ross course—similar to venues where Fitzpatrick has already won (Brookline, Harbour Town, Valderrama). With wider fairways and receptive greens, Fitzpatrick’s balanced game and improving putter offer a timely opportunity to bank critical playoff points.

Steve Bamford recommended Harry Hall at 30/1, calling the Cornishman a perfect fit for a low-scoring Ross layout. Working with Butch Harmon, Hall has recorded four top-10s in 2025—8th at The Sentry, 10th at Waialae, 6th at Colonial and 9th last week in the Travelers Signature event. He already owns a PGA Tour win (2024 ISCO Championship) on a 7,300-yard birdie fest and sits T4 on Tour in 2025 Birdie Average. Wide Detroit fairways eliminate his biggest weakness off the tee, and Bamford noted Hall’s past Midwest success: Korn Ferry wins in Kansas and Illinois on similar bent/poa greens. After finishing 31st here last year and then winning two weeks later, Bamford believes Hall’s surging putter plus elite scoring ability make him live to contend again.

Steve Bamford backed Cameron Young at 25/1, arguing the tournament sets up perfectly for his long-overdue first win. Young owns a stellar course résumé—2nd here in 2022 and 6th in 2024—with a 67.50 scoring average that ties for best among multi-year entrants. Recent results show the switch has flipped: 7th at the Truist Championship, 4th at the RBC Canadian Open and 4th at the U.S. Open in his last six starts, powered by a resurgent putter. Bamford highlighted Young’s top-8 ranks in historical SG Ball-Striking, Off-the-Tee, Around-the-Green and Tee-to-Green at Detroit plus a bomber profile that traditionally thrives on Ross’s soft, birdie-friendly par-72. With Morikawa and Cantlay out of form and Bradley on an emotional come-down, Bamford thinks the door is wide open for Young—now 17th in Ryder Cup points—to finally lift a trophy.

Steve Bamford said Ben Griffin is the most improved player on Tour this season and labelled him a must-back at 20/1 EW. Griffin already owns two PGA Tour wins in 2025 and is on a scorching run—8th at the PGA Championship, 1st at the Charles Schwab, 2nd at the Memorial and 10th at the U.S. Open in his last six starts. That surge has pushed him into the world top-20 and 8th in the Ryder Cup USA standings, giving him a clear motivational carrot. Bamford noted that Griffin’s length, accuracy and iron play have all ticked up year-over-year, turning last season’s 33rd/31st finishes at Detroit into a much higher ceiling. Add a hot putter, confidence from recent wins and familiarity with the poa-bent mix greens, and Bamford believes Griffin is the most likely winner in a field missing elite form from the shorter-priced favorites.

Steve Bamford advises an each-way flutter on Thomas Detry at 90/1, arguing the Belgian is quietly assembling the résumé needed to grab a Ryder Cup berth and a maiden Tour title. Detry followed T18 at the RBC Canadian Open with T23 at Oakmont where he ranked 5th SG: Tee-to-Green, 2nd in Ball-Striking, and top-7 in Greens-in-Reg. Those numbers echo Sepp Straka’s pre-win profile here in 2023. Detry’s limited West-Coast record—5th Kapalua, 20th & 15th Torrey, 4th Pebble, 1st TPC Scottsdale—mirrors the Poa/Bent specialists who succeed at River Highlands. Agronomy this week (Bent/Poa fairways and greens, KY bluegrass rough) suits a player raised on European cool-season grasses. Bamford notes that Detry’s third look at the course (55th last year) comes with his confidence and iron control peaking, and that his odds offer big upside in an 8-place each-way market.

Bamford grabbed Nick Taylor at 90/1 each-way (8 places) noting the Canadian’s knack for popping at triple-digit prices on sub-7,000-yard courses. Four of Taylor’s five PGA Tour titles have come on short setups with mixed Bent/Poa or pure Poa greens: Pebble Beach (2020), Oakdale (2023), TPC Scottsdale (2024) and Waialae (2025). He arrives off his best major (T23 U.S. Open) and a T13 in Canada, plus a career-best Signature finish (4th Memorial). Weekend rounds of 65-67 (-8) here last year ranked T20 for the final 36 holes, suggesting he is decoding River Highlands. Taylor sits 5th SG: Putting and top-25 SG: Total over his last eight events, a combo Bamford sees as vital with winners averaging 38% of strokes gained on the greens. The 2023 Canadian Open winner has already cashed at 100/1 and 125/1 this season; Bamford views Hartford as the next plausible shock victory spot.

