The tout doubled down on a total under because both starters carry sub-2.60 ERAs. Rasmussen has blanked opponents in consecutive starts, while Pablo Lopez owns an even tighter 2.31 mark with a ridiculous 54-9 K-BB ratio. Minnesota has played four unders in its last five, and Tampa has cashed the under in seven of nine. With Buxton sidelined and both bullpens ranking top-10 in WHIP over the last two weeks, he projected a 3-2 game that never sniffs the listed total.

Kenny G is back on an UNDER 8 for Twins-Rays. Pablo Lopez (2.31 ERA) is riding a 4-0 team streak and just blanked Kansas City outside of a lone earned run. Drew Rasmussen has tossed back-to-back six-inning shutouts against Toronto and Miami, trimming his ERA to 2.60. Both relief corps are elite—Minnesota 3.19 (4th) and Tampa Bay 3.31 (6th). Offensively, neither club scares anyone: Twins rank 22nd in runs, Rays 17th. Trend-wise, Tampa is a staggering 19-3-3 to the under at home, while the Twins are 15-9-3 to the under on the road. With two hot starters, premium bullpens, and quiet bats in a pitcher-friendly park, Kenny expects another low-scoring grind and will be betting UNDER 8.

Cash Out Sports Picks hammered the Rays money-line, citing a six-game winning streak, a healthy lineup, and Drew Rasmussen’s shutout form (12 straight scoreless innings). Josh Lowe’s return lengthens a lineup that just posted seven runs even with Yandy Diaz resting. Minnesota remains without Byron Buxton and draws Rasmussen, whose cutter/slider mix has generated a 32 % whiff rate over the last two starts. Tampa’s bullpen owns the AL’s third-best ERA over the past month, while the Twins have gone 2-5 in their last seven road games. With Tampa 15-5 in Rasmussen’s last 20 home starts, the tout expects another Rays victory.

Malcolm Bamford echoed Rockford’s angle but extended it to the full game, taking under 8. He highlighted that Pablo Lopez has guided the Twins to four straight wins while posting a 2.31 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Rasmussen owns a 0.250 home ERA despite other Rays starters struggling in the oversized spring-training park. Both clubs are over .500 to the under this season, and Minnesota is a ridiculous 25-14-4 to the under versus right-handed pitching. With two stingy bullpens in reserve, Bamford sees little path to nine combined runs.

Dylan Rockford hammered the first-five innings under in Twins–Rays, projecting a sluggish start from both clubs. He noted Pablo Lopez has yielded only two total runs across his last 17 road innings while holding a 0.97 WHIP in that span. On the other side, Drew Rasmussen has strung together back-to-back six-scoreless outings and sports a 2.50 ERA at Tropicana Field. Rockford added that Minnesota averages just 3.59 runs per game away from Target Field and Tampa’s lineup has also been middling of late. With both bullpens ranked inside the top-10, his model spat out a 7.6 full-game total, making the first-five under his preferred play.

Eric Lindquist played the game total OVER 8 runs in Wednesday’s Twins-Rays matinee. He pointed to a steamy 90-degree forecast with humidity and a light wind blowing out that should turn Target Field into a mini launching pad. On the mound, Pablo Lopez owns stellar headline numbers but has benefited from a cupcake schedule – St. Louis, White Sox, Royals twice, Angels, Guardians, Orioles, Giants and Brewers – and is starting to leak hard contact (seven hits allowed to Kansas City his last time out). Tampa counters with Drew Rasmussen, whose 41.4 % hard-hit rate, 90.5 mph average exit velocity and recurring 8.0+ barrel percentage leave him vulnerable to Minnesota’s left-handed thump. Lindquist felt the market was anchored to an opening total of 8 despite what he called a more realistic 8.5-to-9 run environment, so he grabbed the Over at standard juice and suggested adventurous bettors could chase plus-money 8.5s.

Jordan Cooper said Joe Ryan is his preferred salary-saving pivot off Hunter Brown. Swapping Ryan for Brown frees $1,300 on DraftKings, which SimLabs shows lets you jam an Astros or Yankees stack while still producing high top-100 lineup ratings. Cooper expects Carlos Rodon to be the chalk, followed by Tyler McGill and Brown, leaving Ryan as the fourth-most-owned arm in the mid-teens—offering leverage without sacrificing ceiling. Ryan sits in Cooper’s six-pitcher pool and, in Cooper’s words, gives you "the same strikeout upside for cheaper" while avoiding the field’s construction patterns.

Cooper pointed out that Minneapolis bats could be the forgotten stack tonight. The Twins carry a 4.4 implied run total against Taj Bradley, who is garnering 12% pitching ownership despite name value. SimLabs shows Minnesota with an 8–9% optimal probability while projecting even lower field exposure, creating direct leverage on Bradley and the chalkier Astros/Yankees stacks. Cooper suggested five-man Twins builds as a path to first place in large-field GPPs.

