With lines still off the board, Rockford is already eyeing an over if the total opens below 9. Expected starters are left-handed bulk reliever Brant Hunter for Detroit (turning the game into a bullpen day) and Andre Pallante for St. Louis. Pallante has allowed 2-plus runs in 8 of 9 starts, and Detroit’s road offense is lively at 5.42 runs per game. Forecasts call for 15-mph wind blowing out to center at Busch Stadium. Rockford’s projection came to 8.9 runs, so he plans to fire on the first-five or full-game over as long as books hang anything in the 8–8.5 range.

Collin Whitchurch grabbed OVER 0.5 walks for Tarik Skubal at –180 despite the left-hander issuing only six free passes in 54 innings. The zag is about matchup: St. Louis ranks eighth in walk rate vs LHP (10.1 %) and boasts five hitters—Lars Nootbaar, Ivan Herrera, Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras and rookie Masyn Winn—above double-digit BB%. Whitchurch notes that three of Skubal’s six walks came in a single early-April game, so the line may be overly influenced by a tiny recent sample. He thinks the Cardinals’ patience forces at least one four-pitch pass often enough to justify the juice.

JD Bets warned listeners to leave Tarik Skubal’s strike-out market alone on Tuesday. Books are dangling 6.5 Ks at +130 and even a 7-plus ladder at +140, but JD pointed out that St. Louis owns one of the lowest team strike-out rates in baseball—only three projected hitters whiff above 30%. He walked through Skubal’s recent game log, noting that his ceiling performances came against the Angels and Red Sox, two top-five K clubs, while he managed just five punch-outs versus a low-K Royals squad. JD’s spreadsheet shows several Cardinals right-handers with strong career numbers against Skubal, making the margin razor thin. With Detroit laying –180 and a modest 7.5 total, JD concluded the line is “low for a reason” and advised bettors to skip the prop rather than force action.

Razzle called Tarik Skubal ‘arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now’ and locked him into cash and GPP builds. His 7.5 K-prop sits two full strikeouts above anyone else, and he carries –192 money-line support with only a 7.5 game total in spacious Busch Stadium. Skubal has posted double-digit Ks in three of his last four, averaging 95 pitches, and even in a 5-ER dud at Boston still produced 21.5 DK points. Razzle will eat the salary and build around him.

Steve Merrill advised laying -1.5 runs with Detroit at roughly -110 instead of paying the hefty -190 money-line. He sees a decisive pitching edge with Tarik Skubal against Erick Fedde and a shaky St. Louis bullpen. Merrill reminded listeners that Detroit still owns the best record in baseball—four more wins than any AL club and two more than any NL team—even after Monday’s 11-4 loss. Because the Tigers are on the road, they are guaranteed a ninth-inning at-bat if trailing, which statistically boosts a favorite’s ability to cover the run line. Merrill framed tonight as a classic ‘bounce-back’ for a strong team with its ace on the mound and recommended the run line to turn an expensive favorite into a pick-em-price wager.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Cardinals on the moneyline because the matchup tilts every key edge toward St. Louis. Tarik Skubal is coming off his worst start of the season (7 H, 5 ER vs Boston) and now has to attack a Cardinals lineup that is second in MLB in batting average and No. 1 at home. Over their last six games the Cards are batting .312 with 38 runs on 68 hits. Meanwhile Eric Fed has thrown 14.2 consecutive scoreless innings and St. Louis has won 13 of its last 15, the two losses both 2-1 nail-biters. Detroit’s last three wins all came by a single run, underscoring the Tigers’ razor-thin margin. Add Fed’s form and the Cards’ torrid bats to Skubal’s current wobble and the host side is the clear play.

Guy Boston said to lay the Tigers first-five run line (-0.5, around ‑135) with Tarik Skubal on the hill in St. Louis. Boston expects another dominant outing from the left-hander, noting that Skubal’s 1.97 ERA is backed by a 30% strike-out rate and .263 xwOBA allowed. He contrasted that with Eric Fetty, who has spun back-to-back scoreless starts—but against Washington and Pittsburgh—calling it prime regression bait. Fetty relies on a 53% sinker usage, and Detroit sits top-10 in run value versus sinkers while holding plus marks against his slider and cutter as well. Boston added that the Tigers have been exactly 50-50 on the F5 run line in Skubal starts but believes the matchup tips the scales: Detroit projects at least two early runs while Skubal works five innings of 0–1-run ball. He dismissed a full-game play because the Tigers bullpen has wobbled on the road, making the F5 the cleaner angle.

Donnie Rightside said Detroit is a straight-forward money-line play at –186 because Tarik Skubal has morphed into an untouchable buzz-saw. Over his last 30 days the left-hander has faced 118 batters while walking fewer than 2 % and striking out an absurd 39 %. Opponents own a microscopic .063 ISO and .231 wOBA in that span, and the underlying metrics (1.32 FIP, 1.56 xFIP) say it is no fluke. Donnie noted Skubal has logged at least eight Ks in four straight starts and still carries a 2.67 ERA for the month even after a rare five-run hiccup against Boston. The matchup sets up even better because winds are projected 15 mph out to right at 74 °F and St. Louis is loaded with left-handed bats that historically struggle against elite lefty velocity. On the other side Eric Fedde’s 3.45 ERA is propped up by a 4.84 xFIP, and Detroit’s left-handed sticks (Kerry Carpenter, Colt Keith, Riley Greene, Zach McKinstry, Trey Sweeney) all slug right-handed pitching. With Skubal on the hill and platoon advantages throughout the lineup, Rightside expects “a walk-away easy victory” for Detroit and is comfortable laying the chalk or using the Tigers as a parlay anchor.