Bamford recommended Viktor Hovland each-way at 28/1 (8 places, 1/5) after the Norwegian finished T6 at Oakmont while ranking 2nd in SG: Tee-to-Green and gaining strokes in every long-game category. Hovland has placed 2nd, 3rd, 3rd and 4th in his last 12 majors and finally logged his first U.S. Open top-10, mirroring the paths of Chez Reavie (2019) and Harris English (2021) who parlayed U.S. Open podiums into Travelers wins seven days later. He sits 6th on Tour in SG: Approach for 2025 and has two solid course looks (11th in 2020, 20th in 2024). Bamford highlighted Hovland’s comfort on Bent/Poa mixes and “Up-State” venues: wins at Muirfield Village and Olympia Fields plus a runner-up at Oak Hill. With confidence high and the putter the only missing link last week (-0.4 SG:P per round), Bamford believes a hot flatstick will put Hovland right in the mix on a layout demanding elite iron play and 22-plus birdies.

Steve Bamford backed Scottie Scheffler at 3/1 to win outright, citing a perfect storm of form, course fit, and historical trends. Scheffler has won 11 of his last 29 worldwide starts (38% strike-rate) and is already three-for-five since the Masters with victories at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, PGA Championship, and Memorial. He won this event in 2024 and finished fourth in 2023, ranking 2nd in cumulative SG: Tee-to-Green and 4th in Ball-Striking at TPC River Highlands. Bamford stressed Scheffler’s habit of winning in bunches (Phoenix-Arnold Palmer-Match Play-Masters in ’22; Bay Hill-Players-Heritage-Memorial-Travelers-Olympics in ’24) and noted that a successful title defense would be his fourth after Phoenix, Players, and Memorial. Ted Scott’s course knowledge, Scheffler’s elite approach play (SG: Approach No. 1 on Tour) and his ability to club down with 3-wood on tight par-4s provide the tactical edge needed on the 6,835-yard par-70. Bamford expects another birdie fest around –22 and trusts Scheffler’s balanced profile (4th OTT, 6th APP, 16th Putting here last year) to separate on the par-4s that decide this championship.

Bamford’s long-shot flyer is Harris English at 66/1 with 10-place each-way terms. English owns a 71.81 career U.S. Open scoring average—better than Spieth, Thomas, Lowry and Hatton—and has finished 4th (Winged Foot 2020), 3rd (Torrey 2021) and 8th (LACC 2023). He was also T37 at Oakmont in 2016. The four-time Tour winner arrives after a back-door T2 at the PGA Championship, satisfying Bamford’s top-8 PGA trend. His January victory at Torrey Pines showed comfort on Poa greens, and correlating form includes 1st Kapalua, 7th Riviera, 1st TPC River Highlands and 2nd TPC Boston—courses that have produced Oakmont champions Cabrera, Johnson and Furyk. Statistically English sits top-45 Driving Accuracy, top-40 Bogey Avoidance, top-30 Scrambling >30 yards, and top-20 Three-Putt Avoidance this season; he also ranked 6th Total Driving and 5th Ball-Striking at the Memorial. Bamford concluded that English’s consistent major record plus tidy short game make him “the type who sneaks onto a U.S. Open leaderboard when everyone else is bleeding shots."

At 35/1 each-way, Bamford tapped Sepp Straka as the mid-price candidate who can follow the Woodland/Clark path. Straka closed the Memorial with a field-best 8-under weekend, ranking 1st SG: Off-the-Tee, 15th Approach, 7th Tee-to-Green and 3rd Putting while also leading in traditional Total Driving and Ball-Striking. The Austrian-Bulldog owns a 2025 win at the Philadelphia Cricket Club (Poa greens) plus top-7 finishes this year at Pebble, Bay Hill and Sawgrass—tracks that demand precision into firm complexes. A Georgia alum comfortable on Poa mixes, he was 7th at the 2023 PGA (Oak Hill) and runner-up at the 2023 Open, proving major pedigree. Bamford underscored that six recent U.S. Open champions fell in the 40-80/1 range, and Straka’s low-bogey percentage, top-30 scrambling and elite three-putt avoidance mean "he will not beat himself when Oakmont bares its teeth."