Dave Garofolo recommended betting the Under 8.5 at ‑118 in Tuesday’s Twins–Rays game after Dimers’ predictive model spit out a 56.3% hit rate and a 2.2% expected edge across thousands of simulations. With first pitch at 7:05 PM ET, Garofolo said the projection’s combination of a better-than-coin-flip probability and a modest house edge made the total a plus-EV play for bettors looking to grind profit on a busy slate.

Malcolm Bamford hammered the full-game under 8 (and recommended first-five splits) behind two arms in peak form. Joe Ryan’s season line—2.65 ERA, 0.81 WHIP—includes one three-run blip, but he has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of four road turns, surrendering fewer than five hits in five straight. Taj Bradley has yielded exactly two earned in four of his last five while keeping the hit column under five in three of four, and he owns markedly better numbers at the Trop. Both lineups are bottom-ten in hard-hit rate and each club is better than .500 to the under on the season (Minnesota 7-of-10, Tampa 6-of-10 recent unders). Bamford projects a 2-1 finish and advised bettors to shop for any juiced 8.5 or pair first-three/first-five unders for extra angles.

Kingpin Sports played the Twins moneyline, emphasizing Joe Ryan’s 4-2 record with a 2.68 ERA and plus command. They expect him to outduel Taj Bradley (4-3, 4.61) by missing bats and avoiding free passes, giving Minnesota the edge.

Eric Lindquist targeted an Isaac Paredes home-run prop, pointing to new swing-path data that shows Paredes leads all hitters in pull percentage with a 15-degree average attack direction. That extreme pull angle pairs with his 46% hard-hit rate to maximize home-run probability whenever he faces pitchers who work on the inner half. Lindquist said the Astros’ analytical staff is well aware of Paredes’ tendencies, but the underlying metrics still give Paredes the highest barrel projection on Tuesday’s slate at his current +420 price. With the game in a power-friendly park and the opposing starter lacking strikeout stuff, Lindquist labeled the Paredes bomb a worthwhile one-unit stab despite generally avoiding short-odds homer bets.

Kenny G’s favorite angle at the Trop is under 8.5. Joe Ryan (4-2, 2.68 ERA) has surrendered only two earned runs across four of his last five outings and is backed by baseball’s fourth-best bullpen. Opposite him, 24-year-old Taj Bradley has been inconsistent (4-3, 4.61 ERA) but just limited Houston to two runs over six frames and hands off to a Rays relief unit carrying a 3.30 ERA. Neither lineup profiles as explosive: Minnesota sits 21st in runs, 20th in batting average, while Tampa is 20th in runs and 22nd in OBP despite a recent six-game win streak. Both clubs have been cash machines for totals bettors—Twins road games are 15-9-3 to the under, Rays home games a staggering 19-3-3 to the under. Kenny believes the number should be closer to 7.5 given the pitching matchup, park factors and each team’s under trends, so grabbing 8.5 is “pretty good value.” He leans slightly to the Twins’ moneyline at –120 because of Ryan’s current form but the under is his primary wager.

Just A Bet Outside advised targeting Joe Ryan’s strikeout over when he visits Tampa Bay. The Rays have the seventh-highest K-rate versus righties in the past three weeks (22.9%). Ryan sits on 67 strikeouts in 57 innings, logged 7-plus Ks in four of his last five outings, and owns a massive 38.5% K-rate against right-handed hitters. Even with a modest dip on the road (27.3%), the matchup says seven or more punch-outs are very attainable.

Eric Lindquist called Brandon Lowe’s home-run prop a must-play if books hang anything north of +300 against Joe Ryan. Lindquist acknowledged Ryan’s gaudy 30.6% K-rate but pointed out the 40.5% barrel rate he has allowed, warm 88-degree temps at first pitch, and a slight breeze out to center. Lowe should bat second versus the right-handed Ryan, giving him maximum plate appearances and the platoon edge. The combination of Ryan’s rising barrels, Tropicana’s closed-roof conditions that actually aid pull-side power, and Lowe’s own 45% hard-hit rate led Lindquist to project the bomb at +270 fair odds, creating more than a 4% edge at current market prices.

Razzle advised steering clear of Chris Paddack. His K-prop is just 3.5 (over juice), he draws +185 win odds, and he must pitch in the day’s warmest, wind-aided park against a disciplined Rays lineup. While Paddack has posted back-to-back 22-DK point outings, Razzle believes that ceiling is unreachable in this spot and prefers every other mid-range arm discussed.

Zack Littell’s consistent 90-plus pitch leash and a 4.5 K-prop (slight under) put him in play, but Razzle warned the Tampa dome will be hot with wind out, creating the slate’s best hitting environment. Twins’ bats have warmed up, so Littell is more of a leverage tournament dart rather than a core option. He carries +170 win odds, which helps, yet exposure should be limited to builds that fade Twins stacks.