Malcom Bamford would rather isolate Detroit’s offense than lay the steep –170 moneyline, playing the Tigers team-total OVER. He trusts Tarik Skubal to keep St. Louis quiet (0.93 WHIP on the season) but questions whether Erick Feddy’s surface numbers are fool’s gold. Under the hood Feddy carries a 4.92 xERA and 5.13 FIP, suggesting negative regression is imminent. Detroit quietly leads the NL Central by five games while averaging 5.4 runs per contest. Bamford expects bookmakers to set the TT around 4 and is happy to play 4.5, believing Detroit’s left-hand heavy lineup will expose Feddy’s smoke-and-mirrors profile.

Lonte Smith is grabbing the Cardinals around +150 despite facing Tarik Skubal. St. Louis just wrapped a 7-2 road swing and now returns to Busch Stadium looking far more cohesive than they did in April. Erick Feddy enters off a complete-game shutout of Washington and enjoys an extra-long layoff, while the Red-hot Cardinals lineup has scored in bunches during the turnaround. Smith admits Skubal’s 1.16 ERA over his last five and one walk allowed are scary, but feels the number overreacts; if Feddy can simply match zeroes early, the Cards’ bats are capable of stealing a low-scoring game at home.

Bryce Hunt recommended a one-unit play on the Tigers First Five –0.5 in St. Louis. He trusts Tarik Skubal, whose strikeout rate has rebounded above 33% in May, once again putting him on a Cy Young trajectory. Skubal’s fastball velocity remains up a tick from last year and his changeup is generating a 20% swinging-strike rate. On the other side is Eric Fedde; although Fedde rides into this start fresh off a complete-game shutout, Hunt called the performance an outlier, pointing to a sub-20% K-rate and a .310 xwOBA against. Detroit’s top-of-the-order bats are heating up—Hunt highlighted Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson’s hard-hit rates north of 45%—and the Cardinals own just a 90 wRC+ versus lefties. Given the pitching mismatch and lineup form, Hunt expects Detroit to be leading after five and is willing to lay the half run.

Drew Martin laid the -1.5 on Detroit at +100, emphasizing a massive starting-pitching gap between Tarik Scoobal and Eric Fedde. Even after a merely average outing last time out, Scoobal owns a ridiculous 42-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last four starts and fronts a first-place Tigers club sporting a +87 run differential. Fedde’s surface numbers look fine, but Martin pointed out pronounced reverse splits: hitters’ OPS is more than 100 points higher when he pitches at Busch Stadium. Offensively, St. Louis scored only three runs combined in its Saturday/Sunday games and now draws the hotter, more balanced Detroit lineup and the deeper bullpen. With every box — starter, bats, and relief — checked in Detroit’s favor, Martin prefers the run line to the pricey -165 moneyline.

The algorithm is grabbing +152 on the Cardinals to knock off the AL-leading Tigers. St. Louis (27-21) is catching nearly + odds at home even though Detroit will be on short rest after a long road swing. Records are closer than the price implies (Tigers 31-17), and the model produces a slight win probability edge for St. L. that turns the plus money into a positive-EV wager. It also projects the game to push past the 7.5 total, making a correlated over worth a sprinkle.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid the price with St. Louis. The Cardinals have won 12 of 13 and trot out Sonny Gray, whose 51 K to 12 BB line dwarfs Detroit spot starter Cater Montero’s 18 K / 11 BB. Montero was demoted to the bullpen before being forced back into the rotation and needed 21 Tigers runs to bail him out of his last two starts. St. Louis ranks top-5 in batting average and mashes at Busch, while Detroit strikes out a ton and lacks pop. With the mound mismatch plus a red-hot Cardinals lineup, he called the STL money line a must-play.

Kenny G recommended laying the short –158 with St. Louis, arguing Sonny Gray is set for a bounce-back after getting torched in Philadelphia. Gray followed his previous blow-up (vs the Mets) with seven dominant frames against Pittsburgh, and Kenny expects a similar response at home against rookie Keider Montero. St. Louis owns the seventh-highest scoring offense and ranks fourth in batting average, a profile that should pressure a Tigers bullpen that has been worked hard during the Toronto series and customs travel. Meanwhile Detroit’s lineup is potent overall but just slogged through a 3-game set that produced 9 total runs, and Gray benefits from a Cardinals pen that has shaved its ERA to 3.83. Factor in Detroit’s 16-9 trend to the over on the road (helpful run support for a moneyline favorite) and Kenny feels the price is still short given the superior starter and the Cards’ 15-6 home record.