Bamford staked Niemann at 30/1 (8 places), pointing to the Chilean’s sixth worldwide win last week at LIV Virginia—an 8-under 63 Sunday while staring down Rahm and DeChambeau. That was his fifth win in 12 starts and first on U.S. soil, moving him to #4 in Bamford’s predictor. Niemann finished 8th at the PGA Championship and fits the recent trend where five of the past six U.S. Open winners logged a top-8 in the prior PGA. Course-fit parallels include victories at Riviera (Genesis 2022) and TPC Old White (Greenbrier 2019), both classical tests with Bent/Poa greens and narrow sightlines similar to Oakmont’s 18-28-yard fairways. The 26-year-old ranks top-5 SG: Approach and top-10 SG: Putting on Poa over the last eight-event window, giving him the balanced profile Bamford looks for when grinders meet slick greens.

Bamford recommended Jon Rahm each-way at 12/1 with 8 places, calling him the second player capable of genuinely trading punches with Scheffler. Rahm was low amateur at Oakmont in 2016 (T23) and arrives off 8th at LIV Virginia where he ranked 3rd in GIR, 4th Total Driving and 2nd Ball-Striking on Poa-infused greens. He has finished 7th (Open), 14th (Masters) and 8th (PGA) in his last three majors and pushed Scheffler within a shot on the back nine at Quail Hollow. Bamford highlighted Rahm’s five PGA Tour wins on Bent/Poa surfaces, his #3 Datagolf ranking, and his driving distance (2nd in field last week) as perfect fits for Oakmont’s 7,372-yard par-70 with two 600-yard par 5s and the 289-yard par-3 8th. Wet spring rough further rewards Rahm’s power/fade combo, and his elite short-game (Top-10 SG: Putting last eight events) mitigates Oakmont’s 13-14 Stimpmeter greens.

Steve Bamford backed Bryson DeChambeau outright at 15/2, arguing Oakmont’s weather-soaked fairways will accentuate the Californian’s length and SG: Off-the-Tee edge (ranked #1 in the field). Bamford noted that 9 of Bryson’s 12 professional wins have come in the Midwest/Northeast on Bentgrass-Poa blends, including both of his U.S. Open titles (2020 Winged Foot, 2024 Pinehurst No.2). The defending champion also owns a 42-under aggregate across his last five U.S.-based majors (two runners-up, one win). With 5-inch non-graduated rough, 170 penal bunkers and releasing greens, Bamford expects Oakmont to become a driver-wedge contest for the handful who can carry it 320+. He framed Bryson as the "obvious rival" to short-priced favorite Scottie Scheffler and believes soft conditions Thursday–Friday give DeChambeau a head start before firmer weekend greens showcase his improved putting (12th in SG: Putting last eight starts).

Steve Bamford said he has already grabbed Sepp Straka at 60-to-1 on the Betfair Exchange (still 50-to-1 in books) and thinks Oakmont is tailor-made for the Austrian. Bamford pointed to Straka’s outrageous Memorial tune-up: first in driving accuracy while hitting 80% of fairways, ninth in total driving, eighth in ball-striking, top-10 in GIR, and—most impressively—first in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee despite ranking only middle-of-the-pack in distance. The number was powered entirely by how arrow-straight Straka was, something Bamford believes will be even more rewarded once Oakmont’s four-inch rough starts swallowing marginal misses. Straka also finished third in putting at Memorial and owns two PGA Tour titles on similar Northeast agronomy, plus a runner-up at The Open and a top-10 in the PGA Championship—checks every comp-course or major trend Bamford is tracking. He called Straka a must-add to outright cards and an under-rostered DFS pivot in the 8K salary range.