Razzle said he still cannot justify paying for Chris Paddack and will instead treat Zack Littell as his final rosterable SP2. Littell carries a 4.5 strike-out prop (slight under) and roughly +170 win odds, but Razzle noted that is still a tier better than Paddack’s +185 line and far better pitching weather. While the hot Tropicana conditions boost hitters, Littell’s 90-plus pitch leash and efficiency give him a path to six innings and the all-important quality start bonus. Razzle framed the decision this way: if you are dumpster-diving for a mid-range arm, take Littell’s matchup against a Twins club that can chase and offers league-average power rather than exposing yourself to Paddack’s low K ceiling in a much tougher, wind-aided park. He’ll cap exposure because of the park factor, but Littell sneaks into his DFS player pool as the cheapest pitcher he is willing to click in single-entry builds.

Jenstad cautioned managers not to overbid on Zebby Matthews despite the hype. The 23-year-old fanned nine Royals in four frames but has yet to face more than 18 batters in any outing. Rocco Baldelli remains married to the two-times-through-the-order rule, leaving Matthews with consecutive 3- and 4-inning starts and virtually no chance at wins. Jenstad loves the arsenal—plus command and mid-90s heat—but expects a season of frustrating four-inning no-decisions that sap value in 12-team formats. He would only stash in deeper leagues where ratios and strikeouts outweigh the win category.

Scott Jenstad backed the idea of scooping Carlos Correa off waivers, saying he would have bid more than the $50 his co-manager paid. Jenstad expects Correa's batting-average floor to stabilize once his early-season nagging issues fade, reminding listeners the shortstop hit .310 last year and still projects for 15–18 homers even without stolen bases. With Byron Buxton and Matt Walner returning soon, Jenstad sees the Minnesota lineup lengthening, which should boost Correa’s RBI/run totals. In a landscape where reliable everyday shortstops are scarce, Jenstad labeled Correa a set-and-forget option and a worthy FAAB investment despite the lack of speed.

Calling the Twins the better club "across the board," Rockford grabbed Minnesota +105 and said they should actually be –120. He cited Chris Paddack’s recent surge (three ER total over his last three starts) versus Zack Littell’s ugly Trop splits (0-3, 4.33 ERA, elevated HR rate). Tampa’s offense is punching below its weight at home—just 3.85 runs per game—while Minnesota brings a top-five bullpen and, in Rockford’s opinion, the superior lineup. With Littell allowing two-plus runs in six straight and the Rays scuffling for power, he declared, “wrong team is favored, give me the Twins.”

Kenny G said his primary bet in Twins-Rays is the under 9.0, laying out a laundry list of support. Chris Paddack has strung together five solid outings (3.00 ERA during that span), and Minnesota’s bullpen has quietly chopped its season ERA to 3.00, fourth-best in MLB. On the other side, Zack Littell carries a 4.25 ERA but keeps games low scoring—his last five starts have produced combined totals of 5, 11, 7, 5 and 6 runs—and Tampa’s relief corps owns a sturdy 3.30 ERA. Offensively, neither club scares anyone: the Twins rank 18th in runs and 19th in batting average, while the Rays are 24th and 23rd in those categories. Both squads trend to the under as well—Minnesota is 15-9-2 to the under on the road, Tampa Bay 19-12-2 at home. Kenny expects a let-down from the Rays after a 13-run outburst Sunday and sees two mediocre lineups backed by quality bullpens keeping this in the 5–7 run range.

Calling it his favorite play, Lindquist bet OVER 9 runs (even money) in Twins–Rays. He expects oppressive Tampa heat inside a potentially closed dome plus two hittable starters: Zach Littell and Chris Paddack each carry identical ~16 % K-rates and Littell owns a 14.3 % barrel rate. Rays left-handed power is waking up (Yandy Diaz, Richie Palacios, Josh Lowe), while Twins bats such as Trevor Larnach and even Ty France flashed homer pop in his model. With no Coors Field on Monday’s slate, he sees this as the premier hitting environment and believes both bullpens will be busy early, driving run potential well into double digits.

Wilkerson pegged Ty France as a sneaky long-shot to homer at +575. France owns just four bombs on the season, yet Statcast shows he has two fewer homers than expected, suggesting positive regression is on deck. He also flashes a strong platoon and pitch-type fit against Zack Littell’s slider/splitter/four-seam mix. France is 2-for-6 with a homer and a .413 expected batting average off Littell in their brief history. Wilkerson argued that because France is often viewed as a tertiary bat in Minnesota, markets underrate his pop, making today’s matchup a buy-low spot.

Peterson grabbed the Twins at +108, pricing them as -111 favorites thanks to Chris Paddack’s current heater—three earned runs or fewer in nine straight starts and a 2.22 ERA over his last eight. He contrasted that with Zack Littell’s 4.25 ERA, inflated 5.42 FIP and troubling 2.1 HR/9. With the starting-pitching gap and plus money available, Peterson felt Minnesota offered significant value.