Steve Bamford recommended steering clear of Rory McIlroy this week, arguing that the four-time major winner “isn’t super sharp in the headspace right now.” Although McIlroy owns six consecutive top-15s in U.S. Opens, Bamford believes recent near-misses and off-course distractions have sapped his closing edge. Oakmont’s lightning greens demand full commitment on five-footers—an area where wavering confidence can unravel a round. Books are still dealing 14-to-1, a price Bamford sees as no bargain when Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm sit in the same range. For DFS, he advises coming in under the projected 20 % roster rate and reallocating salary to steadier, lower-owned options.

Steve Bamford identified Jon Rahm as the best value among the sub-15-to-1 contenders. Rahm’s T6 at Quail Hollow and expected strong ball-striking in the upcoming LIV Virginia event signal that his post-Masters lull is over. Bamford likes the course fit: Rahm marries elite driving with a proven ability to flight long-iron run-ups and ranks near the top in lag-putting on fast Poa. He also referenced overlapping leaderboards—Augusta, Riviera, Kapalua, Quail Hollow, Travelers, and Olympia Fields—where Rahm plus past Oakmont stars (Dustin Johnson, Angel Cabrera, Jim Furyk) have all thrived. Given those comps and Gil Hanse restoration history, Bamford puts Rahm’s win probability near 10 %, making 14-to-1 a green-light number and positioning him as a core DFS anchor at sub-$10K salaries.

Steve Bamford advised fading Scottie Scheffler in outrights and DFS despite the Texan’s historic heater. Bamford noted Scheffler’s driver has sprung a leak—he ranked just 36th in fairways hit (while 16th in distance) at Memorial and is fighting “the lefts.” Oakmont has pinched its fairways to 18–28 yards, so even Scheffler’s typical three-yard misses will bury in four-inch rough where he “literally cannot get this to the green.” Bamford thinks those bad breaks will test Scheffler’s temperament, predicting visible frustration when two-yard misses turn into doubles. He added that winning back-to-back majors is statistically rare, lowering Scheffler’s true win probability to roughly 15 % versus the 25-30 % implied at +300. Bamford is passing on Scheffler in betting cards and views him as an overpriced DFS spend.

Steve Bamford said betting Scottie Scheffler at 3-to-1 (+300) is still acceptable value for the U.S. Open. Bamford noted that UK shops have already cut Scheffler from the 5.5-to-1 price available at the PGA Championship and expects further steam that could push him below 3-to-1 by Thursday. He pointed to Scheffler’s Tour-leading strokes-gained tee-to-green profile, seven consecutive top-10 finishes, and #1 ranking in proximity from 125-175 yards—distances Oakmont will ask for repeatedly. Bamford added that Scheffler’s improved Poa-annua putting removes the lone historical concern and makes him a deserving prohibitive favorite worth locking in before the number shortens.

Bamford put a 1-point each-way ticket on Matti Schmid at 75/1, highlighting the German’s career-best form and ideal statistical profile for TPC Toronto. Schmid ranks 15th in Driving Distance this season but is even better with mid- to long-irons: top-30 in proximity from 150-175 yards and top-10 from 175-200 and 200+ yards. That dovetails with the North Course’s six par-4s over 480 yards and two long par-3s. He’s logged four PGA Tour top-10s in 2025 and pocketed $1 million for solo 2nd at Colonial two weeks ago, where he stared down Scottie Scheffler on Sunday. Although he’s 0-for-2 at the Canadian Open, those misses came on shorter, tree-tight tracks; the new, longer, 7,389-yard layout with wide fairways removes his biggest past obstacle (accuracy). Even in last week’s MC at the Memorial he gained both off-the-tee and on approach, convincing Bamford the trend remains positive.

Bamford advised a 1-point each-way flutter on Michael Thorbjornsen at 70/1 (8 places) because the rookie’s strengths line up perfectly with TPC Toronto’s generous corridors and long par-4s. Thorbjornsen averages 316 yards off the tee—fifth longest on Tour—and sits 1st in SG: Off-the-Tee over the past eight weeks. He’s also top-25 in SG: Tee-to-Green and top-15 in recent-form rankings. The Bent/Poa agronomy mirrors what he grew up on in Ohio and Massachusetts and what he thrived on while finishing 4th at the 2022 Travelers and 2nd at the 2024 John Deere. Bamford downplayed the Charles Schwab WD as simple rest after a five-week run that included a grueling PGA Championship (T41 after being 7th through 36 holes). With space to swing freely, a driveable par-4 and two reachable par-5s, Bamford believes the 23-year-old can convert his prodigious length into a first PGA Tour win or at least a place return.

Steve Bamford said Ludvig Aberg is primed to win at TPC Toronto and is worth a 3-point each-way bet at 14/1 (8 places, 1/5 odds). Bamford loves the fit between Aberg’s skill set and the new North Course: six par-4s between 481-530 yards plus two par-3s over 220 yards mean a steady diet of mid- to long-iron approaches, an area where Aberg excels. The par-70 routing begins and ends with reachable par-5s and features a driveable par-4, all of which reward his +310-yard carry distance. Wide 35-37 yard fairways mitigate Aberg’s occasional inaccuracy and let him unleash driver. Recent form backs it up—he closed the Memorial with a 66, ranking 3rd in Ball-Striking, 4th in Total Driving and 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green. The World No. 6 is comfortable on Bentgrass/Poa mixes, having already won the 2023 Omega European Masters (Bent/Poa) and the 2025 Genesis Invitational (pure Poa). Bamford added that Aberg’s pre-major rhythm last spring (finishes of 14-10-5-4 before Augusta) shows he likes to build momentum heading into big events, and capturing a first national open would add to his résumé.

Bamford took J.J. Spaun at 55/1 each-way, arguing the Californian’s statistical profile mirrors recent surprise Memorial winners. Spaun sits 4th in SG: Approach, 12th Tee-to-Green, 23rd in GIR and inside the top 10 for Total Driving on the 2025 PGA Tour season. Results back it up: 3rd Sony, 2nd Cognizant Classic, runner-up at THE PLAYERS and 6th last week at Colonial—form that quietly pushes him into Ryder Cup conversation. Bamford notes that Spaun can hit driver on every hole, a plus on the newly pinched fairways where big hitters are forced to lay back. He finished 30th here in 2023 after entering Sunday T14 before a tough pairing; with two more years of confidence and a top-25 OWGR standing, Bamford sees clear upside for a top-8 payday and potential upset win.

Steve Bamford recommended Matt Fitzpatrick each-way at 40/1, citing a clear uptick in ball-striking and the Englishman’s urgent Ryder Cup qualification push. Fitzpatrick was 5th in SG: Approach and 12th Tee-to-Green en route to a T8 at the PGA Championship, his first major top-10 since winning the 2022 U.S. Open. He posted 10th Tee-to-Green at the Truist Championship and owns elite course history at Muirfield Village—3rd (2020), 9th (2023) and 5th (2024) on the renovated layout. Having attended Northwestern, Fitzpatrick is comfortable on Midwest Bentgrass; six of his DPWT wins plus his U.S. Amateur and U.S. Open titles came on similar surfaces. Bamford believes the pinched fairways suit Fitzpatrick’s 3-wood accuracy strategy and that improved putting will convert recent SG gains into a serious run at Jack’s handshake.

Bamford backed Viktor Hovland each-way at 25/1, highlighting the Norwegian’s comfort in the Midwest and at Muirfield Village specifically: win in 2023, 3rd at the 2020 Workday Charity Open and consistent made cuts here. Hovland ranks 8th on Tour in SG: Approach for 2025 and was 11th Off-the-Tee and 5th in Total Driving at the recent PGA Championship, where he contended through 54 holes. Bamford stresses that Hovland’s short-game improvements (31st SG: Around-the-Green at Quail Hollow) mitigate past weaknesses on the course’s shaved run-offs. Bentgrass-based fairways and greens mirror Olympia Fields, where Hovland won the 2023 BMW. With confidence building and statistical peaks in the ball-striking categories that correlate with every Memorial winner since the 2021 redesign, Bamford expects Hovland to threaten the podium again.

Steve Bamford advised a win-only wager on Scottie Scheffler at 31/10, noting that the World No. 1 “wins in bunches” and has captured 10 of his last 27 starts (37% strike rate). Scheffler ranks 1st on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green, Ball-Striking and Approach over the current eight-tournament window and has finished 3rd, 3rd and 1st in his last three visits to Muirfield Village. With no Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau or Jon Rahm in this field, Bamford sees a thinner elite tier and points out that Scheffler has already successfully defended titles at the Waste Management and THE PLAYERS. Scheffler’s closing 36-hole score of –7 last week was two shots better than anyone despite a cold putter on Friday, reinforcing current form. Bamford concludes the tightened fairway landing areas and demanding Bentgrass greens reward Scheffler’s all-around dominance and make him the clear play to repeat.

Bamford fired one point each-way on Bud Cauley at 75/1, highlighting the veteran’s renaissance season off a Major Medical exemption. Cauley sits 50th in FedEx Cup after finishes of 6th at THE PLAYERS, 4th at Valspar and 5th at the Valero Texas Open; he also made last week’s PGA Championship cut. The Floridian thrives on Bermuda-based, technical par-70s and boasts a strong Texas track record—3 top-5s, 6 top-10s and 11 top-21s in 24 Lone Star starts, including 5th at TPC San Antonio this spring. Colonial’s tight driving corridors, firm bentgrass targets and predicted 20 mph gusts mirror those settings. Cauley owns three top-29 results here already and gains strokes with a sharp wedge game that should play up if scoring lands in the −10 to −14 zone. A top finish would qualify him for next week’s Memorial and keep Ryder Cup whispers alive, giving Bamford confidence the 75/1 number underrates his ceiling.

Bamford staked two points each-way on Harris English at 40/1 (8 places). English arrives off a T2 at the PGA Championship where he ranked 2nd in SG Tee-to-Green, following 12th at The Masters and 11th at the Truist. Colonial fits his resume of short-to-mid-length par-70 layouts—he owns past wins at TPC Southwind, El Camaleon and TPC River Highlands. Course history backs it up: 5th on debut (2012), runner-up (2016) and 12th last year when he led after 36 holes. Among players with multiple Colonial starts he ranks 4th in SG Total, trailing only Riley, Spieth and Scheffler. With Ryder Cup points in mind (currently 7th, just outside the auto spots), English has incentive to snag a second 2025 win. Bamford sees firm bentgrass greens and 15-25 mph weekend winds playing straight into the Georgian’s tidy short game and rolling putter, making the 40/1 each-way ticket highly attractive.

Steve Bamford slammed eight units on Scottie Scheffler at 13/5, arguing the World No. 1 is set to steam-roll his hometown event. Scheffler has captured 10 of his last 26 worldwide starts (38% win rate) and historically strings victories together—4 wins in a six-start burst during 2022 and another 4 in five starts this spring. He already owns a Texas title this season (CJ Cup Byron Nelson) and lines up at Colonial with a flawless course record of 2nd-3rd-2nd across the last three years. Bamford notes the soft field—no McIlroy, Rahm or DeChambeau—plus the extra comfort of sleeping in his own bed. A firm, windy Colonial rewards elite tee-to-green play, and Scheffler sits 1st in the field in SG Tee-to-Green and SG Approach over the last eight events. Bamford believes the combination of peak form, course horses for courses data, and emotional motivation to win an event loved by the Scheffler family makes the short price worth swallowing.

Steve Bamford urged punters to grab Patrick Reed at 70/1 each-way, citing a convergence of course history, major pedigree and motivation. Across every visit to the current Quail Hollow setup – including a runner-up finish behind Justin Thomas in the 2017 PGA – Reed ranks 2nd in this field for cumulative Strokes Gained at the venue (8th in 2018, 28th in 2019, 6th in 2021). The former Masters champ has quietly been one of the steadiest major performers since 2019, logging eight top-20s and a recent 3rd at Augusta. His PGA record shows four top-20s with two on long par-70/71 layouts (Harding Park 2020, Oak Hill 2023). Bamford likes that Reed won his maiden Tour event in North Carolina (2013 Wyndham at Sedgefield, also Champion Bermuda) and still averages 305 yards off the tee, enough to attack Quail’s three par-5s and new 530-yard 9th. He framed the play as a motivated veteran auditioning for Keegan Bradley’s Ryder Cup team; with no Tour status, Reed must make noise in majors. Ranking top-5 in the field for both SG Off-the-Tee and Putting over the last eight-event window, Reed combines the scrambling (3rd SG Around-the-Green season-to-date) and hot putter (top-10 SG Putting) that historically account for 40 % of winning strokes at Quail Hollow. Bamford concluded Reed is the best mid-tier each-way value to crash the leaderboard.

Bamford recommended an 18/1 each-way wager on Justin Thomas, noting that JT’s profile checks every Quail Hollow and PGA Championship box. Thomas already lifted the Wanamaker twice, including the 2017 edition on this very course, and his other PGA finishes include 6th at Baltusrol (2018) and 8th at Valhalla last year. He ranks 7th in career SG at Quail Hollow, gaining strokes in every category there. Thomas has won seven of his 16 PGA Tour titles on Bermudagrass, with two of those coming on Champion Bermuda or Bermuda/Poa trivialis mixes identical to this week’s greens. Recent form is peaking: 2nd at Copperhead (Bermuda), 36th at the Masters, 1st at Harbour Town and 2nd last week at Philadelphia Cricket Club, where he finished 10th OTT, 6th APP and 2nd T2G while hitting 4th-most greens. Bamford argued Thomas’ combination of 300-plus carry distance, high apex trajectory and aggressive iron play is tailor-made for Quail’s long par-4s and elevated greens. With 40 % of historical SG at Quail coming on the putting surface, Bamford likes that JT’s flatstick has heated up (top-8 Putting Average at Harbour Town). In oppressive Carolina heat, on a track he loves, and at a major that rewards his aggressive style, Bamford sees Thomas as the most under-priced elite and a core outright/each-way target.

Steve Bamford said Bryson DeChambeau is his headline bet at 11/1 each-way for the 2025 PGA Championship because Quail Hollow rewards the two things Bryson is doing best right now – driving it miles and keeping it in play. DeChambeau has ranked 1st in Total Driving in five of his last six LIV/PGA starts while still finishing no worse than 7th in SG Tee-to-Green during that stretch. Bamford pointed to Bryson’s major résumé on long classical tracks (wins at Winged Foot and Pinehurst No. 2, runner-up at Valhalla, 4th at Oak Hill and Harding Park) as proof he flourishes in PGA of America and USGA setups. Early-week rain should leave Quail Hollow soft for the first two rounds, giving the Californian an even bigger advantage with the driver. Bryson also owns two top-10s in his last two appearances at Quail Hollow and ranks 5th in cumulative SG there among players with multiple starts. Although ten of his career wins came on Bent/Poa greens, Bamford reminded readers that three of them – including the 2024 U.S. Open – were on Bermudagrass, the same Champion Bermuda the field will see this week. Combining elite recent form (4-7-2-1 across his last four events), a lengthened 7,626-yard par-71 layout that demands power, and a proven upward trend in recent PGA Championships (T4-T4-2), Bamford labeled DeChambeau a must-back outright and each-way play.

Steve Bamford labeled Scottie Scheffler the weakest of the Big Three at Quail Hollow despite the World No. 1’s five-to-one price in the UK. His primary concern is Scheffler’s complete lack of competitive reps at the course—he skipped every recent Wells Fargo and only saw the layout in match-play pods during the Presidents Cup, a format Bamford called “not quite the same.” While veteran caddie Ted Scott has Bubba Watson’s old yardage books, Bamford argued that institutional knowledge can’t replace first-hand experience when thicker 2.75-inch rough and newly lengthened par-4s demand precise sight-lines off the tee. Bamford also reminded listeners that putting matters more than usual here—winners have gained roughly 40 percent of strokes with the flat-stick—yet Scheffler ranks outside the top-100 on Champion Bermuda surfaces. With Rory owning four Quail wins and Bryson bomb-and-gouging in peak form, Bamford advised fading Scheffler in outright markets and limiting DFS exposure until the Texan proves he can solve Quail Hollow’s unique test.

Steve Bamford doubled-down on Bryson DeChambeau, saying the 2025 PGA Championship is “Bryson’s time.” Bamford ranked DeChambeau above both Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler because the LIV star is pairing his trademark 190-mph ball speed with surprising accuracy. Bamford’s eye-test from the last two LIV stops (Doral and Adelaide’s ‘Chipotle-Pak’) showed Bryson hitting fairways instead of spraying 40-plus yards offline, a combo only McIlroy can even approach. Quail Hollow’s 7,626-yard setup with thicker rough rewards that straight-bombing profile, while its Champion Bermuda/Poa triv greens neutralize streaky putters—an edge Bryson already exploited when he finished runner-up to Joaquin Niemann. Bamford expects DeChambeau to clear the new bunkers on holes 1, 9 and 17, turn par-4s into mid-iron approaches, and separate from the field if the winning score hovers around –12. He recommends betting Bryson outright and in top-5 markets and anchoring DFS line-ups around him, calling the current mid-teen odds a bargain given his form and perfect course fit.

Steve Bamford pegged Keith Mitchell as his preferred each-way flyer. Mitchell ranks ninth in strokes gained at Quail Hollow since the 2017 overhaul, which Bamford calls "remarkable for a guy priced north of 150-1." The Georgia Bulldog averages 314 yards of carry, perfect for clearing the new fairway bunkers on 1, 9 and 17, and he is currently leading the Philadelphia Cricket field while the podcast records. Mitchell’s T-20 at last year’s U.S. Open proved he can hang on major setups, and his normally streaky putter tends to pop on Champion-Bermuda—he gained 5.1 SG:P at Congaree. With some books dangling 175-1 to 200-1 and paying eight places, Bamford is locking in the each-way before the market reacts to his current form.

Steve Bamford said Sepp Straka is the perfect non-bomber pivot because Quail Hollow demands 200-plus-yard approaches and rewards hot putters. Straka sits second on TOUR in SG:Approach this season and has gained with the flat-stick in five of his last seven starts on Champion-Bermuda, including a 62 at Kapalua. Bamford admitted Straka gives up 15-20 yards off the tee to the elite bombers, but argued his pristine 4-iron and 5-iron proximity offsets that gap, especially if rain softens the greens. Straka is again gaining with his irons at Philly Cricket this week, so Bamford is grabbing 110-1 outright tickets and sprinkling top-10s, convinced "lights-out long irons and a streaky hot putter" could replicate Justin Thomas’s 2017 blueprint.

Steve Bamford flat-out faded Brooks Koepka at 45-1, saying his "major-championship relationship" with Koepka ended last season. Bamford sees no statistical "green shoots": Koepka’s LIV strokes-gained profile is middling, his approach numbers have slipped, and his normally elite driving is sporadic at best. Live footage shows him missing both start lines and windows, an awful combo with Quail Hollow’s 2.75-inch rough and new bunkers. Bamford noted that Koepka has not posted a top-15 in any start since Doral, so he refuses to burn outright money or DFS salary until a tangible uptick appears. He’ll monitor Oakmont, but for Quail Hollow the advice is simple—"just can’t do it."

Steve Bamford said Patrick Reed is the one triple-digit long-shot he is actually betting to win Quail Hollow. Bamford pulled strokes-gained data from every round since the Fazio redesign and Reed ranks No. 2 behind only Rory. Reed’s LIV numbers may be limited, but they still show added distance, an elite fairway-finding clip, and a spike in greens-in-reg. Bamford loves the Champion-Bermuda / Poa triv mix on these overseeded greens, reminding listeners Reed flat-out rolls it on this surface (top-5 putter at the 2017 PGA and +4.7 SG:P at this year’s Masters). He also thinks Ryder Cup motivation will keep Reed grinding for a top-60 OWGR leap. With exchanges dangling 130-1 and U.K. books at 90-1, Bamford has already staked an outright and plans to double in the top-5 market, calling that number "criminal for a guy who checks every box except PR."